i would love to understand you but i cant speak english (especially english maths) very well :) but the thing with the black/white balls was nice! (i understand it)
Hey nice vid. I found a slightly different way to solve this problem...I made an 8x8 stochastic transition matrix where each cell is the probability of going to the next.
DId it all in software and got the exact same answer as you did at 7:39, so your work is totally correct :)
God I hope you didn't have to do all of that by hand...but if you did it's amazing you did it perfectly.
I'm *happy* to have watched this video :) and thanks for the explanation. It's a lot funnier than the dull proba. course I had ages ago. But lucky that I didn't have this problem during test or exam ^_^'
Proba. is a tricky thing. You might need to give more explanation to others how you get from
P(player 2 wins)
= P(P2W|HH)P(HH) + P(P2W|not HH)P(not HH)
(according to an earlier explanation you gave) to that longer expression.
I've had a very dark time with working with probabilities.. All I can remember is that most probabilities problems were solvable using a certain Poisson's Theorem (hope I got the name right), but I can't seem to remember it ..
It was probably something related to the P(A)=(P(A/B))*(P(B))+(P(A/notB))*(P(notB))
How would you apply this technique to winning the lottery? In the heads and tails game, you can reverse h to t or t to h. How would you reverse a number, after the person had predicted?
Its annoying. In school I'm sitting the lowest level possible for maths (foundation) yet I can follow all your videos fairly well, genuinley it's my teacher who is terrible and cant teach me anything :( life goes on
I'm so proud of myself! This is the first of your videos I've watched that I completely followed on the first watch! :D This seems like a good occasion to say thank you for posting them all, they're really interesting :D
If your friend says "Hey wait a minute, I suspect that the second player to choose is always more likely to win! You go first!", then he won't ever be more likely to win IF he don't know what he's doing (and you can still always score the odds if you choose non-random). I calculated the average of ALL the probabilities = 50%.
That means even a random first choice on your part, your friend will have 50% chance of winning on avg. Tip the odds in your favor by choosing a column with avg. prop < ½
This video explained the case you present really well, but it doesn't include the cases where neither player 1 nor player 2 win after 3 tosses which would so unless the game resets after a tie, there are additional ways for 1 or 2 to win on subsequent coin tosses. Wouldn't this make the odds of winning 2/3 in all cases providing player 2's second two choices are the same as player 1's first two?
If only you had been my math teacher! Thank you so very much for posting these lessons online. You are providing a wonderful service to anyone who would like to finally learn how to work out probabilities! Thank you for your generosity, singingbanana.
Probability is difficult for some people to fully understand but you explain things clearly.
I am studying for a degree in Mathematics and probability is my favourite part of Maths. After watching your videos you helped me fully understand this game so thank you.
I wish when I worked things out on paper they were that neat.
Yea good explaination. Derren is pesuasive I could imagion him leading them on to take a choice with low probability then use the higher proberbility outcomes for himself. Well done with the diagrams helped.
hmm im not entirely sure that the second video was neccisary, i thought it was pretty clear how it worked after the first video, very clever tho, sometimes the obvious, hides from those who over complicate things :)
The first video is the extreme case. It isn't obvious in the other cases until you do the maths. However that is where most expanations on the web stop.
But if you look at the large table in part 2, a lot of player 2's choices just give him a 50% or worse chance. You have to do all this maths before you find the strategy. The idea of flipping the middle coin isn't significant, it's just a way to remember the best choice. And for four or more coins the way to remember best choice is different
I would think that there is a link, however I'd also like to know if there was any way to work this mnemonic out of the maths, or if you just have to be lucky/skilled to spot it.
(btw this second video was definitely necessary. Just as you can learn how to use a calculator to solve equations, work out derivatives and integrals algebraically,but it doesn't make you smarter or better at maths)
I think the mnemonic question is a good one. When reading about it, I got the impression that the flipping the middle coin bit wasn't something significant, or insightful.
For n>3 I think you flip the last coin and put it at the front (so different from n=3 here). Again, I read no explanation why that would necessarily give you the best probability, but since that is true for all n>3 there is probably something in that. But I'm not sure it's worth beating yourself up for, for limited insight.
So for n=3, the trick is to flip the middle coin and put at the front (as explained in this video), but for all n>3 it's always the last coin you flip and put at the front?
I believe so (I may have remembered that wrong, but I think that's what it was). The first hit on a google search for Penney Ante is a teachnical paper for the optimum strategy in general. I'll send you the link too.
He is good. I will be watching. The week after is gambling, which sounds quite similar to the lottery show - in that there will be some maths in it. I think Derren quite likes the maths, he uses it a lot, to brilliant effect.
I did your puzzle while this was rendering. It's full of mistakes I want to change, but I thought it was important to get this one up quickly as it's in response to something topical. 14 slides took blummin' ages.
You're right, and thank you for pointing it out. For the balls my method was far more complicated than it needed to be, I was just demonstrating the rule we were about to use. For the coins, this is the best method of which I know.
Gah. Probability is definitely my weak point when it comes to math. There's just something about it that eludes me.
