about half of the oil is used directly or indirectly for food production. agricultural machines, fertilizers (<-- contain HUGE amounts of energy, you can use them as chemical explosives), pesticides, ... oil shortage will cause food shortage, using food as a replacement for oil doesnt make sense. this way, more people will die so that some people can drive their cars around for a little bit longer. putting stuff in your car that people could put in their mouth is not very moral.
Biodiesel can be made from waste products like animal fat, human fat and algae. Algae is a completely renewable source that can be use to clean our air and make fuel. The problem with most of these solutions is not being able to switch over cheaply.
the key advantage of a hybrid is that when you need to slow down, a generator is used to decelerate and this energy is stored and used for accelleration later. every hybrid on the market can be used as an electric car, thats not the big advantage, electric cars that dont drive around an additional engine would be superior.
the hybrid still loses against bicycles, motorcycles, larger vehicles that can transport 100+ people, horses, and efficient electric cars.
maybe you underestimate the scale of the problem. there will be food shortages not only in poor developing countries, but on a global level. even nations like the united states will have trouble when it comes to providing enough food.
the cars we use today are too heavy, and as long as they are so heavy, we will not be able to sustain them. moving 1 ton of metal to move 1 person will NEVER be efficient.
will be solved by technology inventions not by the politicians. I wonder what the middle east might look like without the oil money, not a pretty sight.
advances are unlikely soon the people I speak with tell me that it is sooner than we think. For instance right now solar technology is woefully inadequate and far too costly to compete but they have recently created nanoflakes which are nanocrystals which absorb light 30% more effeciently than solar today. In a few years using nanotechnology there might be crystals far more effecient and solar tech would then be much better and cheaper than oil or anything else. So if anything the problem....
i guess by now even the good old solar panels with their 30% less efficiency are good enough to save money in the long run, if you put them on your roof right now ;)
i think we already have all the technology we would need, the problem is that its damn expensive to buy it and set it up. you can get a lot of energy out of the crap of farm animals using fermentation processes for example. if a farmer builds it now, he will save money every year and make profit in 5 years.
and unfortunately we don't have the political will to solve the problem. Both parties won't budge and we'll end up with nothing as usual. Though you should hope this is not the case because if the U.S. goes through rough times this will mean a worldwide economic depression. whether peak oil is now 5yrs or 20 yrs is irrelevant at some point very near the world is screwed unless new technologies are sufficiently advanced. On the bright side though even though people think that major .....
Your view is accurate if we do not have changes in use...but changes in use will happen. 50 to 60 mpg cars, use of motorcycles and scooters.
and LED lighting..that alone if we went to it 100% would cut oil and coal damand by 50% or so.. then natural gas can be used for auto and truck fuel.
In 8 or 10 years the US and the rest of the world should have enough nuclear to cut oil demand in half also.. together, oil demand will drop dramatically. short term we are big big trouble though.
LED lighting really makes sense, becase they turn almost 100% of the energy you put into it into light, they dont even get warm.
LED lighting and solar panels and rechargeable batteries are very interesting for third world countries, where people dont have access to electricity. a small solar panel, a hand full of rechargeables, thats all they now need to have light and use a radio and a clock or a cellular phone.
but we might be forced to do the same in the more advanced countries now...
This is true. Europe is far more prepared. You also have far more nuclear energy and are building more nuclear. The U.S. is ill prepared for any oil crisis. Those on the right have opposed mandates on businesses for years for fear it would hurt the economy and those on the left have opposed drilling for oil and increased coal for years as well as building new refineries since high energy prices would accelerate the emergance of new technologies into the market. The U.S. has neither...
when the housing market swings back up (and the dollar as well) my net worth will explode. So many people around the world are making a killing with this weak dollar. Bush tough is a disaster in terms of monetary policy and really without getting in to conspiracy theories why his administration has had a weak dollar policy is beyond me. I thinkthey were trying to weaken the chinese andsucceeded somewhat and that next pres. will have a strong dollar policy as the chicoms have depegged fromdollar
yerdyyyyy: what if you are wrong, and a major crisis in the united states is already inevitable?
what if peak oil is now? the united states are not really prepared for peak oil, it will crush their economy, while other nations have been preparing for this for decades. here in germany, we already have villages that get most energy from fermentation of biological waste, have some organic fuel, and solar panels. they are completely independent from outside energy, and produce & sell food.
world is currently taking advantage of the weak dollar to buy up things in the u.s. since they are incredibly devalued due to the weak dollar. This is especially true of real estate which is something that I'm doing
and right now I can buy up forclosed properties for ten cents on the dollar from banks who just want to get rid of their bad paper since the houses have become liabilities for them rather than investments I hire a managment companies to put in tennants and in a few years..continued
goes up which means the russians can charge you higher even though its not costing them anymore. this is too short for this sort of discussion so don't sweat it if you don't know what I'm saying i've been at this for over 17 years.Now the reason that the world won't abandon the dollar altogether although the russians are suggesting it is because the world holds alot of u.s. debt and has alot of holdings in the u.s. so to devalue the dollar further would hurt their investments. Actually the....
matter so much whether oil is pegged to the dollar although its a good first step. What matters is that much of the world buys trades and holds in dollars and much of the worlds oil is held in dollars so with the devaluation of the dollar comes higher world prices for this world commodity. so even if you get most of your oil from russia they are charging you higher prices because in most countries that buy/sell with dollar the price has gone up since dollar has fallen which means global price...
Oil is a world commodity so that it doesn't matter whether you buy it in dollars or euros. In most transactions oil is sold in dollars in many markets oil is sold/traded in dollars and it has a world price (146/barrel). so for example russia does not really set it's own price (though they can affect production) russia sells the barrel of oil for what the price is on the world market so for example if oil is 146dollaars per barrel russia sells it for the equivalent in euros. It doesn't..continued
you'll notice that the dollar was about equal to the euro. so now that the dollar is about half the euro oil is priced twice as much since the dollar is worth half what it was just a few yrs ago. Now why the u.s. has had a weak dollar policy for the last 4 yrs is debateable. The u.s. is also sitting on more oil than the mideast which we don't drill. I think Certain people want higher prices since this will lead to quicker implimentation of innovative technology, but peak oil is about 20 yrs away
about oil being pegged to the dollar... im not entirely sure about russia, but somehow i dont think that they sold their oil only for dollars. that just wouldnt make sense in the context of the cold war.
and one month ago, the arabs disconnected their oil from the dollar. so the link between arab oil and the dollar is history now. check the link in the description-box, and watch the video: watch?v=LxZ6mYBROcQ
and oil also got more expensive related to the euro.
Hey there. I'm in the oil biz and I can tell you that though peak oil is an inevitability we are not there right now. If you look at the supply-demand ratio it is only slightly less favorable than when oil was half the current price. The reason that oil is currently costly is about 10% speculators like me. but the real reason is actually the weakness of the u.s. dollar.You see oil is pegged to the dollar and so a few years ago when oil was half the price it is today...continued...
yerdyyyyy: actually, the fact that oil got significantly more expensive in the euro-area completely contradicts your statements.
okay, the dollar went down, the euro went up. now we get more dollars for less euro. the oil is linked to the dollar. why do we still get less oil per euro??? i mean, from our perspective, the following happened: bush fucked it up, he causes to dollar to more or less crash, and independent from this, oil got more expensive. and we get the oil from russia. for €uros.
maybe your intersted in the group 23, a group of german youtubers.
just have a look at my channel under "groups".
To your question: we are around peak oil right now. I'm not an expert so I can't say weather we're before or behind it. but I'm sure we're near to it.
