Options and Stock Market Technical Analysis November 14 2008

[prince0427]

Good analysis, But it's a bit off.. My analysis shows that we could rally up to 96 on the SPY and still be within this pennant formation..

Pull a trendline from the Oct. 6, 7 and 14th highs and you'll see what I mean.. Your trendline passes through way too many candles, which makes it much more unreliable then mine.. Mine also make a more bullish case for the Inv H&S (which could go as high as 980 if calculated using the head as possible target count at RS breakout)..

[prince0427]

After watching your video again I see your SPY isn't depicted correctly on your platform.. I use both Etrade and TOS and both of mine have a way smaller upper shadow at oct. 6th with a much bigger gap, and so that's why we're getting different calculations on the upper trendline of this pennant.. I suggest you re-evaluate this formation using another broker platform (so you won't get short too ahead of time)..

[u05ikoren]

I think you should retake a look at the video, notice how i drew in two different descending resistance lines.. one at 92, the other at 96. I use prophecy and etrade as well as platforms.. what you see in that one candle on october 6th was a small data error, sorry if it threw you off... I will adjust it as the market moves closer to it, I was only making a point for today.

[McCallan18]

Hmmm. I'm a little uncomfortable calling this "analysis." You didn't give any explanation for WHY you think the market is going lower. Instead you used the phrase "I believe" and "we believe" repeatedly. Belief is not analysis. You need to give supporting arguments.

Also I find that many people are NOT using fibonacci retracements correctly. FYI, please watch "Trading with Elliot Waves" from EWI. In this video Bob Precter teaches you how to properly use fib retracements. Thank you.

[u05ikoren]

When I analyze the market, I like to tell my viewers what I really think. Most people present the facts straight out, but by doing so, I have provided no service to no one. I analyze the markets based on what I and my trading partners believe is the most likely scenario, and where the most money can be made...

fibonaci retracements can be used for all sorts of analysis. The most general way to look at them is using them as potential reversal price points, and playing the markets off of that.

[u05ikoren]

My portfolio is up 27.3% YTD, which obviously outperforms most hedge funds and trading firms for this year.

On regular years I make between 20-45%

[McCallan18]

OK, obviously you're doing something right. I just would have liked to see some of the reasons behind your predictions.

[ULTIMA9999]

we are going down, but for how long? weeks? months? years?

[u05ikoren]

According to Elliote Wave Theory, we are currently at subwave 5 of wave 3. This means that after this huge crash, we will have one full wave up (3 subwave correction), and one full wave down (5subwaves), the 5th wave could be trunctaed, so I don't think this market will go much lower after this crash a good minimum estimate is 500 on the S&P and the market should bounce back into a bull market by 2Q of 2009. Then again, fundamentals can change everything, so your guess is as good as mine.

[stan300zx]

Excellent Post. Very informative and true. Everyone will make money in this market less the stock holders hmmm what a system we have. Love options only way to make money. Goog 300 short option was an example of things to come in all stocks. We have been heading down for some time my hats off to the rich shorts out there I play both sides and I'm sure most shorts do too! Good luck to all we are gonna need it.

[zozo71zozo71]

thanks a lot!

very good analysis