There has never been a better time to buy real estate. After all, it never goes down in price and they aren't building any more land. Buy NOW before it's too late and you will get left out of riches.
Don't be foolish. When investing in cycles you still have to watch the markets and what's going on. Until the Euro or USD colapses then it's game on. Gold and silver is where you need to be.
Everything is fine government and federal reserve will print trillions more dollars the banks can then loan out this print money all the glut of housing and commercial real-estate will be bought and the bulldozers, paving, and erecting can begin again. The party never dies as long as we print baby print. The doors of immigration must be thrown wide open no restrictions allowed with huge population increases America is back in business with mini and super malls and warehousings endless horizons.
Great comment. Foreclosures are at an all time high. Prices are crashed. Interest rates are at a 50 year low. Prices are likely to stay low until March 2012 when loans quit resetting. Then prices will only get stronger. Between 2012 and 2015 I expect a 30% jump and after 2015 I expect massive jumps in prices due to inflation and the foreclosures being sold off by then.
This analysis may have been a good guess at the time of uploading, but now many variables are playing that invalidate prediction. Most States are fighting the foreclosure proceedings, and winning. There isn't going to be more foreclosure heading the next year, banks are going to make less Economic Profit instead. Add, very little to no more homes are being built and the economy is slowly but surely on the recovery mode, and population growth make this analysis is out of date.
Loans peak in resets September 2011 and March 2012 loans almost completely stop resetting. After march 2012 prices will only get stronger. I estimate prices will rebound 30% to the upside by between 2012 and 2015 (like in the aerospace recession when foreclousres quit increasing). After the foreclosures are all sold off in 2015, prices should have a strong jump. I estimate that between 2016 and 2027 prices will jump 8 times (700%) in price.
Interest Rates rise when the value of Property is doubling. I know that this is not what is commonly accepted but you will see it happen the second half of this decade.
That is incredible. I shorted countrywide when it broke the lower channel's trendline but I got out way too soon for a slight profit. A friend of mine who was a broker told me that Countrywide was the most at risk because they had the most sub-prime loans. My entry was excellent but my exit was way too soon.
Why should people wait to buy when they can buy one now, i think people should accumulate as much debt as they can before the depression starts. Also, banks need people to borrow in order to retain their high salaries and high profits.
Mr Alan, I was wandering would it be a good idea to click claim deed a property to someone that needs a place to live and can assume the mortgage instead of walking away.
If the person can assume the mortgage it would be great. I had one approved but when I submitted all the paperwork the bank called the loan. The existing loan was 6% but the new loan that I got under pressure was 9% variable. If you ever need a heart transplant, wait for the last possible moment and get a banker's heart for it will never have been used.
Hello Mr Kendall: Do you think the housing crash will occur in Canada as well..and would it be prudent for me to wait to buy in Canada untill 2012-13?
Price drops are caused when supply grows faster than demand, so you will have to see what the building and population growth rates are in Canada. Builders built 2.2 million homes per year in 2006 which was excessive since the population increases at 2.76 million per year and there is 1 home for every 2 people (2.76 million per year population increase should be 1.4 million home sales per year). (From Census, 227 million in 1980 and 310 million in 2010).
I work in the housing developement industry in Alabama and we are having an upsurge in build homes but there are still plenty of home on the market. Has something changed to start the increase in building again?
U GUYS DONT UNDERSTAND IF THE NWO SUCCEEDS U WONT BE ABLE TO BUY ANYTHING WITH OUT THE MARK OF THE BEAST VOTE RON PAUL AND THINGS WILL CHANGE TRUST ME
do you know of anything in the city of charlotte also do you expect then end of this year that all properties across america will fall should I buy now if i can get a 20% return.
It depends on the area and the property. In Redondo Beach the prices are only down about 15% from their 2006 peaks due to lack of land. All the cities around Hawthorne, Lawndale, Torrance are about half price. If prices came down in the last 12 month in Charlotte, they will probably come down a little more before Mach 2012. I am seeing several properties so low but when I call there are 15 offers on the properties and they are already in escrow.
Arizona, Nevada, Florida and parts of California have fallen to less than a fouth of their previous values. These areas are likely to go up 20 to 30 times in price between 2016 and 2027 while the rest of the US only goes up 8 times in price. It depends on the number of foreclosures. In the city that I am in, prices are only 20% less than 2006 but in the next city over, prices are 50% less than the 2006 peak. It depends on how many homes are for sale and how many foreclosures.
Americans are idiots . i laugh at Rush Limbaugh What a dumb MO-FO . Canadas housing market is bullet proof and proving all these fools wrong . Rush you are a fat piece of shit !
The Canadian Economy truly is bullet proof. With rising oil, natural gas and lumber costs, Canada will be a strong economy the entire decade while the US will struggle. The US will struggle the first half of the decade with 4 million foreclosures that will depress construction. The second half of the decade, US Airlines, Retail and Auto manufacturers will have to face bankruptcy when the Govt raises rates.
@sprylama buy the loans adjusting does this mean for example mr bank lends you $100 000 and says you pay me back at $100 a week interest for the first 2 years then it rises to $200 for the next 5 years?
I agree. I saw a clip or Reagan trying to get the Republican ticket and complaining that the Governement was printing 20 million per day. Today it is 4.1 billion per day, 205 times more.
Do you know why houses in California are so high? What is your prediction in 2012-2014 in California. I really want to buy a house by 2014 if it goes to 100k. RIght now is about $400k.
CA RE is high because a lot of people want to live there so demand creates a higher price. Ca is so large that housing prices differ all over the state. You wont find anything for $200,000 except in areas like the Central Valley where there are a lot of foreclosures and welfare people in the towns of Stockton, Tracy, Merced, Fresno, for example. CA can be divided into 6 regions. The most expensive housing is on the coast near the ocean except for Humboldt county.
I expect CA Real Estate to be the lowest around March 2012 at the end of the wave of Alt-A and Option Adjustable rate loan resets. It would be best to try and buy between December 2011 and March 2012.
At the end of the cycle, the Banks want to get rid of the last of the foreclosures that are small, beat up or on noisy streets. They tend to sell these properties for $1,000 down. I estimate that 2014 will be one of these years where getting into Real Estate will be easy.
The FHA loan program is 3 1/2 percent down for US Citizens or Permanent Residents with at least 2 years of taxes. The Average home price in the Northeast is $240,000 so the down would be $8,400. The Midwest of $140,000 average would be $4,900 down. The South has an average home price of $150,000 and that would be $5,250 down. The West average of $210,000 would be $7,350 down. Ask the Seller to pay the closing costs (FHA is ok with this) to really keep your entry low.
yes, even though if what you say it's true (the housing market will hit the bottom in 2012). The value of dollar also hit the bottom at 2012. It's better to buy now than later when your dollars aint gonna worth jack.
The corrupt manipulative economic market influenced by banks, government, and corporations to screw everyone over for personal gain so they can live the life of kings as others suffer?
Or...
The American reality of life and liberty for anyone who pursues happiness by working with individuals on a personal level to promote mutual success and financial profit by being a problem solver and promote the TRUE America.
The Fed, Wal-Mart, and McDonald's are NOT American.
Theoretically but the banks aren't going to let the crash happen so suddenly. First started happening when people defaulted they didn't have as much control, now they don't have to foreclose if they don't want, and they have a huge inventory of money and properties so the fed will continue to manipulate markets by selecting which properties hit the market.
It's never wise to speculate even if "experts" believe this. Focus on today, focus on reality and what you can do right now to succeed.
Good comments. I expect the printing of 4.1 billion of cash per day to continue as the Govt continues stimulus packages. This should help to prop up real estate with inflation.
We can't refinance our home because we're "not in trouble"? WTF! We can't reduce our interest rate to 4% from 6.25, because the greedy BASTARDS on Wall Street & Capitol Hill need their F()@%!&G Prostitution Money! O'Bahahahahama is LIAR! The WHOLE financial system is corrupt, and run by sickening, rotten to the core creatures that call themselves human beings. They're not worth the air they breathe. I wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire!
It all depends on the price and terms. Interest rates are most likely going to be the lowest in 2010 and 2011 when real estate prices are falling. In 2012 prices should stop falling because of fewer resets. Maybe rates will jump in 2012 by a percent. At the end of 2011 prices and rates will be the lowest. I am trying to buy one in 2010 and another in 2011 to take advantage of the low interest rates.
@MrAlanKendall Do you have an opinion on the so called "foreclosure mess"? I've been predicting a federally mandated, comprehensive refinancing "initiative" that essentially insists that all mortgatgors refinance their loan per a federal program at a fixed rate near 4% or possibly lower. And that this would mark the "bottom" for property prices, and also be the conception of "Sonnie Mac", the incestuous mutant spawn of Fannie and Freddie.
404,000 homes foreclosed on in 2007, 850,000 in 2008, 900,000 in 2009, on track for 1,000,000 in 2010 and 1,000,000 more foreclosures in 2011 (2011 has as many resets as 2008). I believe that it will take into 2016 to sell off the bank owned foreclosures. The problem is that we lost 2 million jobs in 2010 and Business know that when the Govt raises rates, many will be forced into bankruptcy so they are continuing to be conservative and are still trying to cut costs.
