Fibonacci, Fractals and Financial Markets - Socionomics.net

[phillpa]

DATA, DATA, DATA! This is a great video. Thanks

[MzSexyThang86]

@aluisious they are silly 3% of traders ALWAYS make money in the market they dont tell you all the secrets as it dosen't matter because even with a hammer if you dont have the muscles to lift it it's useless so is the mind and scarced geomerty. but it does work ALWAYS!

[gazrichards1]

don't work eh?

DOW JONES since the heady days of late 2007

draw a fib retracement from Oct 2007 high to Feb 09 low........watch the five wave Elliot wave rally (actually a bear retrace) to 11.254 that happens to be very close to Fib level 0.618 of 11234. Not bad for quasi religious horse shit!!!

if the DOW rallies back up to 11234 then breaks higher these recent choppy (since May 2010) trade will break lower forming bigger wave 3........

EWI give anyone free educational material!

[silverfox2358]

@gazrichards1 you can use it better to make a trading system or plan weather you make a profit or loss thus invest or gamble: £10 £20 £30 £50 £80 or £10G £20G £30G £50G if your on a loosing end you can see how to measure your losses

[criskity]

Too much picking and choosing.

[jcreepg]

leonardo fibonacci didn't dis-cover anything he learned that mathematical process from my ancestors and that will be the MOORS I.S.L.A.M.

[TYX91101]

My subscription to the Elliott Wave Theorist is the best investment I've ever made. I couldn't imagine going even a few months without it. The wave principle is not always accurate in the short run in every market. The long term forecasts are invaluable.

[ctrader09]

@TYX91101 couldn't agree more.

[FreeFOREXautoROBOT]

awesome! thanks

[ierogamos]

Very interesting video !

[nickharvey7]

Very good video!

In my video The Paradox of Schrodingers Cat an artist view it is Time that is the Hidden Variable. Time has symmetry and geometry that can explain the paradoxes of Quantum Physics. Could an understanding of the time continuum give us a greater understanding of fractals?

[whatoneknows]

It is true, that so long as we react 4rm our emotional nature, these patterns (Eliot & Mandlebrot) will persist, regardless of knowledge of them. However knowledge and willingness of a few to act on that knowledge in a stock room of an emotionally blind majority can lends an upper hand.

Once enough begin 2 play that game, the whole table is flipped. At which point, those responding mentally become a new element n the market. The whole fractal pattern changes to a new level of development

[whatoneknows]

There is chaos. But the chaos is ordered, i.e. Entropy.

Where systems of any kind get too rigid to flux with the rest of nature in harmony, chaos is wrought to break down the unfit and make room for new order.

Whatever the pattern, remember not to stray 2 far into materialism, for these patterns do undoubtedly arise from the very principles upon which the physical manifests from the void of pure potential. That in mind, these principles are understood to be universal and metaphysical in nature

[hrbear]

@whatoneknows Perhaps the etymology of the word comes to confuse us. Chaos is a greek word, actually is the beginning of the world in greek mythology. In the beggining was Chaos. We imagined this as an endless darkness and void. In modern greek chaos means a mess. If you break all things in your room, you create a chaos in your room, everything turn to a mess. If you re try and fix the situation you return the order in the room. So, you spend energy both to break things and to fix them back.

[Pierroda]

Bonjour à tous les élèves de l'ULg qui doivent regarder cette vidéo pour leur cours d'anglais ... :)

[fupedworld]

"In efficient markets, knowledge of the Elliott wave principle among investors would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless." from Wikipedia entry on Elliot Wave financial technical analysis theory.

[jdbrown371]

There are no efficient markets. Markets are reflexive. A change in price effects the fundamentals more than fundamentals drive price. People always buy stocks not on the basis of what their worth but because they think they're going up then sell frantically when the exit door is jammed and everyone wants out. Telling a stampeding herd of emotionally driven people trying to get rich about technical patterns won't change their behavior. True to nature, they act in Elliott patterns.

[BrianTheMusicMan]

Wow!

[ronniestuff08]

Nice video! It works great in nature, but humans and economics just don't seem to follow the rule, sorry!

[JohnLegend2]

There's nothing mystical about a total balance in rhythm, amount and measurement of "living" things throughout the known universe.

The Golden Section IS mathematical, nothing more. It is MATHEMATICALLY the ONLY way to have something divide and grow itself from generation to generation whilst remaining in proportion.

[dinyar65]

I was told that even the Penis lenth increases in Fibonacci proportion when erect.