MrTanookiMario 1 week ago
i would love to understand you but i cant speak english (especially english maths) very well :) but the thing with the black/white balls was nice! (i understand it)
BaumannBiehl 1 month ago
Hey nice vid. I found a slightly different way to solve this problem...I made an 8x8 stochastic transition matrix where each cell is the probability of going to the next.
DId it all in software and got the exact same answer as you did at 7:39, so your work is totally correct :)
God I hope you didn't have to do all of that by hand...but if you did it's amazing you did it perfectly.
antares5245 4 months ago
i lost u in this part lol
kinglynx 6 months ago
I'm *happy* to have watched this video :) and thanks for the explanation. It's a lot funnier than the dull proba. course I had ages ago. But lucky that I didn't have this problem during test or exam ^_^'
Proba. is a tricky thing. You might need to give more explanation to others how you get from
P(player 2 wins)
= P(P2W|HH)P(HH) + P(P2W|not HH)P(not HH)
(according to an earlier explanation you gave) to that longer expression.
Horinius 7 months ago
I don't really get it, but, I like you're voice, so I'm continueing watching anyway XD
darklyXlit 8 months ago
I understand what you were saying but your were going a little bit fast
But its still a very good vid
bartjuu5 8 months ago
This has been flagged as spam show
Go to this Channel to see how to win the Lottery
ineedhelpp1 8 months ago
my head hurts :(
supersayin201 9 months ago
I've had a very dark time with working with probabilities.. All I can remember is that most probabilities problems were solvable using a certain Poisson's Theorem (hope I got the name right), but I can't seem to remember it ..
It was probably something related to the P(A)=(P(A/B))*(P(B))+(P(A/notB))*(P(notB))
Lightn0x 11 months ago
You dont need a bag to know that you have 2 WHITE BALLZ hahah xDDD
g0dl1k388 11 months ago
is it posible 4 player 1 to win
coolchickof2011 11 months ago
How would you apply this technique to winning the lottery? In the heads and tails game, you can reverse h to t or t to h. How would you reverse a number, after the person had predicted?
AmyPie97 1 year ago
Its annoying. In school I'm sitting the lowest level possible for maths (foundation) yet I can follow all your videos fairly well, genuinley it's my teacher who is terrible and cant teach me anything :( life goes on
mccahill124 1 year ago 7
@mccahill124 I hope you'll keep watching then. Just taking an interest shows you in a good light!
singingbanana 1 year ago 4
@mccahill124 keep surfing youtube for math presentations. there are many outstanding teachers here for all levels.
zebb1111 2 months ago
I'm so proud of myself! This is the first of your videos I've watched that I completely followed on the first watch! :D This seems like a good occasion to say thank you for posting them all, they're really interesting :D
tippytoemonkey 1 year ago
@tippytoemonkey Thank you.
singingbanana 1 year ago
Isit me or is there a buzzing sound in e video
LosDynasty 1 year ago
cool vidoes i like em learn a lot
fix520 1 year ago
Or, you can just do P(at least one white) = 1 - P(two black)!
RandomNinjaOfEvil 1 year ago
I still don't get it how to pick lottery numbers...
lay4life 1 year ago
If your friend says "Hey wait a minute, I suspect that the second player to choose is always more likely to win! You go first!", then he won't ever be more likely to win IF he don't know what he's doing (and you can still always score the odds if you choose non-random). I calculated the average of ALL the probabilities = 50%.
That means even a random first choice on your part, your friend will have 50% chance of winning on avg. Tip the odds in your favor by choosing a column with avg. prop < ½
FatherAbyss 2 years ago
Nice one!
singingbanana 2 years ago
This video explained the case you present really well, but it doesn't include the cases where neither player 1 nor player 2 win after 3 tosses which would so unless the game resets after a tie, there are additional ways for 1 or 2 to win on subsequent coin tosses. Wouldn't this make the odds of winning 2/3 in all cases providing player 2's second two choices are the same as player 1's first two?
pgittins 2 years ago
Oh my God my brain hurts..
MetalliDuke14X 2 years ago 2
If only you had been my math teacher! Thank you so very much for posting these lessons online. You are providing a wonderful service to anyone who would like to finally learn how to work out probabilities! Thank you for your generosity, singingbanana.
jaykay1053 2 years ago 10
Probability is difficult for some people to fully understand but you explain things clearly.
I am studying for a degree in Mathematics and probability is my favourite part of Maths. After watching your videos you helped me fully understand this game so thank you.
I wish when I worked things out on paper they were that neat.
zyzzyzus 2 years ago 10
Yea good explaination. Derren is pesuasive I could imagion him leading them on to take a choice with low probability then use the higher proberbility outcomes for himself. Well done with the diagrams helped.
AshleyOfJah 2 years ago
I still don't get it, it's not the game "who has the most good picks" right? Otherwise it would still 50-50?? Well maybe I'm a dumbass :p...