We do need to drastically reduce our use of oil. What I've read is, high price isn't from reaching peak for the most part. They are actually pumping out more oil than is needed. The price is high for two main reasons. A declining American dollar which is the only currency that can be traded for oil. And speculation (i.e. Middle East conflicts). Some of oil price is a market bubble. Oil will come down when the American dollar raises in value. But it is a hourglass, we need renewable energy.
the growth of oil production has stopped. it went from 6-7% growth per year to zero growth. this is the main reason for the increased prices. they also have technical difficulties when it comes to refining the low-quality sour crude oil, but the sweet crudes are (almost) gone now.
the dollar has nothing to do with it, because america is just one nation and not the planet, and oil prices are also rising compared to the €uro and other currencies.
The dollar would have nothing to do with except it is the ONLY currency oil can be traded with. The lowering value of the dollar has made a mad dash to commodities to fight inflation driving gas prices higher on a market bubble. Now that is not the only reason. The fear of having hit peak is also a driving catalyst, but this problem is at least a ten headed dragon. But I'd ask you to follow U.S. dollar value with oil price. There certainly is a connection.
BrockTree: that the dollar is the only currency that can be used to buy the oil from some countries has been a fact for quite a while now. im not entirely sure, but i think russia never really sold for dollars only. the arab states were selling only in dollars.
but that has changed about 1 month ago, the arabs completely disconnected from the dollar. now they sell it for other currencies as well.
i got this from modernmystics video: watch?v=LxZ6mYBROcQ
Gas prices will continue to climb until people stop using it. Long term, we need more choices in energy... Short term, we need to capitalize on resources at home and regulate the price until a long term strategy can get implemented.
i guess by now its a bit too late for price regulation ;)
some countries started to put quite high taxes on fuel years or even decades ago, based on percentages of the price and not on quantity, today their prices are rising even faster. but the economy already adapted to higher fuel prices, and huge investments in alternative energy and energy efficiency have already been made. those countries now also have the option to decrease those taxes to make the changes even less painful.
opec stated last week that they want oil at $170 per barrel. with the growth in demand from china and india, oil could easily hit $200 per barrel. the canadian oil sands contain as much as 1/3 of the worlds oil. the problem is extracting the oil. corn based ethanol is the main driver behind higher food prices.
Alternative fuels can be achieved by growing certain crops and making fuel from those crops. The problem is as the price of fuel rises the temptation to use land to grow fuel producing crops has increased. This is reducing the available land for food production and pushed up food prices. Now driving a car in a wealthy western country is indirectly causing starvation in the third world. They should have called it peak food.
i wonder what will be more dangerous: peak oil itself, or problems that come from peak oil simply because people make the wrong decisions.
burning down even more rainforest because palm oil is so valuable right now is one stupid decision that might break our neck. buying food on the world market that people could eat just to turn it into fuel might be another one of those mistakes.
we need to understand that cars are not the future, maybe bicycles are.
Whether or not oil prices would ever go down or if we'll ever find more oil reserves we never knew of, or anything like that is totally irrelevant. The most crucial thing is that these fuel sources are terrible for the enviornment and will show real effects in the coming years on our planet. There should be fewer oil power planets and more solar, fission, wind, water. More electric/hydro cars. Lowering the demand of oil will lower the price, but safely so, since we won't need it so much anyways.
do the math......oil price rises from 20 to 140, that's a 7 times....
Are you (and L.Williams) saying that the Dollar dropped 7 times? Are you actually trying to sell that Bullshit? Do the fooken Math, and stop propagating the garbage!
Peak oil is a scam. The world is not running out of oil and can continue to produce hydrocarbons for the next 40 years provided restrictions are lifted on where companies can operate says the head of BP.
Oil may have peaked or not but there are actually still reserves for 38 years.
The short-term problem we are experiencing now is due to lack of investments in refining capacity and oil-wells due to low barrel prices of the last decade or so. For that reason production cannot follow consumption and we see prices of $130-$140/bbl. Prices may be expected to fall to more reasonable levels in the medium term. In case of a U.S recession they may fall more steeply in the short term.
if it is true that we already used more than 50% of all the oil that was originally there, then it is mathematically impossible that we have reserves that could last 38 years.
if we used exactly 50% of the oil today, and have exactly 50% left, and if oil consumption stays exactly the same, we will run out of oil as a mathematical fact in exactly 18 years ;) this is because we had exponential growth in oil consumption in the past.
There is a misconception on the interpretation of peak oil. It does not mean we used up 50% in the last few decades. It means additional discovered reserves can no longer compensate utilisation rate. Then we start talking of a plateau or a peak and existing reserves (the 1.2 trillion bbl of proven reserves) will start to shrink over a period of 38 years with current consumption but more likely less than that since consumption is going to rise a lot more.
yes, peak oil doesnt say that we used up 50% of the oil. i got that information elsewhere.
so lets assume that if consumption stays equal and doesnt rise anymore, we have reserves that last 38 years. this would mean that we have two times the amount of oil left that we burned in the history of civilisation. do we really have that much left?
im sure that peak oil is happening now, or will happen during the next 5 years, not later.
i dont think that we can get most of those reserves.
freeflow oil is almost gone now, some fields are being steam-drilled for decades now, and they are desperate enough to consider oil sands and oil shelf. maybe those reserves just exist on paper, maybe they included stuff that we cant even get yet or cannot ever get, but those reserves definitively arent freeflow light crude. time will tell if those statistics will hold any water ;) and my guess is that we dont need to wait long to find out.
Oil has not necessarily peaked. Oil that can be produced at current market prices has peaked. Production has been declining since 2005. Ethanol is taking up some of the slack, but that drives up food prices. Expensive oil can be gotten from oil sands, shale, etc..
There's a wealth of information on the Financial Sense News Hour web pages. Listen to it every weekend and learn all you need to know.
In the U.S., I think oil sands has peaked, they have been steaming since the 1960s. Yes, coal and shale can give us enough oil for our life time, but as things are none of the refineries are tooled for it. No one can produce oil from coal and shale on a mass scale. Unless, the U.S. gets serious about energy, it will take about 10 years to retool the refineries. When was the last time the U.S. built a new refinery? The ones we have now are outdated and falling a part. VLO is in real trouble.
your comment somehow contradicts my definition of peak oil. peak oil means: peak production of oil. you look at the amount of oil that was used every day/month/week, and then you make a graph, and the highest amount that you get for the given unit of time is the peak.
if peak oil is now, production will not increase anymore. if it isnt, then there will be a time in the future when more oil per unit of time is available.
There's still monstrous amounts of oil left. Hundreds of years worth.
How the hell would you know how much oil there is in reserves and future wells?
Here's the explanation. India and China are exploding in growth and their demand for fuel is rapidly increasing. Oil producing nations maximize their profit by not increasing supply. Increasing demand + level supply = rising prices.
It's not rocket science.
You still haven't even tried to defend AGW. It's been months.
They all have been cooking the books in order to attract new investors. To me oil peaks when you can no longer pump free flow oil and have to shoot steam into the well to free the oil from the sand. If they can get oil from shale and coal at a reasonable price, then oil would peak in the middle of the steaming phase. If not, then the steaming phase is the death bed of the oil field. Getting oil from coal & shale do have problems like, right now, no one can do for a good price.
According to BP's top oil man (on BBC) of last 30yrs, peak oil is now! And what's worrisome is the demand equation. It took 146 years for the world to use the first 1 trillion barrels. The next and last proven and easily recoverable, 1 trillion barrels will be gone by around 2030. After that, we could have as little as 1 trillion barrels of (harder to extract) conventional oil left.