[IDFSpokespersonunite]

Very imformative thank you

[AlanCom1]

I am very very skeptical of their analysis of the stock market. I think these guys look for patterns in the wrong place.

[3190423]

That is because the stock market is manipulated contrivance and not a natural, self organising system. The fact that 80% of world wealth is concentrated in hands of less than 10% is clear indication of that.

[yuyupil]

If we use the perspective on the world in any form, we find what is called "organized chaos" in where everything follows "simple" rules and create free will. The markets are unpredictable but at the same time, the behavior can be predicted. It's the ultimate paradox

[nbkm7l1]

The recent stock market lows of jan & march represent a 38% retracement of the 2003-2007 bull market. It is also interesting to note that the lows also represent a fibonacci projection level using the high/lows of the first decade of the 1900s....this stuff really works.

[aluisious]

So much for your "recent lows" and a 38% retracement. We are now much lower.

This stuff DOESN'T WORK. It's a bunch of horse shit that appeals to quasi-religious greedy people who can't accept that the market is unpredictable.

[socionomics]

According to the fibonacci ratio, there are several retracement patterns. At Elliott Wave Intl. however, they have been calling for a COMPLETE retracement of the 2003-2007 bull market by using this theory. Thus, proving them correct.

[aluisious]

1) Projecting an outcome does not prove that a theory is valid. I can project whether the stock market will go up or down tomorrow based on a coin toss, but clearly even if the projection is accurate, it doesn't prove that coin tosses are good predictors.

2) We don't know whether the market will fall further.

3) If these theories are so great, why aren't the practitioners the wealthiest people in the world by now?

[fupedworld]

Touche. Fitting patterns after the fact does not validate a predictive theory. The most unpredictable wrench to progress is true war (e.g. WWII). When that comes, does the Fibonacci sequence break down? Maybe the Fibonacci sequence is a subset of some yet unknown set and on and on...

[ctrader09]

@aluisious You have some very good questions that indeed many people have (expressing doubt and looking at Elliott Wave cynically). You are correct in saying that empirical evidence alone does not prove something. However, the evidence is overwhelming. about your second question, yes, wave 5's or 3's can extend, but we can project price targets based on Fibonacci ratios to price and time. In response to your 3rd question, Elliott Wave Principle is not a crystal ball. it provides a market roadmap

[ctrader09]

@aluisious Many people think the way you do, and don't even believe in chart patterns. This serves to confirm the validity in my mind of technical analysis and the wave principle. In my opinion The fact that Prechter and EWI have so many critics is the biggest contrarian indicator ever.

[okiedokies]

@aluisious The market is a random walk. Everthing is 50:50 in a perfect market. All this chartist BS is just that.

[zer0nix]

maybe this is just too deep for me but i can't help but watch this and think of the law of fives; it's a bunch of bunk. if you go out into a chaotic world looking for one specific pattern, you are going to find it no matter what, someplace or another because that's just the way the human mind works; it excels at finding like and unlike patterns. i'm not convinced that there's anything of value here; in other words, what the hell does all this actually mean?

[dethtongue]

It's interesting how people say things like "human brain just finds patterns in chaos when it looks for them" and then just move on like that means the patterns don't exist. Also- doesn't that make you think about what type of influence the human mind can have on what it perceives? You can take it as "we just make something out of nothing all the time" or "we alter the chaotic nature of things looking at them with intent and desire" or many other things. Just these two examples are still...

[dethtongue]

... quite remarkable. To find patterns in utter chaos or to create something from nothing. I've found that science these days is handicapped by questions like "what does it mean". How can you say that we live in a chaotic universe and then ask what it means? If the universe seems chaotic then you aren't seeing the order yet. Our perception is very limited. I would say that it all means that there is a strange sort of order to things that is difficult to understand. Manipulated or not.

[larsnordmark]

I think it's not chaotic, i think the whole universe and our own minds are made in such enormous complex patterns that we with our limited perception can't comprehend it, hence we believe all is chaos. In my opinion it is that this pattern (in our dimension and our universe) springs from the big bang (creation), and this almost "mechanical" pattern, which is in everything from humans to planet gravitation, will end when the universe, according to some scientist, will implode (destruction)

[AllFractUp]

I would tend to agree that there isn't chaos, simply that we haven't examined, explored, or completed our understanding of the known universe and all that occupy it at all scales of existence. However that does not mean there is any "grand scheme" to life or "intelligent design" governing those functions.

[jasonleebaker]

although i agree with your postulate that chaos, by definition, cannot be quantified, there is a certain order and pattern which may govern certain phenomenon within this reality. I fell that ,without the study of apparent randomness, there would be no internal combustion engine and no microwave.

