Another way to explain this is the Law of Large Numbers, and examine die rolls.
Suppose you have a perfectly stochastic die in front of you; now, if you roll that die 6,000,000,000,000,000,000 times, how many times do you expect to win, if your only winning condition is rolling a 6?
The correct response is: on average, a 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 times.
Obviously, if winning was a 50-50 thing, wouldn't you expect to win, on average, 3,000,000,000,000,000,000 rolls?
I am a roleplayer; I have rolled more dice than you will ever lay your hands on. And there is something you obviously haven't noticed: you are being inconsistent (or, I might hypothesize, really sloppy): if your claim had any validity, then you'd roll a 6 3,000,000,000,000,000,000 times.
By the way, your guarantee is bullocks: I took a die that's quite fair and then rolled it 12 times, just so I would not be simply dismissing you.
lets say i decided to bet you ten whole british pounds that your dead wrong in your assertion. based on the number of people on the comments section who are disagreeing with you do you still think the probabilities are 50-50 that you'l win the bet?
this guy either is going to give me a doller or he isnt, its 50-50. this guy either is going to give me two dollers or he isnt, it's 50-50. this guy either is going to give me three dollers or he isnt, its 50-50...
so in theory even if it is only 50-50 i should have an infinte amount of money from this guy.
so. there are only two outcomes. either i piss intel computer chips and can survive after eating a live grenade or i cant. it should be 50-50 right? by the same token i have a 50% chance of walking through walls, becomind a smurf, slaying a dragon, appearing in a tv documentory about ACDC and eating my own head.
Well, if your 'logic' makes any sense, why don't you just go out and win the lottery? All you have to do is pick your numbers, and once you do so, you'll have a 50/50 chance of winning - because either they will come up or they won't. So you only need to enter the lottery a handful of times and its highly likely you'll win at least once. In fact, I'm highly surprised the lottery companies haven't gone bust - since everyone has a 50% chance of winning, they must be paying out trillions each week.
You lack even the most basic understanding of statistics: while it's true that any card will or will not be the Six of Hearts, the possibility of any card being the Six of Cards is based on a formula that differs according to the data we have; in this case, it's equal to 1/52, or ~1,923%. The reason it is not 1/2 or 50% is that, while there are two conditions, it being or not being the Six of Hearts, they are not equally probable (1/52 versus 51/52).
So without any knowledge of the cards would the person answering the question "is this the 6 of hearts or not?" what would their chances be according to them?
The probability is the number of times you may be right to the total possibilities.
Your confusion stems from the false idea that because there are two possible ways to respond to the question whether it is the card in question, that means that the two possibilities are equally likely.
However, the six of cards appears only once in any normal deck of cards; that means that, of all 52 cards, only one will be correct for the guess of 6♥. That gives exactly 1/52, because there are 52 cards.
you are 51 times more likely to be wrong than you are to be right. the sum of all the individual probabilities must be 1. you have 52 possible outcomes. therefor if you let the probability it is the 6 of hearts be a.
So deciding on an outcome in advance, regardless of how remote, instantaneously changes its odds to 50%? Interesting... can you produce any evidence to support this?
Actually um... your card equation was wrong. That would be 1/52 chance. I myself am a Christian, but the whole card thing isn't going to help much. Cause you would have around a 2% chance of getting the 6.
I probably am repeating something said below several times but I will anyway.
To quote Richard Dawkins "Is there a 50-50 chance that god exists? How about Zeus? The Flying Spaghetti Monster? The Celestial Teapot?
According to your 'logic' you can deduce that my mom is god... or at least has a 50% chance of being god. Or wait... maybe I'm god. That would be cool.
In unknown data the answer is yes to all the above. with known data the answer is variable. For instance The God of Israel is known by many facets and factors and is independently known to be REAL and existing by over 4 billion adherents. God is 100% REAL.
your trying to tell me that the possibility of there being a flying spaghetti monster is 50 50 even though we KNOW it is made up?
what fucking universe do you live in dude!!!!, the one where the laws of nature work the wrong way round, the one where in maths 2 plus 2 always equal a different number?
