it's a fifty fifty that problem is nonsense it doesn't matter what the odds were before it's another problem with new probability it's like sayin your coin is more likely to hit tails because of past events
To really understand this, pretend you're doing it with a deck of cards: your mission: pick the Ace of Hearts. You pick one card, then the omniscient dealer reveals 50 cards that are not the Ace of Hearts. He then offers you the opportunity to switch. Do you still think it's 50/50?
As made clear by Marilyn Vos Savant, the columnist who popularized the "The Monty Hall Dilemma" - it is ESSENTIAL that the game show host KNOWS which card conceals the valuable prize, and that he consciously chooses to reveal a goat card. If the host just randomly happens to reveal a goat behind a card, the contestant will gain no advantage by switching away from her original choice. The Numbers tech advisors got it wrong again by failing to make this aspect of the Monty Hall dilemma explicit.
As made clear by Marilyn Vos Savant, the columnist who popularized the "The Monty Hall Dilemma" - it is ESSENTIAL that the game show host KNOWS which card conceals the valuable prize, and that he consciously chooses to reveal a goat card. If the host just randomly happens to reveal a goat behind a card, the contestant will gain no advantage by switching away from her original choice. The "Numbers" tech advisors got it wrong again by failing to make this aspect of the Monty Hall dilemma explicit.
@Selahrs1 what difference does it make if it is a conscious choice on the host's part though? (sry if the answer is obvious but maths has never been my forte)
@baisuh simple it was more likely to pick a goat in the first choice then after he showed the goat it makes it more likely to get a car because now its much less likely to get a goat
@DarkKnightBob1o1 How did they fuck up? It's not 50% chance, it's 66% if you switch. And no, the rule isn't that the host shows you only 1 door the rule is that you are left with only 1 door that hasn't been revealed, despite how many other doors were available to choose from and were already revealed. Whether there be 3 total doors or a million, it's the same thing. 3 doors just makes for a more simpler and puzzling number.
@timorbit he said explicitly said your chances are more likely that the card your originally chose was a goat. And yes you can pontificate a lot over the meaning etc but that's the POINT. He's a bullshit teacher if he doesn't explain anything properly.
@DarkKnightBob1o1 The chances ARE more likely that the card you originally chose was a goat. There's a 2/3 chance. How is that wrong? You're not explaining how he screwed up, you just keep repeating that he did without saying how.
@DarkKnightBob1o1 Obviously it's a TV show but that doesn't mean anything and everything contained in it is false or wrong. And yes, Charlies math moments are typically to accelerate and help the plot, but again, doesn't mean it's just wrong information. You're awful at trolling.
If you still don't understand it, try using 1 million doors instead of 3, with there still being only 1 car and the rest are goats. You have a 1 in a million chance of picking the car, so obviously you're more likely to pick the goat. Then the game show host does the exact same thing which is open all the doors with goats except for leaving 1. Then asks if you want to switch. Do you really think you picked the 1 in a million door? Likely not, so the host had to leave the car door as the last one
@timorbit that's a different set of conditions for the test. The rules here are that he only shows you one card.
For this specific example it all depends on the intial conditionsand the hosts motives Again the problem's solution is based on the conditions of the test NOT just the odds of the outcome.
I really really love Numb3ers, but i think he didn't explain the problem fully. He should have said immediately that the gameshowhost exactly KNOWS where the 2 goats are. So the gameshowhost MUST pick a goat out of the 2 remaining boxes. So if you picked a goat at the beginning (chance 2/3), the host has to eliminate the only other goat. If you switch then u got a 100% chance of getting it. Making it a total chance of 2/3 * 1/1 = 66%
So basically to win the game, you need to select a goat in your first pick, that way when the host opens the other door with the goat, you can switch to win the car. And the chances of you picking a goat in your first pick is 2/3 hence its better to switch.
Well, I wonder what if the goats would BAAAA...it would Double you chance of winning because you klnow where the goat was...or it may be a recording...LOL
Behind the other 2 are goatse. You don't want that.
In both this and 21 they neglect the most important piece of information: the fact that host has to reveal a goat. That's important because if you pick the car on the first time then the host has 2 doors to choose from and you lose from switching, BUT if you pick one of the goats then the host shows you the other goat and switching gives you the car. So picking a goat the first time always wins, which means you have a 2/3 chance of winning.
@weedipikia That's the clearest explanation of this I've ever heard. If you picked a goat and switch, you win. But if you pick a car and switch you lose. So, picking and switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning, since you likely picked a goat. Best explanation I've heard ever, and I've seen this explained about 5 different ways. Very good!
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Maths is the RED HOT DEMONIAC SUBJECT FROM HELL ON EARTH THAT DOES NOTHING BUT EXPOSES EVERY 1'S MENTAL DEFORMITY OR BLUNTNESS TO SHUFFLE UR MIND IN NUMERICAL STUFF ! GOOD GOD HER INSTINCT WAS RIGHT THAT GAME IS A MATTER OF SHEER UNCERTAIN LUCK SHE SAID 50:50% CHANCES WHICH IS ALL BASED ON CASUAL LUCK AS SIMPLE AS THAT END OF STORY !!:D
this is well explained. personally i didn't get it, but my stats teacher said this is a really good explanation. i get it now after asking my teacher.
You guys are all idiots if you went to fucking wikipedia. It is all user submitted, and you should always triple check your sources to account for false information and falty websites
Actually it's quite a good explanation. The only thing he doesn't mention is the fact that its actually the quizmaster that is raising the odds by pointing a goat out. But perhaps that just makes it more confusing :).
Actually I KNOW this is right, because I came across this many times during my 6 years of math studies at university.
The idea is mainly used for scientific entertainment and math promotion. For instance in introduction classes at university or in popular sience books.
I smiled when I saw this cause I had just read about in a book..where the main character who is really a math genius describes this, so I thought it was quite funny.
This is wrong. I looked it up on wikipedia, its a problem from Marilyn vos Savant.
She says very clearly that the problem only works if the guy intentionally reveils one of the goats, in this problem he implies that he just reveiled one of the remaining cards at random and it just happened to be a goat.
If he had just reveiled one of the cards at random and it just happed to be a goat, then the odds that she had initially picked the correct card change to 1 in 2 with this new information.
