in my opinion we are not taking count of the peak oil happened in 2008(by a lot of scientists).
It means that in few years (2014/2015) the worls will face a no return energy crisis and it means that the real gold will be all the things strictly necessary to survive(food, own producing heat and electricity, water) what do you think Bern?
I suspect those of you looking for a "sign" that stocks are going to tank are going to be disappointed.
IMO the decline will be so fast and brutal that unless you're willing to stay short and endure the pain, or sit in front of your computer and TV watching it like a hawk, you'll miss it.
Deflation looks there at the moment in Europe. I heard Germany had zero inflation in May.
In US, one will get a few years of inflation maybe? (not a small amount of inflation i fear).
That is also because the dollar might go down relative to other currencies. Then the other currencies will also go down, and the real money (gold) will go higher relative to them.
that deflation might be right, depending maybe on which part of the world you are. In Eu they are not so easy in printing limited amounts of euros.
But the FED can do quite a lot tricks to make a lot of money out of nothing (takes a computer), and so they can have a quick hyperinflation story? And after that deflation, because even the FED might have troubles keeping making money (the trees are gone, and the green shoots they also used up).
you think....? :-) Berni got very quiet lately. Nothing went the way he thought this spring. Hope not to many people paid to much money for his advice....
I`m sure we will see a kick back on the markets soon. But its normal in any circumstances that we will see markets suddenly turn down after a long period of upgoing markets.
Could be, but what I am looking for is as "the big sign" is the stocks to go down significantly, but also bonds take a significant hit, and the dollar drops like a stone. The evil trifecta. This is the mega sign to me that the shit is about to hit the fan.
What we have learnt is that dollar has been a safe haven so far in this crisis and strengthened during the last year. As the markets have picked up, the dollar slides down. I have shorted the dollar now, because I think its going to be at least as weak as before the crisis. But it depends on how stock- and commodity markets are going. If they go up, the dollar go down. I`m in for a rocky time (bull/bear/suckers rally), but I believe that I`ll make money in a long term basis.
I am an student in chemistry and can relate to you're way of thinking. Through my quest of deeper knowledge in macroeconomic issues i have found that econemy is alot more complex than the general discussion, and economic dogmas. There's a lot of misinformation, bout intentionally and unintentionally, and economy is just as muths about politics. (The truth is always the first casualty)
Plunge Protection Team?? If thats what you mean- yes they are working hard these days. Btw, new numbers from Spain. Unemployment over 17% as we speak. Thats almost unpresidented in a western country these days. Official, the US unemployment is about 8%, but many think the actual number is higher...
Technicals and dow theory are very clear right now: We are still in a major BEAR market. This current rally could either end within the next two weeks or run into early summer. Either way we will test new lows within 12 months. People are way too bullish right now and we have herd mentality. They are trying to suck investors back in with fake bank earnings. If you did not lighten up on equities during this rally or even worse bougth back in you will be crushed. Be very careful and selective.
I read the latest numbers for Spain today. Wow! Their defficit is more than twice the EU- limit on 3%. I think it was in the neighbourhood of 8%. And they expect a huge number of unemployed people. Along with Italy they will put some pressure on the EU on packages. They might even want to drop the Euro if they dont agree. I think we might see a weaker Euro in the future months.
The stock markets have grown a great deal (+ 30% in Norway in 2 months), the oil price has gone up with 50%, the risk interbank rent has fallen quite a bit the last months. So its positive development there. The basic economies however are still going down with shrimping economies all over the world, but we can see positive signs.
Stock market is rigged. Price of oil is rigged. "Positive Signs"? It's like a patient with terminal cancer saying "well, my hair looks good today, though"! The only hope the world has is the abolishment of the federal reserve and other central banks like it. Period.
Well, do you think he care if its rigged as long as he have made a lot of money?
He did have good timing if he took positions at that time in the stockmarket. Then it can be rigged from Paris to the North Pole for that matter- he made a good call.
Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up; therefore, as the fed owns mostly treasure bills, is for their own interest to rise interest rates. My question is why did the Fed decrease the interest rates lately?
Q2 is going to be thestart for the hyperdeflationary period and then will come the hyperinflationary time. The question is how long time can we estimate the time that will endure each?
Not being facetious but nobody can really tell. There are too many variables. It depends on how much the governments interfere, other economies etc . . .
There might not be any hyperinflation since they did`nt agree on larger stimulance. The US, Japan and China + + wanted more money into the economy, but the EU dont want to be a part of that. Not yet anyway. I think its coming. The G20 summit was as close to a succes as possible. They did not achieve very much concret, but they managed to give an impression of commonhood that might give markets (banks) a more positive view of the future.
Yes, the difference of each country`s economy and challenges is the problem with the Euro. I have always critisized EU for that weakness. I remember some years ago that Germany`s economy was running hot and wanted increased interest rates, but Ireland was struggling and wanted lower interest rates... Thats the accilles of the EU and Euro. They cant use its toolbox the same way as other countries. The US is best in the class there.
Iceland is a very interesting case indeed but to get a complete view, you must start from the start that is the times when Iceland was struggling with a rampant inflation, which led them to implement their carry trade business based on the krona. The very fact they envisioned the current outcome and anticipated it will probably lead many people to consider this plan was masterly crafted. I say that in relation with the comment on honesty, integrity and stuff...
I would really hate to see these converted to Spanish in the future. Although given the situation, maybe learning a new language is the way to go. Then a move too.