Is the odds of the answer to 2 plus 2 50 50 that it will be 4?
In blind choices there are no knowledge of the variables and of course the knowledge has effect on the choice made. If you give me a wager with all the exact variable information I could know with almost 100% accuracy some choices for instance if I know for sure that a dealer is going to deal me a winning hand on purpose.
well done, so could anyone, to know all the variables in any given situation is not really sensible, the calculations needed to generate the model would be pretty intense, and then try bringing life into it, bird flyes though the air, exactly how will it move given wind speed, air pressure etc.
The odds against you finding the correct solution are stacked into the impossible!
Excuse me what? All binary choices are 50:50? What school did you learn this nonsense from? If you buy a lottery ticket do you have a 50% chance of winning? What the hell are you talking about?
Depends on the choice, but that doesn't back your argument. You have to choose the number you pick in a lottery, either its wrong or its not, that doesn't give the lottery ticket a 50% chance of winning.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW, THANKS FOR CLEARING THAT UP!
HA HA HA HA HA HA, I asked a friend of mine that is a pure mathematics PHD student and he laughed out loud at you and what he said I won't repeat because it was rude, but it was derogatory in the extreme!
A student that finished in the top 10 percentile in the country at the end of last year and is toped to be big news concerning some brilliant thesis on curves, I know, curves, but this guy knows his shit, howmany PHD's do you have Bodi?
ha ha ha, bodi, you are wrong, your so wrong it just isn't funny!, I'm not upset I am amused with your unbelievable ignorance of the subject matter!.
The likely hood of there being a good is calculated on millions of variables, how can it be 50/50 if there are so many variables, you simply don't understand what odds are!.
Because of this logical reasoning; Pascal's Wager and this type of 50/50 thinking when it comes to god has been debunked by the eternal question. Which one? and/or Which god? ;o)
Interesting... Because here are the names other gods; starting with the god that jehovah(the god of the bible) mentioned himself: Baal, ahura mazda, ammon-ra, zeus, odin, jupiter, allah, jehovah, and their born of a virgin half-godling sons(mithra, krishna, hercules, osiris, jesus, apollo, thor)
Each exclusive truth claim precludes the others(like your example with the cards)... The problem lies with which card/god. If you believe in that sort of thing then it would behoove you to pick the right card/god out of hundreds, or be placed in one of the many hells.
Interesting perspective... But it is Pascal's Wager rehashed. The ultimate problem is not just a 50/50 choice when it comes to literally hundreds of religions that are making exclusive truth claims about(the one true "god", a heaven, a hell, and what you must do to enter either one).
What's funnier is he's using this as a reason NOT to gamble. If the illogical scenario he's saying was true, it would be a very good reason to gamble as you could not lose money in the long run.
So not only has he failed to understand probability. He's failed to understand the implications of what he's saying. Bod, you're advocating gambling with your "logic".
Seems that way but it cuts both ways If someone told you you had 5 cards 4 of which were winners you would assume you have an 80% chance of winning but as soon as it is turned to a single event it will still be 50/50. All single events with 2 options are divided in half.
Maybe funny but it's true. I tell you what according to you if I take 47 cards out of a deck you would have a 90% chance of winning the pick, would you like to bet a large sum of money? Remember you think your odds have improved, right?
I think your starting to get it because you realize that removing the 47 cards means to not count those 47 cards in the equation likewise what I am saying is you can only count the card you pick and it will either be the 6 or not be the 6 it is a 50/50 bet.
If you say "next card will be a 6 of hearts" there is a 1 in 52 chance it will be TRUE, and a 51 in 52 chance it will be FALSE, Not 50/50.
It is YOU who have no understanding of statistics whatsoever!
To explain further; Yes a thing may be either TRUE of FALSE, but this in no way means that the PROBABILITY of TRUE and FALSE will be the same (true/false = 50/50).