No, what if the girl picks card one. Then the guy reveils that card 2 isn't the goat, then he reveils that card 3 isn't the goat either. Is the chance of number 1 being the goat still only one in three if it is the only card left? Obviously not.
For the problem, there is 1 car and 2 goats, and the guy only reveils 1 card. In your second sentence, you are saying that the guy reveals 2 of the cards and they're both cars? Sorry if I am misunderstanding you.
I'm an idiot... you clearly mean "is a goat" both times, and I see what you're getting at now... Yeah you're right, my second sentence of my original post was a load of nonsense.
I still think that it does not matter whether the card was chosen randomly and happened to be a goat... but I'm not in a good enough mindset to try and explain it right now.
if there was 100 cards n a car was hidden behind one card and the 99 goats hiden behind the rest then the chances are 1/100 of getting the car. But if the host then reveals 98 of the cards as goats leaving ur choice and the other card. giving the choice to switch, ur chances go from 1/100 getting the car first time to 99/100 if u switch. same thing here with just less cards
The problem was not explained in 21 at all. They just mentioned 'conditional probability' or some variation thereof and left it at that. It's worryingly simple really.
could someone point me at a mathematical explanation of how they get to the conclusion that switching gives better odds of winning than staying put? The rough explanation makes some sense to me, and this particular problem was also talked about in the movie 21.
There's 2 strategies, switching and not switching.
Not switching -
You have a 1/3 chance of ending up with the car, 2/3 chance of getting the goat.
Switching -
If you choose a car, the host reveals a goat, and you switch to the goat.
If you choose a goat, the host reveals the last goat, and you switch to the car.
You have 1/3 chance of originally choosing a car, and 2/3 chance of originally choosing a goat. Therefore, by switching everytime you have a 2/3 chance of ending up with the car.
Ahh...... 2/3 times i'll have picked a goat (2 of the 3 options are goats so it's more likely), therefore 2/3 of the time i get shown the other goat so effectively both goats have been picked and switching improves the odds of winning most of the time.
Assuming it was 2/3 goats, you have a 66% chance of picking a goat if you were to choose from 3 cards.
WIth that in mind, if the host reveals one goat and leaves you with the chance to switch, statistically speaking, you were more likely to pick a goat from the beginning, so holding this original assumption, it's likely that you still have a goat now, thus, it is better to switch. Of course, this isn't 100% thus, sometimes you may be wrong, but in practice, switching will give you the win.
oh yea absolutly...........and you might even get it like 5/5 times but eventually.......doing the same thing say 9000 times........you'll only get it right roughly 6000 times......not dead on but close......(6000/9000=6/9=2/3)
You say she still has a 66% chance of having picked a goat, even after one of the goats had been reveiled. But this isn't true, once one of the goats has been eliminated, the odds have changed. Now the chances that she had innitially picked the correct card becomes one in two.
Take a dice roll for example, I have a one in six chance of rolling a 1. If you now tell me that the roll was not a 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, are you telling me the chance of me having a 1 is still one in six?
Try to understand this way: Suppose you are in a game show. There are 100 cards you can choose, one of them has a prize of 1 million dollars. You choose one of them. The host keeps on intentionally removing the cards, KNOWING THAT THEY AREN'T THE PRIZED ONES. Then it comes down to 2 cards. Yours and one random. It isn't 1/2. You chose one of 100. He KNOWS what cards he is taking away. So the odds dont change. It is like he didnt take any away. It doesnt make any difference.
unlike you, im not retarded and i know a hollywood movie didn't create a math theory. and the 21 movie was based on the book in 2003 so they stole it from the book which is the movie
dear God...ok first, this is famously called the Monty Hall problem after the game show Let's Make a Deal in the 1970s (not 2006), and the problem existed well before that. the problem was also famously "solved" incorrectly by Marilyn vos Savant in the early 90s. the problem is fairly easily solved by Bayes Law in probability, which essentially deals with probabilities given light of new knowledge.
now everyone just shush already. if you're not going to shut it, at least say something useful.
sorry, all i see are uninteresting variations of "shut the fuck up," "you're a fucking retard," and "epic fail." and i'm not wasting my time trying to find your nugget of knowledge, i've seen nothing in the half dozen or so of your most recent posts.
don't get defensive because someone calls you out and when you may be wrong. grow up.
you just think just because you watch Numb3rs and talk about math, you're a genius. but you're actually a looser who haven't got a job and stays home watching stupid T.V shows.
ooo strike one, you get another chance! actually i've never seen a full episode of Numb3rs. you can try and: (1) guess which top 30 university i attend, (2) which top 5 semiconductor company i intern at, (3) which master's program in electrical engineering i got into [this is easy though, it's the same as #1]. care to take another shot at my "looser jobless life"?
honestly, i'm just passing time while i wait for tests to run...
ok so you're saying you went to MIT and now you're working for NASSA and you still have time to make a youtube account and come here every hour to argue with me about something stupid
not quite...i'm just an intern, and even then the nature of my work is such that once the test is setup i just let it run, which means i'll have a little downtime here and there.
i just hate to see people fighting like children on a website, maybe because i used to do the same thing and look back with scorn.
Ah, understanding the principles of statistics and probabilities are key to being a great mathematician. That's why mathematicians are great card players.
at first u choose one card. ods are to get 2 wrong out of 3 so it is most probabli to get goat . then a goat is revealed . and since the chosen card was probabli a goat its more likely that the price is in the other card!!!!!wooooooooo!!
tbh , if u are ever on a gameshow , i wouldnt switch , this is true BUT , because quite a few of people know this , they always switch but now , since eveyone knows , if the host reveals a 'goat' its only cuz he knows u know , and he knew u picked the car first , so he is trynig to get u to switch
There was a game show in the 80s or was it the 70s but you could win a car or a goat of course there is where this con comes from it's easy to figure which one to chose the host knows where the car is but won't reveal it have you chosen the car he doesn't reveal a goat it's simple i've done this with my brother and it's funny that people would rather keep their first choice than switching hehe.
I am the Architect. I created this Problem. I've been waiting for you. You have many questions, and although the process has altered your consciousness, you remain irrevocably human. Ergo, some of my answers you will understand, and some of them you will not. Concordantly, while your first question may be the most pertinent, you may or may not realize it is also the most irrelevant.
