Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 2

[steigerpower]

Australia

It's so ironic the property market bounce into action not long home buyer's grant policy had commence which was to design to assist so many into this market which now it's has turn into bubble which has driven up prices outer their reach most first home buyer's.

Socailism never works and the free market will in time take control then real values will be had then.

Why hadn't the Gov just wrote the cheques out to the Realitor's would save alot time as that's who end up with it.

[erictjie]

your theory doesnot apply to australian housing market. the BOOOM is BOOM BOOM. just last month our neighbour sold their property 40% above reserve. AMAZING...

an ugly semi house with 240 sqm sold for aud$980,000. 750sqm 2 storey house sold for $2,24 mil. amazing

our neighbourhood become millionaires hahahahah

[Clipper52a]

By the way, July 28 is my birthday.

[Clipper52a]

From a price perspective, the maximum retracement can be as much as 78.6% of the total real price increase from 1953 to 2010.

[Clipper52a]

Most of us baby boomer cannot even begin to conceive that this is a possibility as the property boom has started before we had the privilege to "reincarnate" from another world.

[Clipper52a]

However, let's not forget that the 21 year decline from a time perstpective is a conservative estimate. Wave 2 decline can take as much as 5/8 of the time (35 years) for the total advances from 1953 - 2010 which is a 57 year advance.

[Clipper52a]

Thus, keeping in line with the concept that cycles do come in different degrees. We can expect that once wave 5 has complete, hence, wave 1 of a larger degree has complete, then we can expect a property bust that will last at least 3/8 of the time it takes for the entire advances from 1953 - 2009 (roughly 56 year cycle). This will put the property price to decline for the next 21 year, similar to what is happenning over at Japan in the 1980's.

[Clipper52a]

test

[Cuber1974]

I live in Sydney and Australia is NUTS

Our property 'boom' is still in full swing care of corrupt governments and vested interests who are wiping out Australian tax payer revenues in order to keep prices high.

Of the top 50 overpriced areas for housing affordability in the entire world, Australia currently has a whopping 30 of them on the list.

Unfortunately, Australians seem to be almost immune to pessimism on housing prices and are STILL pushing prices HIGHER!

It's going to end in tears...

[cathkin33]

truth is hard to find.....thanks for the video.

[brunopowroznikagain]

Bruno Powroznik is back as brunopowroznikagain

[xdfgth32]

your voice sounds much more "boring" than on CWR for example - makes it hard to keep focused on what you say.

[oxygen777]

you whistle when you speak

[BubbFromGEI]

Its the inferior recording method - sorry abouyt that. I will try to get something better in teh future.

[cuttheraceistheads]

na that the micro phone he is ta;king into

[cuttheraceistheads]

coolllllllllllllllllllllllllll­lllllllllllllllll

[hkyriazi]

I'm sympathetic to the Georgist cause, but I find such post-hoc discussions weak. With hundreds of gurus out there, some of them must, if only by chance, make correct predictions. That doesn't mean their analyses are correct. I'm especially wary of cycle analyses, and folks who think they can time them precisely, when there are so many variables at work. Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't. Who cares? Let's get on with the stated task of identifying culprits and explaining the solution!

[BubbFromGEI]

You won't find the right culprits unless you understand the mechanisms behind the cycle. I think those who contribute to widening speculative premiums are to blame. And the worst are those who: hype property when it is already expensive, finance property for more than its traditional lending value, lie about their incomes to buy more than they can afford, reduce interest rates to unsustainably low levels to avoid recession... those are the people to blame.

[NearAbbeyRoad]

@BubbFromGEI

It is simple.

Profits from increased LAND values are currently creamed off for private gain. Easy gains attract speculators - the evil of the free-market. Stop speculation in LAND and its Resources and boom & busts go. The free-market is then unrigged in a factor of production, LAND. How do you do that? Introduce LAND valuation Taxation.

The values in land were not created by the landowner - created by the community. A fact of economics.

[BubbFromGEI]

Right. Identify the cuprits. Why not just jail everyone named: Alan or Gordon.

[BubbFromGEI]

I have started a poll on: GlobalEdgeInvestors dotcom, to learn more about people's attitudes towards property speculation, using Harrison's cycles.

== ==

A gap between rich and poor? Well there's one already, in case you havent noticed, and one of the reasons it is there is because soem people became rich speculating on property. If you know my work at all, I have worked hard for years to educate people so that they can use their own money more effectively.

[vlcmediacrazy]

yeah, we notice the gap between rich and poor.

we know about speculators too and you're one of them.

[BubbFromGEI]

If you bothered to read the extensive arguments on the GEI thread, you would see that I make a (useful?) distinction between those who are true speculators, paying a huge speculative premium for property, hoping to make a capital gain, and the investors. True property investors buy only when Rents are above Mortgage Rates- as I have done. They provide a service, when the market is crying out for places to rent. I suspect you are a "soundbite thinker" who doesnt want to do the work.

[vlcmediacrazy]

There is no difference between speculators and "investors". You do not provide a "service". People like you have created this mess then come along with a solution and preen yourselves about how humanitarian you are. That's like when your kind divert the river of a village to your bottled water plant and then come along with your bottled water from the same river, selling it to the villagers and patting yourself on the back about what a great man you are for selling them water.

[Macrocompassion]

I wonder if Fred's publicity is for the best? Perhaps the greater awareness in land speculation, would make the next cycle so sharp that our government might possibly wake up? I doubt it. It would help if the simulation of these cycles be refined so that accurate forecasts of the housing market become popular news items. That we should all be speculators is impossible and unworthy of you. It will raise the gap between the rich and the poor. Do we really want to create a poor man's rebellion?

[Macrocompassion]

This information is from a member of "The Georgists" followers of Henry George, the American economist of the 19th century. He proposed to tax land values so as to reduce the poverty gap between thr rich and the poor. However, this speech is how to exploit the property market and thereby exaggerate the degree of difference there. Only if government wakes up to these realities and introduces land legislation is there a hope of reducing the lack of opportunity caused by land speculation.

[HollandParker]

" Only if government wakes up to these realities and introduces land legislation is there a hope of reducing the lack of opportunity caused by land speculation."

Changing laws could be a good thing - but until then, you may need to become a speculator to protect yourself.

[HollandParker]

"Final mad buying frenzy" - YES, that sums it up. Okay if 3-5 years down, and now falling over 1% a month, it is going to get very ugly.

[BubbFromGEI]

Can Harrison cyclical model be used to find the next low? I believe so.

I want to provide a Forum for those who want to use CYCLES, psychology, and technical analysis to find the low, and avoid buying too soon.