Between 2016 and 2020 Real Estate will quadruple in price. This is because the Govt is printing and releasing 4.1 billion of cash per day but the foreclosures and unemployment are keeping inflation under control. When foreclosures are completly sold off in 2016 inflation will not be under control and the Banks will loan money very easily on properties and prices will rise fast. I expect prices to double by 2018, quadrulple by 2020, six times more by 2023 and 8 times by 2027.
Between 2016 and 2018 Real Estate will double in price (just 3 years). The glut of foreclosures will keep the price of Real Estate low until 2016 and the massive printing of money will all be released into Real Estate once the foreclosures dry up and price rise. 350 billion dollars of cash is being retained by BofA, Citycorp and Chase. When prices rise, the Govt will raise rates causing Retail, Autos and Airline to be in bankruptcy prolonging the recession.
@WGS669 That would be another example of BIG GUB'MNT telling banks they MUST provide this refinancing service, and like O'Bahahahama Care, citizens MUST "sign up" or be punished with fines and jail time? I don't think it will fly........
This is awesome news!!! Thank god for recessions and job loss. Now I can finally take my pick on a nice house in an area I want thanks to our government and banks ,being the outstanding Institutions that they are. They sucked the life blood out of millions of Americans like a Vampire that hasn't had a "bite to eat" for nearly 100 years. Government + Banks = WIN!!! They truly help people like ME!! Thank you Congress!!! Thank you Wall Street. Without you guys, life would suck.
@myg0tBUTTPLUG I don't know if you are being sarcastic but if you aren't then I agree. I am 23 so I would not stand a chance at owning a house if the market did not crash. I wouldn't want to pay millions to the baby boomers just because they got into the job market sooner than me because of when they were born.
Record foreclosures (over 1 million per year) are expected into 2012 so residential prices will not jump between 2010 and 2012. I do have a price graph that you can look at. I expect minor price strengthening 2012 through 2015 (maybe 20%) but I expect a 400% rise between 2016 and 2020. I expect 2027 prices in LA to be at least 6 times the current price. Dont worry about getting the absolute bottom in price, take advantage of 70 year low rates, get a fixed loan and hold on.
Yes, we have to be careful because prices are still coming down in some areas. I expect there to be many good years to buy up to 2016. The last time we had 69% of americans owning homes was in 66 and it took till 1976 to clean up the foreclosures. Since we have time, we should be patient and get the lowest price per square foot possible and the lowest interest rate possible.
Commercial real estate agencies come in. There are several commercial real estate agencies that are present all over the world; they work in providing the houses and the land that the customer wants.
Although the facts presented here are undeniable, it fails to take into account all the tinkering the Federal and State governments have taken to delay the processing of all those failed mortgages. You can add another two (2) years to your recommendation, "...buy 2012 and after."
Every FED in recent history has kept rates low and accommodated president's before an election.
Interest rates will be kept at all time lows until the election in 2012 - so anyone who's mortgage resets will simply win the lottery with lower rates or roughly equal rates.
Middle america($100,000- $300,000 yearly income joint or single)has quit speculating on the housing market. They know they were lucky to get out by their shorthairs. Most foreclosures are now being attributed to the people making this kind of money and much much more, even into the millions. These people are walking away from their properties(residential and commercial) because they were not fast enough to find a seat when the music stopped. The poor are far from being the only bad loans.
I am harsh in my words, however, the harshness of the international fraud commited and engineered by Goofs in suits in the states and the financial catastrophy drawn upon it's citizens is beyond harsh. They also come up with stupid terms which sound complex and civillized so the average layman just goes along with it. One of these words is QUANTITATIVE EASING, ummm
that means CREATING MONEY magically, by going to the printing press and printing away. Look you are now rich, yay. Morons.
The experts can suck my cock, HYPERINFLATION is the only thing that is going to happen to your nation. 2012-13-14 Forget about it. MACRO wise, the country as a whole is BANKRUPT. Do you know the definition of BANKRUPT?
A.The country has printed close to 3 TRILLION in the past 2 years more money printed than in it's history.
B. The country is indebted to ASIA over 16+ TRILLION.Toilet paper is taken, stamped with Franklin's face on it and called USD an used to BAIL OUT THE ECONOMY. my BALLS.
1.6 trillion Alt-A and option-adjustable-rate residential loans will adjust in 2010 and 2011 this is deflationary pressure in real estate prices. Also Comercial Loans will reset in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and this will also be deflationary pressure via commercial Real Estate. Most certainly we will not experience inflartion in prices before 2014.
Gold bottomed out in 2001 when it hit $250 per ounce. Now I expect gold to go to over $8,000 per ounce this decade. Buying gold is safe. Gold broke through $1,000 and people see it as expensive. This mistake was made in the 1970's when gold went over $100 for the first time and people thought it was expensive and sold it only to see it rise to $300 in a couple of years and then hit $850. This type of recession where they can only raise rates lasts many years.
Typically the third and fourth quarter Jewelry companies buy silver and gold for Christmas sales and January India wedding sales. Gold is likely to go up this year to another high. After Gold broke $1000, I doubt Gold will fall below $1000 for very long.
All of those stats are true and should be kept in mind, but completely ignores that all real estate is local. There are areas of the country that are thriving and which had few of those loans. Using national stats to predict local markets is a little like saying the weather in the US today is sunny.
1.6 million default notices were mailed between January 2010 and June 2010. One million homes are expected to be taken back by banks in 2010 and this is the highest ever. 2011 has the largest wave of loans that will reset. Sure this will mostly affect California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida through Janiuary 2012.
If you're buying for investment, just do it in areas where there wasn't a huge run-up in prices. The coming Mortgage Bust Part 2 will mostly effect markets in CA, NV, FL, etc. where the housing bubble hit. There are many great investment properties outside of these markets.
I've read real estate agents proclaiming how affordable Southern California is now, but I still see middle class 3 and 4 bedroom homes listing in the $500k-$600k range in a lot of areas of Orange and LA County. Those prices are not affordable for the average income.
I agree that supply and demand is very local and each person must weigh the affect of these loans adjusting in their area. Last Thursday the news came out that 900,000 foreclosures occured in 2009, and over 1 million expected in 2010. A larger wave of loans will adjust in 2011 so January 2012 will be some form of price low. Foreclosures are increasing in Los Angeles County where I live and prices have come down in the area I am interested in buying in, but not in the Beach Cities.
I wouldn't buy in 2012 either. The D A Y the last Arm is through the system, interest rates are going to sore. No one will be able to afford the new $300,000+ houses and we'll have a whole new issue on our hands.
Yes I agree. The last report that I read says that in 2015 foreclosures will dry up and finally be resolved. After 2015 prices will rise. So we have 2010 through 2016 to be patient and only buy something that makes business sense. Only a small percentage of properties (maybe 1%) make business sense.
shouldnt you buy real estate when the market is down? and rent them up and then sell them when the market is booming? someone answer me because i still dont get into real estate business
In California foreclosures dryed up in 1998 and then from 1998 to 2006 prices trippled. When foreclosures are increasing in number as in the US from 2004 to 2006 that is a sign that you should be selling. From 1998 to 2003 there were not foreclosures so that is the "Rise" and "HOLD" period. The last report that I read says that foreclosures will dry up in 2015, so after 2015 prices will rise. The Height of the loans adjusting is the end of 2011 so prices will be the lowest at the end 2011.
I think we should encourage people to buy, especially first time home buyers let them buy high and when lose their job they will lose their homes and they will rent from those who wait.
But by 2012-2013, the prices will be on their way back up.This advice only makes sense if you are buying for investment. If you're buying a home for long term, buy when the prices are low and going down. Yes?
But by 2012-2013, the prices will be on their way back up.This advice only makes sense if you are buying for investment. If you're buying a home for long term, buy when the prices are low and going down. Yes?
@MrAlanKendall , Doesnt Peter Schiff, say how bad that will be ?, to keep bailing out these toxic loans... making the U.S debt even worse and the coming "Depression" longer and deeper... they laughed at him from 2002, as he kept saying that the Real Estate bubble was going to burst in 2007 or 2008....and create the shit storm it did... if you havnt listened to him and others like him, its worth while listening to his "their point of view" I`m just saying :)
Peter Schiff is a great economist and Peter believes in the inflationary wave that is happening right now and that Gold is the safest and best investment. In 2010 67% of Americans own homes and if prices fall further more people will abandon homes. Since Real Estate is also an inflationary hedge, we should be buying Real Estate and take advantage of leverage. Prices should fall 10% in 2010 and 2011 with the last resets, then strengthen 2012 on and rise 300% 2016 on.
Home prices collapse and commodities go up. What I am betting on is that since the dollar is trading at 83% of value, that exports in grains, cotton and industrial metals will continue to remain strong boosting the central states. This gives us some time before the economy really breaks down. If the home prices are jumping and the unemplyment/foreclosures are stable, I hold on. If unemployment/foreclosures jump, I sell, buy gold,beans and rice and move to a remote area.