As I was saying, you stumbled upon a solution whereby nearly ninety-nine percent of the people accept the problem provided they were given a choice - even if they were only aware of it at a near-unconscious level. While this solution worked, it was fundamentally flawed, creating the otherwise contradictory systemic anomaly, that, if left unchecked, might threaten the math itself. Ergo, those who refused the solution, while a minority, would constitute an escalating probability of disaster.
A: There are two doors. The door to your right leads to the Car. The door to your left leads to the Goat. As you adequately put, the problem is choice. But we already know what you are going to do, don't we? Already I can see the chain reaction: the chemical precursors that signal the onset of an emotion, designed specifically to overwhelm logic and reason. An emotion that is already blinding you to the simple and obvious truth: There is no car. Just a goat.
I'll try to explain this using doors instead of cards.
There are two things you need to know to understand why this makes sense.
1) The host KNOWS which one has the car.
2) The host will open ALL of the doors except the one you picked and the one with the car behind it. (In the event you picked the one with the car, he will leave a door closed at random.) (Note that with only 3 doors, the host will always open only 1 door, which is where it probably throws people off.)
It only becomes confusing because there are only three doors. Think of them as sets. You pick door 1 (a set with one item) as it has as just as likely a chance as any other.
Given the option to switch over to the set of doors 2 AND 3, (if either has the car, you win) then you of course select that set.
When he opens one of the doors, your odds of having initially picked the right door is still 1 in 3. (How could it change to 1/2?)
Try imagining doing this millions of times. You always pick and open door 1 and one of the other two that doesn't have a car is reveled. You'll see that you only win 1/3 of the time, not half of the time.
To better explain it, imagine 100 doors. You pick door 1. Door 1 has a 1% chance. The host, (following the rules above) opens all of the doors except yours and door 47 (for example). Your odds for staying with door 1 remain 1%, while switching increases it to 99%, since there was a 99% chance that it was behind one of the other 99 doors to begin with. The fact that he shows you doors that don't have cars behind them doesn't change the odds, which is all you are working with really anyway.
The show makes it seem a little like you could pick the winning card, but it's really an explanation of probability. With only 3 doors, it's easy to NOT see how your odds aren't changing, and are really staying at 1/3 for your initial pick and 2/3 for choosing the other option (set of remaining doors).
Your odds are only 50/50 if you think of it in sets. 50% of the time the car will be behind set one (door 1) and 50% of the time it will be behind set 2 (doors 2 or 3)
This video doesn't explain it too well because it misses explaining that the host will show *a* card that *doesn't* have a car.
You pick card 1, your odds are 1 in 3. He shows that one of the other two don't have a car. (you already knew that).
If instead he said you could switch from your pick of card 1 to *both* cards 2 and 3, and if one has the car you win, then you would switch. The fact that the host revels that one deosn't have it changes nothing.
It relies on just probability only, not actually getting it right. If it were 100 choices, you would rather pick 99 of the choices rather than just 1 as your odds would be 99% of getting it right.
In this case your being allow to go from 1 choice to 2 choices. (You already know that one of the two will not have a car behind it, so seeing that fact doesn't change the odds any)
1. you choose '1'. P=1/3 1.1 Host reveals one of '0's 1.2 You change to second '0' 1.3 You lose
2. You choose '0', P=2/3 2.1 Host reveals ONLY '0' left 2.2 You change to '1' 2.3 You win.
I think that showing this to the public the way he put it is offending the Mathematics, just not precise, that's why I don't come near any TV or radio.
Explanation: host reveals always non-prize card, so by changing the choice we can double our chances, to be precise: always when you choose non-prize at the first choice you would win after switching choice, and contrary in 2nd option (so it's 2 times better than not switching and having 1/3 rate of winning).
I was informed that this is"Monty Hall" "paradox". Wikipedia says that the host HAS the knowledge of where the prize is, and he ALWAYS reveals the non-prize after the first choice, what isn't stated in the clip. While watching I assumed (according to what he says) he was revealing random card (he was guessing). So taking this fact into consideration, he was right stating the probability rates, although not saying all the facts is still a fraud to me. And it's no mathematical paradox of course.
srry david aka charlie but i would b failing this class 4 sure. but hey on da brightside Charlie aka David krumholtz wanna help me study for my math test?
Actually the host isn't tempting you to change. This is purely mathematically. But even if it weren't, the host wouldn't want you to change as that only helps you win.
This is hard to follow if for no other reason, your English is terrible.
Think about it this way. Let's say there's a million cards, 1 is a car, 999,999 are goats. You pick a card, and then 999,998 cards are revealed to be goats, leaving the card you selected, and a card you have a chance to switch to. Does this mean that the card you have has a 50/50 chance of being a car? No, because at the start, you had a 1 in a million chance of getting the car, so the card you initially picked has a 1 in a million chance, while the one you can switch to a 999,999 in 1,000,000
#1 is not stated in the problem, so it's not true. just because he did this time, doesn't mean that's the rule unless he states that's the rule, which he didn't. draw out every possibility on a spreadsheet on a spreadsheet if you don't think this matters, and you'll see why it does.
If he had stated that was the rule, then the rest of your logic follows correctly.
Yes it is really true, thinking of the goats as goat 1 and goat 2 might help. When the card on the right is revealed there are still 3 possible scenarios left. They all have a chance of 1/3
Scenario 1: You picked goat 1, the one on the right is goat 2 and left is the car
Scenario 2: You picked goat 2, the one on the right is goat 1 and again left is the car
No, that's untrue, since either scenario 1, or scenario 2 is eliminated when one of the cards reveals to be goat. That still leaves you with two choices (you may not know the number of the goat, but it doesn't matter, either you can't pick goat nr. 1, or goat nr 2. it still leaves you with goat X and a car - 50/50)
Charlie: "Vroom vroom"
YukiSakurazuka 2 months ago
it's a fifty fifty that problem is nonsense it doesn't matter what the odds were before it's another problem with new probability it's like sayin your coin is more likely to hit tails because of past events
Song4Alex 2 months ago
@Song4Alex its the monty hall problem look it up he is right
bstjames1611 3 weeks ago
oh the Monty Hall Problem ... so many memories ... statistics and psychology
lilithdeswan 2 months ago
Guys retarded.
