Neotoy Story Answers THE DAVOS QUESTION

[NeoMorpheus911]

would those metrics not be subjective? and since you are anti-industrialist, how would we progress to a state where we could more comprehensively manage our resources?

remember your computer is also a petroleum product (in part) and without gas powered machines to do your work, you would have no time to think about this..

i am not pro oil, just pro development.. lets move to nuclear and colonize mars!

[neotoy]

I'm not actually "anti-industrialist" as you stated. And I am very pro-progress, as my other videos indicate.

The difference is: I believe in reasoned, measurable and fully accountable industrialization. Which is really the only way it will ever be safe and sustainable.

And yes, all metrics are subjective to some extent, so is reality. This doesn't mean we all just throw up our hands and embrace ignorance.

[manicmetropolis]

are technically in a corporate market not a free market

[foxfairness]

excellent analysis, however, we cannot mandate this change. It must be voluntary

[neotoy]

Considering the deliberate obfuscation and resistance from the world's most powerful industries, I don't think it could happen any other way.

My current view on this is that it's only a matter of time before comprehensive metrics become a matter of survival rather than a luxury allowing for an improved standard of living.

[foxfairness]

excellent analysis

[czarwright]

Wow, Powerful

i always enjoy the truth and wisdom.

Thanks you and subbed

[FeelFreeToArgue]

Very good answer, and glad to see you getting so many hits for it. True cost accounting is needed to help us truly understand our impact on the world and the future.

May I add that I thought your avatar was cool and some of the language in here very poetic - especially the metaphor about the giant at the end.

[neotoy]

Thank you. I have been writing semi-professionally for most of my adult life so the compliment is greatly appreciated. Although my skills are clearly a work in progress and I often find myself struggling to put even the most simple of thoughts into words.

[TheNittyGrittyUK]

i disagree with what you said at around 1.33, people will always buy oil regardless of price because it is a commodity. And, if it were to rise to "unaffordable" levels, inflation would coincide with this and thus equal it.

[neotoy]

That is conventional free market theory, which hasn't proven very reliable as of late. Just keep in mind there is a difference between commodities, and necessities. Also, inflation can only rise so high, there are many instances of hyperinflation and its coinciding economic collapse throughout history.

[TheNittyGrittyUK]

I totally agree with what you said about hyperinflation - hopefully we, as a global community have become more aware since ww2 etc. Kool avatar, by the way :)

[baadios]

This is a problem VERY BIG PROBLEM to the poor people like ME! this dude must be )CRAZY(

there is uncountable number of people that has no life at all Please someone help me let me have this kid i will make him become NORMAL!

HOW MUCH OIL COST???? Sucker...........

[elastictrust]

I have only seen a few answers to this question so my praise is most likely trivial, but I definitely received your answer best and am trying to better understand what you meant by it. (I got thrown a little by your character, and had to listen twice,great animation). I would agree with you almost one hundred percent if I understood economics more than I do, but at least thanks to you I plan to educate myself. It's also nice to see people actually answering this question instead of ignoring it.Q

[neotoy]

Thank you! I value everybody's feedback, and I have also learned a lot from posting this video and talking with people just like you. Good luck with the economics, it is a fascinating topic!

[neotoy]

No matter what the "NEOCOLONIALISTS" may want, there is a larger, more significant reality that rules us all; rich and poor, dark and light. If we don't respect that as a species we won't have a future. No one chooses to be born, so I'll thank you to STFU about skin color and other variables that are purely circumstantial.

[neotoy]

You still don't seem to understand that wealth and poverty are interrelated. If you fix the economic system, you effectively eliminate poverty. Also, you don't have any right to lecture me considering that you are typing your racism laced rants on a computer.

[neotoy]

Your statement includes some legitimate points/grievances. You also sound racist.

Do you really want a better world, or do you just want revenge? Even the impoverished are caught up in the web of global economics, holistic metrics can improve their lives too.

I do not endorse the despicable behavior of historical figures, or the current "administration", who in a sane world would be charged with high treason and war crimes.

[clawofraven12]

be selfless

[DestMoon]

I like your idea, but to me, certain things cannot be measured in cost. Health, community, respectful treatment of people in a workplace, how do you measure these things? We may speak of the 'cost' of workplace deaths or injuries, but actually it comes down to people's rights to be safe. There are certain values which should be recognised around the world as non-negotiable, and therefore business and governments must respect them.

[neotoy]

Yes I agree that you can't put a number value on life and a lot of other things. But at the same time, you can't have realistic safety standards until you understand the risks involved.

