I finally got it when you explained that every time you pick a peanut and switch you win (because the host has to reveal a peanut), and because it's more likely that you picked a peanut in the first place, you have a greater chance of winning when you switch, every single time.
What if there were TWO contestants and each of these two contestants were ardent mathematicians, both with an innate understanding of the principle behind the Hall paradox. After each choose a door, and the third unchosen door was opened to reveal a zonk, would each of the two players, if given the chance, leap at the opportunity to accept the other fellow's door? (And in this scenario the 2 scholars are rivals who would not agree to sell the car and split the proceeds) Hmm?
What if the money is behind a door that you didnt pick but the peanut is behind the door next to it so that the money isnt where the host's peanut is but the other door has a peanut and wasnt the one you picked so that when you change your mind the peanut is where it was before the money door was selected without knowing where the peanut was?
i may be missing something, but what happens if you pick the door with the cash, and the host still has to reveal one of the other doors, just in case you want to change your mind because he knows you are right?
@lightningmunk Then you lose. But there is a 33.3% chance that you will pick the door with the cash. I understand what you are saying. But at the end of the day, the only thing the contestant has on his side is probablity. In perfect conditions, without some sort of behind the scenes BS, you will win the cash 66.6% of the time.
I mean, there could be no cash. They could put a peanut behind all three doors. Lol.
Imagine this with 100 doors. Say you choose a door and the host (who knows where the prize is) shows you 98 doors that do not have the prize. Who do you think has the prize? yours or the other? You do not have a 50/50 cause no matter what you pick there was still an initial 1/100 chance you were right. The host can narrow it down to your case and one other regardless of if yours is the right case. The key is the host knowing where it is and opening the others. In this case switching is 99%
My simplest way to think about it is that you have an initial 2/3 chance of getting a peanut... if you hit a peanut he has to show you the one and only other peanut... in this case switching works every single time. Essentially you are hoping to hit a peanut and if you use this strategy when you hit a peanut at the beginning you win every time... thus your 2/3 chance every time you use the strategy.
AHH thanks you, I get it. I just had to think outside the box a little (wich is really hard for me) and then I got it! But... What if the car is on the door you're on? D:
yes, 3 choices at the beginning. That is actually game nr 1 - with no real result. U choose - host opens a bad door an that is where game nr 2 begins - just choose 1 door of 2! Your change is 50/50! No matter, what U choose, the reality is that U actually choose between 2 doors, it just looks like U had 3 choices. Because the host always reviles 1 bad door you ALWAYS end up with a wrong door and the price 50/50 so the hole came is demagogy in a way
think of it this way imagine if there were 100 doors and 99 had peanuts and 1 had a prize. now imagine if after you picked one door 98 other doors were opened all revealing peanuts. the odds at the original haven't changed there is only a 1% chance that the door you have has the prize with a 99% chance that the other door has it. limiting the number of doors doesn't change the problem on the chance of the first door you pick having the prize.
stopped at 1 min with answers. to start with each door has 33% chance of being the door with the cash. once you pick the door it is a 1/3 chance of success. revealing a door with a peanut does not change the odds that you started with so that means there is a 66.66 chance the other door have the prize. though it appears 50/50 that doesn't factor the original which one door only has 33%.
@EmeraldCharizard5353 no. the notion that a 50/50 odds of winning is an illusion. unless you change doors, the host opening the junk door doesn't change your odds at all. it's the knee-jerk reaction to think it's 50/50 at that point, but it's not. unless you change doors, you remain at 33%.
@CarKid14 in the original they used the goat and car and prizes. I used peanuts and cash because of the animation I link to at the end of the video...
@axemurderer27 i have a qeustion for you if a man has lied every single time he has communicated with you he has lied and he tells you everytime ive said something toyou its been a lie is he telling the truth or lieing
I finally got it when you explained that every time you pick a peanut and switch you win (because the host has to reveal a peanut), and because it's more likely that you picked a peanut in the first place, you have a greater chance of winning when you switch, every single time.
kraydos 5 days ago
when the fuck in life will knowing this be helpfull?
andrecheats 3 weeks ago
interesting..is it impossible without swap my first door and win the bag of cash?
Mongolia2468 1 month ago
What if there were TWO contestants and each of these two contestants were ardent mathematicians, both with an innate understanding of the principle behind the Hall paradox. After each choose a door, and the third unchosen door was opened to reveal a zonk, would each of the two players, if given the chance, leap at the opportunity to accept the other fellow's door? (And in this scenario the 2 scholars are rivals who would not agree to sell the car and split the proceeds) Hmm?
~ Johnny Radionic ™
Johnnyradionic 1 month ago
nice username...
greenninja289 2 months ago
This has been flagged as spam show
What if the money is behind a door that you didnt pick but the peanut is behind the door next to it so that the money isnt where the host's peanut is but the other door has a peanut and wasnt the one you picked so that when you change your mind the peanut is where it was before the money door was selected without knowing where the peanut was?