You need to study more about economy on Argentina, Brasil, Mexico, Zimbabwe and others. These countries had hyperinflation and they were in huge debts. US in 1929 great depression and Japan in 1990 were producing countries, so to speak, they were creditor nations and they had deflation in economic crisis. US now is in huge debts and 2/3 economy is comsumers based, almost no producing. What will US will do to pay back the debts? Did you get it?
There is a huge difference between Argentina, Zimbabwe and others versus the US because of the status of the dollar. The US can "export" inflation with its dollar to the rest of the world and that will take off the worst trouble for the US economy.
Dont take it back but just additional information: it has been now one year that I have been hammerring on YT that " US is getting goods simply printing money, export of
inflation" US citizens have it very hard to understand this simple fact but this is not the point.
The point is that you said "The world is realizing " nope, the world realized a long time ago. I am a living proof of it: do you really think that analysts in various countries did not come to that conclusion a long time ago?
I dont so I dont see how people dedicated full time to observe that stuff would miss it. China knew it, countries selling their mineral assets (sometimes as strong as Russia) knew it, Europe knew it. Fact is they did not pull the plug off because they cant. The key links is all those little countries which are squandering their capital in order to support the USD.They are the ones doing the biggest effort. They are weak and most often under a military threat from the US so...
I understand that Canada's banks did not become investment houses (they tried, many times in the past, but the Canadian government would not let them - for the real reason behind this I would love to know) and are in very good shape with substantial profits for 2008. What is your take on Canada?
the fed is trying to create inflation but is having difficulties as American continue to cut spending on all but essential goods..so the government has asked or rather told banks to loan money on cars even if the buyers do not qualify..the banks have also been told NOT to lend money to farmers for fertilizer or seeds.they are despirate to inflate their way out of this mess..the problem is americans are not participating in the sham...its not working..layoffs and fear of lay off continues to grow
basically this is the situation...food, energy and medicine...inflates beyond imagination...but you can buy a car or new house for pennies on the dollar...welcome to the world bernake built...
1) If any1 had a god-given talent to predict what stock markets would be like 30 days into the future that person would quickly become the wealthiest person in the world.
2) The biggest factor effecting stock prices is "Confidence".
3) Although many "facts' can be tossed about, it's "preception" that drives
"confidence" & not "reality" - which is far less important.
4) Any1 who thinks he can predict the confidence level in 30 days is loco.
I just made 4-8% gains on my stock inv., even though I predicted the 15.09. crash . Many people predicting the crisis face same issues:
1. You need to spend time and expertise in picking the best investments
2. There is an emmitent risk, which costs you diversification
3. Market interventions like FED actions are not unexpected, but came a few times unexpected (unreasonable) in scope and timing. But even worse is that markets react to it.
In the U.S. * Union representation of workers has been eviscerated due to their own idiocy over the previous thirty years. In effect, they have no power to impact economic or labor policy. * Outsourcing of work to China, India, Mexico and other nations makes wage demands impossible for American workers to enforce. Such demands simply result in the loss of the job to overseas workers.
Your comment seems self defeating. Indeed, the unions have probably milked up the situation as much as they could in favour of the workers.
Outsourcing is unavoidable considering the gap between wages. Unions, when they manage to rise the paycheck, increased what the workers reaped before the unavoidable.
Jberni1 what are your thoughts on this reasoning. "Hyperinflation" in the U.S is impossible without a means to transmit the rise in prices into wages.
You gave a good laugh when you claimed that currency traders dont have to have a wide knowledge. Thats not true, since currency is based on the macro economy. You need more knowledge to trade currencies than stocks. What is interesting now is that China has again talked about the dollar. They want to replace that into a casket of currencies. And today Russia said the same. If they sucseed in that, it will be the final decline for the US as superpower. And the US will get trouble with its loans.
Sorry for so many comments. I just have a hard time understanding why is going to be a deep deflation and asset price devaluation again if the usa is just printing money....This should result a hyperinflation of assets and inflation...but not to deflation...created by stocks...I thought they were already on the bottom. sorry for my ignorance...I need your help.
Someone may be able to explain this better but from what I understand the rate of inflation is a function of the growth of money supply (i.e. printing of money) AND the velocity of money. The velocity of money is a representation of the level of economic activity in the economy. In a recession/depression scenario we are expected to see a fall in spending. A good example is to look at house prices which are expected to fall further even though the money supply is increasing.
so deflation on q2, for how long???So this means that the deflation of real assests will be just temporary. My question is about the turnboil, it will be a shortage of cash flow, then for now the best is to have cash.
I am 30% in gold silver and the rest in cash (euros). I dont trust the dollar at all, plus I am in Europe. Gold and silver will still have some volatility but I dont want to be timing to the extreme and find that I did late. I will think about investing the rest of my euros at some point this year.
In my coaching sessions, this is a very frequent question. I ususally discuss how people will have access to their portfolios and their ability to spend money in case the globalization comes to a stillstand through geopoliical shifts...
Between April 7 to May 5 less flexibility to acces the money . Does it mean that it will last during that period or does it mean that during that time will be a permanent change of rules. thank you for all you answers. I really appreciate them.
Sometimes he "makes it up" like there would be a way to manage the crisis, on the other hand he writes up things giving exactly the opposite way of thinking...
Just allow me to have made the joke about the currency traders...Just stay tuned on what will happen within the next weeks. The message from media is very concerning. 400 trillion Dollar sit aside in money market funds to be moved somewhere. When this happens..hell breaks lose.
