That's so stupid to use a form of gambling to try and predict where a terrorist attack will happen because what may happen is that people bet on a particular city, then in order to make a profit, you may end up with people attacking that city that "in-trade" predicted in order to make money!
@AliceInWonderlandSyn yeah, because we know that markets work that way. People short Microsoft stocks then they bomb Redmond in order to make profit. Oh wait, this works only in Hollywood movies... fuck, I better buy back those MS stocks...
The whole poll the audience comment about the audience gets it right 95% of the time is because the audience is polled on much easier questions. The call the expert gets it right 2/3 of the time because the questions asked then are generally much more difficult! That man isn't much of a statistician!
To comprehend how accurate Intrade is consider the 2010 elections. Of all avaialble markets trading on the site; every one 'predicted' was a winner but for Murkowski the write-in candidate. U.S. credit cards are no longer allowed. To move the numbers real money must be used . Partisans or idealogues have no play. Bottom line: Accuracy has no bias.
I remember when Intrade betting on finding Saddam Hussein spiked a couple of days before they found him. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the contracts for an airstrike on Iran because I believe war with Iran is right around the corner, and I noticed yesterday that the Intrade contracts on an airstrike are shooting up.
The difference between state lotteries and the prediction market is that when you bet in the lottery, your bet will not affect the results, nor can you affect the results to improve your chances of winning. In a prediction market, your betting may affect the market AND it's possible for you to influence the market to improve your chances of winning. i.e., you have a financial incentive for a certain event to happen AND you have the ability to help make it happen (it's not random).
The couple probably feels "dirty" about the whole thing because their winning on a bet is not necessarily tied to whether the outcome is something that is beneficial (to them or to society as a whole). What they "want" to happen (regardless of monetary reward) may end up conflicting with what they "need" to happen to make some money.
Not to sound mystical, but the future is in flux. But if numbers reach into the 90% or drop below 10% that in most cases constitutes a decision. But this is a gage, not a switch, and sh_t does happen. And as for McCain, the smart money does say he's loosing big time. If you think, or know he will win, put some money down cheap, and make some money.
They say Intrade predicted lots of thing... but what is the definition of "predict"... what is the future time frame when these "predictions" happened?
It seems to me that Intrade is reactive not predictive.
All contracts on Intrade have an end data, that is the predictive duration. All contracts are binary contracts, yes or no. Anything that does not have a definitive answer or end date are never used. As indicated by ojmoss, the more people trade, the more accurate, but more than that, the smarter they trade, the better. As a side effect, the more people trade, the percentage of traders that will make money in any particular contract increases.
Thanks , I understand that. My question is , say, by what date could I check out the Intrade market for Pres and know that i'm looking at an accurate prediction? Lets say McCain wins.. right now it shows he's losing.. so in what way does it predict? The night before?
No, it predicts the current 'approval' for him; if the election was run now McCain might have the % chance of winning, or get % amount of votes as indicated on the shares page.
@VinceP1974 I am pretty sure that's what they're going off of. It's less impressive when you realize that they are judging it that close to the event.
the guy makes some mistakes. first the instrument is a contract not a share. second each contract is valued at 10 dollars not 1 dollar. finally there has to be liquidity for the market to have any predictive value. most contracts on intrade, except for the presidential election, have very little volume and thus cannot be used as an accurate gage of sentiment.
@bluepurplegreen758 HAHA!! Nice spin on it :)
AliceInWonderlandSyn 1 month ago
That's so stupid to use a form of gambling to try and predict where a terrorist attack will happen because what may happen is that people bet on a particular city, then in order to make a profit, you may end up with people attacking that city that "in-trade" predicted in order to make money!
AliceInWonderlandSyn 2 months ago
@AliceInWonderlandSyn yeah, because we know that markets work that way. People short Microsoft stocks then they bomb Redmond in order to make profit. Oh wait, this works only in Hollywood movies... fuck, I better buy back those MS stocks...
DaniOcean 1 month ago
The whole poll the audience comment about the audience gets it right 95% of the time is because the audience is polled on much easier questions. The call the expert gets it right 2/3 of the time because the questions asked then are generally much more difficult! That man isn't much of a statistician!
AliceInWonderlandSyn 2 months ago 2
To comprehend how accurate Intrade is consider the 2010 elections. Of all avaialble markets trading on the site; every one 'predicted' was a winner but for Murkowski the write-in candidate. U.S. credit cards are no longer allowed. To move the numbers real money must be used . Partisans or idealogues have no play. Bottom line: Accuracy has no bias.
