birth rates are falling because of feminism. go ahead and look at the birth rates yourself. wherever there is a feminist mindset the birthrates fall more. wherever there is a faster onset of feminist ideology birth rates fall faster. minority populations in america do not grab a hold of feminism as much as the whites do, and thus reproduce more.
feminism reduces reproduction on multiple levels are for overlapping reasons. don't believe me? go check the grasseater movement and the mgtow mvment.
Why does the US always have to talk of war -In other words Bullys -Is it really working? Sit down and think really really hard -It has taken the USA 10 years to lose to men on Donkeys in Afghanistan! And they want to take on China -Oh well OK then! LOL
Funny that 2010 data provided by IMF, World Bank and CIA Factbook all suggested that China and Japan each has over 1/3 (over 33%) of US's GDP, and China, Japan and Germany added together already weighs A LOT more than US's GDP (not to mention China and Germany having WAY less than US's debt...). If Brazil is added further to that complex, well I don't know...
And England isn't even in the top five!
Seems Friedman is making things up along the way he talks...
America owns the future automated systems and drones will translate into civilian industry's of the future.... Automation and the lowest cost electricity will play to America's good fortune....
@ClarksonsinUSA It will take China 5 minutes to do anything the US can -If it can -Remeber China blowing a Satellite to bits -Wonder who trembled -This is all trying to fix it after bluffing as printing more dollars no longer works -Interesting to see what will happen -Militarised space -LOL
@ClarksonsinUSA China has made two very quality products -One can take out an aircraft carrier in one hit and the other can take out a Satellite -That should do for now Another brilliant QUALITY product will arrive when due -Mind you they can start to make huge horrible cars like those from Detroit!
Ho Hum. America will dominate the next 100 years..........easy. No competition. China? Joke. Europe? Joke. Japan? Joke. Africa? Joke. No place else to go my friend. Listen to George. Very bright guy.
usa economy wont ever grow 4% years, usa sucks 25% worlds resouces with just 0.2% pop. this happens because of dollar scheme, but thats over, even with all the free resouces the usa is bankrupt and cant groe more the 2% year since 1960s it over, every country has their chance to rule and then they make same mistakes and fall, war, excessive expending, arrogance, bad gov. stretching military, usa uses industry to neo colonize with banks the 3w countrys know that now, and avoid them
i think all the west has nowhere to go except down we reached the max capacity of resources production buying and were all bankrupt, the usa is using militaty to garantee the next years of susdtain profit by force and even so the usa is going down nobody wants to buy dollars for iol anymore, its over ffor the usa... they tried to screw the euro, but the germans or french wont let their chance to have worlds currency go... dollar is worthless its just time before default
@ukusapillage What people seem to forget is that the US has 300 trillion of assets it can tax at any moment. 15 trillion is nothing. China is far more indebted in percentage of GDP and they don't even have the left overs from previous year's GDP.
America is fine. Europe will have to start working more. Simple as that. If you actually read about the rest of the world, they have more problems than the West. Congratulations, you just fell for the biggest non-issue of the decade.
@TheDualEconomist The problem with your first statement is that it sounds good, only if it were true. The truth is that the U.S GDP is inflated by as much as 60%, as a result of adding "stimulus" (margin borrowing) to GDP. Along with spending and printing ( artificial liquidity) So.... if GDP is inflated by as much as 60% then it would also lead to assets inflated by the same %. What is happening in Europe and China is no different then in the U.S.
@TheDualEconomist Also you can't just say the U.S can "tax these 300 trillion in assets at any moment" 1) More taxation stifles growth by redistributing wealth from the productive sector to the unproductive sector(Govt) and 2) If you can just tax these assets at any moment, then why does the Govt tax it now in order to completely wipe out the $15 trillion + debt in one shot? Friedman is certainly accurate on may of his forecast, but wrong on the U.S economy.
a typical worthless prediction, where all positive assumptions for one view are presumed true without due justification, and all negative assumptions no matter how unsubstantiated are deemed as given for competing views. Pundits now days are absolutely worthless.
@EeyoreWhyBother are you crazy and where and what kind of scum are we going to let in our country a bunch of hooded crazy's murdering thugs from around the globe what are you fucking nuts
A repeat of the 20th Century in the 21st with Star Wars technology and Germany-Japan rearmed under the aegis of the U.S. Japan is now irradiated with the Fukushima disaster.
Friedman speaks of the US as a dominant superpower; and, of a Chinese conflict of interests with Japan. Hard to conceive of China and Russia as lightweights in military, regional, and international affairs.
The American-Mexican "Ethnostates" may be an endgame for a Chinese-Russian strategy with Canada being the Ice Wall.
the reason why canada isn't mentioned separately is because it actually isn't a real separate country, formally on maps and papers only so, canada is integrated into the U.S. in all major ways except for its internal politics. ---w w w DOT annexation DOT ca--- pretty much explains it all in detail.
only i have to strongly disagree with the notion that southwestern/central states would ever want to secede from america and join mexico, what i see more likely is that even today that we have a "spenglish america within that region of the U.S." the northern states of mexico (mexico being devided into states federally just like the U.S. already) will join the union of the U.S. just look at what has been happening to mexico, the country is getting more and more unstable and will disintegrate imo.
@CHUUMPASS Well, in his book he argues the drug profits to Mexico are big (they help the Mexican economy), and the Mexican leaders know this, so they are (or at least some of them) in line with keeping the drug trade on; and then telling the world that they are doing everything to stop it. He says that he can't imagine the drug war continuing to the 2020s, and that Mexico will become stronger (and more stable) into the 2020s, 2030s, and 2040s and beyond.
@fspo1112 (Continuing from my last comment). The inequality in Mexico is characteristic of developing, industrializing nations. Mexico is going through what Europe and the US went through in the 1800s, with increasing inequality. Also, the part about the Mexican leaders wanting the drug trade to continue was a Stratfor report, not in the book, sorry for that.
@fspo1112 okay, thank you for the additional information and insight, i appreciate it, anyways, while i certainly see that the U.S. and mexico will certainly grow together in the future (they already do so) but with the U.S. leading the process , meaning mexican states integrating and joining the or a common union (spenglish america), i envision a model much like that of puerto rico.
@CHUUMPASS Not really. For one, Puerto Rico is part of the US. Mexico is another country and its people are VERY nationalistic. Even in the horrible state that many Mexicans are in right now, 9 out of 10 wouldn't want to join the U.S. So now imagine when Mexico become a better country, it'll be 10 out of 10, plus the Mexican majority in Southwest USA may also want to join Mexico. You don't really understand these things since you are from Europe and haven't seen them here in North America.
@fspo1112 you are right that i am from europe, but that doesn't automatically root out that i cannot have a deep understanding to that situation, i actually have strong family ties and been a lot to the U.S. and i`ve interested in things like the one we are discussing here. i have seen and heard a lot from and by people that we are talking about here, and it reflected the scenario that i have stated here, at least much more likely than the other way round !
@fspo1112 plus you did not seem to understand where i was going with puerto rico, they are a no less proud people yet integrated, and that is the clue behind what i mean, the U.S. is a federation unlike any other in the world, it can be joined without having to sacrifice identity, just think the "texas and california" comparison, part of a federation yet vastly different regions with their own distinctive history,people and identity !
@fspo1112 and your "9 out of 10" is far from the truth, proven by people every day who are willing to risk their very lives just to get to the U.S. to work for a couple of dollars. while certainly not all of them are actually from mexico and mexico serving as corridor for some coming from even further down south still your numbers don't match the "fence jumper reality"
@CHUUMPASS Well I know many Mexicans go to USA. But I am talking about Mexicans in Mexico (many Mexicans in USA are still think Mexico is their country). They're not distinctive, historically (since they became part of the US) California and Texas were populated by English-speaking whites from the US. Mexico doesn't have to improve alot, it just needs to get rid of the cartels and the violence. Many go to US because there are few job opportunities in Mexico now. But 100 years is ALOT of history.
@fspo1112 seriously,U.S. states breaking away and wanting to join mexico as a nation that would mean that mexico would have to improve as a nation to a degree unprecedented in history while at the same time the U.S. getting so miserable not even worth being maintained as a nation anymore at all, which in other words to me would amount to nothing less than the end of the world as we know it. mexico and the U.S. already share what i`d call combined regions, e.g. san diego-tijuana / elpaso-c.juarez
@CHUUMPASS San Diego-Tijuana, etc. aren't really integrated because there's a big, long wall dividing the two cities. Also, Mexico is even more diverse and distinct because in south Mexico most of the people are Indians or mestizo (mixed race European-Indian), while the north is mostly white or mestizo. And yet, north and south feel equally as Mexican. I'm not gonna argue further, you have your point of view and I have mine. But I think in history, expect the unexpected (like Friedman says).