Nooreazy 4 months ago
Choose Goat 1, Goat 2 is revealed, switch and you get a car.
Choose Goat 2, Goat 1 is revealed, switch and you get a car.
Choose Car, Goat 1 or 2 is revealed, switch and you get other goat.
You win 2 out of 3 times if you switch.
777Skeptic 6 months ago 6
that sounds like an informal explanation, trying to explain to people outside of the math world...
dullcoffee 7 months ago
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dullcoffee 7 months ago
That character shouldn't be playing a mathematical genius. Especially not a shitty one.
A7XTWE 7 months ago
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JonahVera 8 months ago
It's funny how on 0:54 she looks at her friend for confirmation.
KristijanTV 9 months ago
17 people won a goat.
behnamasid 11 months ago 13
To really understand this, pretend you're doing it with a deck of cards: your mission: pick the Ace of Hearts. You pick one card, then the omniscient dealer reveals 50 cards that are not the Ace of Hearts. He then offers you the opportunity to switch. Do you still think it's 50/50?
WBensburg 11 months ago 3
@WBensburg Yeah,good point.
KylleyFab4Fan 10 months ago
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As made clear by Marilyn Vos Savant, the columnist who popularized the "The Monty Hall Dilemma" - it is ESSENTIAL that the game show host KNOWS which card conceals the valuable prize, and that he consciously chooses to reveal a goat card. If the host just randomly happens to reveal a goat behind a card, the contestant will gain no advantage by switching away from her original choice. The Numbers tech advisors got it wrong again by failing to make this aspect of the Monty Hall dilemma explicit.
Selahrs1 11 months ago
As made clear by Marilyn Vos Savant, the columnist who popularized the "The Monty Hall Dilemma" - it is ESSENTIAL that the game show host KNOWS which card conceals the valuable prize, and that he consciously chooses to reveal a goat card. If the host just randomly happens to reveal a goat behind a card, the contestant will gain no advantage by switching away from her original choice. The "Numbers" tech advisors got it wrong again by failing to make this aspect of the Monty Hall dilemma explicit.
Selahrs1 11 months ago
@Selahrs1 what difference does it make if it is a conscious choice on the host's part though? (sry if the answer is obvious but maths has never been my forte)
carpeinfinitum 7 months ago
I want Charlie to explain how do magnets work to mormons !
ivanxdxd2008 11 months ago
this thing works only if you pick the goat first, if not you loose.
26octobre93 1 year ago
the point is:
the odds change because the host has to pick a goat to show.
ryan180294 1 year ago
@thomasproparr, then why change the choice ?? If i stick to my previous option, then too the odds are same(as a goat is now revealed)
pbhushanbsb 1 year ago
Brum brum ;P
SweetEmmeline17 1 year ago
honestly, when he explained it... still didn't get why the odds were better
baisuh 1 year ago 5
@baisuh simple it was more likely to pick a goat in the first choice then after he showed the goat it makes it more likely to get a car because now its much less likely to get a goat
thomasprowparr 1 year ago
@baisuh look up 'monty hall theorem' .. its where it began.. and a good youtube clip explains it
randomking333 1 year ago
ugh for the sake of the record they leave out the assumption that the host knows where the car is and will ALWAYS pick the goats over the car.
But I guess it doesn't become quite as intriuging that way.
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
The puzzle is based on the motives of the quiz show host.
Anywayz this is bullshit. This is intuition not instinct.
The odds are still 50/50 because the middle option holds that it could be either a car or a goat.
They fucked up the explanation of this problem.
As my instincts told me they would :P
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
@DarkKnightBob1o1 How did they fuck up? It's not 50% chance, it's 66% if you switch. And no, the rule isn't that the host shows you only 1 door the rule is that you are left with only 1 door that hasn't been revealed, despite how many other doors were available to choose from and were already revealed. Whether there be 3 total doors or a million, it's the same thing. 3 doors just makes for a more simpler and puzzling number.
timorbit 1 year ago
@timorbit because they didn't explain it properly.
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
@timorbit he said explicitly said your chances are more likely that the card your originally chose was a goat. And yes you can pontificate a lot over the meaning etc but that's the POINT. He's a bullshit teacher if he doesn't explain anything properly.
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
@DarkKnightBob1o1 The chances ARE more likely that the card you originally chose was a goat. There's a 2/3 chance. How is that wrong? You're not explaining how he screwed up, you just keep repeating that he did without saying how.
timorbit 1 year ago
I'm not faulting the problem itself.
Just that don't forget this is a tv show not an educational one.
They're not there to teach you maths. It's a plot device.
I guess we've been a lot commenting on this video.
GROUP HUG!!!
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
@DarkKnightBob1o1 Obviously it's a TV show but that doesn't mean anything and everything contained in it is false or wrong. And yes, Charlies math moments are typically to accelerate and help the plot, but again, doesn't mean it's just wrong information. You're awful at trolling.
timorbit 1 year ago
that's because i'm not trolling.
Trolling. is "you fucking suck balls you fag fucking cocksucker maths sucks"
See the difference?
opinion and attention seeking faggotry are vastly different. And I don't do the latter.
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
If you still don't understand it, try using 1 million doors instead of 3, with there still being only 1 car and the rest are goats. You have a 1 in a million chance of picking the car, so obviously you're more likely to pick the goat. Then the game show host does the exact same thing which is open all the doors with goats except for leaving 1. Then asks if you want to switch. Do you really think you picked the 1 in a million door? Likely not, so the host had to leave the car door as the last one
timorbit 1 year ago
@timorbit that's a different set of conditions for the test. The rules here are that he only shows you one card.
For this specific example it all depends on the intial conditionsand the hosts motives Again the problem's solution is based on the conditions of the test NOT just the odds of the outcome.
They fucked this problem up.
DarkKnightBob1o1 1 year ago
There's a 2/3 chance of picking a goat. In other words, it is likely a goat will be selected. That's why you should switch after a goat is revealed.