I though that the deflation already happenned in USA. So you are saying that is going to come another one....How long do you think it will last, six moths, a years, several years as CE, before the hyperinflation floods the economy?
excellent! thanks for sharing with us in 10 minutes, what has taken you years and money for college to learn.May we all discern your words and be safe and prepared for the short and long term changes in the U.S. and the world. thanks again,Dave
Please keep an english channel, or have both spanish and english-- You really deliver!! Your info-talks are the best on youtube. Am a small investor trying not to lose more.
Yes. In the mid run even Oil and commodity prices might even deaccelerate as demand destruction in the western world continues. The wild card is China, which is in total shoping mode for comodities.
What's happening on April 7-May 5? Those are very specific dates. April 2 is the G20 meeting. There has been a lot of talk from government officials (US, China, Russia even UN) of installing the IMF SDR (Special Drawing Rights) as the world reserve currency with a backing of major regional currencies. What is your opinion on this? Is this what April-May is all about? Exchange controls to prevent a run on the dollar? What are you not telling us? Come on, what's up?
Many thanks for this latest update.I always like to hear your straight talking no nonsense approach to these issues, J.
Do you think then that bank withrawl restrictions will be impossed across the world?. Surely it would be more localised?.
I spoke with an Argentinian last week who told me that when this occured in Argentina during the 90's they made an announcement on the news at 10pm that all banks would be closed from the following morning. People had no chance to withdraw.
"What currency?" is the question. They are all ugly and I am holding the ugliest of them all (pound sterling). Euro area has its problems and so does the US.
It might be an idea to pull the paper out of the bank and buy stuff. I read only about 3% of fiat money in circulation is actually in paper form. The rest is digits in an electronic register.
There is currently a 7 year fixed mortgage rate of 5.29% available in the UK. Even with overpriced real estate it could be cheap to buy now if inflation will erase the debt. The fixed rate deals may go up faster than house prices come down!
They can not go higher without collapsing the banking system. So the FED has to keep them low. Now, this is only true for the FED rates. LIBOR rates will hike along with treasuries. So the FED has to engage in keeping treasury interest rates artifically low through QE. That is a complete plan for complete disaster and destruction of all US wealth. I do usually not share the ideas of the current EU president, but he called it a "direct way to hell"...which might become true, if they get it wrong
GDP is a measure of economic activity. Sitting at home reading a book contributes nothing to GDP whereas replacing a stolen car adds thousands of dollars. We need a happiness/contentment index instead.
The efficient GDP measure was interesting. Why the reduction since '71? Is the return on investment lower in a credit-based economy or is it that government finds it easier to control a larger proportion of the economic activity when it can create inflation and hide behind doctored statistics?
That was what surprised me. I believe that it reflects the reality of the Dollar value - deception mismatch. the Dollar has gained stability from being the only reserve currency. This has always been in the center of US politics. With the recent crisis this status has lost dramatic value.
But basically it lead to "overconsumption and mal investments in the US due to overvaluation of its currency"
Yes, the GDP number is grossly over estimated since they use a ridiculous deflator number in the equation. GDP would have been negative for years in the US if they had calculated the true increase in money and credit.
We in the US are headed down the Weimar road now, and there does not seem to be any turning back. Deflation will continue for a time for debt backed assets, but as you say will utlimately catch a bid when inflation floods all sectors.
But wait, I just read that the end of the recession is in sight! Of course to believe this you would have to believe everything else the government tells you. I guess it depends on your gullability.
All I get out of this is to not buy real estate. Does he really think the stock market is going to continue to collapse (below the most recent bottom)?
There is another issue, which is population. Depending on if there will be population growth or - population decline due to sudden events like war, disease spread or violence in the streets. Those scenarios can impact the value of the houses as well...
Theory is that everything is going to fall. Gold, Commodities, stocks and any real assets. Gold will probably go down but should return when inflation overtakes the deflation. The trick is is where to put your dough. I am not selling any of my gold but will not buy. Maybe a basket of currencies?
I think it is hard to say. Look at commodity prices now. They are all in a recent uptrend (oil, metals etc . . .). So is the question is: "have these already bottomed?" If so then inflation will be sooner than later. Conversely there is a lot more job losses and weakening of the economy coming so industrial output and hence commodity demand are expected to weaken in turn putting downward pressure on demand and price for these items.
Sorry ran out of room, But the shot of it is that there is so much conflicting information out there that the best strategy is probably hedging your bets. Buy some assets (gold, silver, food, supplies) and keep some cash in the event of further weakening in the price of these items. Someone tell me if they think this is flawed but I think that this is a reasonable strategy.
That is what we might already see in April. As demand for treasuries will drop dramatically with the latest losses of country debt investments, Investors will seek saver places to invest..
Isn't GDP actually the sum of all goods made inland AND those imported !
GNP is the the product "produced inside" the country IIRC.
Politicians love to talk mostly about GDP !
e.g. US overspends on imports, using debt ( borrowed money ) and therefre have a big GDP. Their GNP is however diminishing though .. and that's the main problem** IMO !
( ** forgetting their WS corruption problem for a moment )
The explanation of why deflation and inflation can occur at the same time was astute.
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renukamalane 1 year ago
in my opinion we are not taking count of the peak oil happened in 2008(by a lot of scientists).
It means that in few years (2014/2015) the worls will face a no return energy crisis and it means that the real gold will be all the things strictly necessary to survive(food, own producing heat and electricity, water) what do you think Bern?
nextlifeguitarist 1 year ago
Yes some people are the richest people in the world
foxbat101 1 year ago
Hi Berni,
I think your deflation play didn't work out or is it just postponed? What is your outlook from here (19.07.2009)?