"The US has 2% of the world's proven oil reserves. But it burns 25% of the world's transportation fuels,"
I am a creationist but I think it is terrible to suspend people who teach about Evolution or any other subject. However, this does not surprise me that Youtube suppresses Freedom of speech, because it is owned by Google and Google makes a common practice of curtailing Freedom of speech on a global basis. This, in my opinion is a crime against humanity. As far as oil prices, they will not go down.. people will use alternative forms of energy more and more. Which will be a good thing for Earth
Google/Youtube makes deals with oppressive governments to censor Youtube, Google and in return these governments will allow Youtube/Google to do business in these nations. This is why videos that offend Islam or the China Communists get banned and accounts disappear. Remember a few years back when Yahoo, Google, AOL, etc. agreed to help Communist China crack down on pro-human rights Chinese bloggers in exchange to do business there. What happened to these bloggers, only the state knows.
Exactly. When Google purchased youtube, it made me want to boycott it. I try to avoid using Google and use other search engines, but it is very pervasive. On another note, water is going to be the issue of the future, not oil. The richest man in the world, oil man Buffet is buying up water fields. We are desertifying the earth by cutting down all the trees and polluting the water with silt from runoff because of overbuilding. The human race will be forced into a simpler lifestyle.
Yesterday AUY, one of the world's largest gold mining companies bought GOLD to henge against future gold prices!!???!!!??? Why would a gold mine company take profits it made from selling gold to buy more gold when it should be getting "free" gold out of its goldmines? The only thing I can come up with is they aren't finding enough gold to meet promises they made to stockholder. Profitable gold must have peaked too. All our natural resourses will peak, if they haven't already.
I would suggest everyone here just google the terms "Peak Oil Myth" and "Fossil Fuel Myth". I'm not saying that what you will find is the absolute truth either. Just that there are many, many different theories to be explored before we buy into the hysteria.
Just a thought.. the book "The last Hours of Ancient Sunlight" is an interesting book regarding this subject. It but forth the theory that just as different factors ended slavery such as inventions of machinery such as the Cotton Gin and the Industrial Revolution etc, so will oil become less vital. I think (or hope) people will go back to a more natural way of living and have somewhat of a balance, and be less greedy.
I love how everyone watches the talking heads on the evening news, takes what they say as scientific FACT, and then considers themselves experts. This is true with this current debate as well as many others. Silly
No peak -- peak is 5-6 times higher. Electric cars and science will prolong the slow rise in prices. This is a wake up call -- I hope someone answers.
Some experts say the peak started in 2004. You're right that we shouldn't use oil for cars. We'll need it for food (and plastics). Oil touches every aspect of our lives.
im pretty sure we have already reached peak oil. not only it's getting more rare every day but the oil companies are taking advatage of this big craze to make even more profit. at this rate, in 20-30 years only the rich will be able to afford it. i look forward to the day when we can get rid of this addiction to it
If oil was a "fossil fuel" we'd all be swimming in it! The big oil corps know the truth but ain't talkin so long as they can continue to rake in record profits. they'll do this until they switch their infrastructure over to new energy and can profit off of that as well. by then, we'll all realize that oil always was renewable, but it won't matter. We'll remain at the mercy of the same corps and see new "crises" being created to manipulate our lives.
the evidence is in the oil itself: you can prove that it has a biological origin by analyzing the organic chemical compounds found in crude oil.
will you now change your mind, or will you now claim that there is a global conspiracy of science trying to trick people into believing that oil is a fossil fuel?
i would suggest that you try to get your facts right ;)
I happen to believe that "Peak Oil" is a myth. True, wells in regions that have been being pumped for many years are drying up. But, even in America, wells that have been capped for many years are now beginning to pressurize again. The fossil fuel assumption is outdated and completely wrong. Oil is a renewable natural resource but our general ignorance to this fact is breeding hysteria and artificially creating this "crisis" which happens to create huge profits.
you can prove it with any sample of crude oil by analyzing its chemistry. you will find too many compounds that are clearly organic and related to life in that crude oil, you need to be ignorant to believe that oil is not a fossil fuel, the evidence is overwhelming.
I agree with you that no significant and enduring drop of oil prices is waiting for us. This is the reason why we should support the ITER tokamak and similar projects with all we have.
I personally don't completely agree with your statement about energy in general. I suspect the prices for energy will go down as soon as the next paradigm shift concerning energy production happens. The alternative is stagnation of progress and maybe even extinction of humanity... we need more energy every day.
I think for the next 10 years we will have a major fuel problem. We are at the beginning, not the end, of something bad. One of the leaders from OPEC today said they expect oil to hit $170 in a few months. B. Pickins said it could hit $200 by Xmas. Many nations will fall into a depression. All the alterative fuels are at best 10 years away. Even oil from shale isn't something we can produce in the near future.
"... it could hit $200 by Xmas. Many nations will fall into a depression. All the alterative fuels are at best 10 years away. "
We've been talking about this for at least 30 years, nobody seems to pay attention. In the meantime we've structured our society around easy access to cheap oil. Commute 80 miles RT to an affordable bedroom community and have your salad shipped from South America...
ITER is really great, its sad that so few people in the public know about this, and they could accellerate it by improving funding for ITER and similar projects.
but even if you are very optimistic, it will take at least 25-30 years until we can do it. it will probarbly take even longer. the decades inbetween are the problem ;) i hope that we will get through this without getting into too much trouble, it is possible, but there are quite a lot of dangers.
I'll try to make a video this weekend about the subject, I've been planning on making a real video for some time now and your video has convinced me it's a good time to do it.
I was born on an oil lease, my dad worked in the oild fields, half my family still works in the oil fields, and I trade oil options.
Peak oil in the U.S. happened in the 1950s. There is little free oil, you have to steam drill the sand to get oil trapped there. They have been steam drilling since the 1960s. Soon the oil in the sand will be gone. The Middle East only has low grade sour crude. Even there they are having to steam drill now sice the late '90s. Their wells near being sucked dry.
peak oil is something the globalists in the oil industry cooked up so they can raise oil prices.
there is plenty of oil, and they had technology that will get 300 MPG 50 years ago.
It's all a scam so they can stay in power.. it's for the same reason that hemp is illegal, because it is a threat to the petrochemical companies.. oil byproducts are used to make rope, household cleaners, ect. hemp can be used for these same things, and is a renewable source.. the oil companies fight this.
I'm pretty sure cotton growers are a bigger force opposing hemp production. Hemp has much bigger, and much cleaner yields than cotton, and could be produced cheaper in a fair market.
cotton growers don't have the huge oil industry lobbyists behind them though.
Granted, there is interest in keeping hemp illegal from the cotton growers as well, but the market is saturated with products that come either directly or indirectly from the petrochemical industry. They just import cotton these days anyway; hence, there is much more vested interest in keeping hemp illegal from the oil companies than from the cotton farmers, i believe.
It's a possibility. I honestly haven't looked too much into the issue, but I imagine using fertilizer or rotating it alfalfa or clover to allow nitrogen levels to replenish could help remedy that problem. Plus they could use fertilizer.
Most crops deplete nutrients from the soil, but they find ways around it...
