China Threat Debate: John J. Mearsheimer (6 of 11)

[powerofthroughts]

I really agreed with previous speaker; china is really a Global success that benefit everyone; I think the u.s is declining due to bullshiting; instead of competitor with EU and Japan in chinese markets; which will help the u.s economy. this speaker is really rubbish

[stealthpakfa]

once china says we are not buying ur bonds anymore, the US empire will be the next in that scrapheap.

all well and good to talk tough when ur economy is being propped up by china, but once that funding is cut off by the chinese government, american economy, military will collapse faster than the soviet union collapsed.

dont poke ur banker in the eye.

[jbh0research]

@stealthpakfa

Might want to check your facts on that one - China holds too much US currency to be able to liquidate it without crashing its own economy and destroying the capital it has gathered in US dollars.

Also, the US won't collapse the way the the USSR did for a number of reasons, not the least of all being that it has consolidated its enormous wealth in the international system, has preferential trade deals everywhere, has the greatest intellectual powerbase and infrastructure.

[stealthpakfa]

@jbh0research

US has no wealth without china propping america up. without chinas support, america will collapse and break up.

the US needs chinas savings, production and consumption. without these 3 things, america is a 3rd world country.

american infrastructure is nowhere near the level of china, not even close.

american intellectual powerbase is all dependent on china propping up the american economy.

no one comes to america if the US economy has collapsed.

china dont need the US for anything

[jbh0research]

@stealthpakfa

Um, ok but the problem with your position seems to be the facts part. America is so much richer than any other country in the world that if you plot their GDP on a graph you can barely see the rest of the world. The US doesn't need Chinese savings, China uses its capital to lower its currency to remain competitive (without which Chinese production would stall), and China doesn't consume anything from the outside world, so is not relevant to the US economy. Facts are cool.

[stealthpakfa]

@jbh0research

u dont understand economics. china dont need to buy anything from the outside world because everything chinese need is already made in china. of course us need chinas savings, without that america would default.

china owns america by the balls.

[jbh0research]

@stealthpakfa

And what would happen if the US defaults? All that money that China has would be worth nothing.

Meanwhile the US economy is three times that of China ($14.7 trillion to $5.9 trillion) and China has about $1.47 trillion of savings that it could use to leverage the US.

Better still, the US has a very high GDP per capita, China has a GDP per capita between that of Iran and Ecuador and a gini coefficient between Guinea-Bissau and Rwanda.

The facts speak for themselves.

[stealthpakfa]

@jbh0research

actually chinas economy is much bigger than it is now since its currency is undervalued by 50%.

its true exchange rate should be around 4 yuan per dollar.

chinas economy is 40 trillion yuan.

so 40/4 = $10 trillion.

that should be chinas true gdp if they revalued their currency to its proper level. since a stronger currency means a larger economy as gdp is based on nominal exchange rates.

u are totally clueless about economics and finance. i majored in economics and finance.

[nenna69]

@stealthpakfa Yes they do. China's exports to the US accounts for 20% of their total exports. America ceasing Chinese imports would be greatly harmful to China's economy. While China hold 11% of all privately owned US treasury securities. Dumping those securities would have hyper-inflationary effects on the US economy. So you could say that both are in a mutually assured destructive relationship economically meaning that no economic embargoes will be undertaken by both parties against each other

[stealthpakfa]

@nenna69 china has 80% exports to others.

US depends on china for its very existence.

the chinese can do without the US, thats why u are seeing china growing at 10% and the US growing at 1%. because china's domestic demand is bigger than american demand.

go china, destroy the US

[fourletteredword]

He was right on Iraq in 1990 and right on Iraq in 2003.

:(

[muaytb1]

Mearsheimer's analysis leads to 3 possible courses of actions

1. Stop China's economic development. i.e. make sure Chinese people live in poverty.

2. Break China up to pieces. i.e. WW3

3. 1&2.

As a former student of Mr. Mearshiemer, I really dread this type of thinking.

[muaytb1]

i took his class and i just can't agree with his theories

[888reventon]

I can only hope that anyone with a war like mentality as mr. mearsheimer never becomes the president of the united states....oh wait george bush was already elected and we all know how that turned out. It's people like these 2 that make the world a constant powder keg away from war.

[FAHayek89]

@888reventon Are you aware of the fact that Mearsheimer was a vocal opponent of Bush's wars?

[MiLSeLrAhC]

ideal? the most powerful? the most war mongering country in the world... after nazi germany..

[keepaopenmind]

You'd think nations/states would establish a world gov't along the lines of the original United States, not what it's become, but a union of sovereign nations with a limited federal gov't. If we can go 100 years without a world war, the UN might become that.

[amorolic]

Ok. the logic seems that if you think containing china will make US more powerful, then just do it containing china. Just bring it on! Standing on there and just talking won't get US stronger.

[MaLeizi]

American hegemony hasn't protected America too well recently, attempting to maintain it has hurt the American people immeasurably. They have much more to gain from a stable and strong China than from trying in vain to maintain hegemony. Why do the American people have to suffer just so the Pentagon can get a gold star?

[FAHayek89]

@MaLeizi In what ways do you think the US has attempted to maintain its hegemonic position? Mearsheimer was initially a vocal opponent of the war in Iraq because he argued that it would actually weaken our international position.

[clearner123]

This guy said the USA dominates the Western Hemisphere and don't want the Chinese presence. China is a threat because it will eventually want to dominate Asia. That is contradicting because he basically said the USA is all ready a threat to other nations in the Western Hemisphere because we dominate them.