Bladen12345 1 year ago
I really really love Numb3ers, but i think he didn't explain the problem fully. He should have said immediately that the gameshowhost exactly KNOWS where the 2 goats are. So the gameshowhost MUST pick a goat out of the 2 remaining boxes. So if you picked a goat at the beginning (chance 2/3), the host has to eliminate the only other goat. If you switch then u got a 100% chance of getting it. Making it a total chance of 2/3 * 1/1 = 66%
Milchi7 1 year ago 2
in which season and episode is this scene?
masterjosch 1 year ago
So basically to win the game, you need to select a goat in your first pick, that way when the host opens the other door with the goat, you can switch to win the car. And the chances of you picking a goat in your first pick is 2/3 hence its better to switch.
007DefCon3 1 year ago
lool i rember this from 21
icesnoop 1 year ago
ahhh finally, this is the first explanation of the monty hall problem i actually understand!!!!
TheDarkAngel27 1 year ago
Maths is everything
HolyGK 1 year ago
Well, I wonder what if the goats would BAAAA...it would Double you chance of winning because you klnow where the goat was...or it may be a recording...LOL
Kaine852 1 year ago
mmmmmmm.... goat curry. I'll take the goat -- at least I won't have to pay fucking tax on it.
hjones1 1 year ago
Behind the other 2 are goatse. You don't want that.
In both this and 21 they neglect the most important piece of information: the fact that host has to reveal a goat. That's important because if you pick the car on the first time then the host has 2 doors to choose from and you lose from switching, BUT if you pick one of the goats then the host shows you the other goat and switching gives you the car. So picking a goat the first time always wins, which means you have a 2/3 chance of winning.
weedipikia 1 year ago 34
@weedipikia That's the clearest explanation of this I've ever heard. If you picked a goat and switch, you win. But if you pick a car and switch you lose. So, picking and switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning, since you likely picked a goat. Best explanation I've heard ever, and I've seen this explained about 5 different ways. Very good!
neoaeonian 1 year ago
@weedipikia the host did reveal a goat...
thespicycabbage 1 year ago
@weedipikia 33 people are mathematician!!!! the 33 who liked this problem.....
ScienceTimeWithMrC 1 week ago
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weedipikia 1 year ago
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Maths is the RED HOT DEMONIAC SUBJECT FROM HELL ON EARTH THAT DOES NOTHING BUT EXPOSES EVERY 1'S MENTAL DEFORMITY OR BLUNTNESS TO SHUFFLE UR MIND IN NUMERICAL STUFF ! GOOD GOD HER INSTINCT WAS RIGHT THAT GAME IS A MATTER OF SHEER UNCERTAIN LUCK SHE SAID 50:50% CHANCES WHICH IS ALL BASED ON CASUAL LUCK AS SIMPLE AS THAT END OF STORY !!:D
quat56 1 year ago
i'm guessing that you suck at math..... too bad its a great subject and is used in everything. Yes everything.
eli2187 1 year ago
@quat56
um...
luck is math... just sayin...
emblemstudio 1 year ago
"vrumm vrumm" Oh, lovely Charlie~<3
TheBleachSister 1 year ago
this is well explained. personally i didn't get it, but my stats teacher said this is a really good explanation. i get it now after asking my teacher.
thespicycabbage 1 year ago
You guys are all idiots if you went to fucking wikipedia. It is all user submitted, and you should always triple check your sources to account for false information and falty websites
hartley613 1 year ago
Haha! One guy is asleep... great detail!
JustAnotherX 1 year ago
Actually it's quite a good explanation. The only thing he doesn't mention is the fact that its actually the quizmaster that is raising the odds by pointing a goat out. But perhaps that just makes it more confusing :).
Actually I KNOW this is right, because I came across this many times during my 6 years of math studies at university.
The idea is mainly used for scientific entertainment and math promotion. For instance in introduction classes at university or in popular sience books.
SanderBessels 1 year ago
Comment removed
henkhenkdevries 1 year ago
I smiled when I saw this cause I had just read about in a book..where the main character who is really a math genius describes this, so I thought it was quite funny.
standup001 1 year ago
This is right, I don't know how silly all of y'all are, but this is the famous "3-doors-problem"
woutakasinistra 2 years ago 2
Thats the worst explanation of Monthy Hall I have ever witnessed !
quantumdude 2 years ago
That's trippy
QuincysRcool 2 years ago
This is wrong. I looked it up on wikipedia
Stupidest thing ive seen all day.
jamesneale 2 years ago
'This is wrong. I looked it up on wikipedia.'
Sorry but thats the supidest thing i've HEARD all day.
Also a tiny blip in the writing - not mentioning that he intentionally reveals a goat - hardly ruins the point of the scene.
vernonzhou 2 years ago
@vernonzhou Are you suggesting there are stupider things you had seen or read that day?
macafeek215 1 year ago
This is wrong. I looked it up on wikipedia, its a problem from Marilyn vos Savant.
She says very clearly that the problem only works if the guy intentionally reveils one of the goats, in this problem he implies that he just reveiled one of the remaining cards at random and it just happened to be a goat.
If he had just reveiled one of the cards at random and it just happed to be a goat, then the odds that she had initially picked the correct card change to 1 in 2 with this new information.
jacobins3000 2 years ago
Even with reveiling one of the cards at random, if it turns out to be a goat then you are more likely to win with a switch.
The odds that she had initially picked the correct card will always be 1 in 3, no matter what happens after that initial choice.
zantiertasa 2 years ago
No, what if the girl picks card one. Then the guy reveils that card 2 isn't the goat, then he reveils that card 3 isn't the goat either. Is the chance of number 1 being the goat still only one in three if it is the only card left? Obviously not.
jacobins3000 2 years ago
For the problem, there is 1 car and 2 goats, and the guy only reveils 1 card. In your second sentence, you are saying that the guy reveals 2 of the cards and they're both cars? Sorry if I am misunderstanding you.
zantiertasa 2 years ago
I'm an idiot... you clearly mean "is a goat" both times, and I see what you're getting at now... Yeah you're right, my second sentence of my original post was a load of nonsense.
I still think that it does not matter whether the card was chosen randomly and happened to be a goat... but I'm not in a good enough mindset to try and explain it right now.
zantiertasa 2 years ago
98i hate my compuer. ojkt os fucked up, especoially the iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii button! GRAAAAAAAA
angrywritergrrl 2 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
what episode is this from?
scrkd66 2 years ago
He's right
MyNAMEwasERASED 2 years ago 6
@MyNAMEwasERASEDBut would it not make sense to switch again using the same reasoning he uses to initially switch?