From what I see, they have not been hiding oil, but lying to their stockholders about how much oil they can get out of the ground. Read the major oil companies' earning reports. They are now telling the truth. There wasn't as much oil as they first thought, it's costing them more to drill for less oil, their oil wells are declining in production. The Integrated Oil companies like COP, EOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, etc. are really having a hard time even with oil pushing $140 a barrel.
but the reason oil is so high is because the dollar is being devalued, the federal reserve is printing more and more money out of thin air to fund big government, war, and also to lower our trade deficit to china. These factors are playing into the $140 a barrel price tag more than anything else.
kurtilein3: Peak Oil is the conspiracy, there are billions of barrels off the gulf coast, and there is more oil than in Alaska than in saudia arabia. anyway, I certainly hope that you are NOT calling dollar devaluation a conspiracy, because if you are, it is just indicative that you know nothing about economics or central banking. but hey, not everyone can know everything, you're good on religion, but leave politics to others. labeling stuff as conspiracy is akin to Christians crying devil.
its not that I am arguing against facts, u are just unknowingly supporting a lie. the globalists, the architects of the EU, & the central banks of the world have a vested interest in convincing the entire world that oil is almost gone. that way, they can jack up the prices and squeeze economies until they emerge in control. the peak oil myth benefits big oil as they charge more, and I sure hope you aren't saying that dollar devaluation is against the facts. numbers can be fudged & manipulated.
Both you and Kurt have valid points. On one hand Kurt would be right to say Speculation is driving prices higher. Peak oil is a speculation. There are no proven formulas for calculating exact oil amounts. Only supply and demand.
On the other hand oil can only be traded in U.S. dollars as agreed amongst OPEC. Anyone who understands market bubbles can see a devaluing Dollar is going to create higher commodity prices. Currently supply > demand. Meaning, currently this is a market bubble.
brocktree: again, that already has changed, now different currencies are accepted by the arabs, you dont need dollars to get oil anymore. but that happened just 1 month ago, so maybe its too early to see an effect.
speculation is just a different kind of demand, but i somehow believe that most of the demand is damn real, i mean, look at the food prices. speculation further increases the demand, but it doesnt look like a bubble. most of the demand is real, people need the oil to produce food.
I agree that it looks like we've reached peak oil, but I'm not so sure. Oil companies have consistently lied about their reserves, partly to avoid taxation. I.e. the North Sea reserves should have run out about 10 years ago, if we believe what they said when the fields were discovered. So, how do we really know what is left. Obviously, it would be a good thing to cut right back on our use, whatever the truth.
``I.e. the North Sea reserves should have run out about 10 years ago, if we believe what they said when the fields were discovered.´´
they will never run out of oil. but the amount of oil they get out of the ground will continue to decrease. it is possible that no nation that currently has oil will ever run out of it, maybe they will still produce one barrel per week in the year 4500. however, germany had peak oil in 1966, norway in 2000, united kingdom 1999.
Free flow oil peaked long ago. The U.S. run out of most of its free flow oil in the late 1950s and started steaming in the 1960s. Steam drilling to get the oil out of the sand is coming to an end in most places. The U.S. is rich in oil shale. Just the shale in WY can supply the U.S. for 50 years. But you have to stripe mine it and Congress is against it. The refineries and major oil companies are doing poorly. Small drillers are doing well if they can find oil.
"they will never run out...but the amount of oil they get out of the ground will continue to decrease" We've reached the point in many places where the energy to extract oil from the ground exceeds the amount of energy that can be derived from it. So technically there may still be oil, but the cost to get it may be greater than the benefit. Americans in particular will probably need to get used to the idea of nuclear power to continue the wasteful energy lifestyle they've grown accustomed to.
im not really sure, lots of uncertainty here, but i would guess with maybe lets say 70% certainty that we already are far beyond peak uranium. uranium is rare and expensive, and we are running out of it, sad but true. you cannot reprocess that forever, you can use the U235 directly and breed plutonium out of U238 and can use that to produce heat, but then you reach a dead end.
but the uranium that we already have and that we can get will undoubtedly help us; it is neutral when it comes to CO2.
We both know the bastards lie like hell, but we disagree what their lie was/is. I lived oil my entire life. I talk to oil people all the time, I worked in the oil patch for 12 years when I was young, now I invest in oil and read their reports. Most free flowing oil dried up long ago. Steaming the sand is coming to an end, oil from shale will cost an arm and a leg, but it will make enough oil to last us our life time. $16 a gallon for gas in the U.S. & $70 a gallon in Europe will come soon.
wyattkaltenberg: i think you know more about the topic than i do, but here you are stating something that is mathematically impossible. ``but it will make enough oil to last us our life time.´´ our demand for oil grows by 6-7% per year. this means that our demand doubles every 12 years.
this means: if the growth could continue, we would burn as much oil between 2008 and 2020 as we burned from 1500 until today / 2008. exponential growth is a bitch. peak oil is a fact, growth cannot continue.
Kurt, you are right about "real" oil. Most people think of "free flow oil" when they talk about oil. Seas of oil underground. Most of the U.S. oil seas were sucked dry in the 1950s. In the U.S. we still have free flow off shore and near the North Pole. Part 2: Mainland USA has oil sand. This is the sand at the bottom of the oil sea. It was rich in oil, they had to pump steam into sand to free the oil. This costs a lot. They have been steaming since the 1960s.
so we had this growth in history up until today. what if we now want to keep the oil supply stable, at zero growth? then we would need the amount of oil that we burned in the history of humankind up until today just to delay peak oil by 18 years, and replace it with plateau oil.
but statistics show that we already used more than 50% of all the oil on the planet. if we really already used more than 50%, then peak oil will happen quite soon, its a mathematical fact
Oil sand is drying up in the U.S. Our existing wells produce less each year.New oil is harder to find. Even new wells are just finding oil sand, not free flow. CA & Middle East has sour crude, which is low grade and costs a lot to refine. The Middle East,too, are starting to steam drill. 3rd we can refine oil from shale and coal. The U.S. has lots of coal and shale, but our refineries are not tooled to get oil out of coal and shale. From what I have read, they won't be tooled for 10 years.
I read in GQ about engines that can run on used vegetable oil (the first one came out around 1908). I don't see mass adoption but there's that.
The Chevy Volt is supposed to be an advanced version of a hybrid. Apparently the first 40 miles after each start/charge, no gas would be used.
Are hybrids and alternative fuels too little too late?
OTsuperduper 3 years ago
about half of the oil is used directly or indirectly for food production. agricultural machines, fertilizers (<-- contain HUGE amounts of energy, you can use them as chemical explosives), pesticides, ... oil shortage will cause food shortage, using food as a replacement for oil doesnt make sense. this way, more people will die so that some people can drive their cars around for a little bit longer. putting stuff in your car that people could put in their mouth is not very moral.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Biodiesel can be made from waste products like animal fat, human fat and algae. Algae is a completely renewable source that can be use to clean our air and make fuel. The problem with most of these solutions is not being able to switch over cheaply.
dataloreforever 3 years ago
the key advantage of a hybrid is that when you need to slow down, a generator is used to decelerate and this energy is stored and used for accelleration later. every hybrid on the market can be used as an electric car, thats not the big advantage, electric cars that dont drive around an additional engine would be superior.
the hybrid still loses against bicycles, motorcycles, larger vehicles that can transport 100+ people, horses, and efficient electric cars.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
third and last comment to OTsuperduper:
maybe you underestimate the scale of the problem. there will be food shortages not only in poor developing countries, but on a global level. even nations like the united states will have trouble when it comes to providing enough food.
the cars we use today are too heavy, and as long as they are so heavy, we will not be able to sustain them. moving 1 ton of metal to move 1 person will NEVER be efficient.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
will be solved by technology inventions not by the politicians. I wonder what the middle east might look like without the oil money, not a pretty sight.
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
advances are unlikely soon the people I speak with tell me that it is sooner than we think. For instance right now solar technology is woefully inadequate and far too costly to compete but they have recently created nanoflakes which are nanocrystals which absorb light 30% more effeciently than solar today. In a few years using nanotechnology there might be crystals far more effecient and solar tech would then be much better and cheaper than oil or anything else. So if anything the problem....