Great videos, btw. Thanks a lot for it.
tioslael 2 years ago 2
I suspect those of you looking for a "sign" that stocks are going to tank are going to be disappointed.
IMO the decline will be so fast and brutal that unless you're willing to stay short and endure the pain, or sit in front of your computer and TV watching it like a hawk, you'll miss it.
dnarby 2 years ago
Deflation looks there at the moment in Europe. I heard Germany had zero inflation in May.
In US, one will get a few years of inflation maybe? (not a small amount of inflation i fear).
That is also because the dollar might go down relative to other currencies. Then the other currencies will also go down, and the real money (gold) will go higher relative to them.
dontblamethemessenge 2 years ago
Do you have some references/data supporting this ? Thanks
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
Yes, if u are interested, you can buy them from me.
jberni1 2 years ago
can you put a title on your show. What I mean is canyou but a title and a date so we can track your show better. You are good
MrWorldking 2 years ago
that deflation might be right, depending maybe on which part of the world you are. In Eu they are not so easy in printing limited amounts of euros.
But the FED can do quite a lot tricks to make a lot of money out of nothing (takes a computer), and so they can have a quick hyperinflation story? And after that deflation, because even the FED might have troubles keeping making money (the trees are gone, and the green shoots they also used up).
dontblamethemessenge 2 years ago
maybe the timing is not exactly right.
but maybe some months extra? something like in july.
dontblamethemessenge 2 years ago
you think....? :-) Berni got very quiet lately. Nothing went the way he thought this spring. Hope not to many people paid to much money for his advice....
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
maybe this week or next week? The sign would be the downturn on the dow jones and other markets?
dontblamethemessenge 2 years ago
I`m sure we will see a kick back on the markets soon. But its normal in any circumstances that we will see markets suddenly turn down after a long period of upgoing markets.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
Could be, but what I am looking for is as "the big sign" is the stocks to go down significantly, but also bonds take a significant hit, and the dollar drops like a stone. The evil trifecta. This is the mega sign to me that the shit is about to hit the fan.
kenandjasha 2 years ago
What we have learnt is that dollar has been a safe haven so far in this crisis and strengthened during the last year. As the markets have picked up, the dollar slides down. I have shorted the dollar now, because I think its going to be at least as weak as before the crisis. But it depends on how stock- and commodity markets are going. If they go up, the dollar go down. I`m in for a rocky time (bull/bear/suckers rally), but I believe that I`ll make money in a long term basis.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
Thank you..good video
lfgefd 2 years ago
it's heading into first week of may...are you still confident with your predictions in this video?...in particular @ 8:30
mark7996 2 years ago
nobody knows for sure...good example
kenandjasha 2 years ago
I am an student in chemistry and can relate to you're way of thinking. Through my quest of deeper knowledge in macroeconomic issues i have found that econemy is alot more complex than the general discussion, and economic dogmas. There's a lot of misinformation, bout intentionally and unintentionally, and economy is just as muths about politics. (The truth is always the first casualty)
MoonlightSonata1977 2 years ago
Slow debate now................
PPT?
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
Plunge Protection Team?? If thats what you mean- yes they are working hard these days. Btw, new numbers from Spain. Unemployment over 17% as we speak. Thats almost unpresidented in a western country these days. Official, the US unemployment is about 8%, but many think the actual number is higher...
Norwegian73 2 years ago 3
Technicals and dow theory are very clear right now: We are still in a major BEAR market. This current rally could either end within the next two weeks or run into early summer. Either way we will test new lows within 12 months. People are way too bullish right now and we have herd mentality. They are trying to suck investors back in with fake bank earnings. If you did not lighten up on equities during this rally or even worse bougth back in you will be crushed. Be very careful and selective.
taineasy 2 years ago
I read the latest numbers for Spain today. Wow! Their defficit is more than twice the EU- limit on 3%. I think it was in the neighbourhood of 8%. And they expect a huge number of unemployed people. Along with Italy they will put some pressure on the EU on packages. They might even want to drop the Euro if they dont agree. I think we might see a weaker Euro in the future months.
Norwegian73 2 years ago 4
watch?v=UlDNMB6wYmI
So you believe the hyperinflation discussed in the video above is not going to happen?
LoneStar1776 2 years ago
I trust my government that he will get out us from huge foreign debts inflating money and later start all again from 0 debt.
khjstephano 2 years ago
Jim Sinclair
1a)All hyperinflations are currency events, not economic events.
1b) All hyperinflations have occurred in what can be called deep deflationary depressions.
1c) Quantitative Easing, the wanton printing of money, has been the key to all hyperinflations in history, no exceptions.
LoneStar1776 2 years ago 3
I think the worst is over - things seem to have stabilized and we're moving back to growth..
florgat91 2 years ago
Florgat- HA! Thats a good one! Hilarious! You're a regular Rodney Dangerfield with that comedy! HaHaHa! Stop, you're killing me!
TadRapidly 2 years ago 4
Well, so far he`s right. In fact, it was damned good timing.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
"Moving back to GROWTH"? Hardly.
TadRapidly 2 years ago
The stock markets have grown a great deal (+ 30% in Norway in 2 months), the oil price has gone up with 50%, the risk interbank rent has fallen quite a bit the last months. So its positive development there. The basic economies however are still going down with shrimping economies all over the world, but we can see positive signs.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
Stock market is rigged. Price of oil is rigged. "Positive Signs"? It's like a patient with terminal cancer saying "well, my hair looks good today, though"! The only hope the world has is the abolishment of the federal reserve and other central banks like it. Period.
TadRapidly 2 years ago 3
Well, do you think he care if its rigged as long as he have made a lot of money?