And "WE MUST BE NUMBER ONE AND NO COMPETITION ARE ALLOWED!"

Damn, if you say China is a Dictatorship, then the USA must be an International Dictatorship.

So sad.

[FAHayek89]

@clearner123 You miss the point of structural offensive realism. Mearsheimer does not believe that the US has a special right to dominance. Offensive structural realism holds that it is the nature of the anarchic international system that EVERY state wants to be a hegemon because every state desires security. The intent of all other states is uncertain and may be hostile, so each state wants to maximize power to protect itself. Power provides it that security. NO one wants peer competitors.

[Munin0]

The biggest idiot I heard so far in this debate, "US hegemony is an insurance for US safety" is what he is basicly saying. He must have been sleeping during 9/11. He s an example why a lot of non-Americans see americans as "stupid people".

[FAHayek89]

@Munin0 9-11 was a horrible event, but did not fundamentally threaten the US's existence as a nation in the way that a powerful peer competitor nation state could. Compare the threats of the Europen great powers in the 1800s and early 1900s. For France, Germany was a threat to its very existence. For Poland, Russia and Germany were both existential threats. Those types of existential threats are far more important that limited terrorist attacks, and they are where hegemony matters.

[chunbai]

The US must not be too obsessed with its power, and projecting our fear onto our "competitors". We need to zoom out of our short "history of dominance" and recognize that, no power can sustain its dominance forever, whether militarily economically or ideologically.

It's better to go with the natural law than being narcissistic and irrational about our decline. It's better to seek alliance than enemies while still strong and respected. The world is not as dog-eat-dog as Mearsheimer portrays.

[betalover1]

He is blunt.

But the military superpower called the USA is losing a good fraction of its might in two very small countries in the world.

The greatest problem with military superpower, an (otherwise) progressive one, is that it always has to care about the afterwath that bankrupts it.

[virtuous8]

this guy is an evil idiot

[eightincher8]

this is absurd, we are one of the poorest countries in the world and has a small military barely enough to defend ourself but now being looked as a threat. dont believe those misleading trading figures and ridiculous prediction like china becoming a power or whatever. bullshit!!! we are no threat to anyone, we are a friednly nation.

[comedianFA]

sarcastically..

[FAHayek89]

@comedianFA Do you have an argument?

[comedianFA]

Best argument I ever heard.

[michael67394307]

is he trying to criticize China or USA? i think he is simply saying that USA is a control freak, and China will be the next control freak. How he becomes a professor at Univ of Chicago, i will never know.

[justawordaway]

China is already trying to dominate asia.

[danpt2000]

The American hawks seemed firm on their path towards creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[chapsroc]

The old saxon-frog stood up to look into the future and said "Back to the Future". To be specific, the "future" of pre-WWI Europe where all Euro powers had plans for 'pre-emptive' attacks on their neighbers.

Even the Dragon was breeding on the old frog's little belly (intellectually speaking), the old frog could not envision such a future.

[annarboriter]

I never ceases to amaze me as to how intellectes overestimate the strength of China. This country has cheap labor and greedy market in the US that will buy whatever crap it makes. This country is outstripping its own resources like breathable air and drinkable water. It is generating graduates who have no skills to create wealth. The CCP is the most corrupt entity in a society that must endure the daily insults of a system that has no basis in the rule of law. Fubai!

[banzaidawan]

Annarboriter: The last 29 years of economic rise of China has been achieved without much rule by law....so?

As for Fubai (corruption), this year's Transparency International ranking of world corruption puts China as 71 out of 200 countries in the world. Back in 1995, China was 2nd from dead last.

Give that a thought.

[1BuckeyeNation]

Blunt and to the point. I liked it.

[ioaz10]

asia is a jungle in many respects

organization is a good thing

[justawordaway]

Better than a commie shit :)

[ioaz10]

this guy is a noob

[popoTb]

dont fear CHina but embrace it!

dont hate it but love CHina!

I am chinese and the only thing on my mind is to make lots of MONEy JUST like most chinese do. But if america is taking me and my country as a threat..i might think that america wants a war and i will stop thinking about making lots of money!

if america keep this up "WHAT YOU FEAR IS WHAT YOU WILL GET"

[danpt2000]

Thats what westerners call a "self fulfilling prophecy."

[sanzar]

Not really... it's just classic realist theory, states don't need to have similar cultures and/or polical because in the end they're all ultimately power maximisers.

[bg24955]

good piont.howvever, it is based upon the assumption chinese are american-alike.

[XXXxxxXXXxxx11]

NO! It is based upon the assumption that some fundamental qualities are shared among ALL countries, namely that every country is mainly interested in its survival and that the stronger it becomes the safest.

[bg24955]

Thank you for your social-Darwinian input. We called it "barbarians", a term coined in old days to distinguish non-chinese. the professor remains me of the personal adviser of the Khan of Great Huns, the lord of whatever out there.

[bg24955]

" we must keep raiding china before they become stronger.for they would do the same to us (Huns), had the situation was reversed." - Huns' Motto.

[ONapulitanoPazzo]

Hey, it's not my input, it's indeed an assumption made by the Ir school of Realism. I assume u'r chinese and a little offended by that, which i understand. However the USA is acting with the same mindset as every other superpower has. In other words, it's nothing personal(against the chinese i mean), it's strictly business.