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
i guess by now even the good old solar panels with their 30% less efficiency are good enough to save money in the long run, if you put them on your roof right now ;)
i think we already have all the technology we would need, the problem is that its damn expensive to buy it and set it up. you can get a lot of energy out of the crap of farm animals using fermentation processes for example. if a farmer builds it now, he will save money every year and make profit in 5 years.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
and unfortunately we don't have the political will to solve the problem. Both parties won't budge and we'll end up with nothing as usual. Though you should hope this is not the case because if the U.S. goes through rough times this will mean a worldwide economic depression. whether peak oil is now 5yrs or 20 yrs is irrelevant at some point very near the world is screwed unless new technologies are sufficiently advanced. On the bright side though even though people think that major .....
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
Your view is accurate if we do not have changes in use...but changes in use will happen. 50 to 60 mpg cars, use of motorcycles and scooters.
and LED lighting..that alone if we went to it 100% would cut oil and coal damand by 50% or so.. then natural gas can be used for auto and truck fuel.
In 8 or 10 years the US and the rest of the world should have enough nuclear to cut oil demand in half also.. together, oil demand will drop dramatically. short term we are big big trouble though.
PScottrwp 3 years ago
LED lighting really makes sense, becase they turn almost 100% of the energy you put into it into light, they dont even get warm.
LED lighting and solar panels and rechargeable batteries are very interesting for third world countries, where people dont have access to electricity. a small solar panel, a hand full of rechargeables, thats all they now need to have light and use a radio and a clock or a cellular phone.
but we might be forced to do the same in the more advanced countries now...
kurtilein3 3 years ago
This is true. Europe is far more prepared. You also have far more nuclear energy and are building more nuclear. The U.S. is ill prepared for any oil crisis. Those on the right have opposed mandates on businesses for years for fear it would hurt the economy and those on the left have opposed drilling for oil and increased coal for years as well as building new refineries since high energy prices would accelerate the emergance of new technologies into the market. The U.S. has neither...
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
when the housing market swings back up (and the dollar as well) my net worth will explode. So many people around the world are making a killing with this weak dollar. Bush tough is a disaster in terms of monetary policy and really without getting in to conspiracy theories why his administration has had a weak dollar policy is beyond me. I thinkthey were trying to weaken the chinese andsucceeded somewhat and that next pres. will have a strong dollar policy as the chicoms have depegged fromdollar
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
yerdyyyyy: what if you are wrong, and a major crisis in the united states is already inevitable?
what if peak oil is now? the united states are not really prepared for peak oil, it will crush their economy, while other nations have been preparing for this for decades. here in germany, we already have villages that get most energy from fermentation of biological waste, have some organic fuel, and solar panels. they are completely independent from outside energy, and produce & sell food.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
world is currently taking advantage of the weak dollar to buy up things in the u.s. since they are incredibly devalued due to the weak dollar. This is especially true of real estate which is something that I'm doing
and right now I can buy up forclosed properties for ten cents on the dollar from banks who just want to get rid of their bad paper since the houses have become liabilities for them rather than investments I hire a managment companies to put in tennants and in a few years..continued
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
goes up which means the russians can charge you higher even though its not costing them anymore. this is too short for this sort of discussion so don't sweat it if you don't know what I'm saying i've been at this for over 17 years.Now the reason that the world won't abandon the dollar altogether although the russians are suggesting it is because the world holds alot of u.s. debt and has alot of holdings in the u.s. so to devalue the dollar further would hurt their investments. Actually the....
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
matter so much whether oil is pegged to the dollar although its a good first step. What matters is that much of the world buys trades and holds in dollars and much of the worlds oil is held in dollars so with the devaluation of the dollar comes higher world prices for this world commodity. so even if you get most of your oil from russia they are charging you higher prices because in most countries that buy/sell with dollar the price has gone up since dollar has fallen which means global price...
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
Oil is a world commodity so that it doesn't matter whether you buy it in dollars or euros. In most transactions oil is sold in dollars in many markets oil is sold/traded in dollars and it has a world price (146/barrel). so for example russia does not really set it's own price (though they can affect production) russia sells the barrel of oil for what the price is on the world market so for example if oil is 146dollaars per barrel russia sells it for the equivalent in euros. It doesn't..continued
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
peak oil is crap....go have a look at myspacesecrets videos man he rocks.
illuminatikey 3 years ago
you'll notice that the dollar was about equal to the euro. so now that the dollar is about half the euro oil is priced twice as much since the dollar is worth half what it was just a few yrs ago. Now why the u.s. has had a weak dollar policy for the last 4 yrs is debateable. The u.s. is also sitting on more oil than the mideast which we don't drill. I think Certain people want higher prices since this will lead to quicker implimentation of innovative technology, but peak oil is about 20 yrs away
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
yerdyyyyy:
about oil being pegged to the dollar... im not entirely sure about russia, but somehow i dont think that they sold their oil only for dollars. that just wouldnt make sense in the context of the cold war.
and one month ago, the arabs disconnected their oil from the dollar. so the link between arab oil and the dollar is history now. check the link in the description-box, and watch the video: watch?v=LxZ6mYBROcQ
and oil also got more expensive related to the euro.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Hey there. I'm in the oil biz and I can tell you that though peak oil is an inevitability we are not there right now. If you look at the supply-demand ratio it is only slightly less favorable than when oil was half the current price. The reason that oil is currently costly is about 10% speculators like me. but the real reason is actually the weakness of the u.s. dollar.You see oil is pegged to the dollar and so a few years ago when oil was half the price it is today...continued...
yerdyyyyy 3 years ago
yerdyyyyy: actually, the fact that oil got significantly more expensive in the euro-area completely contradicts your statements.
okay, the dollar went down, the euro went up. now we get more dollars for less euro. the oil is linked to the dollar. why do we still get less oil per euro??? i mean, from our perspective, the following happened: bush fucked it up, he causes to dollar to more or less crash, and independent from this, oil got more expensive. and we get the oil from russia. for €uros.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
I like your videos!
after your accent your german (like me)
maybe your intersted in the group 23, a group of german youtubers.
just have a look at my channel under "groups".
To your question: we are around peak oil right now. I'm not an expert so I can't say weather we're before or behind it. but I'm sure we're near to it.
tavin15 3 years ago
We do need to drastically reduce our use of oil. What I've read is, high price isn't from reaching peak for the most part. They are actually pumping out more oil than is needed. The price is high for two main reasons. A declining American dollar which is the only currency that can be traded for oil. And speculation (i.e. Middle East conflicts). Some of oil price is a market bubble. Oil will come down when the American dollar raises in value. But it is a hourglass, we need renewable energy.
BrockTee 3 years ago
well, actually the facts look a bit different.
the growth of oil production has stopped. it went from 6-7% growth per year to zero growth. this is the main reason for the increased prices. they also have technical difficulties when it comes to refining the low-quality sour crude oil, but the sweet crudes are (almost) gone now.
the dollar has nothing to do with it, because america is just one nation and not the planet, and oil prices are also rising compared to the €uro and other currencies.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
The dollar would have nothing to do with except it is the ONLY currency oil can be traded with. The lowering value of the dollar has made a mad dash to commodities to fight inflation driving gas prices higher on a market bubble. Now that is not the only reason. The fear of having hit peak is also a driving catalyst, but this problem is at least a ten headed dragon. But I'd ask you to follow U.S. dollar value with oil price. There certainly is a connection.