Luistervink 2 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
...makes no sense .......???????
jackhack51 2 years ago
That was marvellous - and now my brain has turned to jelly! Great video. x
TheHolySpirit 2 years ago
hmm im not entirely sure that the second video was neccisary, i thought it was pretty clear how it worked after the first video, very clever tho, sometimes the obvious, hides from those who over complicate things :)
theonetruebrew 2 years ago
The first video is the extreme case. It isn't obvious in the other cases until you do the maths. However that is where most expanations on the web stop.
But if you look at the large table in part 2, a lot of player 2's choices just give him a 50% or worse chance. You have to do all this maths before you find the strategy. The idea of flipping the middle coin isn't significant, it's just a way to remember the best choice. And for four or more coins the way to remember best choice is different
singingbanana 2 years ago
So there isn't a link between the best choice and the way to remember the best choice other than coincidence?
treemantris 2 years ago
I would think that there is a link, however I'd also like to know if there was any way to work this mnemonic out of the maths, or if you just have to be lucky/skilled to spot it.
(btw this second video was definitely necessary. Just as you can learn how to use a calculator to solve equations, work out derivatives and integrals algebraically,but it doesn't make you smarter or better at maths)
FatherAbyss 2 years ago
I think the mnemonic question is a good one. When reading about it, I got the impression that the flipping the middle coin bit wasn't something significant, or insightful.
For n>3 I think you flip the last coin and put it at the front (so different from n=3 here). Again, I read no explanation why that would necessarily give you the best probability, but since that is true for all n>3 there is probably something in that. But I'm not sure it's worth beating yourself up for, for limited insight.
singingbanana 2 years ago
So for n=3, the trick is to flip the middle coin and put at the front (as explained in this video), but for all n>3 it's always the last coin you flip and put at the front?
FatherAbyss 2 years ago
I believe so (I may have remembered that wrong, but I think that's what it was). The first hit on a google search for Penney Ante is a teachnical paper for the optimum strategy in general. I'll send you the link too.
singingbanana 2 years ago
i wish i could watch Derren Brown it sounds good...
Nemesiss120 2 years ago
YouTube is your friend. Search "Derren Brown lottery".
singingbanana 2 years ago
Wow.This was really cool Thanks Very much!
Nemesiss120 2 years ago
But i am a little skeptical...Oh uhh did the explanation video came out i cant find it anywhere
Nemesiss120 2 years ago
Yes, search for user waackomann
singingbanana 2 years ago
nice trick and you are really smart!!
endless0140 2 years ago
On friday:Derren Brown how to control the nation i cant wait for it !!!!!
charizard1357911 2 years ago
He is good. I will be watching. The week after is gambling, which sounds quite similar to the lottery show - in that there will be some maths in it. I think Derren quite likes the maths, he uses it a lot, to brilliant effect.
singingbanana 2 years ago
This was incredibly complicated, but I'm sure it was worth it.
Thanks for the explanation, Singingbanana!
CharlesOBlack 2 years ago
I try to be as clear as possible, but if I could I would make some changes. Dash it. The end result is pretty cool though.
singingbanana 2 years ago
You worked hard on this one! You completed my puzzle the same night you did this?!
Error081688 2 years ago
I did your puzzle while this was rendering. It's full of mistakes I want to change, but I thought it was important to get this one up quickly as it's in response to something topical. 14 slides took blummin' ages.
singingbanana 2 years ago
Terrific! Can I win the Lotto now please?
pubwebmaster 2 years ago
I weighed six oxen and can predict next week lotto balls to be 02 19 20 21 32 and 5000.
singingbanana 2 years ago
hahaha
Error081688 2 years ago
Nice trick.
I'm gonna try this on my friends!
Flexo013 2 years ago
in the case with the W/B balls you can use:
P(AL1W) = 1 - P(B,B) = 1 - 3/5*2/4 = 1 - 3/10 = 7/10
my question is, can you use the prob complement in the coin game to simplify the maths?
scotland7yard 2 years ago
You're right, and thank you for pointing it out. For the balls my method was far more complicated than it needed to be, I was just demonstrating the rule we were about to use. For the coins, this is the best method of which I know.
singingbanana 2 years ago
Cool, these are called permutations right? This was really cool, certainly gonna try this.
Strijdparel 2 years ago
Permutations are ways to order objects, so HHT HTH THH are different permutations of HHT. More on that in the next video.
singingbanana 2 years ago
I think I found a mistake on your posters.
On the poster that's shown at 7:50 (that same poster is also shown in Part 1) the Prob P2 wins column reads:
7/8 3/4 2/3 2/3 7/8 3/4 2/3 2/3
I think you meant it to read:
7/8 3/4 2/3 2/3 2/3 2/3 3/4 7/8
Am I right?
dkusalik 2 years ago 2
You are right, I have already put an annotation in part 1, but the same is tue here. But very well spotted.
singingbanana 2 years ago
Nice seiries :D
bobby1829387 2 years ago
Yet another great video from the banana man xx. Love your channel
MewHamHead 2 years ago 2
Cool! I'm gonna try this!
ViktorBluhme 2 years ago
first comment yay:) great vid
loukas1997 2 years ago 2