He did have good timing if he took positions at that time in the stockmarket. Then it can be rigged from Paris to the North Pole for that matter- he made a good call.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
Comment removed
LoneStar1776 2 years ago
Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up; therefore, as the fed owns mostly treasure bills, is for their own interest to rise interest rates. My question is why did the Fed decrease the interest rates lately?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Q2 is going to be thestart for the hyperdeflationary period and then will come the hyperinflationary time. The question is how long time can we estimate the time that will endure each?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Not being facetious but nobody can really tell. There are too many variables. It depends on how much the governments interfere, other economies etc . . .
dsturch 2 years ago
There might not be any hyperinflation since they did`nt agree on larger stimulance. The US, Japan and China + + wanted more money into the economy, but the EU dont want to be a part of that. Not yet anyway. I think its coming. The G20 summit was as close to a succes as possible. They did not achieve very much concret, but they managed to give an impression of commonhood that might give markets (banks) a more positive view of the future.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago 2
"The US, Japan and China + + wanted more money into the economy, but the EU dont want to be a part of that."
Nope. The EU "cant" (at least, it is much more difficult)
One central bank, one country: quantitative easing is easy and clear to read (you know who gets what)
One central banks, congregation of countries: quantitative easing is hard to implement, you dont know who gets what and for what reason...
TheCZMan 2 years ago
Yes, the difference of each country`s economy and challenges is the problem with the Euro. I have always critisized EU for that weakness. I remember some years ago that Germany`s economy was running hot and wanted increased interest rates, but Ireland was struggling and wanted lower interest rates... Thats the accilles of the EU and Euro. They cant use its toolbox the same way as other countries. The US is best in the class there.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago
IMHO
Reduce the dollar to 3 cents then pay off the debts
that is the contrived collapse
Canada is spared as it is the reserve to underpin the new currency.
This is why the world is frantic to make a world currency at the moment
As a North American union with a gold and or silver backed currency would flatten most countries into the third world.
leaving the North American Union on top of the world.
dave777blaster 2 years ago
do you know i also thought like you: a tsunami.
First a withdrawn, then a build up, and then the wave coming back as inflation.
Funny I think.
dontblamethemessenge 2 years ago
Iceland is a very interesting case indeed but to get a complete view, you must start from the start that is the times when Iceland was struggling with a rampant inflation, which led them to implement their carry trade business based on the krona. The very fact they envisioned the current outcome and anticipated it will probably lead many people to consider this plan was masterly crafted. I say that in relation with the comment on honesty, integrity and stuff...
TheCZMan 2 years ago
I would really hate to see these converted to Spanish in the future. Although given the situation, maybe learning a new language is the way to go. Then a move too.
mic374 2 years ago
Jberni1-You confuse me so much,
You need to study more about economy on Argentina, Brasil, Mexico, Zimbabwe and others. These countries had hyperinflation and they were in huge debts. US in 1929 great depression and Japan in 1990 were producing countries, so to speak, they were creditor nations and they had deflation in economic crisis. US now is in huge debts and 2/3 economy is comsumers based, almost no producing. What will US will do to pay back the debts? Did you get it?
khjstephano 2 years ago
There is a huge difference between Argentina, Zimbabwe and others versus the US because of the status of the dollar. The US can "export" inflation with its dollar to the rest of the world and that will take off the worst trouble for the US economy.
Norwegian73 2 years ago 4
The world is realizing that US is getting goods simply printing money, export of
inflation(sales of bonds nominated in US$) from US is ending, that's why you
are listening FED is buying US treasury
bond, own debts!!! China and others have
worked hard to produce cheap goods for
US consumers., even worker are saving
their money so that China buy and hold huge cash and US debts. China is worried and will stop buying US debts, it
cannot be exported more.
khjstephano 2 years ago 2
Dont take it back but just additional information: it has been now one year that I have been hammerring on YT that " US is getting goods simply printing money, export of
inflation" US citizens have it very hard to understand this simple fact but this is not the point.
The point is that you said "The world is realizing " nope, the world realized a long time ago. I am a living proof of it: do you really think that analysts in various countries did not come to that conclusion a long time ago?
TheCZMan 2 years ago
I dont so I dont see how people dedicated full time to observe that stuff would miss it. China knew it, countries selling their mineral assets (sometimes as strong as Russia) knew it, Europe knew it. Fact is they did not pull the plug off because they cant. The key links is all those little countries which are squandering their capital in order to support the USD.They are the ones doing the biggest effort. They are weak and most often under a military threat from the US so...
TheCZMan 2 years ago
Joern- Incredible vids!!!
1) I'm $60T in debt
2) I'll never fulfill my obligations
3) If I create hyperinflatino fiat currencies collapse worldwide!
4) If fiat money collapses worldwide, no choice but gold-based system.
5) Good news! I have 8,000 TONS of gold! IMF has 1,000 and China even less!
6) If I print, say, $2T in 6 months I could certainly create hyperinflation!
6) When the dust settles I'll once again be the most powerful country in the world!
Joern - your thoughts?