BrockTee 3 years ago
BrockTree: that the dollar is the only currency that can be used to buy the oil from some countries has been a fact for quite a while now. im not entirely sure, but i think russia never really sold for dollars only. the arab states were selling only in dollars.
but that has changed about 1 month ago, the arabs completely disconnected from the dollar. now they sell it for other currencies as well.
i got this from modernmystics video: watch?v=LxZ6mYBROcQ
watch it ;) he also links to an article
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Gas prices will continue to climb until people stop using it. Long term, we need more choices in energy... Short term, we need to capitalize on resources at home and regulate the price until a long term strategy can get implemented.
SciFientology 3 years ago
i guess by now its a bit too late for price regulation ;)
some countries started to put quite high taxes on fuel years or even decades ago, based on percentages of the price and not on quantity, today their prices are rising even faster. but the economy already adapted to higher fuel prices, and huge investments in alternative energy and energy efficiency have already been made. those countries now also have the option to decrease those taxes to make the changes even less painful.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
opec stated last week that they want oil at $170 per barrel. with the growth in demand from china and india, oil could easily hit $200 per barrel. the canadian oil sands contain as much as 1/3 of the worlds oil. the problem is extracting the oil. corn based ethanol is the main driver behind higher food prices.
magicdog200 3 years ago
Alternative fuels can be achieved by growing certain crops and making fuel from those crops. The problem is as the price of fuel rises the temptation to use land to grow fuel producing crops has increased. This is reducing the available land for food production and pushed up food prices. Now driving a car in a wealthy western country is indirectly causing starvation in the third world. They should have called it peak food.
samten54 3 years ago
yes, those are some real problems.
i wonder what will be more dangerous: peak oil itself, or problems that come from peak oil simply because people make the wrong decisions.
burning down even more rainforest because palm oil is so valuable right now is one stupid decision that might break our neck. buying food on the world market that people could eat just to turn it into fuel might be another one of those mistakes.
we need to understand that cars are not the future, maybe bicycles are.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Whether or not oil prices would ever go down or if we'll ever find more oil reserves we never knew of, or anything like that is totally irrelevant. The most crucial thing is that these fuel sources are terrible for the enviornment and will show real effects in the coming years on our planet. There should be fewer oil power planets and more solar, fission, wind, water. More electric/hydro cars. Lowering the demand of oil will lower the price, but safely so, since we won't need it so much anyways.
UltimatePuppy 3 years ago 2
Devalued dollar is a reason for higher oil prices, check out Lindsey Williams.
Efnarakir 3 years ago
do the math......oil price rises from 20 to 140, that's a 7 times....
Are you (and L.Williams) saying that the Dollar dropped 7 times? Are you actually trying to sell that Bullshit? Do the fooken Math, and stop propagating the garbage!
UnderseaCaveman 3 years ago
Peak oil is a scam. The world is not running out of oil and can continue to produce hydrocarbons for the next 40 years provided restrictions are lifted on where companies can operate says the head of BP.
eekdog2005 3 years ago
Oil may have peaked or not but there are actually still reserves for 38 years.
The short-term problem we are experiencing now is due to lack of investments in refining capacity and oil-wells due to low barrel prices of the last decade or so. For that reason production cannot follow consumption and we see prices of $130-$140/bbl. Prices may be expected to fall to more reasonable levels in the medium term. In case of a U.S recession they may fall more steeply in the short term.
isreasontaboo 3 years ago
isreasontaboo: reserves for 38 years?
if it is true that we already used more than 50% of all the oil that was originally there, then it is mathematically impossible that we have reserves that could last 38 years.
if we used exactly 50% of the oil today, and have exactly 50% left, and if oil consumption stays exactly the same, we will run out of oil as a mathematical fact in exactly 18 years ;) this is because we had exponential growth in oil consumption in the past.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
There is a misconception on the interpretation of peak oil. It does not mean we used up 50% in the last few decades. It means additional discovered reserves can no longer compensate utilisation rate. Then we start talking of a plateau or a peak and existing reserves (the 1.2 trillion bbl of proven reserves) will start to shrink over a period of 38 years with current consumption but more likely less than that since consumption is going to rise a lot more.
isreasontaboo 3 years ago
yes, peak oil doesnt say that we used up 50% of the oil. i got that information elsewhere.
so lets assume that if consumption stays equal and doesnt rise anymore, we have reserves that last 38 years. this would mean that we have two times the amount of oil left that we burned in the history of civilisation. do we really have that much left?
im sure that peak oil is happening now, or will happen during the next 5 years, not later.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
i dont think that we can get most of those reserves.
freeflow oil is almost gone now, some fields are being steam-drilled for decades now, and they are desperate enough to consider oil sands and oil shelf. maybe those reserves just exist on paper, maybe they included stuff that we cant even get yet or cannot ever get, but those reserves definitively arent freeflow light crude. time will tell if those statistics will hold any water ;) and my guess is that we dont need to wait long to find out.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
NANOTECHNOLOGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGy
kRAZYCanuck22 3 years ago
Oil has not necessarily peaked. Oil that can be produced at current market prices has peaked. Production has been declining since 2005. Ethanol is taking up some of the slack, but that drives up food prices. Expensive oil can be gotten from oil sands, shale, etc..
There's a wealth of information on the Financial Sense News Hour web pages. Listen to it every weekend and learn all you need to know.
JiveDadson 3 years ago
In the U.S., I think oil sands has peaked, they have been steaming since the 1960s. Yes, coal and shale can give us enough oil for our life time, but as things are none of the refineries are tooled for it. No one can produce oil from coal and shale on a mass scale. Unless, the U.S. gets serious about energy, it will take about 10 years to retool the refineries. When was the last time the U.S. built a new refinery? The ones we have now are outdated and falling a part. VLO is in real trouble.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
jivedadson:
your comment somehow contradicts my definition of peak oil. peak oil means: peak production of oil. you look at the amount of oil that was used every day/month/week, and then you make a graph, and the highest amount that you get for the given unit of time is the peak.
if peak oil is now, production will not increase anymore. if it isnt, then there will be a time in the future when more oil per unit of time is available.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
There's still monstrous amounts of oil left. Hundreds of years worth.
How the hell would you know how much oil there is in reserves and future wells?
Here's the explanation. India and China are exploding in growth and their demand for fuel is rapidly increasing. Oil producing nations maximize their profit by not increasing supply. Increasing demand + level supply = rising prices.
It's not rocket science.
You still haven't even tried to defend AGW. It's been months.
memblor 3 years ago
Youtube is FAIL anyways FUCK it!
yyyourmomm 3 years ago
They all have been cooking the books in order to attract new investors. To me oil peaks when you can no longer pump free flow oil and have to shoot steam into the well to free the oil from the sand. If they can get oil from shale and coal at a reasonable price, then oil would peak in the middle of the steaming phase. If not, then the steaming phase is the death bed of the oil field. Getting oil from coal & shale do have problems like, right now, no one can do for a good price.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
According to BP's top oil man (on BBC) of last 30yrs, peak oil is now! And what's worrisome is the demand equation. It took 146 years for the world to use the first 1 trillion barrels. The next and last proven and easily recoverable, 1 trillion barrels will be gone by around 2030. After that, we could have as little as 1 trillion barrels of (harder to extract) conventional oil left.