@fspo1112 well yes, you got that right, let`s just agree to disagree, the factors that i named just indicate a tendency which clearly is what i expect to happen, you are also right with saying "expect the unexpected" because what we do ain't more than mere "crystal balling" at the moment. the CIA for that matter has mexico listed as "increasingly unstable" with tendency to a failed state, and to downplay that by saying "they don't have to improve a lot" is a bit too far off, anyways, greetings.
@CHUUMPASS lol If Mexico fell to the Narcos so what? It'll only mean the highest memebrs of the government would be narco "complicit" (the lower level are mostly practically narco "complicit"). I don't remember clearly, but I think that Freidman said (don't know if in his book or website) that a narco-state for Mexico would be little different than current Mexico. But let's just wait and see what happens in future! (If you ever get Friedman's book, read pages 1 to 13, they are most revealing.)
@fspo1112 thank you, i think i will get the book, and i understand your argument as far as mexico failing as state and falling to "the narcos" only you have seemed to totally left out of the equation that america has an increasing need to defend it`s borders, and it`s people and it certainly isn't going to simply bystand and let something like that happen considering that even today on the american side people are in danger because of "bullets flying into their half of the border"
@fspo1112 which means, if mexico as a legtimate state fails (which the tendency is) and can't ensure territorial obligations, then the matters will be taken into the hands of those who are concerned with it (which in this case clearly is the U.S.) meaning in short,the parallel problems of the historically weak central state and the growing need of America to protect it's border, people, and trade means that Mexico will lose the territory it can't control. simply as that.
@CHUUMPASS The current US-Mexico border is one of the best because it has a natural border: Rio Grande. Deeper in Mexico will mean less natural borders and more fences (which US tax payers will not be happy about). It also means very high border instability and volatility (as Chechnya in Russia). USA will not want that instability/inner problems, it will be focused on WORLD events dealing with Turkish-Japanese power. It will do as it has done before: ignore Mexican problems (in the LONG RUN).
@fspo1112 well that only is the case with the border region of mexico and texas, the rio grande though has many rather shallow "mild" sections of its flow that can be (and are) easily overcome for illegal crossings, the further you "push down south" from northern mexico say via possible annexation, the smaller a possible border would actually become as mexico slims in width to the south, also the baja california already provides for a perfect future "cut off main land" scenario,
@fspo1112 makes sense from that certain perspective ( i haven't read his book yet) so thanks for that little insight, the question with regard to mexico though clearly is, that if like you say is stated in the book, that mexico in some shape of form is actually benefiting from the drug trade which they claim to fight, then what kind of "stable growth" could that provide for the society to prosper on!? while it certainly "helps" some, "drug business" only caters the very worst elements of society
@fspo1112 certainly the kind of element that no serious modern government, a democratic and dynamic open society would want to thrive on, and letting the mexican state benefiting from drug trade(mostly done cross border at great expense of america)is certainly nothing that america will let them get away with in the mid to long run. those things are exhausting to many people inside mexico thus if this is sustained on behalf of authorities you have all the ingredients for what i have stated above
@CHUUMPASS Friedman says that the drug trade has economic benefits, but it has the possibility of ripping society apart. I think that people like Mexico's president, for example, actually do fight the drug war, but lower-level government officials don't. Plus Mexico has a startegy (according to Stratfor), which is letting the Sinaloa Cartel grow more powerful while the gov't takes out other cartels (so they don't have to fight all the cartels). It's risky, and I still don't know all the details.
@fspo1112 it is correct that the mexican society contiunes to be only devided by/in the process that`s been going on in mexico internally, the protest marches in large numbers could be viewed as first indicators to that. back to future scenarios, like i said, puerto rico is a good example, it is still a "common wealth" and not an official state yet, but it shows that there already is a "spenglish america" that could only be helpful in the future with mexican regions wanting to break away.
@CHUUMPASS The drug war should see an end in sight in this decade according to Friedman. Also, the US can't do really do anything to Mexico other than place a border wall or economic sanctions, and to top it off, the lower-level government are corrupt (so they're not a serious modern democracy). Mexican society is open, but the average Mexican can only suspect that the drug trade may be supported by some in their government (we already see major anti-drug war protests by Mexico's citizenry).
america still holds enormous advances and thanks to that "uniquely american thing" (i don't know how to call it, other than spirit maybe) that even captures people from all over the planet, america will remain dominant, whereas china is what is known as "short selling" on wall street, nobody from outside truly wants to live there, china is used for certain investments to get big profit margins over a certain period (which has already peaked) for mostly low value/skill mass marked products.
i generally don`t think much of "crystal balling" but if mr. friedman here provides very solid and rational reasoning as to how the future could unfold and it definitely makes sense to me as say, a general evaluation/expectation. plus to all the trolls that can be found under anything that has to do with america, bashing america and singing hail to china, "communist drones" like one is called below here, i think that is just about correct !!!
It's a brave new world, ain't it?!!! What color bottle should we use for our test tube incubations? I wonder how our babies' brain cells are being altered now that we are no longer incubated in nature. Environments that were working agriculturally photosynthesized chi zones was our natural state. Do you think the rise in depression and psychosis, and attention deficit disorders is connected to the change?
U.S and Mexico at war? I'd love to see that. We would wipe the floor with them in like 5 minutes. They don't even have nukes and have never left outer space.
Brilliant man {and right.} I saw him recently on C-Span talking about his latest book "The Next Decade" which I'm currently reading. Listen to him. Listen to what he says. It makes sense. Throw out the emotion and your own biases. He's right. Who's going to displace America? China? You're kidding. China has to contend with a population of over 1.3 billion which is a huge albatross around it's neck.
''I think China's economy will surpass the US economy in 10 years.''
Most ridiculous statement.
US GDP: 14.7 trillion
China GDP: 5.7 Trillion
That means that China has to grow 300% to break even with the US.
If China has 10% annual GDP growth (which it will NEVER maintain), and the US 3% annual GDP growth, thats means that after 40 years China will break even with the US...
@OlderG0ds LOL, I bet your eyes were all wet when you wrote your last comment.
You know what that means?
I was on target. Doritos, couch, Fox News. Thats Ok. You'll be alright. I don't mind you fat ass, you sound like a decent guy. All you need to do is to pull your head out of your fat ass, then THINK before you call jerks like GF smart. Yeah, their are smart b/c they find stupid people to sell their shit. Now go back to you bag of chips.
@Xwaxtaxper I love it when fuckers like you start the sentence with "I never said". That means you where fuckin wrong. You don't know what the hell you are talking. If he IS NOT RIGHT, that means he IS AN IDIOT LIKE YOU, MORON.
@Xwaxtaxper Marx never opted for a worldwide domination of communism. He argued that violent class struggle is inevitable in the capitalist model of societies, and the overthrow of the aristocracy by the proletariat is an eventuality of time. Go read his Communist Manifesto.
China and India are political rivals, but in economic terms they are partners, much like the relationship between China and US.
Don't jump into a debate if you don't know what you are talking about.
Wouldnt it be more practical to tap geo-thermal energy than space solar? Oil companies are routinely drilling to 6km now. Surely it would be easier than overcoming payload, maitinence, and transmission issues associated with space? Meteorites, for eg. would be a huge challenge, as the plan requires enormous surface area.
Wouldnt it be more practical to tap geo-thermal energy than space solar? Oil companies are routinely drilling to 6km now. Surely it would be easier than overcoming payload, maitinence, and transmission issues associated with space?
@Xwaxtaxper 21st century belongs to Asia with China and India, enough said. Communist never opt for a global domination, you are in dire need of a history and Poli-sci lesson. Get out of your American Cold War Red Scare brainwashing paranoia and see the world.
@devilhunterred That's not necessarily true. Post World War II, The People's Republic of China and the USSR wished to spread Communism to parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
The guy does get one thing wrong though. States along the south western united states especially Texas and Arizona would rather a nuclear apocalypse happen than join Mexico.
sure anybody who says something positive about america is a jock and an idiot. There are a million videos on youtube bashing america maybe you might feel more at home watching one of those.
@mampre idiot? He's one of the smartest people alive and the leading expert on geopolitics. He'd make you look like a drooling retard (wouldn't be hard though).
What I would like to see is a discussion between Friedman and Fareed Zakaria (Post-American World) ...certainly Zakaria's arguments seem much more reasonable, and currently the U.S. looks like it will decline even faster than it was thought before...there is no other way than to share power in the future for the USA.
@on91 I think the USA will find that the same things which enabled them to become the greatest empire thus far, will also be the same things that cause them to fall faster than any other empire to date.
