The Tories' interest In Nassim Taleb's Black Swan

[gazz12345a]

Kirsty Wark should stop pretending to be an objective journalist and just go ahead and get a job working for the labour party.

[nims60]

He is saying, In the dark, move slowly.

Models are wrong, we take precautions, no problem.

Models are right, we take precautions, no problem,

Models are wrong, we do NOT take precautions, no problem.

Models are right, we do NOT take precautions - well, we may wipe ourselves out as a species.

Given the lack of certainty, we should try to avoid outcome 4, whatever the risk of it happening. Taleb's point is that there are certain risks we should not take, whatever the likelihood.

[ReedYoung]

Climate and macroeconomics are inherently complex, and therefore subject to unpredictable, large responses to small inputs. We shouldn't fool with them and assume that because we can't predict the outcome, the outcome won't be very bad. But that was the reasoning for Bush's tax cuts for the rich, CFMA, Gramm-Leech-Bliley and de-regulation in general. Taleb's work shows the opposite is true, and mathematicians and advanced physicists all know the same is true of non-linear systems of any type.

[escamillo222]

It would be great to hear Taleb elaborate on his opinion of "the climate" as stated in this clip. Does he imply a faith in unverifiable climate models which are the sole basis for the IPCC and its public policy? Inquiring minds want to know.

[tjamesjones]

@escamillo222 not at all - if you read the end of Black Swan he unsurprisingly expresses his frustration with those models (which create the illusion of understanding). His point is conservative, that the climate is a complex system and thus we should be careful to do what we can to avoid impacting it at all. Those IPCC models are the last thing he uses to justify that argument.

[kiasmus]

I think he's beginning to feel too self-satisfied. It's probably a matter of time that he becomes a fully accepted member of the intellectual establishment. In fact, he even gives lectures for Edge, that strange bunch of scientists whose main interests are success and money. I hope he doesn't end being a dull knife, as most of those people are.

[BeholdZeus]

You make a good point. I think Taleb is putting too many cards on the table when he says that he shares a lot in common with Cameron. For all he knows - and this is very likely the case - Cameron is just using him to garner intellectual capital.

[DCWhatthe]

This is the calmest, most likable interview with Taleb that I've seen thus far.