Cool video, but I don't see how that is an example of Ockham's Razor. In what respect is the more common disease a simpler explanation of the symptoms than the rare disease? Instead of Ockham's Razor, I think the mistaken reasoning here could be explained via Bayes Theorem.
The amount of explanation necessary to substantiate a claim of kuru is much more than a generic illness manifesting it unusually.
To use a more scientific explanation, using quantum mechanics to explain how a car popped out of nowhere while we were driving is much less rational than an explanation using the limits of our peripheral vision.
@Guaguanco11 The wikipedia article on Occam's razor says, "A more general form of Occam's razor can be derived from Bayesian model comparison and Bayes factors"
@jffryh I had a look at the article but I'm not convinced. They seem to be talking about simplicity in terms of information content, a simpler theory being one with less information content - then they point out that if you increase the information content of a theory the probability of that theory decreases. This is all fair enough, but how is the information content of the theory that the patient has Kuru greater than the information content of the theory that the patient has a common disease?
@jffryh Also, suppose there was a difference in info content between the theories. This still isn’t an instance of O.R. Simplicity is not a univocal concept; there are many different kinds of simplicity and often when comparing two theories we find that, by one kind of simplicity, the first theory is simpler, while by another kind the second is simpler (e.g. ontological vs syntactic). But O.R. is a principle of ontological simplicity, and this seems separate from ‘info content simplicity’.
GREAT video!!!! I love how it deflates the pretensions of philosophical concepts with humorous, pop-culture references!!!
biznor3 1 year ago
"mm-k, mr. silly bear?" lol!
fede2 2 years ago
Cool video, but I don't see how that is an example of Ockham's Razor. In what respect is the more common disease a simpler explanation of the symptoms than the rare disease? Instead of Ockham's Razor, I think the mistaken reasoning here could be explained via Bayes Theorem.
Guaguanco11 3 years ago
The amount of explanation necessary to substantiate a claim of kuru is much more than a generic illness manifesting it unusually.
To use a more scientific explanation, using quantum mechanics to explain how a car popped out of nowhere while we were driving is much less rational than an explanation using the limits of our peripheral vision.
Myndir 3 years ago
Because of probabilities, not because of Ockham's Razor!
Guaguanco11 3 years ago
@Guaguanco11 The wikipedia article on Occam's razor says, "A more general form of Occam's razor can be derived from Bayesian model comparison and Bayes factors"
jffryh 1 year ago
@jffryh I had a look at the article but I'm not convinced. They seem to be talking about simplicity in terms of information content, a simpler theory being one with less information content - then they point out that if you increase the information content of a theory the probability of that theory decreases. This is all fair enough, but how is the information content of the theory that the patient has Kuru greater than the information content of the theory that the patient has a common disease?
Guaguanco11 1 year ago
@jffryh Also, suppose there was a difference in info content between the theories. This still isn’t an instance of O.R. Simplicity is not a univocal concept; there are many different kinds of simplicity and often when comparing two theories we find that, by one kind of simplicity, the first theory is simpler, while by another kind the second is simpler (e.g. ontological vs syntactic). But O.R. is a principle of ontological simplicity, and this seems separate from ‘info content simplicity’.
Guaguanco11 1 year ago
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@Guaguanco11
I wanted to give you this other article on occam's razor I found.
lesswrong. com/lw/jp/occams_razor/
Help me save the planet from runaway climate change.
/watch?v=ACHLayfA6_4
"The Oceans will begin to boil..."
onehundredmonths. org
Likely tipping point of no return is December of 2016 or sooner.
jffryh 10 months ago