MyHeadsOutOfTheSand 2 years ago 2
Hi Joern,
I understand that Canada's banks did not become investment houses (they tried, many times in the past, but the Canadian government would not let them - for the real reason behind this I would love to know) and are in very good shape with substantial profits for 2008. What is your take on Canada?
que100 2 years ago
When you talk about asset price devaluation, do you mean just the tangible assets or the intangible assets?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
after 100s of hours education and discussion my braindead father has still his whole money 50k in the bank. Fucking Zombie
Mongodelight 2 years ago
the fed is trying to create inflation but is having difficulties as American continue to cut spending on all but essential goods..so the government has asked or rather told banks to loan money on cars even if the buyers do not qualify..the banks have also been told NOT to lend money to farmers for fertilizer or seeds.they are despirate to inflate their way out of this mess..the problem is americans are not participating in the sham...its not working..layoffs and fear of lay off continues to grow
centervilletn 2 years ago 3
basically this is the situation...food, energy and medicine...inflates beyond imagination...but you can buy a car or new house for pennies on the dollar...welcome to the world bernake built...
centervilletn 2 years ago 9
deflation?. hmm. the flood of american dollars will end up catching up. you cannot increase supply and increase value. it is not possible.
genghis6l99 2 years ago
Some basic economic facts:
1) If any1 had a god-given talent to predict what stock markets would be like 30 days into the future that person would quickly become the wealthiest person in the world.
2) The biggest factor effecting stock prices is "Confidence".
3) Although many "facts' can be tossed about, it's "preception" that drives
"confidence" & not "reality" - which is far less important.
4) Any1 who thinks he can predict the confidence level in 30 days is loco.
DillonX 2 years ago
That is correct.
I just made 4-8% gains on my stock inv., even though I predicted the 15.09. crash . Many people predicting the crisis face same issues:
1. You need to spend time and expertise in picking the best investments
2. There is an emmitent risk, which costs you diversification
3. Market interventions like FED actions are not unexpected, but came a few times unexpected (unreasonable) in scope and timing. But even worse is that markets react to it.
4. PPTs
jberni1 2 years ago
As a consequence, a hyper-inflationary or even seriously-inflationary spiral is impossible to sustain.
richard112360 2 years ago
In the U.S. * Union representation of workers has been eviscerated due to their own idiocy over the previous thirty years. In effect, they have no power to impact economic or labor policy. * Outsourcing of work to China, India, Mexico and other nations makes wage demands impossible for American workers to enforce. Such demands simply result in the loss of the job to overseas workers.
richard112360 2 years ago
Your comment seems self defeating. Indeed, the unions have probably milked up the situation as much as they could in favour of the workers.
Outsourcing is unavoidable considering the gap between wages. Unions, when they manage to rise the paycheck, increased what the workers reaped before the unavoidable.
TheCZMan 2 years ago
Jberni1 what are your thoughts on this reasoning. "Hyperinflation" in the U.S is impossible without a means to transmit the rise in prices into wages.
richard112360 2 years ago
Thanks for another good video.
I was thinking you were in Germany all this time.
anilomd 2 years ago
You gave a good laugh when you claimed that currency traders dont have to have a wide knowledge. Thats not true, since currency is based on the macro economy. You need more knowledge to trade currencies than stocks. What is interesting now is that China has again talked about the dollar. They want to replace that into a casket of currencies. And today Russia said the same. If they sucseed in that, it will be the final decline for the US as superpower. And the US will get trouble with its loans.
JohnnyGGN 2 years ago 3
jberni1,
Sorry for so many comments. I just have a hard time understanding why is going to be a deep deflation and asset price devaluation again if the usa is just printing money....This should result a hyperinflation of assets and inflation...but not to deflation...created by stocks...I thought they were already on the bottom. sorry for my ignorance...I need your help.
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Someone may be able to explain this better but from what I understand the rate of inflation is a function of the growth of money supply (i.e. printing of money) AND the velocity of money. The velocity of money is a representation of the level of economic activity in the economy. In a recession/depression scenario we are expected to see a fall in spending. A good example is to look at house prices which are expected to fall further even though the money supply is increasing.
dsturch 2 years ago
Yes, I came to these conclusions too. But I cant find any references to the measure of velocity wrt supply. Have you ?
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
*** iTulip ***
largo2001 2 years ago
jberni1
My question is: Another asset deflation? If we already had one....Can this be possible?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
conclusion:
assets deflation (question: asset deflation includes commodities?)
Very low interest rates and quantitative easing ,
banks will not be lending money, Unlimited debt printing money no sufficient to pay debts,
Tsunami =Hyperinflation.
Which means that the longer the quantitative easing the longer the loss of the wealth.
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Business & People are not borrowing money - do to fear - not so much banks will not lend it.
"banks will not be lending money"
Powdermonkey99 2 years ago
I disagree, business and people need the money but they will not be able to qualify and the terms will be to strict.
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Yes you are right, You will need to have a job and good credit.
Powdermonkey99 2 years ago
Jberni1,
so deflation on q2, for how long???So this means that the deflation of real assests will be just temporary. My question is about the turnboil, it will be a shortage of cash flow, then for now the best is to have cash.
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Bad. Immoral. Irresponsible behavior. I'm always glad to hear these words when this crisis is discussed.
BTW-are you going to convert this channel to Spanish and stop posting in English? :(
joel1923 2 years ago 2
Great video. Probably your best video so far.
hugolp 2 years ago
where should one put their money ? ,.. US dollars ? Yen ? gold/silver ? .. where's the best place for this deflationary period ?
florgat91 2 years ago
I am 30% in gold silver and the rest in cash (euros). I dont trust the dollar at all, plus I am in Europe. Gold and silver will still have some volatility but I dont want to be timing to the extreme and find that I did late. I will think about investing the rest of my euros at some point this year.
Thats what I did. Hope it helps.
hugolp 2 years ago 2
In my coaching sessions, this is a very frequent question. I ususally discuss how people will have access to their portfolios and their ability to spend money in case the globalization comes to a stillstand through geopoliical shifts...
jberni1 2 years ago
Espero que pongas un video en espanol pronto, gracias por la informacion.