"The US has 2% of the world's proven oil reserves. But it burns 25% of the world's transportation fuels,"
danielnz1 3 years ago 2
I think everyone should watch this series of youtube videos in response to what you have said about oil.
watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=related
Tridhos 3 years ago
tridhos: yes, i agree, everyone should watch this: watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
actually im not sure if i already linked this earlier.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
I am a creationist but I think it is terrible to suspend people who teach about Evolution or any other subject. However, this does not surprise me that Youtube suppresses Freedom of speech, because it is owned by Google and Google makes a common practice of curtailing Freedom of speech on a global basis. This, in my opinion is a crime against humanity. As far as oil prices, they will not go down.. people will use alternative forms of energy more and more. Which will be a good thing for Earth
dejahthoris 3 years ago
Google/Youtube makes deals with oppressive governments to censor Youtube, Google and in return these governments will allow Youtube/Google to do business in these nations. This is why videos that offend Islam or the China Communists get banned and accounts disappear. Remember a few years back when Yahoo, Google, AOL, etc. agreed to help Communist China crack down on pro-human rights Chinese bloggers in exchange to do business there. What happened to these bloggers, only the state knows.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
Exactly. When Google purchased youtube, it made me want to boycott it. I try to avoid using Google and use other search engines, but it is very pervasive. On another note, water is going to be the issue of the future, not oil. The richest man in the world, oil man Buffet is buying up water fields. We are desertifying the earth by cutting down all the trees and polluting the water with silt from runoff because of overbuilding. The human race will be forced into a simpler lifestyle.
dejahthoris 3 years ago
Yesterday AUY, one of the world's largest gold mining companies bought GOLD to henge against future gold prices!!???!!!??? Why would a gold mine company take profits it made from selling gold to buy more gold when it should be getting "free" gold out of its goldmines? The only thing I can come up with is they aren't finding enough gold to meet promises they made to stockholder. Profitable gold must have peaked too. All our natural resourses will peak, if they haven't already.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
I would suggest everyone here just google the terms "Peak Oil Myth" and "Fossil Fuel Myth". I'm not saying that what you will find is the absolute truth either. Just that there are many, many different theories to be explored before we buy into the hysteria.
eluminated 3 years ago
Just a thought.. the book "The last Hours of Ancient Sunlight" is an interesting book regarding this subject. It but forth the theory that just as different factors ended slavery such as inventions of machinery such as the Cotton Gin and the Industrial Revolution etc, so will oil become less vital. I think (or hope) people will go back to a more natural way of living and have somewhat of a balance, and be less greedy.
dejahthoris 3 years ago
I love how everyone watches the talking heads on the evening news, takes what they say as scientific FACT, and then considers themselves experts. This is true with this current debate as well as many others. Silly
eluminated 3 years ago
Shows what you know! God's tears make whiskey! Everybody knows that.
eluminated 3 years ago
No peak -- peak is 5-6 times higher. Electric cars and science will prolong the slow rise in prices. This is a wake up call -- I hope someone answers.
NEWSTOGOD 3 years ago
Some experts say the peak started in 2004. You're right that we shouldn't use oil for cars. We'll need it for food (and plastics). Oil touches every aspect of our lives.
ManicEightBall 3 years ago
im pretty sure we have already reached peak oil. not only it's getting more rare every day but the oil companies are taking advatage of this big craze to make even more profit. at this rate, in 20-30 years only the rich will be able to afford it. i look forward to the day when we can get rid of this addiction to it
1337DementedOne 3 years ago
I cannot believe they removed Extantdodo's channel. That is INSANE!
thecreepingmess 3 years ago
If oil was a "fossil fuel" we'd all be swimming in it! The big oil corps know the truth but ain't talkin so long as they can continue to rake in record profits. they'll do this until they switch their infrastructure over to new energy and can profit off of that as well. by then, we'll all realize that oil always was renewable, but it won't matter. We'll remain at the mercy of the same corps and see new "crises" being created to manipulate our lives.
eluminated 3 years ago
What the hell are you ranting about?
slinfolo 3 years ago
oil is a fossil fuel, that is a fact.
the evidence is in the oil itself: you can prove that it has a biological origin by analyzing the organic chemical compounds found in crude oil.
will you now change your mind, or will you now claim that there is a global conspiracy of science trying to trick people into believing that oil is a fossil fuel?
i would suggest that you try to get your facts right ;)
kurtilein3 3 years ago
I happen to believe that "Peak Oil" is a myth. True, wells in regions that have been being pumped for many years are drying up. But, even in America, wells that have been capped for many years are now beginning to pressurize again. The fossil fuel assumption is outdated and completely wrong. Oil is a renewable natural resource but our general ignorance to this fact is breeding hysteria and artificially creating this "crisis" which happens to create huge profits.
eluminated 3 years ago
Please explain how/why you think oil is a renewable resource. Where is new oil being created?
imaginenoreligion 3 years ago
crude oil is a fossil fuel, that is a fact.
you can prove it with any sample of crude oil by analyzing its chemistry. you will find too many compounds that are clearly organic and related to life in that crude oil, you need to be ignorant to believe that oil is not a fossil fuel, the evidence is overwhelming.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
I realy hope you're wrong.
True, waisting oil would be unwise if not imoral in the face of global shortage.
DeletedDelusion 3 years ago
I agree with you that no significant and enduring drop of oil prices is waiting for us. This is the reason why we should support the ITER tokamak and similar projects with all we have.
I personally don't completely agree with your statement about energy in general. I suspect the prices for energy will go down as soon as the next paradigm shift concerning energy production happens. The alternative is stagnation of progress and maybe even extinction of humanity... we need more energy every day.
DerCrossi 3 years ago
I think for the next 10 years we will have a major fuel problem. We are at the beginning, not the end, of something bad. One of the leaders from OPEC today said they expect oil to hit $170 in a few months. B. Pickins said it could hit $200 by Xmas. Many nations will fall into a depression. All the alterative fuels are at best 10 years away. Even oil from shale isn't something we can produce in the near future.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
"... it could hit $200 by Xmas. Many nations will fall into a depression. All the alterative fuels are at best 10 years away. "
We've been talking about this for at least 30 years, nobody seems to pay attention. In the meantime we've structured our society around easy access to cheap oil. Commute 80 miles RT to an affordable bedroom community and have your salad shipped from South America...
methinxaweezil 3 years ago
ITER is really great, its sad that so few people in the public know about this, and they could accellerate it by improving funding for ITER and similar projects.
but even if you are very optimistic, it will take at least 25-30 years until we can do it. it will probarbly take even longer. the decades inbetween are the problem ;) i hope that we will get through this without getting into too much trouble, it is possible, but there are quite a lot of dangers.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
I'll try to make a video this weekend about the subject, I've been planning on making a real video for some time now and your video has convinced me it's a good time to do it.
studio7manga 3 years ago
I was born on an oil lease, my dad worked in the oild fields, half my family still works in the oil fields, and I trade oil options.
Peak oil in the U.S. happened in the 1950s. There is little free oil, you have to steam drill the sand to get oil trapped there. They have been steam drilling since the 1960s. Soon the oil in the sand will be gone. The Middle East only has low grade sour crude. Even there they are having to steam drill now sice the late '90s. Their wells near being sucked dry.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
Damnit! I loved Extantdodo!
pyromania152 3 years ago
peak oil is something the globalists in the oil industry cooked up so they can raise oil prices.
there is plenty of oil, and they had technology that will get 300 MPG 50 years ago.
It's all a scam so they can stay in power.. it's for the same reason that hemp is illegal, because it is a threat to the petrochemical companies.. oil byproducts are used to make rope, household cleaners, ect. hemp can be used for these same things, and is a renewable source.. the oil companies fight this.
protofear 3 years ago
I'm pretty sure cotton growers are a bigger force opposing hemp production. Hemp has much bigger, and much cleaner yields than cotton, and could be produced cheaper in a fair market.
pyromania152 3 years ago
cotton growers don't have the huge oil industry lobbyists behind them though.