E.G.'6 of hearts' in a 52 card deck: True/false probability =1/51
Each time a card is picked the possibility of it being one of the other cards is just as viable as it being the picked card. In other words you have a chance of losing 51 times in a row. a sequence of losses would not increase the chance of a win.
well if you keep picking up cards and not fight the 6 of hearts, then the probability the next one will be the 6 of hearts goes up because there's less hearts left.
No the probability does not go up suppose the six is on the bottom having 2 cards left if you bet all your money on the next card you would lose all your money, right?
If you were to randomly pick a card out of a deck you would yes have a 1/52 probability of picking a "6 of hearts" However if you picked out a card and said whats the chances of this card being a "6 of hearts" when I flip it over that would be 50/50. Say you have 5 cards face down and one of the cards is the six before you select which card you think is the six you have 20% chance after you decide which card you want the chance that it will be the 6 on the flip is 50/50.
WHAT? You think the probability changes (improve to 0.5) when you make a guess at the result?
If you pick a card there is a probability of 1/52 that it is 6Hearts. If you pick a card, say "I think it is 6Hearts" the probability you are correct is 1/52, same as before!
Another way to explain this is the Law of Large Numbers, and examine die rolls.
Suppose you have a perfectly stochastic die in front of you; now, if you roll that die 6,000,000,000,000,000,000 times, how many times do you expect to win, if your only winning condition is rolling a 6?
The correct response is: on average, a 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 times.
Obviously, if winning was a 50-50 thing, wouldn't you expect to win, on average, 3,000,000,000,000,000,000 rolls?
RaspK 2 years ago
But you agree it is true that I could roll a 6 4,000,000,000,000,000,000 time right?
In -fact I guarantee if you roll a die 12 times you will roll a 6 four times try it and get back to us but only do it once.
Bodhitharta 2 years ago
I am a roleplayer; I have rolled more dice than you will ever lay your hands on. And there is something you obviously haven't noticed: you are being inconsistent (or, I might hypothesize, really sloppy): if your claim had any validity, then you'd roll a 6 3,000,000,000,000,000,000 times.
By the way, your guarantee is bullocks: I took a die that's quite fair and then rolled it 12 times, just so I would not be simply dismissing you.
The result: 1 out of 12 rolls; that's typical.
RaspK 2 years ago
lets say i decided to bet you ten whole british pounds that your dead wrong in your assertion. based on the number of people on the comments section who are disagreeing with you do you still think the probabilities are 50-50 that you'l win the bet?
sean14916 2 years ago
this guy either is going to give me a doller or he isnt, its 50-50. this guy either is going to give me two dollers or he isnt, it's 50-50. this guy either is going to give me three dollers or he isnt, its 50-50...
so in theory even if it is only 50-50 i should have an infinte amount of money from this guy.
sean14916 2 years ago
if i eat a live grenade will i live?
sean14916 2 years ago
do i piss intel computer chips?
sean14916 2 years ago
That is not a gambling question
Bodhitharta 2 years ago
No, but your logic could still be applied to it. Or indeed any question with a yes/no answer, regardless of how nonsensical.
Lilith112358 2 years ago
so. there are only two outcomes. either i piss intel computer chips and can survive after eating a live grenade or i cant. it should be 50-50 right? by the same token i have a 50% chance of walking through walls, becomind a smurf, slaying a dragon, appearing in a tv documentory about ACDC and eating my own head.
sean14916 2 years ago
Well, if your 'logic' makes any sense, why don't you just go out and win the lottery? All you have to do is pick your numbers, and once you do so, you'll have a 50/50 chance of winning - because either they will come up or they won't. So you only need to enter the lottery a handful of times and its highly likely you'll win at least once. In fact, I'm highly surprised the lottery companies haven't gone bust - since everyone has a 50% chance of winning, they must be paying out trillions each week.