Pudieras explicar que esperas de la reunion del G20?
pomnew 2 years ago
please keep an english version
sharkbone360 2 years ago 6
Between April 7 to May 5 less flexibility to acces the money . Does it mean that it will last during that period or does it mean that during that time will be a permanent change of rules. thank you for all you answers. I really appreciate them.
SilverRose09 2 years ago 2
jberni1, you put Nouriel Roubini to shame!
kidbilly1970 2 years ago
Nouriel Roubini puts himself to shame...
hugolp 2 years ago 2
Well, In my opinion he gives mixed messages.
Sometimes he "makes it up" like there would be a way to manage the crisis, on the other hand he writes up things giving exactly the opposite way of thinking...
jberni1 2 years ago
Thanks JB,
I like Spanish food....and the girls look nice as well!
dojufitz 2 years ago
weather is good too I bet. Not as good as Australia ;-)
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
Well, David
Just allow me to have made the joke about the currency traders...Just stay tuned on what will happen within the next weeks. The message from media is very concerning. 400 trillion Dollar sit aside in money market funds to be moved somewhere. When this happens..hell breaks lose.
jberni1 2 years ago
jberni1,
I though that the deflation already happenned in USA. So you are saying that is going to come another one....How long do you think it will last, six moths, a years, several years as CE, before the hyperinflation floods the economy?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
excellent! thanks for sharing with us in 10 minutes, what has taken you years and money for college to learn.May we all discern your words and be safe and prepared for the short and long term changes in the U.S. and the world. thanks again,Dave
manwap 2 years ago 3
Thank you again.
capcom101you 2 years ago
Please keep an english channel, or have both spanish and english-- You really deliver!! Your info-talks are the best on youtube. Am a small investor trying not to lose more.
Northwichita 2 years ago 2
G20 happens on april 2.
Tis is followed by which religious event between April 6-12.
Coincidence?????
Think ROME
Think LEGATUS
Think super crash
SoloCerveza 2 years ago
you can have simultaneous inflation and deflation.
And these can occur individually for each type of asset, economic vehicle, or currency.
SoloCerveza 2 years ago
So some homework to do. But generally asset prices might deflate but basics like utilities might inflate ?
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
Yes. In the mid run even Oil and commodity prices might even deaccelerate as demand destruction in the western world continues. The wild card is China, which is in total shoping mode for comodities.
jberni1 2 years ago
We chemists should rule the world.
C-NWO
chemists new world order
SoloCerveza 2 years ago
a lot of great info, thanks
nextdimensions 2 years ago
What's happening on April 7-May 5? Those are very specific dates. April 2 is the G20 meeting. There has been a lot of talk from government officials (US, China, Russia even UN) of installing the IMF SDR (Special Drawing Rights) as the world reserve currency with a backing of major regional currencies. What is your opinion on this? Is this what April-May is all about? Exchange controls to prevent a run on the dollar? What are you not telling us? Come on, what's up?
livefree1789 2 years ago 2
Greetings from Los Angeles. Thanks for this latest update. I wish you would post a video more often.
In your view, how bad is this going to be for the average American worker?
Also, how bad will this be for many rich Americans?
PrepNow 2 years ago
thanks again for your insight, it is always apreciated, too bad you weren't in canada, i would trust you.
krist300 2 years ago
Many thanks for this latest update.I always like to hear your straight talking no nonsense approach to these issues, J.
Do you think then that bank withrawl restrictions will be impossed across the world?. Surely it would be more localised?.
I spoke with an Argentinian last week who told me that when this occured in Argentina during the 90's they made an announcement on the news at 10pm that all banks would be closed from the following morning. People had no chance to withdraw.
ShillBasher 2 years ago
Did i understand it well: even price of gold is going down in deflation? And so what apart from love isn't subject to lose it's value?
pukashi 2 years ago
what's love got to do with it - as Tina Turner says
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
"From April 7th to May 5th there is a huge chance there is a huge chance there is less flexibility...."
Are you implying that there will be exchange controls imposed over this period, and where has this information come from?
Just a hunch?
mattd49 2 years ago 2
Cash is king for now!
kidbilly1970 2 years ago
what USD ? If not what currency in a debt based economy ?
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
"What currency?" is the question. They are all ugly and I am holding the ugliest of them all (pound sterling). Euro area has its problems and so does the US.
dsturch 2 years ago
It might be an idea to pull the paper out of the bank and buy stuff. I read only about 3% of fiat money in circulation is actually in paper form. The rest is digits in an electronic register.
DavidAKZ 2 years ago 2
THATS the message. Food and Commodities.
Real estate, which usually was a good investment s heavily overvalued in Europe (in US starts to be cheap)
jberni1 2 years ago
There is currently a 7 year fixed mortgage rate of 5.29% available in the UK. Even with overpriced real estate it could be cheap to buy now if inflation will erase the debt. The fixed rate deals may go up faster than house prices come down!
jimladx 2 years ago 2
Do you think interest rate will go higher or lower? and how long the deflation will last?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
They can not go higher without collapsing the banking system. So the FED has to keep them low. Now, this is only true for the FED rates. LIBOR rates will hike along with treasuries. So the FED has to engage in keeping treasury interest rates artifically low through QE. That is a complete plan for complete disaster and destruction of all US wealth. I do usually not share the ideas of the current EU president, but he called it a "direct way to hell"...which might become true, if they get it wrong
jberni1 2 years ago
Yes, the most important is to recognize when this window opens and when it closes.