@MrAlanKendall thats great info thanks :) I`m in Australia home prices have dropped the last 12 months, no body is spending money unless they absolutely have to, Business hasnt been the same since the Sub Prime issue... I hear about these ALT A and Option Arms loans that are resetting now in USA, Its hard enough at the moment Down Under,.are the ALT A mortage loans something to be concerned about ? we have had our fair share of foreclosures here too from the SUB Prime Issues..any thoughts :)
The Banks have re-worked 3 million loans and this is upward pressure for housing. I know a couple that both lost their jobs and Countrywide gave them a 2% loan for 5 years. My brother in law got his mortgage payment reduced from $1800 to $800 per month because his wife was not working. My Countrywide loan for a rental dropped from 7.2% to 4.1%. Rates are expected to stay low untill 2012. I expect Housing in the US to fall 5% in 2011 and January 2012 to be the price low.
How many of you took out equity loans and went on a vacation instead of reinvesting in your home. Going on a vacation dosen't make your home worth more. The majority of property I see is appraised for 1/3 of what their asking, because they took out loans for more than its worth.
Okay, I gave many of you a buzz there, let me clarify few points. The market is on the ascendance, and it has been for the last year, March 09-10. Many expected it to tank again, but it didn't. Agreed, with the idea of a little staggering in the coming six months or so, as liquidity is withdrawn. As for the real-estate, its going to remain dormant for a year, prices remain hoovering, but do not buy the wait till 2012 argument. You will miss your chance to get a good home for a good price.
Open the boarders and allow unrestricted immigration illegal and legal the glut of overstocked houses will be used up. The banks must continue to make loans to undocumented
aliens and anyone breathing. This will stimulate the economy until the next bubble then we print another trillion. The circle of economic prosperity has been set print money unrestricted immigration. Oh forgot the huge # unemployed folks go some where else American banks and corporations do not want you makes them look bad.
It's actually become more profitable to be a landlord than it was.
Rental rates are still only about 10% lower than 06. But housing prices are lower, and interest rates are lower.
So consider buying a duplex if you can afford it and rent out the other unit. That way you won't need to rely on the price of your home and your renter will pay for your mortgage.
I think astute sophisticated investors in rental properties will probably start having huge success if they buy right now.
In mid 2011 a very large portion of this crisis will be over, and we will be through the worst of it. In spite of increasing defaults the panic and mentality may be at it's worse. THAT's when you will find the best bargains. Once it stablizes people will calm down. In late 2011 they will stablize and 2012 a huge boom may take hold very fast as prices revert to where they should be. However, Obama's actions delay the inevitable as foreclosures will take a year longer to process.
This analysis makes sense but it does not include the economic recovery aspect. As far as home prices remaining stagnant seems credible, but it will never fall off the cliff like it did 07/08. There are good bargains to be had at the moment in FL,NV,AZ, and CA. Commercial home price may fall throughout 2010 summer, but will be offseted by the economic recovery. There are many who lost their homes as they lost jobs, those people are going to need homes to live in, so they will buy'em back
California has a very high mortgage to rent ratio so it is expected to still come done in price in 2010 and 2011.
No doubt some properties are so low in price that they are unreliatic and these properties should be bought. I personally am still waiting till 2012 because seriously delinquent properties are still rising in number in 2010.
Yep me too, I'm not going to buy anything until 1012. I'll wait until the dumb cash buyers run out of money then the real bargain will begin. In CA homes are still way too high.
@anglitoestebancito peak oil is bullshit now, do some extra research, there are nearly a dozen of replacements some are not even publically disclosed but to be fair from an oil perspective canada has enough oil mounds to supply the world over one century at current population growth, energy is going to become more abundant in the future, the world is going to replace oil before it runs out of it once the oil tycoons give it up, check out freeglobal energyy Infinite energy mag tesla
u r assuming there is a recovery. in reality the resession has not even started yet. and the there will be a depression thereafter for 10-15 years. props will go waaaay down across the board from now on.
@LetItFloat 70% of mortgage resets result in people upsidedown on their houses meaning they will owe more than their house is worth and 90% of those upside down end up in foreclosure. People may buy them back but they won't overpay for them. Unemployment has actually risen since 2008, despite the "job creation" that cost 300,000 per low end job.
I agree there are good bargains, if you look at foreclosures, but why not wait?
And although rates have lowered, loan standards have tightened.
@LetItFloat What economic recovery? You mean the bogus jobless bull sh*t recovery the government is claiming. Please, we need to produce something as country, not borrow money to buy stuff from China. We need to reduce the size of the government and reduce taxes. The country is completely on the wrong track!!!! If you see some recovery then you need your vision checked. The only recovery has been for the rich and well connected on wall street.
@LetItFloat, oh yes we in recovery, our economy is booming beyond recognition. I didn't realize that high unemployment was equal to high economic growth. I think we laid the entire nation off so we can grow our economy even more. I guess the less you produce the more you have, what a concept.
@LetItFloat, oh yes we in recovery, our economy is booming beyond recognition. I didn't realize that high unemployment was equal to high economic growth. I think we laid the entire nation off so we can grow our economy even more. I guess the less you produce the more you have, what a concept.
What economic recovery are you talking about? Do you mean the temporary jobs created, like census jobs that will soon disappear? There is no recovery, people will continue to lose their jobs because there is currently no incentive to employ people. Due to this people will not spend money and what makes an economy work? Money!
What economic recovery are you talking about? Do you mean the temporary jobs created, like census jobs that will soon disappear? There is no recovery, people will continue to lose their jobs because there is currently no incentive to employ people. Due to this people will not spend money and what makes an economy work? Money!
Yes, interests rates are going to go up. And do you know what that means? Prices will drop even further! Save your cash for a big downpayment, who cares what rates are if you get a low price.
Interest rates will rise and inflation will shot way up. Fine times await. I just hope interest rates rise soon enough. The f*cking government and wall street and really put this country in a terrible bind. I'm so happy I've done the right things so I can suffer! This sucks a**
As long as the government is stimulating housing, it will continue to be a very bad time to buy. I don't see this going on for many years; at least until king Obamas term ends.
In 1966, 69% of Americans owned homes and the Real Estate depression started in 1966 and lasted 10 years til 1976. In 2006, 69% of Americans owned homes. In 2010 7.5 million first loans are in default so it will take many years to clear up. In the Aerospace recession we had less foreclosures and the Real Estate was depressed in California for 8 years from 1990 to 1998. Plus in 2010 and 2011 1.6 trillion in firsts are going to adjust higher (alt-a and option adjustable rate programs).
This country is in much worse shape than it was in the 70's. We still had industry back then and we didn't have anywhere near the debt levels.
Things are going to get much worse and I wouldn't invest in real estate for probably another decade, unless some miracle happens.
The worst of the recession is in front of us. You are just witnessing an artificial recovery due to government intervention. A lot of bad things will be happening. Buy precious metals and stock up on supplies!
You are misusing the word "own". Most americans DO NOT OWN their homes, banks do. America is a nation of renters and mortgage payers-so called "home owners". Eastern europeans however OWN their homes FREE AND CLEAR. No renting or paying a mortgage, being a slave to the banks! USA IS BROKE AND BANKRUPT.!
Don't forget to also take into account interest rates around 5% on a 30yr fixed rate right now. 12-24 months from now a higher interest rate would cancel out any depreciation; so its an interest rate gamble whether to wait or buy now. But if your a cash buyer - then yes wait.
the media is important because democracy is important and people need to know what is really going on ?Looking only at the civilian population of 237 Million, with 138 Million working that's a 41% overall not employed rate where 99 Million eligible workers are not employed. Consider that the 138 Million are supporting the US population of 305 Million.hyperinflation,tax revenues disapearing ,some recovery ?this is not what the media is telling you ,so what about democracy ?
I saw a 3 bedroom townhome in Carson for 65,000 and three others for under 100,000. So some prices are really low. The banks want a lot of down payment and in these cases all cash, so I am waiting until the second half of 2011 so that softer prices will push prices down in the South Bay and Banks will then be willing to take my offers. If I put all my money in one property then I will run out of cash. If I wait and I can get in with little down, I will buy more than one property.
in vegas they are tearing down new unfinished homes to lower surplus,and most are worthless and arent even worth finishing,basically the land is the only thing of value that it sits on ,the house is worthless like parting out an old automobile,welcome to the third world brought to you by 1 rogue leader ,and everyone thought democracy was invincable
The first wave caused January of 2009 to be a price low, then prices in one out of 3 cities in america went up afterwards. Since the second wave is similar, January 2012 will be the price low. I plan to start looking September 2011 and buy around January 2012 right at the height of the housing weakness.
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 10 Jan 2010 at 05:49:40 AM GMT is:
The estimated population of the United States is 307,625,736 so each citizen's share of this debt is $39,951.13.
The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $3.93 billion per day since September 28, 2007! Concerned? Then tell Congress and the White House!
But this is an excellent time to buy a house if you have credit. With the continued inflation of the US dollar it is a very good time to buy. At the rate we're going, the US dollar will easily lose 50%+ of it's value if not more.
Locked in 30yr fixed mortgage for 500K (30% down) > buy university house > rent to students = rent pays for interest of mortgage every month. Devaluation of the dollar makes the price of the home an absolute bargain.
@mpoho2000 Inflation like that will not increase real estate values. It will in fact crash values. Look at countries where hyper-inflation has hit in the past. With runaway inflation people will be unemployed, making less money and spending what they have on food and utilities. Leaving very little money for buying homes. Because the dollar loses it's value doesn't mean everyone gets a raise.