Tyrmidace 3 years ago
You lack even the most basic understanding of statistics: while it's true that any card will or will not be the Six of Hearts, the possibility of any card being the Six of Cards is based on a formula that differs according to the data we have; in this case, it's equal to 1/52, or ~1,923%. The reason it is not 1/2 or 50% is that, while there are two conditions, it being or not being the Six of Hearts, they are not equally probable (1/52 versus 51/52).
Alea iacta est. :P
RaspK 4 years ago
So without any knowledge of the cards would the person answering the question "is this the 6 of hearts or not?" what would their chances be according to them?
Bodhitharta 2 years ago
The probability is the number of times you may be right to the total possibilities.
Your confusion stems from the false idea that because there are two possible ways to respond to the question whether it is the card in question, that means that the two possibilities are equally likely.
However, the six of cards appears only once in any normal deck of cards; that means that, of all 52 cards, only one will be correct for the guess of 6♥. That gives exactly 1/52, because there are 52 cards.
RaspK 2 years ago
1 in 52. because there are 52 cards.
1 of them is the card you want.
51 of them arnt the card you want.
you are 51 times more likely to be wrong than you are to be right. the sum of all the individual probabilities must be 1. you have 52 possible outcomes. therefor if you let the probability it is the 6 of hearts be a.
51a + a = 1
52a = 1
a = 1/52
sean14916 2 years ago
There is only a 2% chance before the choice is made, after the choice it will only consist of 2 possibilities.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
So deciding on an outcome in advance, regardless of how remote, instantaneously changes its odds to 50%? Interesting... can you produce any evidence to support this?
Lilith112358 2 years ago
Actually um... your card equation was wrong. That would be 1/52 chance. I myself am a Christian, but the whole card thing isn't going to help much. Cause you would have around a 2% chance of getting the 6.
Uncloudedcobra 4 years ago
I probably am repeating something said below several times but I will anyway.
To quote Richard Dawkins "Is there a 50-50 chance that god exists? How about Zeus? The Flying Spaghetti Monster? The Celestial Teapot?
According to your 'logic' you can deduce that my mom is god... or at least has a 50% chance of being god. Or wait... maybe I'm god. That would be cool.
mageling 4 years ago
In unknown data the answer is yes to all the above. with known data the answer is variable. For instance The God of Israel is known by many facets and factors and is independently known to be REAL and existing by over 4 billion adherents. God is 100% REAL.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
No it isn't, the answer is no.
If the variables are unknown then the idea is considered flawed until proved other wise.
Millions of ppl bought the spice girls album, you trying to tell me it was because it was actually any good.
Many Nazi's killed millions of Jews, are you trying to tell me that it was right to do so because so many ppl thought it was a goo idea.
Idiot!
joebot1 4 years ago
your trying to tell me that the possibility of there being a flying spaghetti monster is 50 50 even though we KNOW it is made up?
what fucking universe do you live in dude!!!!, the one where the laws of nature work the wrong way round, the one where in maths 2 plus 2 always equal a different number?
Is the odds of the answer to 2 plus 2 50 50 that it will be 4?
joebot1 4 years ago
This only applies to unknown data.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
so lets say for example we didnt know about rocks.
does that mean they have a 50% chance of flying skyward?
Im telling you your locig is just not right at all.
if you continue to insist that it is ... ill have to make some bets against you.
memoryofakiss 4 years ago
Responding to Bod's response to my video response here just so others are more likely participate in the discussion.
Bod.. " Blind choices are not the same as knowledgeable choices."
From your response it would seem that you suggest that knowing the details (read variables) of something affects the probability of an event.
I would argue that it is the variables that set the probability and knowledge of them has no effect on the probability.
memoryofakiss 4 years ago
In blind choices there are no knowledge of the variables and of course the knowledge has effect on the choice made. If you give me a wager with all the exact variable information I could know with almost 100% accuracy some choices for instance if I know for sure that a dealer is going to deal me a winning hand on purpose.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
well done, so could anyone, to know all the variables in any given situation is not really sensible, the calculations needed to generate the model would be pretty intense, and then try bringing life into it, bird flyes though the air, exactly how will it move given wind speed, air pressure etc.
