I expect 3 things will challenge perceptions within the next 1-3 years:
Firstly, battery prices are falling rapidly due to an increase in manufacture & supply. Secondly, Lloyds predicts the late-2012 crude oil price will be $200 USD/barrel due to demand (esp. China & India) and it'll only rise from there.
Thirdly, pricing, demand & competition (esp from the likes of Coda & Tesla) will see auto makers with the self-imposed limit of 100 miles per charge have little choice but to move forward.
As for battery tech and price reductions, The LEAF's battery cost $10,000 USD in 2009, and Elon Musk (from Tesla) says lithium battery costs fall 8% every year.
The only problem is makers like Nissan, Toyota, Ford etc aren't keen on people only buying their electric cars just yet, when there's still so much money to be made from their Internal Combustion Engined vehicles.
This explains the common, stunted range of only 100 miles in EVs made by manufacturers which primarily make ICE vehicles.
@bored1980 You really believe an EV's range of ~100 miles is a conspiracy by auto makers to keep ICE vehicles on the road? You don't think other factors such as cost, weight and size have any thing to do with limiting the size of the batteries used? I'm sure manufacturers could and would gladly produce EVs with 1000+ mile range if enough people were willing to pay like half a mil for a delivery van sized vehicle that seats two and has zero cargo space!
@Smidge204 I didn't say 1000 miles, don't be so theatrical. And it's not a conspiracy, it's just sensible business practice. If I you were a car maker who'd invested billions into one technology over several decades, why on earth would you drop it for a newer technology in the blink of an eye?
The range of 100 miles is done for reasons other than cost & weight. You can disagree, but home conversions with much more basic tech can achieve more than 100+ miles. Have a look through evablum (.) com.
@bored1980 Sorry posted too soon there... my point is there are real technical and practical reasons why commercially offered EVs have they range they do. As batteries improve these limitations will be overcome. And yes, "conspiracy" is exactly the word to use since you have multiple entities acting together to manipulate the market - otherwise any one car maker could produce an affordable EV with longer range and dominate the market.
@Smidge204 You have a point, long range packs are still expensive, but it's not the sole reason why they're not on offer for sale in all electric cars and it's a problem.
Have a look at the upcoming BMW i8 vs the upcoming Tesla Model S. Compare the specs (most
importantly, the price). The old argument that "The technology isn't there yet" will be put to rest quite nicely. But then, Tesla has nothing to lose by offering a 300 mile range EV - they have no Internal Combustion Engined products.
@bored1980 The Model S has ~160 miles for ~US$57,000. If you want the ~300 mile option, that will cost you ~US$77,000. Even at $50K after rebates you're in a high-end market. I never said the technology "wasn't here" - I'm saying 100 miles is a design COMPROMISE, not a design CRITERIA. If you want to sell millions of vehicles you need to balance utility, performance and price - and for many manufacturers that means a battery that gives you ~100 miles of range. Tesla chose performance over price.
@bored1980 Cost of manufacture and performance are very much (but not solely) dependent on technology. I guess you can say we agree since I never explicitly said you CAN'T make a 1000+ mile EV by filling a van to the roof with batteries - but the conspiracy theory that auto makers AREN'T making EVs with longer range to keep ICE vehicles on the road is pure nonsense. There are both technical AND PRACTICAL limitations: Small, high power batteries are expensive and technologically difficult.
@Smidge204 OK, we disagree there. Let me clarify that my idea of a "Long range" electric car is 200-300 miles per charge, which as you know is absolutely possible with current technology.
Yes, the battery pack would be comparatively heavy at this range - perhaps 450 kg, but needn't be obtrusive nor expensive - if you consider the Nissan Leaf's 100-mile battery pack cost $10,000 USD two years ago, vs the trend in battery prices. Perhaps a better question would be, "What is considered expensive?"
@bored1980 "What is considered expensive?" - A Nissan LEAF MSRP is $35,200 (base model). A Nissan Versa, comparable in size and utility with with 300+ mile range per tank, is MSRP $11,000. If you are shopping ONLY for utility (and not environmental/political ideals or technophilia), the LEAF is the functionally the same vehicle for over 3x the up-front cost.
@Smidge204 I appreciate the effort, but the "It costs too much" argument doesn't work, because despite the LEAF costing more than its petrol-powered equivalent, the LEAF demand is still exceeding supply in some US states (with 4 month waiting times, according to one dealer I read about last week).
What's may be considered too much for you, isn't too much for some others.
@bored1980 I didn't say it "costs too much" - you asked what's considered expensive. Ignoring the fact that LEAF production is still limited, many buyers are doing so for reasons other than cost. However, there are far fewer people willing and able to spend $35K on a car than those willing and able to spend $11K, which means the LEAF has a smaller potential market. If the battery was much larger (and cost higher) then the market would be smaller still. Again, compromise not conspiracy.
@Smidge204 Ok, so in short, I think our argument is based on this:
You believe the reason car makers only provide 100 miles per charge is due to a combination of factors such as battery cost, technical limitations, large battery size, and/or battery weight, whereas I think that common imposed range is intentional due to maximise profit of the companies existing technology. Is that right?
@Smidge204 Ok, cool. I also think your arguments has drifted somewhat, but at least I understand why you think what you do. Made a dull Saturday lively if nothing else.
I expect 3 things will challenge perceptions within the next 1-3 years:
Firstly, battery prices are falling rapidly due to an increase in manufacture & supply. Secondly, Lloyds predicts the late-2012 crude oil price will be $200 USD/barrel due to demand (esp. China & India) and it'll only rise from there.