Remember what happened with the Sub-prime fallout. The dollar shot up tremendously. Why would the second wave be any different? Unless of course you believe that the world will be decoupled from the US economy at that point.
@mongobobo The dollar strengthening was irrational and because other countries needed some place to try and story wealth. The dollar is in decline, make no mistake about it. If you think the dollar is so great, then store all your wealth in dollars under your mattress. Then in 5-10 years see how much it buys.
@SIGN666 No government forced bills that force banks to lend to people with bad credit is the problem. Government bills forced banks to give bad loans,thats the problem einstein. Sweden? you mean the welfare state who welcomes muslims at the expence of Sweedish nationals? educate yourself before you make such a ignorant statement.
I think you need to define what you mean by Capitalism. I understand it as a system where Capital is privately held. The means of production (labor) are controlled by the Capitalists in the 'marketplace.' So I'm guessing no one on this youtube page is a Capitalist, but more likely a member of the 'laborforce.' To be a Capitalist means you don't work but rather you live off your Capital in the form of dividends and Capital gains. Americans often confuse Capitalism with Free Enterprise.
You know. I used to be Pro Capitalism all the way.
Now..I don't know what to think. These Banks did a tremendous amount of abuse to the USA. The government intervened and said "Everyone should own a house". Nobody is entitled to a house unless they can truly afford it. But the banks had that Capitalism Greedy spirit and now have destroyed America. Government intervention + Banks = Destroy Lives
Friend, what we have in America is not capitalism. What we have is fascism. When government and corrupt corporations get in bed together and take part in illegal in immoral behavior, that is fascism. If you want a solid idea about what is going on there is a youtube vid called "Freedom To Fascism" by the great Aaron Russo. Watch it when you have nothing to do.
@myg0tBUTTPLUG I agree about the government getting involved in the banks is a bad Idea. This is not Capitalism. Actually in a true capitalist country the banks would not have been forced to make bad loans to help social welfare,nor would they have been bailed out. What you should be mad at is the Government using peoples greed to take any control from the people to start a new global criminal org. Socialist laws crippled this country.Look how far ahead of the world America was 20 years ago.
In December 2009 7.5 mllion are late on their payment on first loans (2.5 million sub-prime and 5 million related to job loss). In 2010 and 2011, 1.6 trilllion more loans will reset (sub-primes were 1 trillion) and 800 billion comercial loans are late. In 2009 I can see that January 2012 will be the next price low. It is the law of supply and demand, when foreclosures go up, prices must fall. In2009 low rates and few resets firmed prices but 2010 and 2011 home prices will fall.
@MrAlanKendall That is what should happen,but the government will do as always and inflate a market and push it down the road further. Fannie is now renting 65000 homes to people who defaulted,that is interfering with a free market,ofcoarse the government wants house prices high,they get more tax income and the public is too dumb to understand it. Markets are still overpriced but that does not mean it will correct,when a market is manipulated markets can hold for a suprising amount of time.
Absolutely, the Government is doing as much manipulation as it can to keep compercial and residential real estate proped up so it wont colapse. I still relate it to the early 1970's when the 1972 and 1975 stimulus packages kept properties from collapsing. The trick was to buy in 1976 when foreclosures dried up, then real estate quadrupled nationwide in only 5 years. Ten years from now we will see that 2012 through 2016 was a great time to buy.
"The trick was to buy in 1976 when foreclosures dried up, then real estate quadrupled nationwide in only 5 years"
Everything at least quadrupled. Food, energy, precious metals. That wasn't real estate becoming more valuable, it was the dollar falling like a brick.
."Ten years from now we will see that 2012 through 2016 was a great time to buy."
Will we? I think precious metals will beat real estate by man, many times.
@Chessnha many people can forcast the market,the government knew the crash was coming,they didn't say anything because it is what they want to push their pathetic agenda on the people. If we had no crisis people would never let these blind laws pass.....Many people inc
There has never been a better time to buy real estate. After all, it never goes down in price and they aren't building any more land. Buy NOW before it's too late and you will get left out of riches.
dmimcg 1 month ago
Take a look at the YouTube video-- Mortgage Tsunami Two: 2011-2013
urbanecondetroit 4 months ago
Don't be foolish. When investing in cycles you still have to watch the markets and what's going on. Until the Euro or USD colapses then it's game on. Gold and silver is where you need to be.
Thorneization 4 months ago
Everything is fine government and federal reserve will print trillions more dollars the banks can then loan out this print money all the glut of housing and commercial real-estate will be bought and the bulldozers, paving, and erecting can begin again. The party never dies as long as we print baby print. The doors of immigration must be thrown wide open no restrictions allowed with huge population increases America is back in business with mini and super malls and warehousings endless horizons.
jobedied 5 months ago
I still still correct ?
reallyletsdoit 5 months ago
Invest all your money right now.This is the best time to buy Foreclosures,Tomorrow will be too late
jamcocktail 7 months ago
@jamcocktail
Great comment. Foreclosures are at an all time high. Prices are crashed. Interest rates are at a 50 year low. Prices are likely to stay low until March 2012 when loans quit resetting. Then prices will only get stronger. Between 2012 and 2015 I expect a 30% jump and after 2015 I expect massive jumps in prices due to inflation and the foreclosures being sold off by then.
MrAlanKendall 7 months ago
This analysis may have been a good guess at the time of uploading, but now many variables are playing that invalidate prediction. Most States are fighting the foreclosure proceedings, and winning. There isn't going to be more foreclosure heading the next year, banks are going to make less Economic Profit instead. Add, very little to no more homes are being built and the economy is slowly but surely on the recovery mode, and population growth make this analysis is out of date.
no pun intended
Airforcing 8 months ago 2
@Airforcing
Loans peak in resets September 2011 and March 2012 loans almost completely stop resetting. After march 2012 prices will only get stronger. I estimate prices will rebound 30% to the upside by between 2012 and 2015 (like in the aerospace recession when foreclousres quit increasing). After the foreclosures are all sold off in 2015, prices should have a strong jump. I estimate that between 2016 and 2027 prices will jump 8 times (700%) in price.
MrAlanKendall 8 months ago
What will happen to real estate prices when interest rates rise?
lizadfuel 8 months ago
@lizadfuel
Interest Rates rise when the value of Property is doubling. I know that this is not what is commonly accepted but you will see it happen the second half of this decade.
MrAlanKendall 8 months ago
Goldman Sachs made huge profits from the housing crisis by betting that people wouldn't be able to pay their mortgages.
melvin6767 8 months ago
@melvin6767
That is incredible. I shorted countrywide when it broke the lower channel's trendline but I got out way too soon for a slight profit. A friend of mine who was a broker told me that Countrywide was the most at risk because they had the most sub-prime loans. My entry was excellent but my exit was way too soon.
MrAlanKendall 8 months ago
Why should people wait to buy when they can buy one now, i think people should accumulate as much debt as they can before the depression starts. Also, banks need people to borrow in order to retain their high salaries and high profits.
Soneenee 9 months ago 3
Mr Alan, I was wandering would it be a good idea to click claim deed a property to someone that needs a place to live and can assume the mortgage instead of walking away.
sweetnet77 9 months ago
@sweetnet77
If the person can assume the mortgage it would be great. I had one approved but when I submitted all the paperwork the bank called the loan. The existing loan was 6% but the new loan that I got under pressure was 9% variable. If you ever need a heart transplant, wait for the last possible moment and get a banker's heart for it will never have been used.
MrAlanKendall 9 months ago
Hello Mr Kendall: Do you think the housing crash will occur in Canada as well..and would it be prudent for me to wait to buy in Canada untill 2012-13?
bluehorse888 10 months ago
@bluehorse888
Price drops are caused when supply grows faster than demand, so you will have to see what the building and population growth rates are in Canada. Builders built 2.2 million homes per year in 2006 which was excessive since the population increases at 2.76 million per year and there is 1 home for every 2 people (2.76 million per year population increase should be 1.4 million home sales per year). (From Census, 227 million in 1980 and 310 million in 2010).
MrAlanKendall 10 months ago
I work in the housing developement industry in Alabama and we are having an upsurge in build homes but there are still plenty of home on the market. Has something changed to start the increase in building again?
MiaMonique 11 months ago
@MiaMonique
Nothing has changed. In 2010 one million homes were foreclosed on and in 2011 another one million foreclosures are expected.
MrAlanKendall 11 months ago
@MiaMonique
It's all just stimulous money, as soon as that's all gone and inflation and interest rates skyrocket, all those houses will soon be empty too.
When a government doesn't fully allow Ponze economies to crash, they only prolong the crash, they never avoid it.
LUVallova 10 months ago
U GUYS DONT UNDERSTAND IF THE NWO SUCCEEDS U WONT BE ABLE TO BUY ANYTHING WITH OUT THE MARK OF THE BEAST VOTE RON PAUL AND THINGS WILL CHANGE TRUST ME
cosmicfeedom 11 months ago
do you know of anything in the city of charlotte also do you expect then end of this year that all properties across america will fall should I buy now if i can get a 20% return.