In other words, when the boats have left the titanic, there is little you can do anymore
jberni1 2 years ago
GDP is a measure of economic activity. Sitting at home reading a book contributes nothing to GDP whereas replacing a stolen car adds thousands of dollars. We need a happiness/contentment index instead.
The efficient GDP measure was interesting. Why the reduction since '71? Is the return on investment lower in a credit-based economy or is it that government finds it easier to control a larger proportion of the economic activity when it can create inflation and hide behind doctored statistics?
jimladx 2 years ago
That was what surprised me. I believe that it reflects the reality of the Dollar value - deception mismatch. the Dollar has gained stability from being the only reserve currency. This has always been in the center of US politics. With the recent crisis this status has lost dramatic value.
But basically it lead to "overconsumption and mal investments in the US due to overvaluation of its currency"
jberni1 2 years ago
Yes, the GDP number is grossly over estimated since they use a ridiculous deflator number in the equation. GDP would have been negative for years in the US if they had calculated the true increase in money and credit.
We in the US are headed down the Weimar road now, and there does not seem to be any turning back. Deflation will continue for a time for debt backed assets, but as you say will utlimately catch a bid when inflation floods all sectors.
We have been betrayed by pirates.
forty4spikes 2 years ago 4
I have therefore looked at nominal GDP and not real GDP numbers.
The GDP deflator is based on as you stated silly inflation numbers which everyone can set as he wants....
jberni1 2 years ago
Isn't US GDP based on the growth of debt and money supply ? ps where does the 'Velocity of Money' come into this ?
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
I like your sensible and well researched theories best of all JB!
KiaOra53 2 years ago 6
Thank you.
jberni1 2 years ago
But wait, I just read that the end of the recession is in sight! Of course to believe this you would have to believe everything else the government tells you. I guess it depends on your gullability.
fishingthewatershed 2 years ago 4
At least the Captain of the Titanic tries to avoid widespread panic.
What gets me really concerned is that more and more governments and media give advise to prepare for emergency situations
jberni1 2 years ago
Recession, which recession ? ;-)
jberni1 2 years ago
All I get out of this is to not buy real estate. Does he really think the stock market is going to continue to collapse (below the most recent bottom)?
enjoytheshake 2 years ago
Sure is
jonah70757 2 years ago 3
Ask "Mr. Mortgage". He´ll know
jberni1 2 years ago
There is another issue, which is population. Depending on if there will be population growth or - population decline due to sudden events like war, disease spread or violence in the streets. Those scenarios can impact the value of the houses as well...
jberni1 2 years ago
This is by far the clearest explanation of monetary issues i have come across, 5 stars
PayChkSlaveRebellion 2 years ago 2
You have an excellent way of explaining complex details.
Would you be willing to share how you plan on protecting wealth, or perhaps even taking advantage of the short- to mid-term deflationary period?
NeverTooLateToLive 2 years ago 3
Theory is that everything is going to fall. Gold, Commodities, stocks and any real assets. Gold will probably go down but should return when inflation overtakes the deflation. The trick is is where to put your dough. I am not selling any of my gold but will not buy. Maybe a basket of currencies?
dsturch 2 years ago 3
My question is whein the inflation will overtake deflation. For how long can the Quantitum of easing can last....
SilverRose09 2 years ago
I think it is hard to say. Look at commodity prices now. They are all in a recent uptrend (oil, metals etc . . .). So is the question is: "have these already bottomed?" If so then inflation will be sooner than later. Conversely there is a lot more job losses and weakening of the economy coming so industrial output and hence commodity demand are expected to weaken in turn putting downward pressure on demand and price for these items.
dsturch 2 years ago
Sorry ran out of room, But the shot of it is that there is so much conflicting information out there that the best strategy is probably hedging your bets. Buy some assets (gold, silver, food, supplies) and keep some cash in the event of further weakening in the price of these items. Someone tell me if they think this is flawed but I think that this is a reasonable strategy.
dsturch 2 years ago 3
Yo hablo espanol tambien....Que viva Espana!
SilverRose09 2 years ago
Muy bien. Entonces no vamos a tener problemas con este tema...
jberni1 2 years ago
Comment removed
santsuma 2 years ago
Ich wohne in DE, habe deine jberni2 aboniert seit lang.
Entiendo y hablo bien español.
The second language I speak best is English. :)
Pero ninguna de las tres es mi lengua materna, :) :)
Bienvenido el canal en Español!
Congratulations to the good work you've been doing, Jörn. It is much appreciated.
santsuma 2 years ago
Do you think that the commodities will go down too? specially gold?
SilverRose09 2 years ago
I think one should diversify his portfolios. A good mix also considers food, land, other metals and comodity stocks.
jberni1 2 years ago
real or paper gold ?
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
You should be careful about paper gold. A lot of them are just paper and could default any time.
hugolp 2 years ago
That is what we might already see in April. As demand for treasuries will drop dramatically with the latest losses of country debt investments, Investors will seek saver places to invest..
jberni1 2 years ago
god damn something is wrong.
Mongodelight 2 years ago
at least this guy is on the ball
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
i am so unquit whats going on?
Mongodelight 2 years ago
Isn't GDP actually the sum of all goods made inland AND those imported !
GNP is the the product "produced inside" the country IIRC.
Politicians love to talk mostly about GDP !
e.g. US overspends on imports, using debt ( borrowed money ) and therefre have a big GDP. Their GNP is however diminishing though .. and that's the main problem** IMO !
( ** forgetting their WS corruption problem for a moment )
StandUp555 2 years ago