What does Population density have to do with economy growth? Nothing! Only population growth has to do with this, because according to Mr. Friedman Canada and Mongolia would have to have the fastest growing economies in the Worlds...and his views about China are complete Nonsense, sry, but China's economy isn't just based on "cheap exports", but also on an ever faster-growing domestic market. And as opposed to the USA, China exports more than it Imports, while the USA has a huge trade deficit.
Wow....this guy is so wrong in so many ways I don't even know where to begin. First of all, China is now the second largest economy in the world, already surpassed Japan. Second of all, Japan invaded China for the natural resources in Manduria as well as to fulfill its imperialist dream of Asia domination. Go read up what Mukden Incident is. This guy needs a serious lecture on Modern History 101.
@devilhunterred When he gave this lecture, Japan was still ranked as second. Your second point as no relevance. I don't hear any intelligent arguments from you refuting any of his points.
Dream on. In the last decades the US have lost the main part of their production industry which could no longer compete with Asia and Europe. And in addition to this problem one fine day the brain drain of foreign scientists will no longer work and so won't the drain of loaned foreign money with which the average Americans finance their "way of living".
what friedman does not realize is that china is building cities that are empty which could easily provide shelter for the millions of people living in the country side. they are buying mines, making international deals with everyone, have gold reserves, and a population that could consume a little more which would make up some of the difference from the lost of the U.S. consumer.
@1samothrace77: But their government would have to allow their people to be affluent consumers, and I don't think Red China can do that, not without losing political control.
@Teranex Well, a fact that you appears to ignore is that there is no such country as EU- we are (I'm EU citizen) a group of countries that have some common interests, but when problems occur (like the financial crisis) everyone is carryning about himself...
@panduzepe44 You appear to ignore that mister Friedman has written that he cant imagine that any nation could surpass USA in the next 100 year. While it is very much possible that the EU will become a country within that time. And if everyone cared only for himself, then Greece would have already gone bankrupt.
No, it is not- Portugal has very few common interest with Lithuania, and Germany has a lot of opposite interests to, for example, France or Poland. Speaking about Greece- THE ONLY reason it hasn't gone bankrupt was taking care of German banks by the Germans, the France banks by France etc- you see, the Greek owned (and still own) them money. To much to let them go bankrupt. (I have a M. in finances and accounting, I know what I'm writing about)
@panduzepe44 There is consent amongst European nations which are part of the EU, that they can achieve their common interests only by uniting their political power. Thats is the only interest any EU nation needs, no matter their interest.
"To much to let them go bankrupt"-This never was about the Greek dept but about the euro, was it just for the Greeks those nations wouldn't care for what becomes of them. And euro is a common interest of all EU nations, again proving my point.
@Teranex oh my, u r wrong in so many places I don't even know where shall I start. And even if I knew, I wouldn't since there is definitely not enough space in the commentary box. Look, I'm can not convince u, but let me show u some (not all) arguments: if u want, u can read this article, is written not by Fridman himself but by his employee. stratfor.com/weekly/20101011_natos_lack_strategic_concept
@Teranex A recent paper published by Virginia Tech University actually stated that China will surpass US as the world's #1 technological and economic superpower in 50 years' time. Who's more credible, a single individual or an entire university.......hmmmm........
@devilhunterred Again, why don't you try challenging one of his arguments instead of resorting to ad hominem tactics and obscure references? Even if China's economy is bigger than America's (China has been the world's biggest economy for the majority of history), it's individual GNP is still far lower, and wealth inequality is massive. Both of these could lead to instability.
@Arcadius15 It's true that GDP per capita is lower in China than in the US, but you also forget that China also has a much lower costs of living. It only costs on average $5 USD a day to live. Since 1970s China has also lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty, the largest single economic accomplishment ever in human history. Population poverty rate of China today is only 2.4% according to the standards of World Bank, while US' is more than twice of China's.
@devilhunterred If that's true then how do you begin to explain the absolutely massive gaps in living standards, education, and modernization within the poorer interior provinces? All reasonable and unbias sources put China's poverty rate at much closer to 10% if not much higher. I don't see many people in the U.S. who are living in destitute, third world conditions, and I've seen entire towns consisting of rural peasants.
@Arcadius15 The CIA puts the Chinese population poverty rate at 2.4%. Go check out their CIA World Factbook. May I ask, is the CIA a biased and unreasonable source? Both the current population poverty rate and unemployment rate of US is at least twice as much as China's.
@devilhunterred It is well known that exact numbers on the poverty level are difficult to calculate because China is not a transparent society. I find it hard to believe that several hundred million peasant farmers would agree with your notion that there's virtually no poverty in China. That number is highly misleading. Poverty in China means a third world existence in the countryside while poverty in the U.S. is helped by social services and welfare.
@Arcadius15 Obscure references? LOL? It's a common fact that Japan invaded China purely out of imperialism. It attacked China to obtain more natural resources and to establish an Empire of the Sun. It wasn't to secure their investments in China. Anyone who has remotely came across 20th century history would know this, but apparently you and this idiot in the video do not. Today US owes China more than $900 billion USD in debt. I would love to see your argument on how US can get out of this one.
@devilhunterred If you read his book...he openly discusses the relationship between China and Japan...and I never once denied their history. The debt issue is simple: China needs the U.S. economy just as much as we need them buying our debt. If the U.S. economy goes, China looses its chief trading partner and consumer market, and currently China's government operates under strong performance legitimacy - if economic growth slows or ceases, they're going to quickly lose support.
@Arcadius15 Mr. Friedman here is just a sad Yank trapped in the his own wishful thinking that US can still maintain its #1 dominance of the world, while all empirical evidence concludes that the power of balance of the 21st century has undeniably shifted towards the Far East, namely China and the remote possibility of India. No one is arguing that China is a perfect country and it has no problems, but as of now the only way China can go is up, while US can only decline. Golden age of US is gone.
@devilhunterred Only way China can go is up? Hardly, there's significant reason to believe that it will implode upon itself. China's demographics are a time bomb: it will soon have the largest population of unworking seniors in the world with an undersized working class to care for it. In case it's escaped you, China has virtually no social safety net system to care for these people. Combine this with massive inequalities and their economy will have its legs kicked out.
@devilhunterred Furthermore, have you even seen the data on China's corruption? It's ranked 72 out of 179 countries, and it highly ingrained in their government. Business loans are issued almost entirely out of quanxi connections or corrupt deals rather than sound business, and as a result nearly a quarter of the nation's economy is made up of non-performing loans. Currently China can grow its way out of this bad debt, but the moment growth stops, it will catch up.
@Arcadius15 Have you seen how much China has been stamping out corruption? I have lived in China in the mid 1990s, and I have returned there in the 2000s, and I can tell from personal experience that corruption had already improved vastly. In fact minimizing corruption is currently on the CCP's top agenda. And for the past 20 years China's growth has not stopped once. In fact when the entire world was experiencing recession in 2008, China was the only country with a constant 10% growth.
@devilhunterred Of course the CCP is going to claim to be attacking corruption - it wants to keep the confidence of the population. However a study by the Carnegie endowment showed that in late 2006 nearly a quarter of the population surveyed ranked their local officals as corrupt with 12 percent reporting them as severely corrupt. Transparency international ranks China's corruption perception as 3.4 on a 1-10 scale (lower being more corrupt).
@devilhunterred Much like Japan before its lost decade, China is completely dependent upon foreign markets and investment. Foreign investment accounts for half of the Chinese economy while consumption at home accounts for about 36 percent (the lowest in the world). Virtually all of this foreign investment is in manufacturing, and when the population begins to shrink China's edge in cheap labor will wane. From there the race to the bottom will look elsewhere.
@Arcadius15 China won't always be relying on cheap labor and manufacturing to constitute the bulk of its GDP. Eventually it will advance from manufacturing to developing its own technologies and brand names, which it is actively doing now. Chinese R&D budget is now higher than US'. Millions of college and university graduates emerge from China each year, while US only has a couple hundred of thousands. China is acquiring capital, while US is getting rid of them because of budget cuts.
@devilhunterred It may be training its own engineers and technicians but it certainly isn't going to attract long-term immigration and the collective minds and innovation from around the world. In a globalized economy, it's necessary to attract individuals to your universities and research groups from many countries, while China is almost completely reliant on its own population. Works fine when you're over a billion people, but that won't last much longer.
@Arcadius15 China's growth has been steady and locked between 9-15% for over 20 years, and with the way it's running its economy, building and improving on infrastructures, stamping out corruption, attracting foreign investments, actively investing in Africa and South America, obtaining natural and strategic resources, building up its foreign reserves, etc, there is absolutely no reason to believe that China's growth would stop any time soon in the forseeable future.
