TPMtv: 2008: Battle Lines Drawn

[AngrySkeptic]

Survey USA is NOT a credible major polling firm.

Why are you using them?

[hesh2]

Whats hoodie josh?

Informative as usual!

[jjmcoates]

OBAMA's FIRST ACT AS PREZ

"The first thing I'd do as president is sign the Freedom of Choice Act," Obama said in his speech to abortion advocates worried about the increase of pro-life legislation at the state level.

The Freedom of Choice Act (FOCA) is legislation Obama has co-sponsored along with 18 other senators that would annihilate every single state law limiting or regulating abortion, including the federal ban on partial birth abortion.

[bobbooty]

Amen

Obama '08

[Xenu]

You forgot to mention that Nader is at 6% according to the AP poll!!

[cookimonstizzle]

Nader 08

[AAL]

Have we learned nothing from McCain's green screen problem?

[Grandmasterka]

THANK YOU for presenting a more intelligent discussion of this year's swing states than all the major news networks combined.

[mysonabsalom]

Josh is back! We rejoice!

[MooseOfReason]

Marshall is back!

[jimbojim68]

Josh, you and TPM always pick the best topics to discuss. This was timely and informative. Thanks.

[teron678]

Homeboy2000, her show was canceled don't think she was fired ..

anyways don't watch faux news so i'm not sure ..

[MooseOfReason]

Good enough.

[russelljgarner]

YAY josh is back

[voyzovrezon]

So, the map is relatively similar to what it was in 04. We are so screwed! Say hello to another 4 years of McBush.

[neotoy]

Good analysis as always, but TBH I am soooo sick of polls, just wish the general election was here already!

[jacobwwright]

Polls show a relatively sizable bump for Obama. Cue the fist bump pic. Classic...

What say you, FoxNews? Terrorist fist bump? Terrorist poll bump?

[asdffd]

Seriously, I'm not worried at all. The economy is in tatters and McSAME has even less charisma than Bob Dole. It's going to be a wipeout.

[jonathanwindham]

Ive been looking at the RCP polling averages and Obama has risen considerably in the swing states and Obama has also put a couple of red states (Colorado, Iowa, Virginia and Indiana) into play as swing states and is currently leading in red states colorado and Iowa.

[cminmd0041]

This is why Obama Dems were so irritated by changing the rules and seating FL and MI. Whenever Obama campaigns and voters get to know him, his numbers go way up. Particularly, since he was running against a well known brand like Clinton. I think he will concentrate on campaigning in those two states and his numbers will go way up like they always do.

[jonathanwindham]

I don't know about Florida, a lot of people there are pretty pissed off at Obama.

[lamouchemorte]

Survey USA sounds like a Trojan horse.

[vertigate]

Cool beard.

[Pleblian]

Why Florida..? Florida is owned by the republicans and it needs a closer look at it's electorial processes, maybe even federal intervention. There have been many editorials, opads and books written about the state and it's corruption from top to bottom. It's no wonder Florida has the worst home forclosure rates in the country, which IS mortgage fraud and a symtom of state government Ignoring it's responsibility.

[richradtylr]

Looks obama is going to have to spend more time in florida.

[Pleblian]

richradtylr... Yes Obama does need to more time there but Florida needs serious oversite at it's polling stations. I was in Florida during the 2000 election specifically Volusia county and saw people turned away at the door and these were people with registration in hand.

This is indicitive of a third world state.

Obama is going have to do more than spend more time there.

[TainaAtheist1]

Florida actually has more registered Democrat than Republican, but apparently Democrats are less likely to vote. The reason? I suspect it is because Florida is the Disenfranchisement State with a closed voting system, corruption at all levels, a govenor who spends more time campaigning than working, and systems of insurance and finances that encourages conflict of interest.

[Pleblian]

TainaAtheist1... Your right on.

I have been to many third countries, while the military, and never believed I would see the same kind of machiavellian strong arming I witnessed in Florida that I saw abroad. What really bothered me is the apathetic attitutes of the general population in Florida, it was Orwellian in nature. Talking to people it seemed they didn't have the forethought to understand they were falling off a cliff.

[josiahdallas]

I hope they just keep this guy on their reports. The other people they have had doing these havent been as good.

[blair227]

I think Colorado,Neveda,and even MccInsanes Arizona are in play.

[dafttool]

"even MccInsanes Arizona are in play"

I agree. If McCain prides himself as to never bringing money back to Arizona in earmarks as a Senator, what sort of preference would he show Arizona as president? None. So Arizona doesn't really have anything to gain except bragging rights for being the home state of the president. I think senior citizens will be the key demographic in Arizona (as well as Florida). Obama is unlikely to win unless he is able to get Hillary's seniors on his side.

[blair227]

I like the fact that Obama is going to campaign in all the states.I think Kerry should have done that in 04.You have to keep McCInsane running around to solidify his so called base which is tepid towards him at best.Let's hope for a landslide.

[justcallmesoso]

who are the undecided? can we turn them blue?

hmmm

[dafttool]

Being from Florida, I can attest from anecdotal evidence that Obama will have to work very hard to win this state. McCain will probably get the senior citizens and jewish vote here, along with the traditional conservative demographics, which put together is fairly sizable. It hasn't helped that Obama hasn't campaigned here much yet either. If Hillary is going to help him, she needs to concentrate her efforts here.

[ikekll]

IS IT POSSIBLE?

Reuters AlertNet - Kucinich calls for Bush impeachment. 10 Jun 2008 02:10:28 GMT. Source: Reuters. By JoAnne Allen. WASHINGTON, June 9 (Reuters) - Democratic Rep..."

ADD this to Nader's:

Ralph Nader Demands Impeachment on White House steps

watch?v=MWRAJrRV6XI

[HomsarPWNS]

The second poll you always show with the pie chart is obviously flawed. How in one day can McCain go from being ahead by 3 and then the very next day down by 9? It's not possible. The same demographics obviously weren't asked and I seriously doubt that the second poll is anywhere near accurate. How an agency conducts its poll is especially important in determining its accuracy. Look into it further instead of just telling us the details. The second poll was obviously conducted by Democrats

[jjoshaugh]

Most polls have a variability factor of about +-5%

[bodah44]

good work josh. good to have you back!

[Deweydecible]

Yes!

So nice to see you again Josh. Thanks for the commentary.

[snarkwaupaca]

Agreed! I really like the time Josh and the TPM folks spend on the story instead of sound bite journalism.

[merrimac291]

I have a feeling my home state Montana will be a swing state.

[snarkwaupaca]

How do you think Obama can get past the NRA/Gun issue there? Will other civil liberty issues and fiscal responsibility issues that the dems are stronger on trump it? I hope your right.