Monty Hall Problem

[FargnbastageOFmisha]

Here's a simple and irrefutable test for all the doubters.

1) Put 5$ down pick door number 1 and switch.

2) Run it again and this time Put 5$ down and pick door #2 and switch.

3) Run it a third time and put $5 down and pick door #3 and switch. Guaranteed you will win $10 and lose $5. every time.

without switching the prize each time you run it, of your 3 initial choices you are a 2-1 favourite if you switch.

[mrKirosana]

Yeah way, you totally do.

Two doors, but one has a bigger chance of hiding the car than the other.

[giovea]

66.6% of 2 options is something like 1.33/2...

or can we be stupid enough the choose the goat?!

it's money in the bank , all the milk and chesse...

[MrYahMie]

You are an idiot, its a chance, not a certainty.

The theory means there is more of a chance.

If you pick a goat which is 66% likely, and you swap you get the car garanteed! If you pick the car originally which is 33% likely, you swap and get it wrong. You have more of a chance of picking the goat originally and therefore win the car. Its more likely, not a certainty.

[giovea]

the first guess godzkit, is not 1/3 at that the time the door is revealed...cause 3 became 2... honestly are you blind? what's the name of the movie??? how didi this stupid mistake reach hollywood- americans at their best... it must be a massive destruction bayes problem...hahaha

[ellimist10]

it's not narrowed down to 2 because your initial choice had a chance of 1/3 to win, and the other 2 had a combined chance of 2/3. By removing 1 possible choice the remaining door has a chance of 2/3. You only lose if you initially picked the right doors, but there is only a 1/3 chance of this (versus the 2/3 chance of losing)

[giovea]

How come you distribute the leverage you get from getting one door revealed just to one of the 2 remaining doors???

that's double counting.

any subsequent event becomes dependant of that revelation and now your universe must be narrow to 2, otherwise you can't distribute that extra equally in all cenarios.

plus if you pick the car he can show goat A (switch to B and loose) or goat B (switch to A and loose)...

please don't meke me go trou this arguemnet again..if your are not enlighten i quit

[jeremyemilio]

Try the same problem, but with 1000 doors. Pick a door. Now Monty Hall opens 998 doors, all goats. Leaving two doors, the one you picked when the odds were 1000 to one, and the one he didn't open. He offers you the chance to switch. But you don't, because it's a 50/50 chance? If you still don't get it, keep adding zeros until you come to your senses.

[Goldiney]

Exactly. The small number of choices, and therefore large probabilities, confuses the hell out of people.

[999BeefEater999]

For all you dum asses who don't understand this. Here....

1) The probability of picking the car first time is 1 in 3. The probability of picking a goat is 2 in 3 (Better Odds)

2) If you pick a goat then the host MUST open the other the goat (he does this in order to tempt you the change)

3) So when he opens the other goat is revealed, you know that the remaining door must be a car IF you pick a goat first.

4) Read point 1 again.

:D

[giovea]

how do you know you pick the goat first?

If you pick the car what happens?

...he can show you 2 ways to fuck yourself, with goat A and with goat B.

2 of switch to loose

2 of switch to win

2/4=??????????? 50/50?

[Goldiney]

No.

[godzkitchen81]

1/3= 0.3333

So here we have to events, either stay with the first guess, or switch. If you decide to switch your probability becomes 1-0.333=0.6666. Thats it.

[giovea]

you don't switch to the other 2 options or the complementar group! no way.

you inicial odds went up to 2 IN 3 , not 2/3 (0.66)

your probabilities (in fractions of one) are between those 2/3 of three doors. between 2 doors. one shot. 1n2 and also 0.5

[999BeefEater999]

For all you dum asses who don't understand this. Here....

1) The probability of picking the car first time is 1 in 3. The probability of picking a goat is 2 in 3 (Better Odds)

2) If you pick a goat then the host MUST open the other the goat (he does this in order to tempt you the change)

3) So when he opens the other goat is revealed, you know that the remaining door must be a car IF you pick a goat first.

4) Read point 1

[peterschreyfogl]

By the way - I like the angles and distortions in this clip.

[peterschreyfogl]

I found Kevin Spacey brilliant in this movie. He was some kind of an asshole there and then in it, but he played very good. The others I found good, but not so good. The movie as a whole is absolutely worth seeing, very good film.

[ejtphonehomee]

ooh thank you for posting this! when i was watching this movie this scene/problem was bugging me the whole time then i came home and watched this other vid that helped me figure out the problem.... but i was glad to see this too!

thanks!!