@devilhunterred Oh but there is. No country in history has ever managed to keep their economy growing at that rate indefinitely, and sooner or later the massive social problems that China faces are going to catch up. As I mentioned before, the one child policy has left China's demographics in shambles, there are massive wealth gaps between the cities and the interior, the environment is degrading rapidly, and nearly a quarter of the economy is made up of non-performing loans.
@devilhunterred So you mean that corrupt quanxi based business deals, building 'ghose cities' (like Ordos), supporting brutal governments in Africa with arms sales in order to obtain oil, and becoming completely dependent upon foreign markets is going to create an economy which will rule the world? Nonsense. While China will undoubtedly be a big player in the next century, it will never lead the world.
@devilhunterred For every $20 item manufactured in China, only about 35 cents actually goes into the Chinese economy, the vast majority is pocketed by the international corporations which invest in those factories, many of which are owned by Americans. As Dong Tao put it, the biggest beneficiary of this system is the U.S. Their companies get cheaper manufacturing and its citizens cheaper goods.
@Arcadius15 I would like to see the source of this figure. Besides, China isn't doing this simply for the profit. It's also about technology convergence. When foreign firms are setting up factories in China to make iPod, iPhone, Macbooks, laptops, military equipments, batteries, etc, the knowledge and technology of how to build them is also transfered to the Chinese. This knowledge will be much more valuable and helpful to China in the long run in their technological advancement.
@devilhunterred Even so, technological transference is not the same thing as innovation. Even if China is investing heavily into developing its technological prowess, it will at best compete with the existing heavy hitters such as Japan, Korea, the EU and the U.S.
@Arcadius15 China has surpassed the United States as the world's top technology exporter. China is also currently the world's 3rd largest innovator and is set to lead global innovation by 2012 by NYT. China's technological standing also surpassed the United States to become the top in the world in worldwide technological competitiveness. China is also currently considered the world leader in green technology. Because of this, China predicted to become a technology and innovation superpower.
@devilhunterred Nice copy and paste, is that the best you can do you pathetic CCP drone?
The citations for China leading the world in technology is based on ONE report. Fortunately, we are still the largest exporter of technology and innovation products in the world.
@Xwaxtaxper Pax Americana was only relevant after WWII when US was trying to use it as a propaganda tool against USSR and Communism. Unfortunately for you in the 21st century it's painfully obvious that America's dominant position has been waning. 21st century belongs to Asia.
I've never heard this many bullshit in my life.OK it's obvious this guy is patriot US is perfect doesn't have any defects when all the other countries have countless defects and that's why US will never fall.Yeah right.
This guy probably thinks he is Nostradamus ,what he says doesn't mean nothing.There are books that predict the fall of US,and they were written by americans too.
We will live and we will see.Nothing is certain today.
So being the most in debt country in the history of the world is good? We have a service based economy...the last great power that had a service economy was Holland...where are they today? Also let's not forget 40% of our industrial output comes from our massive defense corporations which only sell their products to who...the U.S. government. 80% of our GDP comes from U.S. consumer spending. The Western half of the U.S. has a water crisis on their hands and yet everything is fine...please...
@PremiumWater I'm not American, but I think you're missing the point. There's a large difference between a country having problems and it being on the verge of collapse. Don't forget, every European Empire had deep, endemic domestic problems as well, but they ruled most of the known the world for the greater part of the 19th century.
Lol , this "expert" is silly , USA because of immigration is becoming a thirld world country and yet he says it's good because it makes population grows...
3rd world? You haven't ever been to US have you? It's the definition of 1st world country. Immigration is what this country is all about whether people like it or not, always has been.
America is Rome..................................And shall last a thousand years,thats a good thing for Europe.....
Why????? Because when they lose control of their nations, due to a sub replacement birthrate OF NATIVE Euros it gives them some where to flee to......
But by 1984 I think, the economy finally got back on its feet, which led to Reagan's reelection. The nation brushed aside the '87 crash, which didn't last long enough to do any serious damage. Then came the 1990-1992 recession, which led to Bush 41's defeat in 11/4/92. 1993-2000 saw the largest peacetime economi growth in the history of the nation thanks to President Clinton. So obviously the after effects of Great Recession of 2008-2009 will eventually rub off this country perhaps by 2020 or so
The USA has been in several economic crises before, such as the financial chaos of the 1970s, the short 1987 stock market crash, and the dot.com bubble burst that led to the recession of 2001-2002. This proves that Dr. Friedman could be correct about a 20 or 30 year economic cycle in this country. After the Crash of 1929, the US, with the help of WW2, experienced an unprecedented post-war economic boom in the 1950s and the 1960s. Then came the financial chaos of the 1970s.
@tcave360 Then US are in big trouble. WW3 is far so the only solution is to start a war perhaps with Iran.US economy always bloomed after a war.But today is different.The society is much more advanced the Chinese and Indians are becoming stronger and stronger and will eventually surpass USA.
birth rates are falling because of feminism. go ahead and look at the birth rates yourself. wherever there is a feminist mindset the birthrates fall more. wherever there is a faster onset of feminist ideology birth rates fall faster. minority populations in america do not grab a hold of feminism as much as the whites do, and thus reproduce more.
feminism reduces reproduction on multiple levels are for overlapping reasons. don't believe me? go check the grasseater movement and the mgtow mvment.
greycloud24 1 day ago
Why does the US always have to talk of war -In other words Bullys -Is it really working? Sit down and think really really hard -It has taken the USA 10 years to lose to men on Donkeys in Afghanistan! And they want to take on China -Oh well OK then! LOL
gonedoolali 1 month ago
Funny that 2010 data provided by IMF, World Bank and CIA Factbook all suggested that China and Japan each has over 1/3 (over 33%) of US's GDP, and China, Japan and Germany added together already weighs A LOT more than US's GDP (not to mention China and Germany having WAY less than US's debt...). If Brazil is added further to that complex, well I don't know...
And England isn't even in the top five!
Seems Friedman is making things up along the way he talks...
gewangew 1 month ago
He looks like George Bush. Definitely a proud American. God bless him!
tekal85 3 months ago
America owns the future automated systems and drones will translate into civilian industry's of the future.... Automation and the lowest cost electricity will play to America's good fortune....
ClarksonsinUSA 3 months ago
@ClarksonsinUSA It will take China 5 minutes to do anything the US can -If it can -Remeber China blowing a Satellite to bits -Wonder who trembled -This is all trying to fix it after bluffing as printing more dollars no longer works -Interesting to see what will happen -Militarised space -LOL
gonedoolali 1 month ago
@gonedoolali how about make a quality product...
ClarksonsinUSA 1 month ago
@ClarksonsinUSA China has made two very quality products -One can take out an aircraft carrier in one hit and the other can take out a Satellite -That should do for now Another brilliant QUALITY product will arrive when due -Mind you they can start to make huge horrible cars like those from Detroit!
gonedoolali 1 month ago
Ho Hum. America will dominate the next 100 years..........easy. No competition. China? Joke. Europe? Joke. Japan? Joke. Africa? Joke. No place else to go my friend. Listen to George. Very bright guy.
kentucy9999 4 months ago
usa economy wont ever grow 4% years, usa sucks 25% worlds resouces with just 0.2% pop. this happens because of dollar scheme, but thats over, even with all the free resouces the usa is bankrupt and cant groe more the 2% year since 1960s it over, every country has their chance to rule and then they make same mistakes and fall, war, excessive expending, arrogance, bad gov. stretching military, usa uses industry to neo colonize with banks the 3w countrys know that now, and avoid them
ukusapillage 4 months ago
i think all the west has nowhere to go except down we reached the max capacity of resources production buying and were all bankrupt, the usa is using militaty to garantee the next years of susdtain profit by force and even so the usa is going down nobody wants to buy dollars for iol anymore, its over ffor the usa... they tried to screw the euro, but the germans or french wont let their chance to have worlds currency go... dollar is worthless its just time before default
ukusapillage 4 months ago
@ukusapillage What people seem to forget is that the US has 300 trillion of assets it can tax at any moment. 15 trillion is nothing. China is far more indebted in percentage of GDP and they don't even have the left overs from previous year's GDP.
America is fine. Europe will have to start working more. Simple as that. If you actually read about the rest of the world, they have more problems than the West. Congratulations, you just fell for the biggest non-issue of the decade.
TheDualEconomist 3 months ago
@TheDualEconomist The problem with your first statement is that it sounds good, only if it were true. The truth is that the U.S GDP is inflated by as much as 60%, as a result of adding "stimulus" (margin borrowing) to GDP. Along with spending and printing ( artificial liquidity) So.... if GDP is inflated by as much as 60% then it would also lead to assets inflated by the same %. What is happening in Europe and China is no different then in the U.S.