Thirdly, pricing, demand & competition (esp from the likes of Coda & Tesla) will see auto makers with the self-imposed limit of 100 miles per charge have little choice but to move forward.
bored1980 5 months ago
As for battery tech and price reductions, The LEAF's battery cost $10,000 USD in 2009, and Elon Musk (from Tesla) says lithium battery costs fall 8% every year.
The only problem is makers like Nissan, Toyota, Ford etc aren't keen on people only buying their electric cars just yet, when there's still so much money to be made from their Internal Combustion Engined vehicles.
This explains the common, stunted range of only 100 miles in EVs made by manufacturers which primarily make ICE vehicles.
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 You really believe an EV's range of ~100 miles is a conspiracy by auto makers to keep ICE vehicles on the road? You don't think other factors such as cost, weight and size have any thing to do with limiting the size of the batteries used? I'm sure manufacturers could and would gladly produce EVs with 1000+ mile range if enough people were willing to pay like half a mil for a delivery van sized vehicle that seats two and has zero cargo space!
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 I didn't say 1000 miles, don't be so theatrical. And it's not a conspiracy, it's just sensible business practice. If I you were a car maker who'd invested billions into one technology over several decades, why on earth would you drop it for a newer technology in the blink of an eye?
The range of 100 miles is done for reasons other than cost & weight. You can disagree, but home conversions with much more basic tech can achieve more than 100+ miles. Have a look through evablum (.) com.
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 I think you mean "evalbum" for the benefit of any third parties.
Please point to a specific conversion from that site and I'll show you why you cannot offer a comparable vehicle commercially.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@bored1980 Sorry posted too soon there... my point is there are real technical and practical reasons why commercially offered EVs have they range they do. As batteries improve these limitations will be overcome. And yes, "conspiracy" is exactly the word to use since you have multiple entities acting together to manipulate the market - otherwise any one car maker could produce an affordable EV with longer range and dominate the market.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 You have a point, long range packs are still expensive, but it's not the sole reason why they're not on offer for sale in all electric cars and it's a problem.
Have a look at the upcoming BMW i8 vs the upcoming Tesla Model S. Compare the specs (most
importantly, the price). The old argument that "The technology isn't there yet" will be put to rest quite nicely. But then, Tesla has nothing to lose by offering a 300 mile range EV - they have no Internal Combustion Engined products.
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 The Model S has ~160 miles for ~US$57,000. If you want the ~300 mile option, that will cost you ~US$77,000. Even at $50K after rebates you're in a high-end market. I never said the technology "wasn't here" - I'm saying 100 miles is a design COMPROMISE, not a design CRITERIA. If you want to sell millions of vehicles you need to balance utility, performance and price - and for many manufacturers that means a battery that gives you ~100 miles of range. Tesla chose performance over price.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 So it seems we agree, 100 miles of range isn't due to the technical limitations of batteries.
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 Cost of manufacture and performance are very much (but not solely) dependent on technology. I guess you can say we agree since I never explicitly said you CAN'T make a 1000+ mile EV by filling a van to the roof with batteries - but the conspiracy theory that auto makers AREN'T making EVs with longer range to keep ICE vehicles on the road is pure nonsense. There are both technical AND PRACTICAL limitations: Small, high power batteries are expensive and technologically difficult.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 OK, we disagree there. Let me clarify that my idea of a "Long range" electric car is 200-300 miles per charge, which as you know is absolutely possible with current technology.
Yes, the battery pack would be comparatively heavy at this range - perhaps 450 kg, but needn't be obtrusive nor expensive - if you consider the Nissan Leaf's 100-mile battery pack cost $10,000 USD two years ago, vs the trend in battery prices. Perhaps a better question would be, "What is considered expensive?"
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 "What is considered expensive?" - A Nissan LEAF MSRP is $35,200 (base model). A Nissan Versa, comparable in size and utility with with 300+ mile range per tank, is MSRP $11,000. If you are shopping ONLY for utility (and not environmental/political ideals or technophilia), the LEAF is the functionally the same vehicle for over 3x the up-front cost.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 I appreciate the effort, but the "It costs too much" argument doesn't work, because despite the LEAF costing more than its petrol-powered equivalent, the LEAF demand is still exceeding supply in some US states (with 4 month waiting times, according to one dealer I read about last week).
What's may be considered too much for you, isn't too much for some others.
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 I didn't say it "costs too much" - you asked what's considered expensive. Ignoring the fact that LEAF production is still limited, many buyers are doing so for reasons other than cost. However, there are far fewer people willing and able to spend $35K on a car than those willing and able to spend $11K, which means the LEAF has a smaller potential market. If the battery was much larger (and cost higher) then the market would be smaller still. Again, compromise not conspiracy.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 Ok, so in short, I think our argument is based on this:
You believe the reason car makers only provide 100 miles per charge is due to a combination of factors such as battery cost, technical limitations, large battery size, and/or battery weight, whereas I think that common imposed range is intentional due to maximise profit of the companies existing technology. Is that right?
bored1980 5 months ago
@bored1980 I think your side of the argument has mutated slightly from my original impression, but yes that's the gist of it from my point of view.
Smidge204 5 months ago
@Smidge204 Ok, cool. I also think your arguments has drifted somewhat, but at least I understand why you think what you do. Made a dull Saturday lively if nothing else.
bored1980 5 months ago