Next 100 Years - STRATFOR - George Friedman - Part 2

[sylvaros]

I read the book and loved it but one thing I kinda missed was Canada's role in the whole thing, Canada being one of the 3 countries bordering both the alatantic and the pacific

[TheJeuneTurc]

Mr. Friedman reasonable talks about Turkish realpolitik contrary much of the EU leaders who underestimate Turkish strategical depth from the Adriatic Sea to the Great China Wall. Probably Turkey will be the "geographical pivot of history" from the middle of the 21st century onwards. In this respect I agree with his views on cylical history. Yet he neglects one point on which I consider too much that is Turkey's obligation to produce "soft power" whether she would be a great power in the future.

[parthsna]

But Dr Friedman is using nominal figures to measure economy. In terms of Real GDP in purchasing power parity, Japan is number 3 not 2 and the whole rankings are considerably different.

[TheGrerex]

Land transportation means nothing to America. They don't want conquest and have no pressing threat by land. The US navy is an impenetrable defense that allows the US to always have the initiative.

[qrlosyahoocom]

and i find it interesting that two chinese people disagree on his prediction of china, and that a russian had something to point out as well :-)

[tianjon]

you have to look father than ocean. how about high speed real way. US is already left behind. and that is means lot on the military strength and economic strength. internet, imformation technologies. space technologies. and culture power. think about how a nation's culture effect other nation's children and effect two nation's future. and surely the fincial system. think about why China can threat USA recently. i can not listen to him any more. he mind is so narrow. sorry.

[bakytaska]

Interesting. I think Turkey has been working on the agenda for the past 100yrs.

[TheFuture2050]

Love Dr. George Friedman forecast including Turkey's rise back to power.

[kenzhang2006]

He made some good points. but his prediction about china and japan is pretty wrong. China's economic growth will bring the prosperity to all the people of china. It is already seen that the coastal province slow down while hinterland of china speed up. The Poor province is catch up very fast. China will not fragment like what he said. The capitalism need a large market. The economy make today china much more united than before.

[mgodley89]

He is not underestimating India...India will never be a major power at least certainly not in the near future. India has too many divisions within its provincial government from race, language, and culture. However, the most important to note is the economic differences between the competing provinces, which is not controlled by the central government leaving India unable to move forward as a power.

[DPat6590]

Wait he said Japan's economy is larger than China's, I thought China currently had like the largest since our economy went down.  Can anyone tell me how China's economy is doing right now.

[204pegcity]

Japan and Germany are considered the World's two 'Economic Superpowers'

[RiceLee22]

The US is still larger, by a big gap. Of course, counting the EU, the EU is larger than the US by a smaller gap.

If you use nominal GDP, Japan is still higher than China. Using PPP however, Chinese GDP is nearly double that of Japan.

[IAMELECTROBOYYY]

Japan has an army larger than the British?!

Wow.

A medium strength power

[userblue]

British army is very small, even though it fights a lot.

[leventbkk]

alexandeR, byzantiuM, oTTomanS all same anatolian spirit...will returN...soon in world theatrE.

[Marshal2909]

@leventbkk

hehe And 10k of Polish forces will stop you at Vienna again ;)

[mgodley89]

Your over estimating the recession...this forecast was done prior to the economic problems that are being seen today and this will not be a long term problem that will carry on through the "next 100 years".... the United States will remain the economic power because he pointed out Europe's inability to let their businesses fall due to the close relationship between banking, business, and politics...which is exactly why Europe has been hit much more drastically than in the U.S

[Mojo1982]

Fascinating, it seems Mr Friedman hasn't factored in this economic crisis into his forecasts. How will this new Great Depression impact on the world?

[Lanparth]

He's assuming that the Americans won't collapse as well. Which is a possibility as well.

[KLguy133]

I was just thinking same thing

[Chubracabra99]

i dunno about SUPER power on poland's end but he did have a good argument about US influence with SK and all besides that i also think brazil could easily be a regional power in my view

[hizmetten]

I would not agree on Russia`s end.

And also would not agree on the only economic rise factor of a country due to relations with US.

[Monty1994]

He's dead right on india, indonesia and russia. He didn't say russia is going to disappear, but if the population decline continues at this rate they will have fewer than 100 million people in 50 years.

India isn;t a natural country. It is many countries amalgamated into a former colony. look at what happened with pakistan and bangladesh, the same thing will happen with the Gujarat, Goa, etc. The county is also too fragmented along religious lines to maintain continuity.

[DiscoverRussia]

year 2008

the first year that Russia had POSITIVE birth grove rate over the dead rate since the collapse of USSR.

[Monty1994]

India isn't going anywhere any time soon. It has a major problem with the make up of its population. almost half muslim and half hindu. It is an artificial state with different languages. What happened with pakistan and bangledesh will happen with the rest of india. Do you honestly think the sikhs and hindus, or muslims and everyone else will all just get along one day in india because they are wealthier? He's also right about doing business in india, it is prohibitive.

[hakkiandbeau]

Turks establish 16 empire and always has been world power, i am sure in near future will be one of world power

[Membrane556]

I think he's underestimating India. The United States once was fragmented and still is a collection of states.

As for Russia going away not likely it has survived for hundreds of years.

The PRC will likely breakup but the resulting states might choose a common currency and military cooperation and will likely still refer to themselves collectively as China the core country historic China will likely survive just as Russia survived the breakup of the Soviet Union.

[Chubracabra99]

theres a differce between american states and india's situation, a BIG difference

[praizthinkr]

This is really awesome... I can see your skill in history and geography combine as you make your analysis. But how about Africa (a whole continent you didn't mention) and Indonesia (a large country in SE Asia)? Or the dynamics of SE Asia as a whole?