Individual events are what matter for us, not trends. I.e. never cross a river with the average depth of 4ft because you wont live to tell us about it. The general trend (the river is on average 4ft deep) doesnt matter. What REALLY matters is the event (the deepest point)
Extremeness/Impact of an event correlates to the size of the sample. So you would expect to see much larger and destructive earth quakes in planet three times the size of Earth (given it shared the same characteristics) although, most earthquakes would fall within normal range. However, outliers( the few really severe earthquakes) would be disproportionally more significant/destructive
the impact of a rare event increases EXPONENTIALLY not proportionally to size of a given the system.
So we could safely say the possibility of landing in a vietnam or WWI is relatively low. However because you have to assess risk by POSSIBILITY OF OCCURRENCE X THE IMPACT. This would make you assess going to war more carefully. The impact of an event matters when doing probability calculations ( A one and a thousand chance of losing 100 dollars is much different than a one and a thousand chance of losing 1,000,000 dollars)
A black swan is a unforeseen statistical outlier in a power law distribution. The majority of occurrences in power law distrubution are high frequency low impact events. Earth quakes, wars, terrorist attacks all follow these distributions. So- earth quakes think tremors-- wars think skirmishes. But because we have to judge risk by probability of occurrence X impact (event).
@iriesoldjahs Are you assuming that wars are an accidental occurrence that are unplanned? Even the strike on Baghdad came with a pre warning to Saddam.
@spinefex My professor used 4 of the 5 example events Prof. Goldblatt used to explain the black swan theory. I'm not sure what your concept of this theory is, but it seems like this Prof. is heading in the right direction.
@Hiway2hell A Black Swan event is more in line with, a pig on a farm. The pig is happy to see the farmer because he feeds him everyday. This farmer must have my best at heart thinks the pig. Oneday however the farmer comes not with food but with a butchers knife. For the pig this is a Black Swan event, unpredictable and sudden change with dire outcome. This dear Prof. thinks of technical development such as the computer and the internet as a black swan event?????
Individual events are what matter for us, not trends. I.e. never cross a river with the average depth of 4ft because you wont live to tell us about it. The general trend (the river is on average 4ft deep) doesnt matter. What REALLY matters is the event (the deepest point)
iriesoldjahs 6 months ago
Extremeness/Impact of an event correlates to the size of the sample. So you would expect to see much larger and destructive earth quakes in planet three times the size of Earth (given it shared the same characteristics) although, most earthquakes would fall within normal range. However, outliers( the few really severe earthquakes) would be disproportionally more significant/destructive
the impact of a rare event increases EXPONENTIALLY not proportionally to size of a given the system.
iriesoldjahs 6 months ago
So we could safely say the possibility of landing in a vietnam or WWI is relatively low. However because you have to assess risk by POSSIBILITY OF OCCURRENCE X THE IMPACT. This would make you assess going to war more carefully. The impact of an event matters when doing probability calculations ( A one and a thousand chance of losing 100 dollars is much different than a one and a thousand chance of losing 1,000,000 dollars)
iriesoldjahs 6 months ago
A black swan is a unforeseen statistical outlier in a power law distribution. The majority of occurrences in power law distrubution are high frequency low impact events. Earth quakes, wars, terrorist attacks all follow these distributions. So- earth quakes think tremors-- wars think skirmishes. But because we have to judge risk by probability of occurrence X impact (event).
iriesoldjahs 6 months ago
WWI was not a black swan event. Wars are always predictable, and war preparations take years.
spinefex 1 year ago
@spinefex what about the atomic bomb? was it a black swan event to the world(or the japanese)? Or it has to be a positive/negative thing?
Novinte 11 months ago
@Novinte The atomic bomb was a Black Swan event for the Japanese, yes.
spinefex 11 months ago
@spinefex wars are not predictable even with over-whelming firepower and force.. Afghanistan (USSR and USA) Vietnam, there's a long list
iriesoldjahs 7 months ago
@iriesoldjahs Are you assuming that wars are an accidental occurrence that are unplanned? Even the strike on Baghdad came with a pre warning to Saddam.
spinefex 6 months ago
The black swan was discovered in Western Australia long before the 1980's.
spinefex 1 year ago
@spinefex the im pretty sure it was the 1880's
iriesoldjahs 7 months ago
It's spelt "Monogamous not Monogamus".
spinefex 1 year ago
Non of these events were in fact Black Swan events. I think this guy has misunderstood the entire concept.
spinefex 1 year ago
@spinefex My professor used 4 of the 5 example events Prof. Goldblatt used to explain the black swan theory. I'm not sure what your concept of this theory is, but it seems like this Prof. is heading in the right direction.
Hiway2hell 1 year ago
@Hiway2hell A Black Swan event is more in line with, a pig on a farm. The pig is happy to see the farmer because he feeds him everyday. This farmer must have my best at heart thinks the pig. Oneday however the farmer comes not with food but with a butchers knife. For the pig this is a Black Swan event, unpredictable and sudden change with dire outcome. This dear Prof. thinks of technical development such as the computer and the internet as a black swan event?????
spinefex 1 year ago
@spinefex SEPT 11 is the EXACT definition of a black swan event...
iriesoldjahs 7 months ago
@iriesoldjahs Sept 11 was indeed a black swan event.
spinefex 6 months ago
'monogamus' should be spelled 'monogamous'; also, the comma is misplaced in '11, September 2001'.
chickenmansenshi 1 year ago
@chickenmansenshi get a hobby buddy
iriesoldjahs 7 months ago
@iriesoldjahs Joe Goldblatt IS my hobby; he's great! I'm just trying to help.
chickenmansenshi 7 months ago