If we come to understand the true threat posed by blind economics I think it will automatically inspire the kind of respect for human rights and well being that you mention.

[qp2mara]

u r partially right... when u talk about comparing the profits of the barril with an example of $99 vrs. $100 obviously it aint lucrative... the problem is that you cant see the barril and the problems it brings with it because this same barril makes part of the bases o comerce in the hole world... so you must see not only the $99 per barril, you must include All the comerce th is done throug the use of this product.

[neotoy]

Yeah I know what you mean. That would also be part of the holistic value calculation. Obviously only a global computer network like Folding@home is going to be able to process the staggering number of variables. At some level however those values do exist, they're not imaginary.

[shamakhalsa]

Neo,

good- now go further

[divinacomedias]

I love the idea of ending speculation. But who is going to calculate these things?

[neotoy]

The ultimate question right?

Since I can't answer directly I will say this: Those who are sincerely interested in long-term economic survival should want to calculate these things automatically. It just makes sense. Should be standard industrial practice IMHO.

Now, who administrates, who regulates, who enforces policy? I think those are much tougher questions. Only the collective sanity of our species can answer them.

[divinacomedias]

Well, I think it's a great idea.

I like the ideas of communities being sovereing over their finances, decentralizing banking, and making it a sovereign, democratic and participative process.

Also, in the aim of accomplishing new systems, to have participative constituent assemblies.

thumbs up

[divinacomedias]

What about autonomous central banking, miscontrolling inflation for the interests of a few, endebting nations?

[neotoy]

Assuming that we did have HEM this kind of behavior would be viewed as a threat to our survival. Only sociopaths would support such a policy if they had the information to conceptualize it, this would include "autonomous central banking" systems.

[watchdogforpeace]

Until recently the equation of Life on Earth was been deemed infinite thereby giving zero for a value to anything considered. Once we know and acknowledge that Life's equation on Earth is finite then everything has a value in absolute terms and nothing is worthless. It is therefore it is the duty and responsibility falling to economists and economic actors to determine, both for themselves and for us all what the value of what is discarded and used is worth in any given process. John F. Lohac

[Chewxy]

addendum on externalities: Sometimes there are externalities that cannot be predicted/calculated until it happens. Chalk it up to chaos theory if you want, but yea. Most of the times, externalities, positive or negative, are unpredictable.

Of course negative externalities like pollution can be predicted and calculated, but it's not on the top agenda to calculate these negative externalities.

[neotoy]

In theory the survival of our species is at stake, maybe they should bump it up a notch on the priority ladder?

Ultimately what they don't calculate costs them a lot of money, and other people their lives.

Without holistic metrics it's also possible that the money they think they are making is really just debt, some of which is impossible to pay back.

thanks for the comment, I watched your vid too, it was great.

[Chewxy]

I find that statement a wildly speculative statement - 'the survival of our species is at stake'.

We're actually reproducing faster than ever.

[neotoy]

You missed the whole point of my answer.

Rate of reproduction, just like market value is an arbitrary number that in no way represents success or even progress.

Without accurate metrics, any interpretation is as you put it, "wildly speculative". However, it's naive to believe that humanity can depend indefinitely on good luck.

Let's put an end to the speculation shall we?

[Chewxy]

we have pretty accurate metrics on rate of reproduction. And the statistics from the metrics say we're reproducing faster than ever - thanks to modern meds and stuff.

Our species is technically not under threat of extinction.

[neotoy]

In 2100 BC Sumerians were also reproducing faster than ever, but because they lacked relevant metrics they did not realize that the very agricultural practices that allowed them to thrive as a civilization were actually undermining their future survival.

Just because we have lots of technology doesn't mean we're invincible or clairvoyant.

[Chewxy]

I'm thinking you and I are not on the same level when we say metrics. AFAIK, metrics means measurement methods, like growth rate.

And the Sumerians didn't die out. They became something else. It's called evolution. Progress is a continuumn, as opposed to being quantum.

The Sumerians became the Babylonians if I remember correctly (under Hamurabi). Depending on which sources you read, Babylon was either destroyed by Jehovah (aka God) or by the Assyrians (in modern times you call them Aremians)

[neotoy]

From Wikipedia:

"Metrics are a system of parameters or ways of quantitative and periodic assessment of a process that is to be measured, along with the procedures to carry out such measurement and the procedures for the interpretation of the assessment in the light of previous or comparable assessments."

[Chewxy]

which can be succintly summarized as measurement methods.

Our metrics are good. Have always been good.

[neotoy]

Yeah, "like growth rate", but not exclusively growth rate. Metrics are also adaptive. Learning from mistakes is critical to long-term success.