HotSpur999 2 months ago
I remember when Intrade betting on finding Saddam Hussein spiked a couple of days before they found him. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the contracts for an airstrike on Iran because I believe war with Iran is right around the corner, and I noticed yesterday that the Intrade contracts on an airstrike are shooting up.
therock0603 3 months ago
@therock0603 it's only $2.60(26%), actually I was surprised how low the price is.
DaniOcean 1 month ago
@DaniOcean My comment is from 2 months ago when it suddenly shot up from 15% to over 40%.
therock0603 1 month ago
@therock0603 I noticed but just after I posted the comment :) this will teach me to be more carefully next time.
DaniOcean 1 month ago
btw, I wouldn't open markets on terrorism prediction. That would simply be a huge incentive to do an act of terrorism yourself.
MareTranquil 5 months ago
@MareTranquil that's right the only thing keeping me from strapping on a bomb and blowing up buildings is that I wouldn't make any money from it.
sfbuck415 2 months ago
@sfbuck415 lol, got 'em!
gshooting 2 months ago
200.000 dollars from intrade? Judging by the betting frequence I've seen there, they must have bought half of the McCain-Shares in existence there...
MareTranquil 5 months ago
The reason why Intrade is accurate is that people put their money on the line.
Thatmakessense356 5 months ago 3
I hope that couple didn't invest too much money in McCain.
Hello59239 8 months ago
what happened to the couple that bet on mccain? how much money did they lose?
rifter7777 8 months ago
@rifter7777 They bet on Mccain receiving the nomination, not being the president. Please pay attention.
Thatmakessense356 5 months ago
Stossel = libertarian
Libertarians rock
phxfreddy 10 months ago
Stossel Rocks!!!!! Intrade Rocks!
drbiomed1 1 year ago
GIVE ME A BREAK.
flyworld3 3 years ago
that guy has a horrible mustache
ajadoniz 3 years ago
geraldo wannabe :D
trisnjok 2 years ago
The difference between state lotteries and the prediction market is that when you bet in the lottery, your bet will not affect the results, nor can you affect the results to improve your chances of winning. In a prediction market, your betting may affect the market AND it's possible for you to influence the market to improve your chances of winning. i.e., you have a financial incentive for a certain event to happen AND you have the ability to help make it happen (it's not random).
allenu 3 years ago
The couple probably feels "dirty" about the whole thing because their winning on a bet is not necessarily tied to whether the outcome is something that is beneficial (to them or to society as a whole). What they "want" to happen (regardless of monetary reward) may end up conflicting with what they "need" to happen to make some money.
allenu 3 years ago
Not to sound mystical, but the future is in flux. But if numbers reach into the 90% or drop below 10% that in most cases constitutes a decision. But this is a gage, not a switch, and sh_t does happen. And as for McCain, the smart money does say he's loosing big time. If you think, or know he will win, put some money down cheap, and make some money.
Branedy 3 years ago
I dont understand the predicitive aspect.
They say Intrade predicted lots of thing... but what is the definition of "predict"... what is the future time frame when these "predictions" happened?
It seems to me that Intrade is reactive not predictive.
VinceP1974 3 years ago
All contracts on Intrade have an end data, that is the predictive duration. All contracts are binary contracts, yes or no. Anything that does not have a definitive answer or end date are never used. As indicated by ojmoss, the more people trade, the more accurate, but more than that, the smarter they trade, the better. As a side effect, the more people trade, the percentage of traders that will make money in any particular contract increases.
Branedy 3 years ago
Thanks , I understand that. My question is , say, by what date could I check out the Intrade market for Pres and know that i'm looking at an accurate prediction? Lets say McCain wins.. right now it shows he's losing.. so in what way does it predict? The night before?
VinceP1974 3 years ago
No, it predicts the current 'approval' for him; if the election was run now McCain might have the % chance of winning, or get % amount of votes as indicated on the shares page.
ubuntututorials 3 years ago
Ah i see , I got hung up on the word "predictive" .. meaning the future.
VinceP1974 3 years ago
@VinceP1974 I am pretty sure that's what they're going off of. It's less impressive when you realize that they are judging it that close to the event.
socctty 1 year ago
the guy makes some mistakes. first the instrument is a contract not a share. second each contract is valued at 10 dollars not 1 dollar. finally there has to be liquidity for the market to have any predictive value. most contracts on intrade, except for the presidential election, have very little volume and thus cannot be used as an accurate gage of sentiment.
ojmoss 3 years ago 9