Because of this question it is an unsolved problem in bayesian decision theory. This problem is also known as the "envolope paradox".
So actually he is not completely right.
rosenberg011 1 year ago
if there was 100 cards n a car was hidden behind one card and the 99 goats hiden behind the rest then the chances are 1/100 of getting the car. But if the host then reveals 98 of the cards as goats leaving ur choice and the other card. giving the choice to switch, ur chances go from 1/100 getting the car first time to 99/100 if u switch. same thing here with just less cards
fuckyeah2009 2 years ago
that would be an interesting game show lol.
Disneychic1 2 years ago
i still dont really get it! gahhh!i hate math but if i had a teacher like that maybe i would still be in public school...
kittyrose25 2 years ago
The problem was not explained in 21 at all. They just mentioned 'conditional probability' or some variation thereof and left it at that. It's worryingly simple really.
gossieuk 2 years ago
i didn't get it
13579zcbm 2 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
they took this game show thing from the movie 21.
xxxpianoperson 2 years ago
21 came two years after this
SG1Mitchell 2 years ago 33
could someone point me at a mathematical explanation of how they get to the conclusion that switching gives better odds of winning than staying put? The rough explanation makes some sense to me, and this particular problem was also talked about in the movie 21.
jazzencat 2 years ago
There's 2 strategies, switching and not switching.
Not switching -
You have a 1/3 chance of ending up with the car, 2/3 chance of getting the goat.
Switching -
If you choose a car, the host reveals a goat, and you switch to the goat.
If you choose a goat, the host reveals the last goat, and you switch to the car.
You have 1/3 chance of originally choosing a car, and 2/3 chance of originally choosing a goat. Therefore, by switching everytime you have a 2/3 chance of ending up with the car.
FelixJZhou 2 years ago 3
Ahh...... 2/3 times i'll have picked a goat (2 of the 3 options are goats so it's more likely), therefore 2/3 of the time i get shown the other goat so effectively both goats have been picked and switching improves the odds of winning most of the time.
jazzencat 2 years ago
is the monty hall problem is an stadistic and probability problem you can fnd it in any math book :)
nata3211 2 years ago
Assuming it was 2/3 goats, you have a 66% chance of picking a goat if you were to choose from 3 cards.
WIth that in mind, if the host reveals one goat and leaves you with the chance to switch, statistically speaking, you were more likely to pick a goat from the beginning, so holding this original assumption, it's likely that you still have a goat now, thus, it is better to switch. Of course, this isn't 100% thus, sometimes you may be wrong, but in practice, switching will give you the win.
IRONSTOVE 2 years ago
nope its not 100% of the time its 67% of the time haha
83Oil88ers89 2 years ago
but it is the better odds no?
jediforcecny 2 years ago
oh yea absolutly...........and you might even get it like 5/5 times but eventually.......doing the same thing say 9000 times........you'll only get it right roughly 6000 times......not dead on but close......(6000/9000=6/9=2/3)
83Oil88ers89 2 years ago
I think we all agree here...where is the debate?
jediforcecny 2 years ago
r u really a stove?
angrywritergrrl 2 years ago
I dont get it.
You say she still has a 66% chance of having picked a goat, even after one of the goats had been reveiled. But this isn't true, once one of the goats has been eliminated, the odds have changed. Now the chances that she had innitially picked the correct card becomes one in two.
Take a dice roll for example, I have a one in six chance of rolling a 1. If you now tell me that the roll was not a 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, are you telling me the chance of me having a 1 is still one in six?
jacobins3000 2 years ago
@jacobins3000
Try to understand this way: Suppose you are in a game show. There are 100 cards you can choose, one of them has a prize of 1 million dollars. You choose one of them. The host keeps on intentionally removing the cards, KNOWING THAT THEY AREN'T THE PRIZED ONES. Then it comes down to 2 cards. Yours and one random. It isn't 1/2. You chose one of 100. He KNOWS what cards he is taking away. So the odds dont change. It is like he didnt take any away. It doesnt make any difference.
Fakezord 2 years ago
Monty Hall Problem - old trick :) Always love how even the most smartest of people get this one wrong.
rahdisas 2 years ago
i love monty python!!
daspoooop 2 years ago
What season? what episode?
alpal4000 2 years ago
Season 1, last episode
CJS7070 2 years ago
they stole that from the 21 movie
soroosh2008 2 years ago
Err this problem has been around before 21 or this. Its been an ongoing controversy, but its obviously the switch.
TheNightFox94 2 years ago 2
No this came first
WeEatBrainz 2 years ago
no 21 happened first
soroosh2008 2 years ago
No 21 came second... 21 came out in 2008 and this came out in 2006 omg research before u fail
WeEatBrainz 2 years ago
obviously you're retard so it's not even worth talking to you so fuck off
soroosh2008 2 years ago
HAAHAHAHAA
u say that 21 movie came first
then i proved u were wrong by 2 years then u get mad then yell at me to fuck off.
Priceless
WeEatBrainz 2 years ago
Comment removed
soroosh2008 2 years ago
Haha epic fail
WeEatBrainz 2 years ago
ok you never fucking "proved" me wrong. so fuck you. the movie 21 was based on a book the was published in 2003. so fuck you
soroosh2008 2 years ago
And this theory has been around since the early 80s so this didnt "stole that from the 21 movie"
First of all u claim they stole it from the "movie" which they couldnt have"...
Second... this theory wasnt created from 21,therefore it was not stolen by them
Epic fail
WeEatBrainz 2 years ago
unlike you, im not retarded and i know a hollywood movie didn't create a math theory. and the 21 movie was based on the book in 2003 so they stole it from the book which is the movie
Epic fail
soroosh2008 2 years ago
Haha you lose
stop saying retarded that is the insult that rejects use..