The odds against you finding the correct solution are stacked into the impossible!
joebot1 4 years ago
Bod man ...
If you go outdoors and hold a rock out at arms length and wager it will fly into the sky there is a 50 50 chance you will be correct?
I must be really unlucky because i tried this a few hundred times and they all seemed to fall down rather than fly into the sky.
please explain why.
memoryofakiss 4 years ago
You have a knowledge of rocks.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
Bodhitharta:"You have a knowledge of rocks. "
I would you have knowledge on par with that of rocks.
memoryofakiss 4 years ago
bah ... i screwed that up ... should have read
"I would argue that Bohitharta has knowledge on par with that of rocks"
memoryofakiss 4 years ago
Excuse me what? All binary choices are 50:50? What school did you learn this nonsense from? If you buy a lottery ticket do you have a 50% chance of winning? What the hell are you talking about?
websnarf 4 years ago
Once you make a choice you have either picked the right choice or the wrong choice. True or False?
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
ha ha ha ah ah ha, I love you man!!!!! :lol:
joebot1 4 years ago
Depends on the choice, but that doesn't back your argument. You have to choose the number you pick in a lottery, either its wrong or its not, that doesn't give the lottery ticket a 50% chance of winning.
websnarf 4 years ago
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW, THANKS FOR CLEARING THAT UP!
HA HA HA HA HA HA, I asked a friend of mine that is a pure mathematics PHD student and he laughed out loud at you and what he said I won't repeat because it was rude, but it was derogatory in the extreme!
lol
joebot1 4 years ago
You did say he was a PHD "student", right? Well, I guess that about explains it.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
A student that finished in the top 10 percentile in the country at the end of last year and is toped to be big news concerning some brilliant thesis on curves, I know, curves, but this guy knows his shit, howmany PHD's do you have Bodi?
joebot1 4 years ago
Don't be upset! He is simply wrong, decisions once selected are only right or wrong 50/50. Clearly you must understand the point.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
ha ha ha, bodi, you are wrong, your so wrong it just isn't funny!, I'm not upset I am amused with your unbelievable ignorance of the subject matter!.
The likely hood of there being a good is calculated on millions of variables, how can it be 50/50 if there are so many variables, you simply don't understand what odds are!.
joebot1 4 years ago
Prt3:
Because of this logical reasoning; Pascal's Wager and this type of 50/50 thinking when it comes to god has been debunked by the eternal question. Which one? and/or Which god? ;o)
Katalyzt
Katalyzt 4 years ago
There is only one God!
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
Prt1:
Interesting... Because here are the names other gods; starting with the god that jehovah(the god of the bible) mentioned himself: Baal, ahura mazda, ammon-ra, zeus, odin, jupiter, allah, jehovah, and their born of a virgin half-godling sons(mithra, krishna, hercules, osiris, jesus, apollo, thor)
Katalyzt
Katalyzt 4 years ago
Prt2:
If you need; I can name hundreds of others "gods", who make exclusive claims but I suspect that you get my point.
Katalyzt
Katalyzt 4 years ago
You cannot find me "gods" who make exclusive claims.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
Could you please elaborate? Because I do hate wasting my time. ;o)
Katalyzt
Katalyzt 4 years ago
Prt2:
Each exclusive truth claim precludes the others(like your example with the cards)... The problem lies with which card/god. If you believe in that sort of thing then it would behoove you to pick the right card/god out of hundreds, or be placed in one of the many hells.
Katalyzt
Katalyzt 4 years ago
Prt1:
Interesting perspective... But it is Pascal's Wager rehashed. The ultimate problem is not just a 50/50 choice when it comes to literally hundreds of religions that are making exclusive truth claims about(the one true "god", a heaven, a hell, and what you must do to enter either one).
Katalyzt
Katalyzt 4 years ago
What's funnier is he's using this as a reason NOT to gamble. If the illogical scenario he's saying was true, it would be a very good reason to gamble as you could not lose money in the long run.