Aeros802 2 months ago
@TheDualEconomist Also you can't just say the U.S can "tax these 300 trillion in assets at any moment" 1) More taxation stifles growth by redistributing wealth from the productive sector to the unproductive sector(Govt) and 2) If you can just tax these assets at any moment, then why does the Govt tax it now in order to completely wipe out the $15 trillion + debt in one shot? Friedman is certainly accurate on may of his forecast, but wrong on the U.S economy.
Aeros802 2 months ago
a typical worthless prediction, where all positive assumptions for one view are presumed true without due justification, and all negative assumptions no matter how unsubstantiated are deemed as given for competing views. Pundits now days are absolutely worthless.
maddogy4645 4 months ago
@maddogy4645 okay I hear what you're trying to say.
But I don't think you read or heard alot of George Friedman.
He actually doesn't say what most other scholars say when it comes to the 21st century.
Just look up some of his vids. Or wasn't that the point you were trying to make?
TOTCD 4 months ago
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Oosh this came true, you see the papers? this guy is good, 2 YEARS EARLY NICE!
ooshgasm 4 months ago
Oosh this came true, you see the papers? this guy is good
ooshgasm 4 months ago
population is going down thanks to cancer virus in vaccines that are being administered all over the world eugenics LOOK IT UP
phliperphil 5 months ago
His definition of Hegemony, is correct for the U.S.
While one can see fractures within China and Russia which could end up causing those countries break up, one can see similar fractures in the U.S.
I think Canada should aim for a population of 100 million.
EeyoreWhyBother 5 months ago
@EeyoreWhyBother are you crazy and where and what kind of scum are we going to let in our country a bunch of hooded crazy's murdering thugs from around the globe what are you fucking nuts
phliperphil 5 months ago
A repeat of the 20th Century in the 21st with Star Wars technology and Germany-Japan rearmed under the aegis of the U.S. Japan is now irradiated with the Fukushima disaster.
Friedman speaks of the US as a dominant superpower; and, of a Chinese conflict of interests with Japan. Hard to conceive of China and Russia as lightweights in military, regional, and international affairs.
The American-Mexican "Ethnostates" may be an endgame for a Chinese-Russian strategy with Canada being the Ice Wall.
spiritech999 5 months ago
Does everyone from Texas look like Bush ??
MrKanaad 7 months ago
Poor Canada
TheAwakenedHeretic 8 months ago
the reason why canada isn't mentioned separately is because it actually isn't a real separate country, formally on maps and papers only so, canada is integrated into the U.S. in all major ways except for its internal politics. ---w w w DOT annexation DOT ca--- pretty much explains it all in detail.
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
only i have to strongly disagree with the notion that southwestern/central states would ever want to secede from america and join mexico, what i see more likely is that even today that we have a "spenglish america within that region of the U.S." the northern states of mexico (mexico being devided into states federally just like the U.S. already) will join the union of the U.S. just look at what has been happening to mexico, the country is getting more and more unstable and will disintegrate imo.
CHUUMPASS 9 months ago
@CHUUMPASS Well, in his book he argues the drug profits to Mexico are big (they help the Mexican economy), and the Mexican leaders know this, so they are (or at least some of them) in line with keeping the drug trade on; and then telling the world that they are doing everything to stop it. He says that he can't imagine the drug war continuing to the 2020s, and that Mexico will become stronger (and more stable) into the 2020s, 2030s, and 2040s and beyond.
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 (Continuing from my last comment). The inequality in Mexico is characteristic of developing, industrializing nations. Mexico is going through what Europe and the US went through in the 1800s, with increasing inequality. Also, the part about the Mexican leaders wanting the drug trade to continue was a Stratfor report, not in the book, sorry for that.
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 okay, thank you for the additional information and insight, i appreciate it, anyways, while i certainly see that the U.S. and mexico will certainly grow together in the future (they already do so) but with the U.S. leading the process , meaning mexican states integrating and joining the or a common union (spenglish america), i envision a model much like that of puerto rico.
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS Not really. For one, Puerto Rico is part of the US. Mexico is another country and its people are VERY nationalistic. Even in the horrible state that many Mexicans are in right now, 9 out of 10 wouldn't want to join the U.S. So now imagine when Mexico become a better country, it'll be 10 out of 10, plus the Mexican majority in Southwest USA may also want to join Mexico. You don't really understand these things since you are from Europe and haven't seen them here in North America.
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 you are right that i am from europe, but that doesn't automatically root out that i cannot have a deep understanding to that situation, i actually have strong family ties and been a lot to the U.S. and i`ve interested in things like the one we are discussing here. i have seen and heard a lot from and by people that we are talking about here, and it reflected the scenario that i have stated here, at least much more likely than the other way round !
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@fspo1112 plus you did not seem to understand where i was going with puerto rico, they are a no less proud people yet integrated, and that is the clue behind what i mean, the U.S. is a federation unlike any other in the world, it can be joined without having to sacrifice identity, just think the "texas and california" comparison, part of a federation yet vastly different regions with their own distinctive history,people and identity !
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@fspo1112 and your "9 out of 10" is far from the truth, proven by people every day who are willing to risk their very lives just to get to the U.S. to work for a couple of dollars. while certainly not all of them are actually from mexico and mexico serving as corridor for some coming from even further down south still your numbers don't match the "fence jumper reality"
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS Well I know many Mexicans go to USA. But I am talking about Mexicans in Mexico (many Mexicans in USA are still think Mexico is their country). They're not distinctive, historically (since they became part of the US) California and Texas were populated by English-speaking whites from the US. Mexico doesn't have to improve alot, it just needs to get rid of the cartels and the violence. Many go to US because there are few job opportunities in Mexico now. But 100 years is ALOT of history.
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 seriously,U.S. states breaking away and wanting to join mexico as a nation that would mean that mexico would have to improve as a nation to a degree unprecedented in history while at the same time the U.S. getting so miserable not even worth being maintained as a nation anymore at all, which in other words to me would amount to nothing less than the end of the world as we know it. mexico and the U.S. already share what i`d call combined regions, e.g. san diego-tijuana / elpaso-c.juarez
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS San Diego-Tijuana, etc. aren't really integrated because there's a big, long wall dividing the two cities. Also, Mexico is even more diverse and distinct because in south Mexico most of the people are Indians or mestizo (mixed race European-Indian), while the north is mostly white or mestizo. And yet, north and south feel equally as Mexican. I'm not gonna argue further, you have your point of view and I have mine. But I think in history, expect the unexpected (like Friedman says).
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 well yes, you got that right, let`s just agree to disagree, the factors that i named just indicate a tendency which clearly is what i expect to happen, you are also right with saying "expect the unexpected" because what we do ain't more than mere "crystal balling" at the moment. the CIA for that matter has mexico listed as "increasingly unstable" with tendency to a failed state, and to downplay that by saying "they don't have to improve a lot" is a bit too far off, anyways, greetings.
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS lol If Mexico fell to the Narcos so what? It'll only mean the highest memebrs of the government would be narco "complicit" (the lower level are mostly practically narco "complicit"). I don't remember clearly, but I think that Freidman said (don't know if in his book or website) that a narco-state for Mexico would be little different than current Mexico. But let's just wait and see what happens in future! (If you ever get Friedman's book, read pages 1 to 13, they are most revealing.)
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 thank you, i think i will get the book, and i understand your argument as far as mexico failing as state and falling to "the narcos" only you have seemed to totally left out of the equation that america has an increasing need to defend it`s borders, and it`s people and it certainly isn't going to simply bystand and let something like that happen considering that even today on the american side people are in danger because of "bullets flying into their half of the border"
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@fspo1112 which means, if mexico as a legtimate state fails (which the tendency is) and can't ensure territorial obligations, then the matters will be taken into the hands of those who are concerned with it (which in this case clearly is the U.S.) meaning in short,the parallel problems of the historically weak central state and the growing need of America to protect it's border, people, and trade means that Mexico will lose the territory it can't control. simply as that.
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS The current US-Mexico border is one of the best because it has a natural border: Rio Grande. Deeper in Mexico will mean less natural borders and more fences (which US tax payers will not be happy about). It also means very high border instability and volatility (as Chechnya in Russia). USA will not want that instability/inner problems, it will be focused on WORLD events dealing with Turkish-Japanese power. It will do as it has done before: ignore Mexican problems (in the LONG RUN).
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 well that only is the case with the border region of mexico and texas, the rio grande though has many rather shallow "mild" sections of its flow that can be (and are) easily overcome for illegal crossings, the further you "push down south" from northern mexico say via possible annexation, the smaller a possible border would actually become as mexico slims in width to the south, also the baja california already provides for a perfect future "cut off main land" scenario,
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS Just read Friedman's book. I'm no longer going into details.