If u say they stole it from 21 i could also say 21 stole it from other stuff
WeEatBrainz 2 years ago
Epic fail RETARDDDDD
soroosh2008 2 years ago
Comment removed
soroosh2008 2 years ago
dear God...ok first, this is famously called the Monty Hall problem after the game show Let's Make a Deal in the 1970s (not 2006), and the problem existed well before that. the problem was also famously "solved" incorrectly by Marilyn vos Savant in the early 90s. the problem is fairly easily solved by Bayes Law in probability, which essentially deals with probabilities given light of new knowledge.
now everyone just shush already. if you're not going to shut it, at least say something useful.
twentyflights 2 years ago
maybe you should fucking read what i typed and than write a fucking essay for me
soroosh2008 2 years ago
sorry, all i see are uninteresting variations of "shut the fuck up," "you're a fucking retard," and "epic fail." and i'm not wasting my time trying to find your nugget of knowledge, i've seen nothing in the half dozen or so of your most recent posts.
don't get defensive because someone calls you out and when you may be wrong. grow up.
twentyflights 2 years ago
you just think just because you watch Numb3rs and talk about math, you're a genius. but you're actually a looser who haven't got a job and stays home watching stupid T.V shows.
soroosh2008 2 years ago
ooo strike one, you get another chance! actually i've never seen a full episode of Numb3rs. you can try and: (1) guess which top 30 university i attend, (2) which top 5 semiconductor company i intern at, (3) which master's program in electrical engineering i got into [this is easy though, it's the same as #1]. care to take another shot at my "looser jobless life"?
honestly, i'm just passing time while i wait for tests to run...
twentyflights 2 years ago
ok so you're saying you went to MIT and now you're working for NASSA and you still have time to make a youtube account and come here every hour to argue with me about something stupid
soroosh2008 2 years ago
not quite...i'm just an intern, and even then the nature of my work is such that once the test is setup i just let it run, which means i'll have a little downtime here and there.
i just hate to see people fighting like children on a website, maybe because i used to do the same thing and look back with scorn.
twentyflights 2 years ago
well you're a pathetic quehderamop
see, i can make up words by myself f too
soroosh2008 2 years ago
Ah, understanding the principles of statistics and probabilities are key to being a great mathematician. That's why mathematicians are great card players.
Kettenring 2 years ago
Likewise, knowing this fact and/ as result switching the cards makes it 50/50 again. You don't know unless you know what the placer knows.
freetothinkify 2 years ago
vroom vroom :P
dizzybrowngirl 2 years ago
at first u choose one card. ods are to get 2 wrong out of 3 so it is most probabli to get goat . then a goat is revealed . and since the chosen card was probabli a goat its more likely that the price is in the other card!!!!!wooooooooo!!
eddygonzalez1 2 years ago
dammit i forgot again!!
eddygonzalez1 2 years ago 2
now i get it
eddygonzalez1 2 years ago 3
I remember that episode :)
Kaalifornia 2 years ago 2
Ok, that was actually pretty cool.
Paineverlasting 2 years ago 2
tbh , if u are ever on a gameshow , i wouldnt switch , this is true BUT , because quite a few of people know this , they always switch but now , since eveyone knows , if the host reveals a 'goat' its only cuz he knows u know , and he knew u picked the car first , so he is trynig to get u to switch
kyruuiz 2 years ago
idiot
godsson87 2 years ago
Monty Hall Paradox... Damn how many movies should have this! It gets lame....
bitchslapper12 2 years ago 3
There was a game show in the 80s or was it the 70s but you could win a car or a goat of course there is where this con comes from it's easy to figure which one to chose the host knows where the car is but won't reveal it have you chosen the car he doesn't reveal a goat it's simple i've done this with my brother and it's funny that people would rather keep their first choice than switching hehe.
livedandletdie 2 years ago
Ha I remember this from stats class.
Too bad this show is awful. :)
tanton1 2 years ago
same thing in "21"
DonEddy89 2 years ago 2
I think it's funny there's a bunch of people conversing about this :)
MajestikMoose14 2 years ago
this is like in "21"
stonecreekstoner 2 years ago
Goat makes a fine meal. Also goat milk makes whiskers grow and the balls hang low. Its a scientific fact.
willberb 2 years ago
what?? lol
rcarrillo7 2 years ago
The Matrix explanation:
I am the Architect. I created this Problem. I've been waiting for you. You have many questions, and although the process has altered your consciousness, you remain irrevocably human. Ergo, some of my answers you will understand, and some of them you will not. Concordantly, while your first question may be the most pertinent, you may or may not realize it is also the most irrelevant.
Neo: Where is the car?
A: Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
igykalen 2 years ago
As I was saying, you stumbled upon a solution whereby nearly ninety-nine percent of the people accept the problem provided they were given a choice - even if they were only aware of it at a near-unconscious level. While this solution worked, it was fundamentally flawed, creating the otherwise contradictory systemic anomaly, that, if left unchecked, might threaten the math itself. Ergo, those who refused the solution, while a minority, would constitute an escalating probability of disaster.
igykalen 2 years ago
Neo: Is this still about the car?
A: There are two doors. The door to your right leads to the Car. The door to your left leads to the Goat. As you adequately put, the problem is choice. But we already know what you are going to do, don't we? Already I can see the chain reaction: the chemical precursors that signal the onset of an emotion, designed specifically to overwhelm logic and reason. An emotion that is already blinding you to the simple and obvious truth: There is no car. Just a goat.
igykalen 2 years ago
I'll try to explain this using doors instead of cards.
There are two things you need to know to understand why this makes sense.
1) The host KNOWS which one has the car.
2) The host will open ALL of the doors except the one you picked and the one with the car behind it. (In the event you picked the one with the car, he will leave a door closed at random.) (Note that with only 3 doors, the host will always open only 1 door, which is where it probably throws people off.)
Lithium102 2 years ago
It only becomes confusing because there are only three doors. Think of them as sets. You pick door 1 (a set with one item) as it has as just as likely a chance as any other.
Given the option to switch over to the set of doors 2 AND 3, (if either has the car, you win) then you of course select that set.
When he opens one of the doors, your odds of having initially picked the right door is still 1 in 3. (How could it change to 1/2?)
Lithium102 2 years ago
Try imagining doing this millions of times. You always pick and open door 1 and one of the other two that doesn't have a car is reveled. You'll see that you only win 1/3 of the time, not half of the time.
Lithium102 2 years ago
To better explain it, imagine 100 doors. You pick door 1. Door 1 has a 1% chance. The host, (following the rules above) opens all of the doors except yours and door 47 (for example). Your odds for staying with door 1 remain 1%, while switching increases it to 99%, since there was a 99% chance that it was behind one of the other 99 doors to begin with. The fact that he shows you doors that don't have cars behind them doesn't change the odds, which is all you are working with really anyway.