Ictrlurmnd 2 months ago
Comment removed
Ictrlurmnd 2 months ago
FAKE AND GAY
rseebs 2 months ago
i may be missing something, but what happens if you pick the door with the cash, and the host still has to reveal one of the other doors, just in case you want to change your mind because he knows you are right?
lightningmunk 2 months ago
@lightningmunk Then you lose. But there is a 33.3% chance that you will pick the door with the cash. I understand what you are saying. But at the end of the day, the only thing the contestant has on his side is probablity. In perfect conditions, without some sort of behind the scenes BS, you will win the cash 66.6% of the time.
I mean, there could be no cash. They could put a peanut behind all three doors. Lol.
DGrant1010 1 month ago
when i saw this in 21 i was wtf. Now its explained. Thank you
7m8a6k 2 months ago 3
Imagine this with 100 doors. Say you choose a door and the host (who knows where the prize is) shows you 98 doors that do not have the prize. Who do you think has the prize? yours or the other? You do not have a 50/50 cause no matter what you pick there was still an initial 1/100 chance you were right. The host can narrow it down to your case and one other regardless of if yours is the right case. The key is the host knowing where it is and opening the others. In this case switching is 99%
thumm99 2 months ago
@thumm99 when you put it that way, this is the first time this has actually made sense to me
Heacockfas1138 1 month ago
My simplest way to think about it is that you have an initial 2/3 chance of getting a peanut... if you hit a peanut he has to show you the one and only other peanut... in this case switching works every single time. Essentially you are hoping to hit a peanut and if you use this strategy when you hit a peanut at the beginning you win every time... thus your 2/3 chance every time you use the strategy.
thumm99 2 months ago
AHH thanks you, I get it. I just had to think outside the box a little (wich is really hard for me) and then I got it! But... What if the car is on the door you're on? D:
timewasteland 2 months ago
Well... although it looks right, it is wrong.
yes, 3 choices at the beginning. That is actually game nr 1 - with no real result. U choose - host opens a bad door an that is where game nr 2 begins - just choose 1 door of 2! Your change is 50/50! No matter, what U choose, the reality is that U actually choose between 2 doors, it just looks like U had 3 choices. Because the host always reviles 1 bad door you ALWAYS end up with a wrong door and the price 50/50 so the hole came is demagogy in a way
ValmisFilm 3 months ago
Comment removed
Lijacote 3 months ago
Brilliantly explained. Thanks.
vladutz00ify 4 months ago
Comment removed
GaijinNH 4 months ago
I'm psycic, so I always pick the cash first. Therefore, It would be in my best interest to stay with my first choice
8uddy8oy 5 months ago
i just kill the tv host and rob the money
ajaykeer23939 5 months ago
think of it this way imagine if there were 100 doors and 99 had peanuts and 1 had a prize. now imagine if after you picked one door 98 other doors were opened all revealing peanuts. the odds at the original haven't changed there is only a 1% chance that the door you have has the prize with a 99% chance that the other door has it. limiting the number of doors doesn't change the problem on the chance of the first door you pick having the prize.
Greginda11 5 months ago
stopped at 1 min with answers. to start with each door has 33% chance of being the door with the cash. once you pick the door it is a 1/3 chance of success. revealing a door with a peanut does not change the odds that you started with so that means there is a 66.66 chance the other door have the prize. though it appears 50/50 that doesn't factor the original which one door only has 33%.
Greginda11 5 months ago
The chance of winning is always 50/50. The host never really gives you three choices.
MrRyanholder 5 months ago
I prefer the peanut :)
MedicalChemistry 6 months ago
@MedicalChemistry ...But money can buy you many peanuts. Refer to this video: /watch?v=VQpc0QfBaMc&feature=related
axemurderer27 6 months ago 8
@axemurderer27 But. You can plant peanut, then harvest it , sell it for cash , and continue this proces until you will have a bag of cash.
TheMrGoral 3 months ago
good
piappiap 6 months ago
well explained!
youtu13ejunkie 7 months ago
wait was it ever really 1/3 chance because no matter what one is a junk door and it is shown to you so then its 50/50 either way?
EmeraldCharizard5353 7 months ago
@EmeraldCharizard5353 no. the notion that a 50/50 odds of winning is an illusion. unless you change doors, the host opening the junk door doesn't change your odds at all. it's the knee-jerk reaction to think it's 50/50 at that point, but it's not. unless you change doors, you remain at 33%.
axemurderer27 7 months ago
@axemurderer27 Unfortunatley this is false, after opening a door it completely changes your odds, dont you guys have to take statistics anymore?
deathBYpinata 1 month ago
Thanks, now it makes sense to me
starcristen2 8 months ago
Very nice. I get it now!
joshgiscool18 1 year ago
thanks, u just done my maths homework :p lol jk but great explanation but iswear it ws 1 car and 2 goats?
CarKid14 1 year ago
@CarKid14 in the original they used the goat and car and prizes. I used peanuts and cash because of the animation I link to at the end of the video...
axemurderer27 1 year ago
Thanks. This is the most short winded explanation (which is a good thing) that I could find on youtube.
ScooterMcBean 1 year ago
@ScooterMcBean thanks a lot. hope it made the problem understandable for you
axemurderer27 1 year ago
@axemurderer27 i have a qeustion for you if a man has lied every single time he has communicated with you he has lied and he tells you everytime ive said something toyou its been a lie is he telling the truth or lieing
MELEECONQUEST 9 months ago