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 lol, i said i will !! take it easily ;) anyways, greetings man
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS Oops, sorry. I forgot about the part where you said you would get the book. Thanks, greetings too!
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 makes sense from that certain perspective ( i haven't read his book yet) so thanks for that little insight, the question with regard to mexico though clearly is, that if like you say is stated in the book, that mexico in some shape of form is actually benefiting from the drug trade which they claim to fight, then what kind of "stable growth" could that provide for the society to prosper on!? while it certainly "helps" some, "drug business" only caters the very worst elements of society
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@fspo1112 certainly the kind of element that no serious modern government, a democratic and dynamic open society would want to thrive on, and letting the mexican state benefiting from drug trade(mostly done cross border at great expense of america)is certainly nothing that america will let them get away with in the mid to long run. those things are exhausting to many people inside mexico thus if this is sustained on behalf of authorities you have all the ingredients for what i have stated above
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS Friedman says that the drug trade has economic benefits, but it has the possibility of ripping society apart. I think that people like Mexico's president, for example, actually do fight the drug war, but lower-level government officials don't. Plus Mexico has a startegy (according to Stratfor), which is letting the Sinaloa Cartel grow more powerful while the gov't takes out other cartels (so they don't have to fight all the cartels). It's risky, and I still don't know all the details.
fspo1112 8 months ago
@fspo1112 it is correct that the mexican society contiunes to be only devided by/in the process that`s been going on in mexico internally, the protest marches in large numbers could be viewed as first indicators to that. back to future scenarios, like i said, puerto rico is a good example, it is still a "common wealth" and not an official state yet, but it shows that there already is a "spenglish america" that could only be helpful in the future with mexican regions wanting to break away.
CHUUMPASS 8 months ago
@CHUUMPASS The drug war should see an end in sight in this decade according to Friedman. Also, the US can't do really do anything to Mexico other than place a border wall or economic sanctions, and to top it off, the lower-level government are corrupt (so they're not a serious modern democracy). Mexican society is open, but the average Mexican can only suspect that the drug trade may be supported by some in their government (we already see major anti-drug war protests by Mexico's citizenry).
fspo1112 8 months ago
america still holds enormous advances and thanks to that "uniquely american thing" (i don't know how to call it, other than spirit maybe) that even captures people from all over the planet, america will remain dominant, whereas china is what is known as "short selling" on wall street, nobody from outside truly wants to live there, china is used for certain investments to get big profit margins over a certain period (which has already peaked) for mostly low value/skill mass marked products.
CHUUMPASS 9 months ago
i generally don`t think much of "crystal balling" but if mr. friedman here provides very solid and rational reasoning as to how the future could unfold and it definitely makes sense to me as say, a general evaluation/expectation. plus to all the trolls that can be found under anything that has to do with america, bashing america and singing hail to china, "communist drones" like one is called below here, i think that is just about correct !!!
CHUUMPASS 9 months ago
It's a brave new world, ain't it?!!! What color bottle should we use for our test tube incubations? I wonder how our babies' brain cells are being altered now that we are no longer incubated in nature. Environments that were working agriculturally photosynthesized chi zones was our natural state. Do you think the rise in depression and psychosis, and attention deficit disorders is connected to the change?
marytfic 9 months ago
U.S and Mexico at war? I'd love to see that. We would wipe the floor with them in like 5 minutes. They don't even have nukes and have never left outer space.
boxerguy1982 10 months ago
The liberal media tell us America is over, and china is the future. As usual, the liberal media presents it secret desires as factual news.
sirjames45 10 months ago
American dominance does not translate to prosperity for most of its citizens.
sventoby 11 months ago
@sventoby Actually it does and most of them are.
njdevil281 4 months ago
Interesting book. 15 bucks well spent.
Icarusdecending82 11 months ago
Brilliant man {and right.} I saw him recently on C-Span talking about his latest book "The Next Decade" which I'm currently reading. Listen to him. Listen to what he says. It makes sense. Throw out the emotion and your own biases. He's right. Who's going to displace America? China? You're kidding. China has to contend with a population of over 1.3 billion which is a huge albatross around it's neck.
kentucy9999 11 months ago
This guy is so brilliant it's scary!
jhaack79 1 year ago
I think China's economy will surpass the US economy in 10 years.
miregrc 1 year ago
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@miregrc
''I think China's economy will surpass the US economy in 10 years.''
Most ridiculous statement.
US GDP: 14.7 trillion
China GDP: 5.7 Trillion
That means that China has to grow 300% to break even with the US.
If China has 10% annual GDP growth (which it will NEVER maintain), and the US 3% annual GDP growth, thats means that after 40 years China will break even with the US...
And this is from a very unrealistic perpective...
tjobv 10 months ago
@OlderG0ds LOL, I bet your eyes were all wet when you wrote your last comment.
You know what that means?
I was on target. Doritos, couch, Fox News. Thats Ok. You'll be alright. I don't mind you fat ass, you sound like a decent guy. All you need to do is to pull your head out of your fat ass, then THINK before you call jerks like GF smart. Yeah, their are smart b/c they find stupid people to sell their shit. Now go back to you bag of chips.
mampre 1 year ago
Comment removed
Xwaxtaxper 1 year ago
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@Xwaxtaxper I love it when fuckers like you start the sentence with "I never said". That means you where fuckin wrong. You don't know what the hell you are talking. If he IS NOT RIGHT, that means he IS AN IDIOT LIKE YOU, MORON.
mampre 1 year ago
@Xwaxtaxper Marx never opted for a worldwide domination of communism. He argued that violent class struggle is inevitable in the capitalist model of societies, and the overthrow of the aristocracy by the proletariat is an eventuality of time. Go read his Communist Manifesto.
China and India are political rivals, but in economic terms they are partners, much like the relationship between China and US.
Don't jump into a debate if you don't know what you are talking about.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
Wouldnt it be more practical to tap geo-thermal energy than space solar? Oil companies are routinely drilling to 6km now. Surely it would be easier than overcoming payload, maitinence, and transmission issues associated with space? Meteorites, for eg. would be a huge challenge, as the plan requires enormous surface area.
aaronsdavis 1 year ago
Wouldnt it be more practical to tap geo-thermal energy than space solar? Oil companies are routinely drilling to 6km now. Surely it would be easier than overcoming payload, maitinence, and transmission issues associated with space?
aaronsdavis 1 year ago
@Xwaxtaxper 21st century belongs to Asia with China and India, enough said. Communist never opt for a global domination, you are in dire need of a history and Poli-sci lesson. Get out of your American Cold War Red Scare brainwashing paranoia and see the world.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred That's not necessarily true. Post World War II, The People's Republic of China and the USSR wished to spread Communism to parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
CrazyShakaZulu 1 year ago
@CrazyShakaZulu Spreading a political ideal isn't global domination.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@mampre I never said all of his predictions come true I said he's very, very smart.
OK I'm done talking to you. Have fun in 8th grade.
OlderG0ds 1 year ago
@OlderG0ds occupy wall street, debt crisis?
Abdikarimelmi 4 months ago
@Abdikarimelmi I don't think occupy wallst will have a significant impact on the 21st century.
I'm just saying.
TOTCD 4 months ago
@TOTCD the debt crisis and weakling power over middle east will effect america in the future
Abdikarimelmi 4 months ago
@Abdikarimelmi Not if the US economy can grow at 4% a year.
And cut federal spending. You are making the mistake that everyone makes.
You think the situation today will be the same situation tommorow.
It's 2011. 2020 will be a completely different story already.
George Friedman talks about the 21st century.
You really think occupy wall st. will be one of the top 3 events of the 21st century?
Lol if you do then we have nothing more to discuss
TOTCD 4 months ago
The guy does get one thing wrong though. States along the south western united states especially Texas and Arizona would rather a nuclear apocalypse happen than join Mexico.
cwa1984 1 year ago
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@powerofthroughts If anyone is full of shit it is you.
cwa1984 1 year ago
WOW! I didn't know Geoerge W Bush was an expert on geopolitics! LMFAO!
RevInt1 1 year ago
@RevInt1 No your right George W. Bush isn't an expert on geopolitics. That's why he trolls on youtube under the name RevInt 1
Xwaxtaxper 1 year ago
The guy sounds like a simple warmonger.
americaninjustice 1 year ago
@americaninjustice you type like a moron.
sparksza1 1 year ago
this guy is an absolute idiot. what a jock.
mampre 1 year ago
@mampre
sure anybody who says something positive about america is a jock and an idiot. There are a million videos on youtube bashing america maybe you might feel more at home watching one of those.
TheProjektcc 1 year ago
@mampre idiot? He's one of the smartest people alive and the leading expert on geopolitics. He'd make you look like a drooling retard (wouldn't be hard though).