Granted, there is interest in keeping hemp illegal from the cotton growers as well, but the market is saturated with products that come either directly or indirectly from the petrochemical industry. They just import cotton these days anyway; hence, there is much more vested interest in keeping hemp illegal from the oil companies than from the cotton farmers, i believe.
protofear 3 years ago
Question about hemp production, we all know cotton farming depletes the topsoil, is hemp similar in that regard?
dejahthoris 3 years ago
It's a possibility. I honestly haven't looked too much into the issue, but I imagine using fertilizer or rotating it alfalfa or clover to allow nitrogen levels to replenish could help remedy that problem. Plus they could use fertilizer.
Most crops deplete nutrients from the soil, but they find ways around it...
pyromania152 3 years ago
From what I see, they have not been hiding oil, but lying to their stockholders about how much oil they can get out of the ground. Read the major oil companies' earning reports. They are now telling the truth. There wasn't as much oil as they first thought, it's costing them more to drill for less oil, their oil wells are declining in production. The Integrated Oil companies like COP, EOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, etc. are really having a hard time even with oil pushing $140 a barrel.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
but the reason oil is so high is because the dollar is being devalued, the federal reserve is printing more and more money out of thin air to fund big government, war, and also to lower our trade deficit to china. These factors are playing into the $140 a barrel price tag more than anything else.
protofear 3 years ago
protofear: you are simply wrong here. crude oil is also getting more expensive relative to the euro.
the oil prices are clearly correlated and most likely caused by the CONTINUOUSLY DECREASING SUPPLIES.
you choose to ignore the HARD FACTS, just so that you can then believe in some ridiculous illogical nonsense involving some kind of conspiracy.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
kurtilein3: Peak Oil is the conspiracy, there are billions of barrels off the gulf coast, and there is more oil than in Alaska than in saudia arabia. anyway, I certainly hope that you are NOT calling dollar devaluation a conspiracy, because if you are, it is just indicative that you know nothing about economics or central banking. but hey, not everyone can know everything, you're good on religion, but leave politics to others. labeling stuff as conspiracy is akin to Christians crying devil.
protofear 3 years ago
protofear: you are arguing against facts, and against mathematical truth.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
its not that I am arguing against facts, u are just unknowingly supporting a lie. the globalists, the architects of the EU, & the central banks of the world have a vested interest in convincing the entire world that oil is almost gone. that way, they can jack up the prices and squeeze economies until they emerge in control. the peak oil myth benefits big oil as they charge more, and I sure hope you aren't saying that dollar devaluation is against the facts. numbers can be fudged & manipulated.
protofear 3 years ago
Both you and Kurt have valid points. On one hand Kurt would be right to say Speculation is driving prices higher. Peak oil is a speculation. There are no proven formulas for calculating exact oil amounts. Only supply and demand.
On the other hand oil can only be traded in U.S. dollars as agreed amongst OPEC. Anyone who understands market bubbles can see a devaluing Dollar is going to create higher commodity prices. Currently supply > demand. Meaning, currently this is a market bubble.
BrockTee 3 years ago
brocktree: again, that already has changed, now different currencies are accepted by the arabs, you dont need dollars to get oil anymore. but that happened just 1 month ago, so maybe its too early to see an effect.
speculation is just a different kind of demand, but i somehow believe that most of the demand is damn real, i mean, look at the food prices. speculation further increases the demand, but it doesnt look like a bubble. most of the demand is real, people need the oil to produce food.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
I agree that it looks like we've reached peak oil, but I'm not so sure. Oil companies have consistently lied about their reserves, partly to avoid taxation. I.e. the North Sea reserves should have run out about 10 years ago, if we believe what they said when the fields were discovered. So, how do we really know what is left. Obviously, it would be a good thing to cut right back on our use, whatever the truth.
oddballleft 3 years ago
``I.e. the North Sea reserves should have run out about 10 years ago, if we believe what they said when the fields were discovered.´´
they will never run out of oil. but the amount of oil they get out of the ground will continue to decrease. it is possible that no nation that currently has oil will ever run out of it, maybe they will still produce one barrel per week in the year 4500. however, germany had peak oil in 1966, norway in 2000, united kingdom 1999.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Free flow oil peaked long ago. The U.S. run out of most of its free flow oil in the late 1950s and started steaming in the 1960s. Steam drilling to get the oil out of the sand is coming to an end in most places. The U.S. is rich in oil shale. Just the shale in WY can supply the U.S. for 50 years. But you have to stripe mine it and Congress is against it. The refineries and major oil companies are doing poorly. Small drillers are doing well if they can find oil.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
"they will never run out...but the amount of oil they get out of the ground will continue to decrease" We've reached the point in many places where the energy to extract oil from the ground exceeds the amount of energy that can be derived from it. So technically there may still be oil, but the cost to get it may be greater than the benefit. Americans in particular will probably need to get used to the idea of nuclear power to continue the wasteful energy lifestyle they've grown accustomed to.
methinxaweezil 3 years ago
im not really sure, lots of uncertainty here, but i would guess with maybe lets say 70% certainty that we already are far beyond peak uranium. uranium is rare and expensive, and we are running out of it, sad but true. you cannot reprocess that forever, you can use the U235 directly and breed plutonium out of U238 and can use that to produce heat, but then you reach a dead end.
but the uranium that we already have and that we can get will undoubtedly help us; it is neutral when it comes to CO2.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
"we already are far beyond peak uranium"
Good point, not to mention it takes many years to get a nuclear plant online.
methinxaweezil 3 years ago
We both know the bastards lie like hell, but we disagree what their lie was/is. I lived oil my entire life. I talk to oil people all the time, I worked in the oil patch for 12 years when I was young, now I invest in oil and read their reports. Most free flowing oil dried up long ago. Steaming the sand is coming to an end, oil from shale will cost an arm and a leg, but it will make enough oil to last us our life time. $16 a gallon for gas in the U.S. & $70 a gallon in Europe will come soon.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
wyattkaltenberg: i think you know more about the topic than i do, but here you are stating something that is mathematically impossible. ``but it will make enough oil to last us our life time.´´ our demand for oil grows by 6-7% per year. this means that our demand doubles every 12 years.
this means: if the growth could continue, we would burn as much oil between 2008 and 2020 as we burned from 1500 until today / 2008. exponential growth is a bitch. peak oil is a fact, growth cannot continue.
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Kurt, you are right about "real" oil. Most people think of "free flow oil" when they talk about oil. Seas of oil underground. Most of the U.S. oil seas were sucked dry in the 1950s. In the U.S. we still have free flow off shore and near the North Pole. Part 2: Mainland USA has oil sand. This is the sand at the bottom of the oil sea. It was rich in oil, they had to pump steam into sand to free the oil. This costs a lot. They have been steaming since the 1960s.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago
continued to wyattkaldenberg:
so we had this growth in history up until today. what if we now want to keep the oil supply stable, at zero growth? then we would need the amount of oil that we burned in the history of humankind up until today just to delay peak oil by 18 years, and replace it with plateau oil.
but statistics show that we already used more than 50% of all the oil on the planet. if we really already used more than 50%, then peak oil will happen quite soon, its a mathematical fact
kurtilein3 3 years ago
Oil sand is drying up in the U.S. Our existing wells produce less each year.New oil is harder to find. Even new wells are just finding oil sand, not free flow. CA & Middle East has sour crude, which is low grade and costs a lot to refine. The Middle East,too, are starting to steam drill. 3rd we can refine oil from shale and coal. The U.S. has lots of coal and shale, but our refineries are not tooled to get oil out of coal and shale. From what I have read, they won't be tooled for 10 years.
WyattKaldenberg 3 years ago