As far as creating something from nothing goes, we have just created a dialogue which was forged from that great nothing, and i am glad to participate.

-Cheers!

-JB

[knuckleheadedfool]

(last) I think that fractals work just how they do in nature, in your mind. They all have a beginning and an end. Like our life. As far as the infinitely ascending and descending factors of fractals goes, well, beats me~!

[jeester71]

You can try all sorts to explain supply and demand but at the end of the day it boils down to rainfall. More rain means more crops. More crops means more exchange activity. More activity means increased volatility, leading to increased greed (rise) and then increased fear (fall). Crops this year were very short lived, so supply is down and demand is up, thus inflation. Over correction via interest rate swaps leads to recession - like now. Fibo rules have nothing to do with rainfall, am I right?

[skylarkio]

mundane factors other than rainfall (which relates most specifically to agriculture) play a significant role in 'The Economy'! and less apparent/mundane factors too...its seeming underpinning by the finobacci series makes sense (only now its been pointed out ofcourse!) excellent vid--many thanx

[itsacorporatething]

Interesting, but the implications that all these economists are giving are frightening to me. They seem to be saying it is a natural law that god set in place with the sequence that says that humans should and must expand exponentially. Anyone with a brain knows this is a misuse of nature! the economic growth they speak of is killing the planet.

[godscuttingyoudown]

you are making the mistake of putting man at the center of the world, what if man is a virus to the planet, and thats why he is expanding to a point when the earth will deal with man by destroying the virus and starting over.

[SonomaDave1]

Fascinating. But the questions remain, SO WHAT? Or, NOW WHAT?

[lofy63]

the Golden Ratio (Golden Mean) is not .618, it is 1.618. it is also not found in the Fibonacci Sequence, but rather in the Golden Rectangle. The Fibonacci Sequence, as described in this video, will only APPROACH Phi when dividing the conjegating numbers, they will never equal Phi. it's very obvious in the example they show: 8/13=.615, not .618.

they're mixing two number theories into one, and is extremely confusing. but other than that, the video brings up interesting theories.

[joseinTokyo]

great job!

[LoricaLady]

Thanks much & blessings. To each his own, but I see Intelligent Design, a Designer who is leaving HIS pattern throughout the universe.

[ArcaneKarma]

Sorry about people giving you the thumbs down. I disagree with you, but I think theists like you can make a good point on this one.

[superman734]

I can see why there would be doubters, seeing as this is a time of significant regression, but when you look at things over a very long period of time (for the case of this argument, we shall use 100 years), you do begin to see the growth trend. For instance, inflation in the cost of most things has gone up significantly from 1908 to 2008, as well as the price recieved for that product, so it should be easy to accept such a conclusion as valid, and very possibly sound.

[monster2510]

perfect thanks

[giorgio67z]

very very interesting and important for stock markets

[hardoghey]

Financial Mathematics FTW!!!

[cawleym1]

This universal sequence of numbers could lead to the ability to predict the appearance and forms of alien life. If this ratio is set into the development of life on this planet then it could be true for life elsewhere. Just a thought.

[radurak]

Simple patterns appear frequently. No surprise.

[lexuy]

intersting, however there are a lot of other things that don't follow the fibonacci sequence too. been researching about it for a school report for finance...and there have been lots of cases where it failed to predict stock market changes. i think it's a useful tool to have an idea of what might occur, but we shouldn't completely rely on it. haha! just IMHO...XD

[deuspraiser]

Quite interesting, but if this is true than everything will increase if it is based on the Fibonacci Sequence.

[TYX91101]

Fibonacci mathematics as related to the stock market are covered in depth in Robert Prechter's book "Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior". Recommended

[steleidi]

Fibonacci series explain a type of structure that life assume during her growing path. It's not a point of target, but more a complexity strategy to be efficent and safe.

[tastankerem]

Life has its own huge plan. The fibonacci system is a proof that our lifes are not coincidences. But who did this plan, who calculated the universal course of events?

[DobermannX2]

I agree that one certainly does need to have a 'mathmatically oriented' mind to grasp this... very interesting video.

[kryptoncolomo]

quite amazing, i didn't know we had the fibonacci numbers in our own body!

[EdZep123]

So we could get rich from predicting the stock market according to Fibonnacci? Would be nice.

[AliceCrow11]

it is difficult for a non mathmatical mind to grasp but very compelling. I bought some books on this but your movie is more comprehendable thanks ever so.

[sonikalkemy]

Interesting :D