OlderG0ds 1 year ago
@OlderG0ds yes. Idiot. both you and him. turdo
mampre 1 year ago
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basicss86 1 year ago
He has some good reasons for what he mentions but, he misses India and Brazil 2 growing powers. Brazil has discovered masses of resources recently.
I rather liked his Eurasian predictions.
Pretty well thought out predictions
warstomper 1 year ago
@warstomper he has talked about india and brazil.
AlaizterURMOM 1 year ago
I have 7 sons,its choice give your money to the government or give it to your children...
I choose the latter....
ClarksonsinUSA 1 year ago
100 years lol
if we ever reach 100 years never know whats happen.
GrandmasterTigerfist 1 year ago
What I would like to see is a discussion between Friedman and Fareed Zakaria (Post-American World) ...certainly Zakaria's arguments seem much more reasonable, and currently the U.S. looks like it will decline even faster than it was thought before...there is no other way than to share power in the future for the USA.
on91 1 year ago
@on91 I think the USA will find that the same things which enabled them to become the greatest empire thus far, will also be the same things that cause them to fall faster than any other empire to date.
unwinsis 1 year ago
Rush Limblob gets talking points off of Stratfor. 'Nuff said.
Tsnore 1 year ago
What does Population density have to do with economy growth? Nothing! Only population growth has to do with this, because according to Mr. Friedman Canada and Mongolia would have to have the fastest growing economies in the Worlds...and his views about China are complete Nonsense, sry, but China's economy isn't just based on "cheap exports", but also on an ever faster-growing domestic market. And as opposed to the USA, China exports more than it Imports, while the USA has a huge trade deficit.
on91 1 year ago
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panduzepe44 1 year ago
Wow....this guy is so wrong in so many ways I don't even know where to begin. First of all, China is now the second largest economy in the world, already surpassed Japan. Second of all, Japan invaded China for the natural resources in Manduria as well as to fulfill its imperialist dream of Asia domination. Go read up what Mukden Incident is. This guy needs a serious lecture on Modern History 101.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred When he gave this lecture, Japan was still ranked as second. Your second point as no relevance. I don't hear any intelligent arguments from you refuting any of his points.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
My wife and I have 7 sons and we thrive.....
ClarksonsinUSA 1 year ago
american dominance of the mcdonalds. Now seriousely, the usa is going down...with a bang
kinghanuman 1 year ago
@kinghanuman Prove it.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@kinghanuman Who would take over for the U.S. than? The EU doesn't possess the desire or ability to take over.
cwa1984 1 year ago
demography is the biggest problem
BezCiceNemaPrice 1 year ago
Dream on. In the last decades the US have lost the main part of their production industry which could no longer compete with Asia and Europe. And in addition to this problem one fine day the brain drain of foreign scientists will no longer work and so won't the drain of loaned foreign money with which the average Americans finance their "way of living".
Smalbop 1 year ago
what friedman does not realize is that china is building cities that are empty which could easily provide shelter for the millions of people living in the country side. they are buying mines, making international deals with everyone, have gold reserves, and a population that could consume a little more which would make up some of the difference from the lost of the U.S. consumer.
1samothrace77 1 year ago
@1samothrace77: But their government would have to allow their people to be affluent consumers, and I don't think Red China can do that, not without losing political control.
NickB1967 1 year ago
A year and a half later his predictions are looking very bleak. We will wait though. So far, his book looks like complete fantasy.
AdamAtlanta2010 1 year ago
EU surpasses US in prettymuch every category. So when you take that fact (Which mister Friedman ignores) then US is suddenly no longer #1.
Teranex 1 year ago
@Teranex Well, a fact that you appears to ignore is that there is no such country as EU- we are (I'm EU citizen) a group of countries that have some common interests, but when problems occur (like the financial crisis) everyone is carryning about himself...
panduzepe44 1 year ago
@panduzepe44 You appear to ignore that mister Friedman has written that he cant imagine that any nation could surpass USA in the next 100 year. While it is very much possible that the EU will become a country within that time. And if everyone cared only for himself, then Greece would have already gone bankrupt.
Teranex 1 year ago
No, it is not- Portugal has very few common interest with Lithuania, and Germany has a lot of opposite interests to, for example, France or Poland. Speaking about Greece- THE ONLY reason it hasn't gone bankrupt was taking care of German banks by the Germans, the France banks by France etc- you see, the Greek owned (and still own) them money. To much to let them go bankrupt. (I have a M. in finances and accounting, I know what I'm writing about)
panduzepe44 1 year ago
@panduzepe44 There is consent amongst European nations which are part of the EU, that they can achieve their common interests only by uniting their political power. Thats is the only interest any EU nation needs, no matter their interest.
"To much to let them go bankrupt"-This never was about the Greek dept but about the euro, was it just for the Greeks those nations wouldn't care for what becomes of them. And euro is a common interest of all EU nations, again proving my point.
Teranex 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@Teranex oh my, u r wrong in so many places I don't even know where shall I start. And even if I knew, I wouldn't since there is definitely not enough space in the commentary box. Look, I'm can not convince u, but let me show u some (not all) arguments: if u want, u can read this article, is written not by Fridman himself but by his employee. stratfor.com/weekly/20101011_natos_lack_strategic_concept
panduzepe44 1 year ago
@Teranex A recent paper published by Virginia Tech University actually stated that China will surpass US as the world's #1 technological and economic superpower in 50 years' time. Who's more credible, a single individual or an entire university.......hmmmm........
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Again, why don't you try challenging one of his arguments instead of resorting to ad hominem tactics and obscure references? Even if China's economy is bigger than America's (China has been the world's biggest economy for the majority of history), it's individual GNP is still far lower, and wealth inequality is massive. Both of these could lead to instability.
I would love to hear your counter arguments.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 It's true that GDP per capita is lower in China than in the US, but you also forget that China also has a much lower costs of living. It only costs on average $5 USD a day to live. Since 1970s China has also lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty, the largest single economic accomplishment ever in human history. Population poverty rate of China today is only 2.4% according to the standards of World Bank, while US' is more than twice of China's.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred If that's true then how do you begin to explain the absolutely massive gaps in living standards, education, and modernization within the poorer interior provinces? All reasonable and unbias sources put China's poverty rate at much closer to 10% if not much higher. I don't see many people in the U.S. who are living in destitute, third world conditions, and I've seen entire towns consisting of rural peasants.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 The CIA puts the Chinese population poverty rate at 2.4%. Go check out their CIA World Factbook. May I ask, is the CIA a biased and unreasonable source? Both the current population poverty rate and unemployment rate of US is at least twice as much as China's.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred It is well known that exact numbers on the poverty level are difficult to calculate because China is not a transparent society. I find it hard to believe that several hundred million peasant farmers would agree with your notion that there's virtually no poverty in China. That number is highly misleading. Poverty in China means a third world existence in the countryside while poverty in the U.S. is helped by social services and welfare.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 Obscure references? LOL? It's a common fact that Japan invaded China purely out of imperialism. It attacked China to obtain more natural resources and to establish an Empire of the Sun. It wasn't to secure their investments in China. Anyone who has remotely came across 20th century history would know this, but apparently you and this idiot in the video do not. Today US owes China more than $900 billion USD in debt. I would love to see your argument on how US can get out of this one.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred If you read his book...he openly discusses the relationship between China and Japan...and I never once denied their history. The debt issue is simple: China needs the U.S. economy just as much as we need them buying our debt. If the U.S. economy goes, China looses its chief trading partner and consumer market, and currently China's government operates under strong performance legitimacy - if economic growth slows or ceases, they're going to quickly lose support.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 Mr. Friedman here is just a sad Yank trapped in the his own wishful thinking that US can still maintain its #1 dominance of the world, while all empirical evidence concludes that the power of balance of the 21st century has undeniably shifted towards the Far East, namely China and the remote possibility of India. No one is arguing that China is a perfect country and it has no problems, but as of now the only way China can go is up, while US can only decline. Golden age of US is gone.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Only way China can go is up? Hardly, there's significant reason to believe that it will implode upon itself. China's demographics are a time bomb: it will soon have the largest population of unworking seniors in the world with an undersized working class to care for it. In case it's escaped you, China has virtually no social safety net system to care for these people. Combine this with massive inequalities and their economy will have its legs kicked out.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Furthermore, have you even seen the data on China's corruption? It's ranked 72 out of 179 countries, and it highly ingrained in their government. Business loans are issued almost entirely out of quanxi connections or corrupt deals rather than sound business, and as a result nearly a quarter of the nation's economy is made up of non-performing loans. Currently China can grow its way out of this bad debt, but the moment growth stops, it will catch up.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 Have you seen how much China has been stamping out corruption? I have lived in China in the mid 1990s, and I have returned there in the 2000s, and I can tell from personal experience that corruption had already improved vastly. In fact minimizing corruption is currently on the CCP's top agenda. And for the past 20 years China's growth has not stopped once. In fact when the entire world was experiencing recession in 2008, China was the only country with a constant 10% growth.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Of course the CCP is going to claim to be attacking corruption - it wants to keep the confidence of the population. However a study by the Carnegie endowment showed that in late 2006 nearly a quarter of the population surveyed ranked their local officals as corrupt with 12 percent reporting them as severely corrupt. Transparency international ranks China's corruption perception as 3.4 on a 1-10 scale (lower being more corrupt).