Metrics that ignore empirical evidence are not good for anyone. Never have been.

[Chewxy]

??? metrics provide empirical evidence.

Most modern metrics used are adaptive and most use bayesian methods of adjustment

[neotoy]

Most yes. However, very few modern metrics are holistic in nature. Oil for example is self referencing, the value of oil exists in an economic vacuum defined by the market which ignores the holistic impact of the commodity.

Technically that is not adaptive, more like blind, bordering on entirely ignorant.

[Chewxy]

What do you mean by holistic? When I say holistic, I mean we gather and measure data on everything we can grab our hands on. EVERYTHING.

Then you do a comparison. That's my understanding, we try to measure every variable possible.

[neotoy]

Holism:

"The theory that the parts of any whole cannot exist and cannot be understood except in their relation to the whole."

The whole being the understanding of the interdependencies between all the individual elements, rather than just knowing everything about each independent element. This is true fourth dimensional economics.

[Chewxy]

Don't we already do that? Multivariate testings exists for a reason.

[neotoy]

Multivariate is not the same as holistic. So no, we don't already do that.

[Chewxy]

If so you deem. But I think we already have the understanding that everything is linked with everything else.

[neotoy]

Yeah but understanding without metrics to back it up is really just speculation, so we're back to square one.

[neotoy]

Progress is only a continuum when people are around to observe it. Also, without metrics the theory of evolution would not have been possible.

There's no down side to a more comprehensive understanding of our economic process. Clearly the information we have is limited at best.

[Chewxy]

I don't think our information is limited. I think our choice-making information is limited. I.e. information that helps us make our choices are limited.

[neotoy]

Things have changed a lot since 2100 BC, as a species we have a lot more to lose and the technology to destroy our entire ecosystem even on accident.

Ignoring the extent of that kind of power and influence isn't just irresponsible, it's totally insane.

[Chewxy]

Hmm.. did you know that economic progress (or indeed progress of any kind) is invariably linked to the destruction of the ecosystem?

Most numbers (i.e. metrics) have proven so far, that most 'sustainable' system do in fact scale back economic progression. Let's not even talk about those ecological maniacs, bloody tree huggers who think we should all go back to the stone age.

[Chewxy]

In short, what we have is a trade-off. Economic progression (and invariably, progression of human civilization) or environmental preservation.

[Chewxy]

I'm not doubting that we ignore the extent of the powers of economic progression. In fact, I totally agree that we are laying waste to ecology. I'm laying the cards for you to see. Which would you choose?

I choose economic progression for a few reasons: 1)I am highly doubtful of the figures of the environmentalists. Earth has gone through several global warmings and global ice ages. To me, it's cyclical. What we humans can do is to prepare for it, not prevent it.

[Chewxy]

2)I personally believe the likes of Al Gore are capitalizing on irrational panic of humanity. Sensationalist newsmaking is at fault here.

[neotoy]

I'd rather not take sides on environmental issues. Which is why I personally believe that holistic metrics is an ideal solution because it transcends our personal opinions.

Why keep speculating and debating? Human industry is no accident, it's our creation and our responsibility, we need comprehensive, cold, hard numbers to reveal the real impact of our industrial practices.

[Chewxy]

The data has always been there. Data for everything - holistic, as you put it. Google for Gapminder.

Yes, data is bland. It is neutral and transcends personal opinions. It also is useless, unless someone applies any kind of opinion, and work out what is best. Decision making from the data is important, because then you don't make biased decisions.

Or maybe you do. :D

[neotoy]

Thanks for the Gapminder link, I may get some use out of it.

[Chewxy]

Sure.. have a blast. I did. 2 years ago :D

[neotoy]

It must be 2 years out of date then ;P

[Chewxy]

Nope. It's constantly updated. Duh.

[neotoy]

That was joke son :o

[Chewxy]

...

[Chewxy]

addendum to market mechanism: aggregate demand and aggregate supply is the cumulative term to describe what I just mentioned - that every company calculates the costs before purchase, and summarily pays $99 per barrell of oil each. This is simply because the companies that do the calculations.. well.. value oil more than the costs of the environment and the like.

[Chewxy]

Actually, economists do calculate the costs of everything, including oil.

Each purchase of oil is calculated individually. The market mechanism is described as a machine (or invisible hand) that sets the price, but it is not. What happens is that each purchaser decides (after calculation) what is a good price to pay.

Of course, often times, plenty of economists don't factor in the externality costs (what you deemed as 'holistic'), simply out of oversight, or well.. cost cutting.