Bennyclay661 11 months ago
@Bennyclay661
It depends on the area and the property. In Redondo Beach the prices are only down about 15% from their 2006 peaks due to lack of land. All the cities around Hawthorne, Lawndale, Torrance are about half price. If prices came down in the last 12 month in Charlotte, they will probably come down a little more before Mach 2012. I am seeing several properties so low but when I call there are 15 offers on the properties and they are already in escrow.
MrAlanKendall 11 months ago
So could I ask if you could point me to any videos/sources that confrim your video here of the loan ajustments that will come into place in 2011
Bennyclay661 11 months ago
What can you say about micro economies such as the city of new york compared to
the city of memphis for there many factors from city to city.
Bennyclay661 11 months ago
@Bennyclay661
Arizona, Nevada, Florida and parts of California have fallen to less than a fouth of their previous values. These areas are likely to go up 20 to 30 times in price between 2016 and 2027 while the rest of the US only goes up 8 times in price. It depends on the number of foreclosures. In the city that I am in, prices are only 20% less than 2006 but in the next city over, prices are 50% less than the 2006 peak. It depends on how many homes are for sale and how many foreclosures.
MrAlanKendall 11 months ago
Americans are idiots . i laugh at Rush Limbaugh What a dumb MO-FO . Canadas housing market is bullet proof and proving all these fools wrong . Rush you are a fat piece of shit !
sprylama 1 year ago
@sprylama
The Canadian Economy truly is bullet proof. With rising oil, natural gas and lumber costs, Canada will be a strong economy the entire decade while the US will struggle. The US will struggle the first half of the decade with 4 million foreclosures that will depress construction. The second half of the decade, US Airlines, Retail and Auto manufacturers will have to face bankruptcy when the Govt raises rates.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@sprylama buy the loans adjusting does this mean for example mr bank lends you $100 000 and says you pay me back at $100 a week interest for the first 2 years then it rises to $200 for the next 5 years?
Bennyclay661 1 year ago
@Bennyclay661
These loan packages were given at teaser 3 and 4% interest rates. The rates will adjust up to 5% and a lot of people cannot pay the extra 1 or 2%.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall amazes me that nobody remembers the 20% interest rates at the end of the 70s bubble and this one seems worse!
sang3Eta 11 months ago
@sang3Eta
I agree. I saw a clip or Reagan trying to get the Republican ticket and complaining that the Governement was printing 20 million per day. Today it is 4.1 billion per day, 205 times more.
MrAlanKendall 11 months ago
Do you know why houses in California are so high? What is your prediction in 2012-2014 in California. I really want to buy a house by 2014 if it goes to 100k. RIght now is about $400k.
ferrari4sale 1 year ago
@ferrari4sale
CA RE is high because a lot of people want to live there so demand creates a higher price. Ca is so large that housing prices differ all over the state. You wont find anything for $200,000 except in areas like the Central Valley where there are a lot of foreclosures and welfare people in the towns of Stockton, Tracy, Merced, Fresno, for example. CA can be divided into 6 regions. The most expensive housing is on the coast near the ocean except for Humboldt county.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@ferrari4sale
I expect CA Real Estate to be the lowest around March 2012 at the end of the wave of Alt-A and Option Adjustable rate loan resets. It would be best to try and buy between December 2011 and March 2012.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
Great topic.
xenoninvestments 1 year ago
2014 looks like the best year to invest in real estate from what I can tell. . .
MegaAvalonn 1 year ago
@MegaAvalonn
At the end of the cycle, the Banks want to get rid of the last of the foreclosures that are small, beat up or on noisy streets. They tend to sell these properties for $1,000 down. I estimate that 2014 will be one of these years where getting into Real Estate will be easy.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
Are you telling me I can buy a house for $5000 bucks in 2012
markustolenitno 1 year ago
@markustolenitno
The FHA loan program is 3 1/2 percent down for US Citizens or Permanent Residents with at least 2 years of taxes. The Average home price in the Northeast is $240,000 so the down would be $8,400. The Midwest of $140,000 average would be $4,900 down. The South has an average home price of $150,000 and that would be $5,250 down. The West average of $210,000 would be $7,350 down. Ask the Seller to pay the closing costs (FHA is ok with this) to really keep your entry low.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
yes, even though if what you say it's true (the housing market will hit the bottom in 2012). The value of dollar also hit the bottom at 2012. It's better to buy now than later when your dollars aint gonna worth jack.
bigbrightsky 1 year ago
Many thanks for the information.
mmksa100MM 1 year ago
@madmankitchen
Which one?
The corrupt manipulative economic market influenced by banks, government, and corporations to screw everyone over for personal gain so they can live the life of kings as others suffer?
Or...
The American reality of life and liberty for anyone who pursues happiness by working with individuals on a personal level to promote mutual success and financial profit by being a problem solver and promote the TRUE America.
The Fed, Wal-Mart, and McDonald's are NOT American.
InteractivRealEstate 1 year ago
Theoretically but the banks aren't going to let the crash happen so suddenly. First started happening when people defaulted they didn't have as much control, now they don't have to foreclose if they don't want, and they have a huge inventory of money and properties so the fed will continue to manipulate markets by selecting which properties hit the market.
It's never wise to speculate even if "experts" believe this. Focus on today, focus on reality and what you can do right now to succeed.
InteractivRealEstate 1 year ago
@InteractivRealEstate
Good comments. I expect the printing of 4.1 billion of cash per day to continue as the Govt continues stimulus packages. This should help to prop up real estate with inflation.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
We can't refinance our home because we're "not in trouble"? WTF! We can't reduce our interest rate to 4% from 6.25, because the greedy BASTARDS on Wall Street & Capitol Hill need their F()@%!&G Prostitution Money! O'Bahahahahama is LIAR! The WHOLE financial system is corrupt, and run by sickening, rotten to the core creatures that call themselves human beings. They're not worth the air they breathe. I wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire!
TheDigitalWeb 1 year ago
woo, I like this video, a good reminder as I remember reading about this back in 2007 and had forgotten about it since then.
imzjustplayin 1 year ago
What are your thought on rural land, should we wait till 2012 there too?
jlmiller77 1 year ago
@jlmiller77
It all depends on the price and terms. Interest rates are most likely going to be the lowest in 2010 and 2011 when real estate prices are falling. In 2012 prices should stop falling because of fewer resets. Maybe rates will jump in 2012 by a percent. At the end of 2011 prices and rates will be the lowest. I am trying to buy one in 2010 and another in 2011 to take advantage of the low interest rates.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall Do you have an opinion on the so called "foreclosure mess"? I've been predicting a federally mandated, comprehensive refinancing "initiative" that essentially insists that all mortgatgors refinance their loan per a federal program at a fixed rate near 4% or possibly lower. And that this would mark the "bottom" for property prices, and also be the conception of "Sonnie Mac", the incestuous mutant spawn of Fannie and Freddie.
WGS669 1 year ago
@WGS669
404,000 homes foreclosed on in 2007, 850,000 in 2008, 900,000 in 2009, on track for 1,000,000 in 2010 and 1,000,000 more foreclosures in 2011 (2011 has as many resets as 2008). I believe that it will take into 2016 to sell off the bank owned foreclosures. The problem is that we lost 2 million jobs in 2010 and Business know that when the Govt raises rates, many will be forced into bankruptcy so they are continuing to be conservative and are still trying to cut costs.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@WGS669
Between 2016 and 2020 Real Estate will quadruple in price. This is because the Govt is printing and releasing 4.1 billion of cash per day but the foreclosures and unemployment are keeping inflation under control. When foreclosures are completly sold off in 2016 inflation will not be under control and the Banks will loan money very easily on properties and prices will rise fast. I expect prices to double by 2018, quadrulple by 2020, six times more by 2023 and 8 times by 2027.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall is that how you making money
lusaka99 1 year ago
@lusaka99
Between 2016 and 2018 Real Estate will double in price (just 3 years). The glut of foreclosures will keep the price of Real Estate low until 2016 and the massive printing of money will all be released into Real Estate once the foreclosures dry up and price rise. 350 billion dollars of cash is being retained by BofA, Citycorp and Chase. When prices rise, the Govt will raise rates causing Retail, Autos and Airline to be in bankruptcy prolonging the recession.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@WGS669 That would be another example of BIG GUB'MNT telling banks they MUST provide this refinancing service, and like O'Bahahahama Care, citizens MUST "sign up" or be punished with fines and jail time? I don't think it will fly........