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Much like Japan before its lost decade, China is completely dependent upon foreign markets and investment. Foreign investment accounts for half of the Chinese economy while consumption at home accounts for about 36 percent (the lowest in the world). Virtually all of this foreign investment is in manufacturing, and when the population begins to shrink China's edge in cheap labor will wane. From there the race to the bottom will look elsewhere.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 China won't always be relying on cheap labor and manufacturing to constitute the bulk of its GDP. Eventually it will advance from manufacturing to developing its own technologies and brand names, which it is actively doing now. Chinese R&D budget is now higher than US'. Millions of college and university graduates emerge from China each year, while US only has a couple hundred of thousands. China is acquiring capital, while US is getting rid of them because of budget cuts.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred It may be training its own engineers and technicians but it certainly isn't going to attract long-term immigration and the collective minds and innovation from around the world. In a globalized economy, it's necessary to attract individuals to your universities and research groups from many countries, while China is almost completely reliant on its own population. Works fine when you're over a billion people, but that won't last much longer.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
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@Arcadius15 China's growth has been steady and locked between 9-15% for over 20 years, and with the way it's running its economy, building and improving on infrastructures, stamping out corruption, attracting foreign investments, actively investing in Africa and South America, obtaining natural and strategic resources, building up its foreign reserves, etc, there is absolutely no reason to believe that China's growth would stop any time soon in the forseeable future.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Oh but there is. No country in history has ever managed to keep their economy growing at that rate indefinitely, and sooner or later the massive social problems that China faces are going to catch up. As I mentioned before, the one child policy has left China's demographics in shambles, there are massive wealth gaps between the cities and the interior, the environment is degrading rapidly, and nearly a quarter of the economy is made up of non-performing loans.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@devilhunterred So you mean that corrupt quanxi based business deals, building 'ghose cities' (like Ordos), supporting brutal governments in Africa with arms sales in order to obtain oil, and becoming completely dependent upon foreign markets is going to create an economy which will rule the world? Nonsense. While China will undoubtedly be a big player in the next century, it will never lead the world.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@devilhunterred For every $20 item manufactured in China, only about 35 cents actually goes into the Chinese economy, the vast majority is pocketed by the international corporations which invest in those factories, many of which are owned by Americans. As Dong Tao put it, the biggest beneficiary of this system is the U.S. Their companies get cheaper manufacturing and its citizens cheaper goods.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 I would like to see the source of this figure. Besides, China isn't doing this simply for the profit. It's also about technology convergence. When foreign firms are setting up factories in China to make iPod, iPhone, Macbooks, laptops, military equipments, batteries, etc, the knowledge and technology of how to build them is also transfered to the Chinese. This knowledge will be much more valuable and helpful to China in the long run in their technological advancement.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Even so, technological transference is not the same thing as innovation. Even if China is investing heavily into developing its technological prowess, it will at best compete with the existing heavy hitters such as Japan, Korea, the EU and the U.S.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
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devilhunterred 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 China has surpassed the United States as the world's top technology exporter. China is also currently the world's 3rd largest innovator and is set to lead global innovation by 2012 by NYT. China's technological standing also surpassed the United States to become the top in the world in worldwide technological competitiveness. China is also currently considered the world leader in green technology. Because of this, China predicted to become a technology and innovation superpower.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Nice copy and paste, is that the best you can do you pathetic CCP drone?
The citations for China leading the world in technology is based on ONE report. Fortunately, we are still the largest exporter of technology and innovation products in the world.
Also: google Li Lu
Xwaxtaxper 1 year ago
@Xwaxtaxper Pax Americana was only relevant after WWII when US was trying to use it as a propaganda tool against USSR and Communism. Unfortunately for you in the 21st century it's painfully obvious that America's dominant position has been waning. 21st century belongs to Asia.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred there will be no asian centruy be cause of china
udical 1 year ago
@Xwaxtaxper Wikipedia isn't controlled by CCP.
Nice try you Republican G.W Bush brainwashed racist Nazi white trash trailer park incest redneck.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@Arcadius15 Go to wikipedia and search Chinese Century.
devilhunterred 1 year ago
@devilhunterred Go to wikipedia and search Pax Americana
Xwaxtaxper 1 year ago
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devilhunterred 1 year ago
@Teranex GNP in the U.S. is higher. Military spending in the U.S. is higher. Population growth in the U.S. is higher. FDI in the U.S. is higher.
Your argument holds no weight.
Arcadius15 1 year ago
I've never heard this many bullshit in my life.OK it's obvious this guy is patriot US is perfect doesn't have any defects when all the other countries have countless defects and that's why US will never fall.Yeah right.
This guy probably thinks he is Nostradamus ,what he says doesn't mean nothing.There are books that predict the fall of US,and they were written by americans too.
We will live and we will see.Nothing is certain today.
UltraFighter18 1 year ago
is this video supposed be hope for the USA? lol very funny
Isreal4realz 1 year ago
China is now No 2 , Japan is No 3...
rakovpotok 1 year ago
Today, Japanese are not curious to the power game and money game. Visit to Japan and look with your eyes. Everyone is talking about ecology life now.
vv88vv88 1 year ago
So being the most in debt country in the history of the world is good? We have a service based economy...the last great power that had a service economy was Holland...where are they today? Also let's not forget 40% of our industrial output comes from our massive defense corporations which only sell their products to who...the U.S. government. 80% of our GDP comes from U.S. consumer spending. The Western half of the U.S. has a water crisis on their hands and yet everything is fine...please...
PremiumWater 1 year ago
@PremiumWater I'm not American, but I think you're missing the point. There's a large difference between a country having problems and it being on the verge of collapse. Don't forget, every European Empire had deep, endemic domestic problems as well, but they ruled most of the known the world for the greater part of the 19th century.
Chirios1 1 year ago
America is the largest western nation hence ,we are the Hyper power......
ClarksonsinUSA 1 year ago
im a chinese. very prideful of my nation. but george friedman is correct and i respect him
chinaownseverything 1 year ago 2
Lol , this "expert" is silly , USA because of immigration is becoming a thirld world country and yet he says it's good because it makes population grows...
It's not quantity but quality that counts!
IoRoberto 1 year ago
@IoRoberto
3rd world? You haven't ever been to US have you? It's the definition of 1st world country. Immigration is what this country is all about whether people like it or not, always has been.
OlderG0ds 1 year ago
@IoRoberto quantity is more than quality. coz america is quantity
chinaownseverything 1 year ago
America is Rome..................................And shall last a thousand years,thats a good thing for Europe.....
Why????? Because when they lose control of their nations, due to a sub replacement birthrate OF NATIVE Euros it gives them some where to flee to......
THATS WHY.....
ClarksonsinUSA 1 year ago
i want to punch this host in the face
ironbmike 1 year ago
@ironbmike U can do it once u get an interview from him.
TheCatholic143 1 year ago
But by 1984 I think, the economy finally got back on its feet, which led to Reagan's reelection. The nation brushed aside the '87 crash, which didn't last long enough to do any serious damage. Then came the 1990-1992 recession, which led to Bush 41's defeat in 11/4/92. 1993-2000 saw the largest peacetime economi growth in the history of the nation thanks to President Clinton. So obviously the after effects of Great Recession of 2008-2009 will eventually rub off this country perhaps by 2020 or so
tcave360 1 year ago
The USA has been in several economic crises before, such as the financial chaos of the 1970s, the short 1987 stock market crash, and the dot.com bubble burst that led to the recession of 2001-2002. This proves that Dr. Friedman could be correct about a 20 or 30 year economic cycle in this country. After the Crash of 1929, the US, with the help of WW2, experienced an unprecedented post-war economic boom in the 1950s and the 1960s. Then came the financial chaos of the 1970s.
tcave360 1 year ago
@tcave360 Then US are in big trouble. WW3 is far so the only solution is to start a war perhaps with Iran.US economy always bloomed after a war.But today is different.The society is much more advanced the Chinese and Indians are becoming stronger and stronger and will eventually surpass USA.
UltraFighter18 1 year ago
Why does he dislike the word hegemony? He used it almost on every page in "The Next 100 Years".
Contrajoe 1 year ago