Lithium102 2 years ago
The show makes it seem a little like you could pick the winning card, but it's really an explanation of probability. With only 3 doors, it's easy to NOT see how your odds aren't changing, and are really staying at 1/3 for your initial pick and 2/3 for choosing the other option (set of remaining doors).
Lithium102 2 years ago
Your odds are only 50/50 if you think of it in sets. 50% of the time the car will be behind set one (door 1) and 50% of the time it will be behind set 2 (doors 2 or 3)
Lithium102 2 years ago
This video doesn't explain it too well because it misses explaining that the host will show *a* card that *doesn't* have a car.
You pick card 1, your odds are 1 in 3. He shows that one of the other two don't have a car. (you already knew that).
If instead he said you could switch from your pick of card 1 to *both* cards 2 and 3, and if one has the car you win, then you would switch. The fact that the host revels that one deosn't have it changes nothing.
igykalen 2 years ago
Your odds remain 2/3's by switching.
igykalen 2 years ago
Doesn't it rely entirely on whether or not you pick the right card at first?
xXYewTewbXx 2 years ago
Maybe you should watch it again?
Nizmon 2 years ago
It relies on just probability only, not actually getting it right. If it were 100 choices, you would rather pick 99 of the choices rather than just 1 as your odds would be 99% of getting it right.
In this case your being allow to go from 1 choice to 2 choices. (You already know that one of the two will not have a car behind it, so seeing that fact doesn't change the odds any)
igykalen 2 years ago
great
crislangpo 2 years ago
Comment removed
duncreg 3 years ago
Comment removed
duncreg 3 years ago
lol. I love Charlie!!!!!!!
stargatelvr11 3 years ago
finally
0pa1 3 years ago
nice
DreamAboutSpace 3 years ago
Precise explanation:
'1'=prize, '0'=non-prize, P=probability
1. you choose '1'. P=1/3 1.1 Host reveals one of '0's 1.2 You change to second '0' 1.3 You lose
2. You choose '0', P=2/3 2.1 Host reveals ONLY '0' left 2.2 You change to '1' 2.3 You win.
I think that showing this to the public the way he put it is offending the Mathematics, just not precise, that's why I don't come near any TV or radio.
vonskee 3 years ago
Explanation: host reveals always non-prize card, so by changing the choice we can double our chances, to be precise: always when you choose non-prize at the first choice you would win after switching choice, and contrary in 2nd option (so it's 2 times better than not switching and having 1/3 rate of winning).
vonskee 3 years ago
I was informed that this is"Monty Hall" "paradox". Wikipedia says that the host HAS the knowledge of where the prize is, and he ALWAYS reveals the non-prize after the first choice, what isn't stated in the clip. While watching I assumed (according to what he says) he was revealing random card (he was guessing). So taking this fact into consideration, he was right stating the probability rates, although not saying all the facts is still a fraud to me. And it's no mathematical paradox of course.
vonskee 3 years ago 2
he's absolutely right. when he said vroom vroom he was being the cheesy host.
peanut18544 3 years ago
srry david aka charlie but i would b failing this class 4 sure. but hey on da brightside Charlie aka David krumholtz wanna help me study for my math test?
iheartbernard1995 3 years ago
That's sick! Because of this program, I'm really taking more interest into my A-Level Maths! Numb3rs is SIK!!!!
masipula11 3 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
they do the same thing is 21
kingofscrim 3 years ago
For all you dum asses who don't understand this. Here....
1) The probability of picking the car first time is 1 in 3. The probability of picking a goat is 2 in 3 (Better Odds)
2) If you pick a goat then the host MUST open the other the goat (he does this in order to tempt you the change)
3) So when he opens the other goat is revealed, you know that the remaining door must be a car IF you pick a goat first.
4) Read point 1 again.
:D
999BeefEater999 3 years ago
lol im lost .... but that probably because im in in grade 10 :D
tubzz 3 years ago 3
Actually the host isn't tempting you to change. This is purely mathematically. But even if it weren't, the host wouldn't want you to change as that only helps you win.
This is hard to follow if for no other reason, your English is terrible.
igykalen 2 years ago
umm I have a degree in English Language.
999BeefEater999 2 years ago
2) ... the host MUST open the other the goat
3) So when he opens the other goat is reveled....
Where did you get your degree? The Sarah Palin school of random word ordering?
igykalen 2 years ago
omg this problem has become like a maths cliche, lol at all the noobs who don't get it :S
VerifyThis999 3 years ago
Think about it this way. Let's say there's a million cards, 1 is a car, 999,999 are goats. You pick a card, and then 999,998 cards are revealed to be goats, leaving the card you selected, and a card you have a chance to switch to. Does this mean that the card you have has a 50/50 chance of being a car? No, because at the start, you had a 1 in a million chance of getting the car, so the card you initially picked has a 1 in a million chance, while the one you can switch to a 999,999 in 1,000,000
GosuTricks 3 years ago
#1 is not stated in the problem, so it's not true. just because he did this time, doesn't mean that's the rule unless he states that's the rule, which he didn't. draw out every possibility on a spreadsheet on a spreadsheet if you don't think this matters, and you'll see why it does.
If he had stated that was the rule, then the rest of your logic follows correctly.
irks23 3 years ago
#1 on accoma's comment, since the reply feature doesn't seem to work
irks23 3 years ago
Yes it is really true, thinking of the goats as goat 1 and goat 2 might help. When the card on the right is revealed there are still 3 possible scenarios left. They all have a chance of 1/3
Scenario 1: You picked goat 1, the one on the right is goat 2 and left is the car
Scenario 2: You picked goat 2, the one on the right is goat 1 and again left is the car
Scenario 3: You picked the car.
This leads to a 2/3 chance that left is the car
qwejrqwe 3 years ago 6
No, that's untrue, since either scenario 1, or scenario 2 is eliminated when one of the cards reveals to be goat. That still leaves you with two choices (you may not know the number of the goat, but it doesn't matter, either you can't pick goat nr. 1, or goat nr 2. it still leaves you with goat X and a car - 50/50)
someman7 3 years ago
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