TheDigitalWeb 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall whats the interest in mortgages in 2010 December
lusaka99 1 year ago
@lusaka99
The last I saw was 4.55% fixed.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
This is awesome news!!! Thank god for recessions and job loss. Now I can finally take my pick on a nice house in an area I want thanks to our government and banks ,being the outstanding Institutions that they are. They sucked the life blood out of millions of Americans like a Vampire that hasn't had a "bite to eat" for nearly 100 years. Government + Banks = WIN!!! They truly help people like ME!! Thank you Congress!!! Thank you Wall Street. Without you guys, life would suck.
myg0tBUTTPLUG 1 year ago
@myg0tBUTTPLUG I don't know if you are being sarcastic but if you aren't then I agree. I am 23 so I would not stand a chance at owning a house if the market did not crash. I wouldn't want to pay millions to the baby boomers just because they got into the job market sooner than me because of when they were born.
agate112 1 year ago
Wow, thanks for the advice Mr.Kendall.....Can you show me the chart :)
avidolz 1 year ago
@avidolz
On youtube.com, type Type in "Real Estate Prices show when to Buy, Flip and Sell" and the chart will come right up.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
I am buying my condo in Los Angeles fall of 2013. Do you think price will fall further now until that time? Can you give me an suggestion?
avidolz 1 year ago
@avidolz
Record foreclosures (over 1 million per year) are expected into 2012 so residential prices will not jump between 2010 and 2012. I do have a price graph that you can look at. I expect minor price strengthening 2012 through 2015 (maybe 20%) but I expect a 400% rise between 2016 and 2020. I expect 2027 prices in LA to be at least 6 times the current price. Dont worry about getting the absolute bottom in price, take advantage of 70 year low rates, get a fixed loan and hold on.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall
Yes, we have to be careful because prices are still coming down in some areas. I expect there to be many good years to buy up to 2016. The last time we had 69% of americans owning homes was in 66 and it took till 1976 to clean up the foreclosures. Since we have time, we should be patient and get the lowest price per square foot possible and the lowest interest rate possible.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@avidolz I read that the bunnle will take as long to pop as it took to form. So the time to buy may be longer
SidneyBou 1 year ago
Commercial real estate agencies come in. There are several commercial real estate agencies that are present all over the world; they work in providing the houses and the land that the customer wants.
Buy Commercial Real Estate
commercialrealestate(dot)cc
jimamily 1 year ago
Although the facts presented here are undeniable, it fails to take into account all the tinkering the Federal and State governments have taken to delay the processing of all those failed mortgages. You can add another two (2) years to your recommendation, "...buy 2012 and after."
REOGURU 1 year ago
Every FED in recent history has kept rates low and accommodated president's before an election.
Interest rates will be kept at all time lows until the election in 2012 - so anyone who's mortgage resets will simply win the lottery with lower rates or roughly equal rates.
jobe66 1 year ago
Middle america($100,000- $300,000 yearly income joint or single)has quit speculating on the housing market. They know they were lucky to get out by their shorthairs. Most foreclosures are now being attributed to the people making this kind of money and much much more, even into the millions. These people are walking away from their properties(residential and commercial) because they were not fast enough to find a seat when the music stopped. The poor are far from being the only bad loans.
teabaggersblow 1 year ago
I am harsh in my words, however, the harshness of the international fraud commited and engineered by Goofs in suits in the states and the financial catastrophy drawn upon it's citizens is beyond harsh. They also come up with stupid terms which sound complex and civillized so the average layman just goes along with it. One of these words is QUANTITATIVE EASING, ummm
that means CREATING MONEY magically, by going to the printing press and printing away. Look you are now rich, yay. Morons.
yourmain 1 year ago
The experts can suck my cock, HYPERINFLATION is the only thing that is going to happen to your nation. 2012-13-14 Forget about it. MACRO wise, the country as a whole is BANKRUPT. Do you know the definition of BANKRUPT?
A.The country has printed close to 3 TRILLION in the past 2 years more money printed than in it's history.
B. The country is indebted to ASIA over 16+ TRILLION.Toilet paper is taken, stamped with Franklin's face on it and called USD an used to BAIL OUT THE ECONOMY. my BALLS.
yourmain 1 year ago
@yourmain
1.6 trillion Alt-A and option-adjustable-rate residential loans will adjust in 2010 and 2011 this is deflationary pressure in real estate prices. Also Comercial Loans will reset in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and this will also be deflationary pressure via commercial Real Estate. Most certainly we will not experience inflartion in prices before 2014.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
We have another peak in 2013-2017-20!
Commercial Real Estate!
anglitoestebancito 1 year ago 5
Poor people buy gold today. Rich people bought it in 2001.
coolestdude80 1 year ago
@coolestdude80
Yes, Warren Buffet bought 2 million ounces of silver at $4.00 per ounce.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
When will gold bottom out?
coolestdude80 1 year ago
@coolestdude80
Gold bottomed out in 2001 when it hit $250 per ounce. Now I expect gold to go to over $8,000 per ounce this decade. Buying gold is safe. Gold broke through $1,000 and people see it as expensive. This mistake was made in the 1970's when gold went over $100 for the first time and people thought it was expensive and sold it only to see it rise to $300 in a couple of years and then hit $850. This type of recession where they can only raise rates lasts many years.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall . Gold will go back down to 300 in January.....
coolestdude80 1 year ago
@coolestdude80
Typically the third and fourth quarter Jewelry companies buy silver and gold for Christmas sales and January India wedding sales. Gold is likely to go up this year to another high. After Gold broke $1000, I doubt Gold will fall below $1000 for very long.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@coolestdude80 In your dreams mate, gold will stay high for some time.
angelmtza 1 year ago
All of those stats are true and should be kept in mind, but completely ignores that all real estate is local. There are areas of the country that are thriving and which had few of those loans. Using national stats to predict local markets is a little like saying the weather in the US today is sunny.
theweiserchoice 1 year ago
@theweiserchoice
1.6 million default notices were mailed between January 2010 and June 2010. One million homes are expected to be taken back by banks in 2010 and this is the highest ever. 2011 has the largest wave of loans that will reset. Sure this will mostly affect California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida through Janiuary 2012.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
If you're buying for investment, just do it in areas where there wasn't a huge run-up in prices. The coming Mortgage Bust Part 2 will mostly effect markets in CA, NV, FL, etc. where the housing bubble hit. There are many great investment properties outside of these markets.
CoastHomebuyers1 1 year ago
@CoastHomebuyers1
I like your comment. I am looking at buying in California since the properties are about half price of what they were before.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
The graph is meaningless because the government will intervene to reinflate the bubble at the behest of the criminals in the real estate industry
monkeyman1140 1 year ago
@monkeyman1140
Absolutely, this is only to show that in 2010 and 2011 prices have downward pressure and are likely to fall 10%.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
I've read real estate agents proclaiming how affordable Southern California is now, but I still see middle class 3 and 4 bedroom homes listing in the $500k-$600k range in a lot of areas of Orange and LA County. Those prices are not affordable for the average income.
CoastHomebuyers1 1 year ago
@CoastHomebuyers1
I just saw eight two bedroom apartments in Florida for $167,000 so California is by far the highest priced state in the US.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall no. it just depends on the local market. you can't compare expensive areas like san fran to stockton, california.
gxryd3r 1 year ago
@gxryd3r
I agree that supply and demand is very local and each person must weigh the affect of these loans adjusting in their area. Last Thursday the news came out that 900,000 foreclosures occured in 2009, and over 1 million expected in 2010. A larger wave of loans will adjust in 2011 so January 2012 will be some form of price low. Foreclosures are increasing in Los Angeles County where I live and prices have come down in the area I am interested in buying in, but not in the Beach Cities.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
Okay, ill buy after doomsday!
trueredexe 1 year ago
I wouldn't buy in 2012 either. The D A Y the last Arm is through the system, interest rates are going to sore. No one will be able to afford the new $300,000+ houses and we'll have a whole new issue on our hands.
jonvssocrates 1 year ago
Yes I agree. The last report that I read says that in 2015 foreclosures will dry up and finally be resolved. After 2015 prices will rise. So we have 2010 through 2016 to be patient and only buy something that makes business sense. Only a small percentage of properties (maybe 1%) make business sense.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
shouldnt you buy real estate when the market is down? and rent them up and then sell them when the market is booming? someone answer me because i still dont get into real estate business
ashrocks87 1 year ago
In California foreclosures dryed up in 1998 and then from 1998 to 2006 prices trippled. When foreclosures are increasing in number as in the US from 2004 to 2006 that is a sign that you should be selling. From 1998 to 2003 there were not foreclosures so that is the "Rise" and "HOLD" period. The last report that I read says that foreclosures will dry up in 2015, so after 2015 prices will rise. The Height of the loans adjusting is the end of 2011 so prices will be the lowest at the end 2011.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
I think we should encourage people to buy, especially first time home buyers let them buy high and when lose their job they will lose their homes and they will rent from those who wait.
moniequa 1 year ago
I agree with this info and I cannot understand how others don't see this obvious trend from basic analysis.
I read a statement 20 years ago from a goldbug who said: "there will come a day when you can buy a home with a handful of gold coins".