So not only has he failed to understand probability. He's failed to understand the implications of what he's saying. Bod, you're advocating gambling with your "logic".
JeefCakes 4 years ago
Seems that way but it cuts both ways If someone told you you had 5 cards 4 of which were winners you would assume you have an 80% chance of winning but as soon as it is turned to a single event it will still be 50/50. All single events with 2 options are divided in half.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
No they are not.
JeefCakes 4 years ago
Yes, they are! Choose now black out of black and greeen what are your chances of success?
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
Black and green what???
JeefCakes 4 years ago
Answer the question with the information you have.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
You haven't given me enough information moron. By what process is the winning colour selected?
JeefCakes 4 years ago
seems resonable, 50% true or false
lionslicer9999 4 years ago
"I know that god is 100% fact." HAHAHAHA!!!!!
oscillator 4 years ago
If you contact me, I will try to show you how you have been mislead.
darren8306 4 years ago
You broke my head...
mk2weber 4 years ago
Well he started it. :)
websnarf 4 years ago
AHAHAHAHHAHAA it's as funny as I hoped it would be!
JeefCakes 4 years ago
Maybe funny but it's true. I tell you what according to you if I take 47 cards out of a deck you would have a 90% chance of winning the pick, would you like to bet a large sum of money? Remember you think your odds have improved, right?
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
No, Bodhi!
You would have a probability of 0.2, or '1 in 5', or a 20% chance.
A 90% chance of getting 1 particular card out of a set of 5? How the heck did you come up with this?
adparker314 4 years ago
I think your starting to get it because you realize that removing the 47 cards means to not count those 47 cards in the equation likewise what I am saying is you can only count the card you pick and it will either be the 6 or not be the 6 it is a 50/50 bet.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
NO! If you have 5 cards (Say 2,3,4,5,6Hearts), If you pick one there is 0.2 prob of it being the 6 (same for it being the 2,3,4 and 5).
adparker314 4 years ago
That is completely false!
If you say "next card will be a 6 of hearts" there is a 1 in 52 chance it will be TRUE, and a 51 in 52 chance it will be FALSE, Not 50/50.
It is YOU who have no understanding of statistics whatsoever!
To explain further; Yes a thing may be either TRUE of FALSE, but this in no way means that the PROBABILITY of TRUE and FALSE will be the same (true/false = 50/50).
E.G.'6 of hearts' in a 52 card deck: True/false probability =1/51
adparker314 4 years ago
Each time a card is picked the possibility of it being one of the other cards is just as viable as it being the picked card. In other words you have a chance of losing 51 times in a row. a sequence of losses would not increase the chance of a win.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
well if you keep picking up cards and not fight the 6 of hearts, then the probability the next one will be the 6 of hearts goes up because there's less hearts left.
I'd suggest learning some math and probability
TristanPEJ 4 years ago
No the probability does not go up suppose the six is on the bottom having 2 cards left if you bet all your money on the next card you would lose all your money, right?
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
No, the probability will be 0.5, a 1 in 2 chance of being correct.
adparker314 4 years ago
The chace of picking 6Hearts would be equal to picking the 7Spades (or any PARTICULAR other card).
BUT the chance of picking 6Hearts and ANY ONE of the remaining cards is not.
adparker314 4 years ago
If you were to randomly pick a card out of a deck you would yes have a 1/52 probability of picking a "6 of hearts" However if you picked out a card and said whats the chances of this card being a "6 of hearts" when I flip it over that would be 50/50. Say you have 5 cards face down and one of the cards is the six before you select which card you think is the six you have 20% chance after you decide which card you want the chance that it will be the 6 on the flip is 50/50.
Bodhitharta 4 years ago
WHAT? You think the probability changes (improve to 0.5) when you make a guess at the result?
If you pick a card there is a probability of 1/52 that it is 6Hearts. If you pick a card, say "I think it is 6Hearts" the probability you are correct is 1/52, same as before!
adparker314 4 years ago