That seems to be turning into a reality.
dgl1962 1 year ago
But by 2012-2013, the prices will be on their way back up.This advice only makes sense if you are buying for investment. If you're buying a home for long term, buy when the prices are low and going down. Yes?
macpduff 1 year ago
@macpduff
jnauary 2012 will some form of price low after the big wave of ALT-A and Option Adjustable rate loans that will adjust the second half of 2011.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
But by 2012-2013, the prices will be on their way back up.This advice only makes sense if you are buying for investment. If you're buying a home for long term, buy when the prices are low and going down. Yes?
macpduff 1 year ago
@macpduff
Yes to also take advantage and lock in the low rates.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
Here it is 2010 and the markets are starting to crash the great depression will look like childs play compare to the end of this year.
nas4x 1 year ago
@nas4x
The graph shows that downward pressure will exist in 2010 and 2011. If the Government is smart they will give another credit in 2010 and 2011.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall , Doesnt Peter Schiff, say how bad that will be ?, to keep bailing out these toxic loans... making the U.S debt even worse and the coming "Depression" longer and deeper... they laughed at him from 2002, as he kept saying that the Real Estate bubble was going to burst in 2007 or 2008....and create the shit storm it did... if you havnt listened to him and others like him, its worth while listening to his "their point of view" I`m just saying :)
angie7dino 1 year ago
@angie7dino
Peter Schiff is a great economist and Peter believes in the inflationary wave that is happening right now and that Gold is the safest and best investment. In 2010 67% of Americans own homes and if prices fall further more people will abandon homes. Since Real Estate is also an inflationary hedge, we should be buying Real Estate and take advantage of leverage. Prices should fall 10% in 2010 and 2011 with the last resets, then strengthen 2012 on and rise 300% 2016 on.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall Ok :) and what happens if the U.S economy and dollar collapses in 5 - 10 years, what happens to house prices then in the U.S ?
angie7dino 1 year ago
@angie7dino
Home prices collapse and commodities go up. What I am betting on is that since the dollar is trading at 83% of value, that exports in grains, cotton and industrial metals will continue to remain strong boosting the central states. This gives us some time before the economy really breaks down. If the home prices are jumping and the unemplyment/foreclosures are stable, I hold on. If unemployment/foreclosures jump, I sell, buy gold,beans and rice and move to a remote area.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
@MrAlanKendall thats great info thanks :) I`m in Australia home prices have dropped the last 12 months, no body is spending money unless they absolutely have to, Business hasnt been the same since the Sub Prime issue... I hear about these ALT A and Option Arms loans that are resetting now in USA, Its hard enough at the moment Down Under,.are the ALT A mortage loans something to be concerned about ? we have had our fair share of foreclosures here too from the SUB Prime Issues..any thoughts :)
angie7dino 1 year ago
@angie7dino
The Banks have re-worked 3 million loans and this is upward pressure for housing. I know a couple that both lost their jobs and Countrywide gave them a 2% loan for 5 years. My brother in law got his mortgage payment reduced from $1800 to $800 per month because his wife was not working. My Countrywide loan for a rental dropped from 7.2% to 4.1%. Rates are expected to stay low untill 2012. I expect Housing in the US to fall 5% in 2011 and January 2012 to be the price low.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
How many of you took out equity loans and went on a vacation instead of reinvesting in your home. Going on a vacation dosen't make your home worth more. The majority of property I see is appraised for 1/3 of what their asking, because they took out loans for more than its worth.
sleepwalker29 1 year ago
The commercial wave is as big as the second residential wave!
anglitoestebancito 1 year ago
Okay, I gave many of you a buzz there, let me clarify few points. The market is on the ascendance, and it has been for the last year, March 09-10. Many expected it to tank again, but it didn't. Agreed, with the idea of a little staggering in the coming six months or so, as liquidity is withdrawn. As for the real-estate, its going to remain dormant for a year, prices remain hoovering, but do not buy the wait till 2012 argument. You will miss your chance to get a good home for a good price.
LetItFloat 1 year ago
Ron Paul + Freedom
Help us get a competing gold backed currency in the U.K
sign the petition on the 10 downing street website. petition name is gold currency
phoinix1 1 year ago
@SIGN666 The scary thing about this comment is that is could be completely correct.
jeremyraybrown 1 year ago
Open the boarders and allow unrestricted immigration illegal and legal the glut of overstocked houses will be used up. The banks must continue to make loans to undocumented
aliens and anyone breathing. This will stimulate the economy until the next bubble then we print another trillion. The circle of economic prosperity has been set print money unrestricted immigration. Oh forgot the huge # unemployed folks go some where else American banks and corporations do not want you makes them look bad.
jobedied 1 year ago
It's actually become more profitable to be a landlord than it was.
Rental rates are still only about 10% lower than 06. But housing prices are lower, and interest rates are lower.
So consider buying a duplex if you can afford it and rent out the other unit. That way you won't need to rely on the price of your home and your renter will pay for your mortgage.
I think astute sophisticated investors in rental properties will probably start having huge success if they buy right now.
secretbonus 1 year ago
In mid 2011 a very large portion of this crisis will be over, and we will be through the worst of it. In spite of increasing defaults the panic and mentality may be at it's worse. THAT's when you will find the best bargains. Once it stablizes people will calm down. In late 2011 they will stablize and 2012 a huge boom may take hold very fast as prices revert to where they should be. However, Obama's actions delay the inevitable as foreclosures will take a year longer to process.
secretbonus 1 year ago
Notice how the "bottom" lines up perfectly with the end of the Mayan calendar? Buy a house boat.
Luvanicebum 1 year ago
@Luvanicebum
Cool post.
polocanada 11 months ago
This analysis makes sense but it does not include the economic recovery aspect. As far as home prices remaining stagnant seems credible, but it will never fall off the cliff like it did 07/08. There are good bargains to be had at the moment in FL,NV,AZ, and CA. Commercial home price may fall throughout 2010 summer, but will be offseted by the economic recovery. There are many who lost their homes as they lost jobs, those people are going to need homes to live in, so they will buy'em back
LetItFloat 1 year ago
California has a very high mortgage to rent ratio so it is expected to still come done in price in 2010 and 2011.
No doubt some properties are so low in price that they are unreliatic and these properties should be bought. I personally am still waiting till 2012 because seriously delinquent properties are still rising in number in 2010.
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
Yep me too, I'm not going to buy anything until 1012. I'll wait until the dumb cash buyers run out of money then the real bargain will begin. In CA homes are still way too high.
moniequa 1 year ago
@LetItFloat In the beginning of a torrent of liquidity, everyone mistakes inflation for economic recovery.
yuhanpanda 1 year ago 10
nah!! still gotta go down, especially since economic recovery still questionable and because energy resources are depleting fast.
Have you heard about PEAK OIL ? The suburbia as you know it is at the mercy of this phenomenon!
anglitoestebancito 1 year ago 13
@anglitoestebancito peak oil is bullshit now, do some extra research, there are nearly a dozen of replacements some are not even publically disclosed but to be fair from an oil perspective canada has enough oil mounds to supply the world over one century at current population growth, energy is going to become more abundant in the future, the world is going to replace oil before it runs out of it once the oil tycoons give it up, check out freeglobal energyy Infinite energy mag tesla
nihilistcat 1 year ago
u r assuming there is a recovery. in reality the resession has not even started yet. and the there will be a depression thereafter for 10-15 years. props will go waaaay down across the board from now on.
quadcatfly 1 year ago 16
@LetItFloat 70% of mortgage resets result in people upsidedown on their houses meaning they will owe more than their house is worth and 90% of those upside down end up in foreclosure. People may buy them back but they won't overpay for them. Unemployment has actually risen since 2008, despite the "job creation" that cost 300,000 per low end job.
I agree there are good bargains, if you look at foreclosures, but why not wait?
And although rates have lowered, loan standards have tightened.
secretbonus 1 year ago
@LetItFloat What economic recovery? You mean the bogus jobless bull sh*t recovery the government is claiming. Please, we need to produce something as country, not borrow money to buy stuff from China. We need to reduce the size of the government and reduce taxes. The country is completely on the wrong track!!!! If you see some recovery then you need your vision checked. The only recovery has been for the rich and well connected on wall street.
jeremyraybrown 1 year ago 3
@LetItFloat, oh yes we in recovery, our economy is booming beyond recognition. I didn't realize that high unemployment was equal to high economic growth. I think we laid the entire nation off so we can grow our economy even more. I guess the less you produce the more you have, what a concept.
moniequa 1 year ago
@LetItFloat, oh yes we in recovery, our economy is booming beyond recognition. I didn't realize that high unemployment was equal to high economic growth. I think we laid the entire nation off so we can grow our economy even more. I guess the less you produce the more you have, what a concept.
moniequa 1 year ago
@LetItFloat,
What economic recovery are you talking about? Do you mean the temporary jobs created, like census jobs that will soon disappear? There is no recovery, people will continue to lose their jobs because there is currently no incentive to employ people. Due to this people will not spend money and what makes an economy work? Money!
mirsaes 1 year ago
@LetItFloat,
What economic recovery are you talking about? Do you mean the temporary jobs created, like census jobs that will soon disappear? There is no recovery, people will continue to lose their jobs because there is currently no incentive to employ people. Due to this people will not spend money and what makes an economy work? Money!
mirsaes 1 year ago
@LetItFloat What economic recovery?! lol We're broke!
DUZCO10 1 year ago
They don't show you this info on Fox News, CNN or MSNBC. Why because they are the cause of this collapse as well.
DirtyVegas7 1 year ago
Nice info...thanks for sharing...you don't see this stuff on MSNBC, CNN or FOX News. WHY
DirtyVegas7 1 year ago
Yes, interests rates are going to go up. And do you know what that means? Prices will drop even further! Save your cash for a big downpayment, who cares what rates are if you get a low price.
mongobobo 1 year ago 8
Interest rates will rise and inflation will shot way up. Fine times await. I just hope interest rates rise soon enough. The f*cking government and wall street and really put this country in a terrible bind. I'm so happy I've done the right things so I can suffer! This sucks a**
jeremyraybrown 1 year ago
As long as the government is stimulating housing, it will continue to be a very bad time to buy. I don't see this going on for many years; at least until king Obamas term ends.
jjenson2006 2 years ago 3
In 1966, 69% of Americans owned homes and the Real Estate depression started in 1966 and lasted 10 years til 1976. In 2006, 69% of Americans owned homes. In 2010 7.5 million first loans are in default so it will take many years to clear up. In the Aerospace recession we had less foreclosures and the Real Estate was depressed in California for 8 years from 1990 to 1998. Plus in 2010 and 2011 1.6 trillion in firsts are going to adjust higher (alt-a and option adjustable rate programs).
MrAlanKendall 1 year ago
This country is in much worse shape than it was in the 70's. We still had industry back then and we didn't have anywhere near the debt levels.
Things are going to get much worse and I wouldn't invest in real estate for probably another decade, unless some miracle happens.
The worst of the recession is in front of us. You are just witnessing an artificial recovery due to government intervention. A lot of bad things will be happening. Buy precious metals and stock up on supplies!
jjenson2006 1 year ago
You are misusing the word "own". Most americans DO NOT OWN their homes, banks do. America is a nation of renters and mortgage payers-so called "home owners". Eastern europeans however OWN their homes FREE AND CLEAR. No renting or paying a mortgage, being a slave to the banks! USA IS BROKE AND BANKRUPT.!
pufycino 1 year ago 4
Will there be 2013?
I thought the world going to end at the end of 2012?
chimpanchu 2 years ago 5
Don't forget to also take into account interest rates around 5% on a 30yr fixed rate right now. 12-24 months from now a higher interest rate would cancel out any depreciation; so its an interest rate gamble whether to wait or buy now. But if your a cash buyer - then yes wait.
jobe66 2 years ago
If the rates go up, prices will drop degating any rate increase.
jerho7 2 years ago
the media is important because democracy is important and people need to know what is really going on ?Looking only at the civilian population of 237 Million, with 138 Million working that's a 41% overall not employed rate where 99 Million eligible workers are not employed. Consider that the 138 Million are supporting the US population of 305 Million.hyperinflation,tax revenues disapearing ,some recovery ?this is not what the media is telling you ,so what about democracy ?
spectre1929 2 years ago
great video, thank u for posting this.
HollywoodSheen 2 years ago
I saw a 3 bedroom townhome in Carson for 65,000 and three others for under 100,000. So some prices are really low. The banks want a lot of down payment and in these cases all cash, so I am waiting until the second half of 2011 so that softer prices will push prices down in the South Bay and Banks will then be willing to take my offers. If I put all my money in one property then I will run out of cash. If I wait and I can get in with little down, I will buy more than one property.
MrAlanKendall 2 years ago
in vegas they are tearing down new unfinished homes to lower surplus,and most are worthless and arent even worth finishing,basically the land is the only thing of value that it sits on ,the house is worthless like parting out an old automobile,welcome to the third world brought to you by 1 rogue leader ,and everyone thought democracy was invincable
procuts69 2 years ago
constitution tread upon,congress decieved, federal reserve counterfitting at will,total chaos ...and theyre supposed to be the smart ones
procuts69 2 years ago
The first wave caused January of 2009 to be a price low, then prices in one out of 3 cities in america went up afterwards. Since the second wave is similar, January 2012 will be the price low. I plan to start looking September 2011 and buy around January 2012 right at the height of the housing weakness.
MrAlanKendall 2 years ago
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 10 Jan 2010 at 05:49:40 AM GMT is:
The estimated population of the United States is 307,625,736 so each citizen's share of this debt is $39,951.13.
The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $3.93 billion per day since September 28, 2007! Concerned? Then tell Congress and the White House!
ohmybentley 2 years ago
i made 237 million dollars
deathx45 2 years ago
@deathx45 awesome
billjesusgates 2 years ago
But yes - 100% agree. Part 2 of the real real-estate crisis is coming in the next year or so.
mpoho2000 2 years ago
But this is an excellent time to buy a house if you have credit. With the continued inflation of the US dollar it is a very good time to buy. At the rate we're going, the US dollar will easily lose 50%+ of it's value if not more.
Locked in 30yr fixed mortgage for 500K (30% down) > buy university house > rent to students = rent pays for interest of mortgage every month. Devaluation of the dollar makes the price of the home an absolute bargain.
mpoho2000 2 years ago
@mpoho2000 Inflation like that will not increase real estate values. It will in fact crash values. Look at countries where hyper-inflation has hit in the past. With runaway inflation people will be unemployed, making less money and spending what they have on food and utilities. Leaving very little money for buying homes. Because the dollar loses it's value doesn't mean everyone gets a raise.
drudometkin 1 year ago
this is wrong - real estate is one of the very best inflation plays - much better than gold as many think.
jobe66 1 year ago
Remember what happened with the Sub-prime fallout. The dollar shot up tremendously. Why would the second wave be any different? Unless of course you believe that the world will be decoupled from the US economy at that point.
mongobobo 1 year ago 5
@mongobobo The dollar strengthening was irrational and because other countries needed some place to try and story wealth. The dollar is in decline, make no mistake about it. If you think the dollar is so great, then store all your wealth in dollars under your mattress. Then in 5-10 years see how much it buys.
jeremyraybrown 1 year ago
@SIGN666 No government forced bills that force banks to lend to people with bad credit is the problem. Government bills forced banks to give bad loans,thats the problem einstein. Sweden? you mean the welfare state who welcomes muslims at the expence of Sweedish nationals? educate yourself before you make such a ignorant statement.
js1112111 2 years ago
I think you need to define what you mean by Capitalism. I understand it as a system where Capital is privately held. The means of production (labor) are controlled by the Capitalists in the 'marketplace.' So I'm guessing no one on this youtube page is a Capitalist, but more likely a member of the 'laborforce.' To be a Capitalist means you don't work but rather you live off your Capital in the form of dividends and Capital gains. Americans often confuse Capitalism with Free Enterprise.
mongobobo 1 year ago 2
You know. I used to be Pro Capitalism all the way.
Now..I don't know what to think. These Banks did a tremendous amount of abuse to the USA. The government intervened and said "Everyone should own a house". Nobody is entitled to a house unless they can truly afford it. But the banks had that Capitalism Greedy spirit and now have destroyed America. Government intervention + Banks = Destroy Lives
Does Capitalism really work?
myg0tBUTTPLUG 2 years ago
Friend, what we have in America is not capitalism. What we have is fascism. When government and corrupt corporations get in bed together and take part in illegal in immoral behavior, that is fascism. If you want a solid idea about what is going on there is a youtube vid called "Freedom To Fascism" by the great Aaron Russo. Watch it when you have nothing to do.
Tasadaru 2 years ago 2
@myg0tBUTTPLUG I agree about the government getting involved in the banks is a bad Idea. This is not Capitalism. Actually in a true capitalist country the banks would not have been forced to make bad loans to help social welfare,nor would they have been bailed out. What you should be mad at is the Government using peoples greed to take any control from the people to start a new global criminal org. Socialist laws crippled this country.Look how far ahead of the world America was 20 years ago.
js1112111 2 years ago
Nobody can forcast what the market will look like five years from now. I
Chessnha 2 years ago
In December 2009 7.5 mllion are late on their payment on first loans (2.5 million sub-prime and 5 million related to job loss). In 2010 and 2011, 1.6 trilllion more loans will reset (sub-primes were 1 trillion) and 800 billion comercial loans are late. In 2009 I can see that January 2012 will be the next price low. It is the law of supply and demand, when foreclosures go up, prices must fall. In2009 low rates and few resets firmed prices but 2010 and 2011 home prices will fall.
MrAlanKendall 2 years ago
@MrAlanKendall That is what should happen,but the government will do as always and inflate a market and push it down the road further. Fannie is now renting 65000 homes to people who defaulted,that is interfering with a free market,ofcoarse the government wants house prices high,they get more tax income and the public is too dumb to understand it. Markets are still overpriced but that does not mean it will correct,when a market is manipulated markets can hold for a suprising amount of time.
js1112111 2 years ago
Absolutely, the Government is doing as much manipulation as it can to keep compercial and residential real estate proped up so it wont colapse. I still relate it to the early 1970's when the 1972 and 1975 stimulus packages kept properties from collapsing. The trick was to buy in 1976 when foreclosures dried up, then real estate quadrupled nationwide in only 5 years. Ten years from now we will see that 2012 through 2016 was a great time to buy.
MrAlanKendall 2 years ago
"The trick was to buy in 1976 when foreclosures dried up, then real estate quadrupled nationwide in only 5 years"
Everything at least quadrupled. Food, energy, precious metals. That wasn't real estate becoming more valuable, it was the dollar falling like a brick.
."Ten years from now we will see that 2012 through 2016 was a great time to buy."
Will we? I think precious metals will beat real estate by man, many times.
jjenson2006 1 year ago
@Chessnha many people can forcast the market,the government knew the crash was coming,they didn't say anything because it is what they want to push their pathetic agenda on the people. If we had no crisis people would never let these blind laws pass.....Many people inc