Carbon Dioxide Fertilization

[OgallalaKnowhow]

damn it youtube. sorry again for that.

I have to say though, I agree with you 100% that you need a strong economy in order to tackle environmental problems. Kyoto was a spasmodic mess, an agenda without a plan.

But theres this deeply embedded myth that there is a necessary correlation between environmental degradation and economic gain. I think this is half true. To me, the challenge for us is to make this correlation more flexible, and more accountable to 'the planet'.

[SteveWrathall]

The correlation between economic growth and CO2 emissions is not a "myth". It is a cast iron law: beween countries, within countries, and over time. "Making this correlation more flexible" is the holy grail of painless GHG reduction. So far it's proved as mythical as as the actual holy grail.

"It's only a flesh would!!"

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Precedent does not a law make! Especially given the fact that there has never been any serious attempt to limit our CO2 emissions in the past.

"A cast iron law" would mean that every unit GDP produced would = an unchanging unit of CO2.

This equation is a farce!

1) moving from manufacturing to I.T and services = stronger economy and less CO2 emissions

2) rapidly accelerating improvements and price reductions in solar power = less expense and less CO2

ect

why be automatically self-limiting?

[SteveWrathall]

1) describes UK and other economies for the past 20 years. Their CO2 emissions still rise.

2) These price reductions for alternatives have been predicted for 30 years. So far progress has been marginal, and pushed by a mountain of subsidies. the problems of intermittance and unreliability are fundamental.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Granted past claims of renewable's 'rise' had jumped the gun. But the $ going into R+D today for renewable energy today is much more then it has been before. And you cannot claim that prices have been falling only because of government intervention, rather then actual technical improvements.

CO2 emissions have continued to rise, but it would be interesting to compare the rate of $ increase to the rate of CO2 increase during the UKs heavy industry period compared to today.

[SteveWrathall]

Small scale ag more efficient? Your statemet flies in the face of 5 centuries of experience and common sense.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Its not that industrial-agriculture does not produce more food. Its that the energy ratio from input to output is enormously in-efficient when compared to small scale.

Our modern form of industrial-agriculture is notorious for driving down $ costs by ignoring external ecological costs, that in turn eventually have long-term $ costs.

Look at genetic engineering. We cannot control the spread of modified genes in the wild, and there is serious concern that this will destroy biodiversity of crops

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Look at my namesake. The Ogallala aquifer is/was a massive underground aquifer under the American Great Plains, goes from north of Texas to the Dakotas. In the mid century until today, industrial-agriculture on the Plains was looked at as one of the most productive regions in the world, and its models were exported. Only problem was that the aquifer is being drained around 8 times faster then it is refilled, in some places its practically empty, after less then 50 years of intensive agriculture.

[SteveWrathall]

But the point is that these "costs" are not happening. The world is denying catastrophic global warming, by refusing to warm even by the "low" estimates.

As for GM, if you are serious about giving up FF, then GM biofuels, nuclear, and whole bunch of other unpopular stuff has got to be there to take up the slack.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Well, I was not talking about CC in particular in terms of costs. I was referring more to the costs that agriculture has in specific; which is in certain regards related to CC in that land is cleared, and crops are a marginal carbon sink.

I don't know enough about the IPCC reports in specific, but I do know that the cooling effects of aerosols (like SoX, NoX, ect) are not fully understood. And emissions have been rising from rapid industrializers like China and India.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

As for GM. I am skeptical, not out of any morality 'playing-god' issue (we are far past that stage by now). But rather that its really not as well understood as some of the company scientists claim it to be. They have found GM corn genes in wild corn in Mexico; this is really dangerous because it destroys biodiversity. If we have a serious crop epidemic, then there is less variation in the natural gene 'reserve' to fall back on.

Im not opposed to using oil and NG, only coal.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

I suppose this is partially why they built that massive seed bank up in Svalbard, Norway.

GM is definitely an issue that I have no conclusions on yet. I'd really have to do a lot more research on it.

But in general I believe that we should be regulating biotechnology on an international level the same way we do nuclear technology. There are just too many potential unforeseen consequences.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Any data from 1997 on CO2 fertilization is totally outdated.

until recently it was thought that 2X CO2 would have a 20% increase in productivity, not 52%.

But these were experiments done in unrealistic closed laboratories. The most recent research (Free Air Concentration Enhancement) is more reliable, and shows only a 10% increase. Now this does not take into account any influences of a changing climate, which could be dire.

Schimel, D (2006) "Climate Change and Crop Yields" Science Vol.312

[SteveWrathall]

Why would other climate changes neccessarily be "dire"? Higer temperatures = longer growing seasons. Precipitation may increase or decrease regionally, but overall it is weath, infrastructure and the ability to manage water resources (resrvoirs etc.) that will allow agriculture to prosper, climate change or not.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Temperature increase will benefit crops already near their cold-limit. But most of the land above this limit is glacier terrain, I'm thinking of Russia and Canada, which has little fertile soil.

Crops that already suffer heat stress, in tropical countries, will suffer. Agriculture prices around the world have been rising rapidly (im not saying that this is due to CC at the moment), the point being that high crop prices are one of the largest causes of civil unrest in developing countries.

[OgallalaKnowhow]

Energy wise industrial-agriculture is incredibly more inefficient compared to small scale agriculture. Food is produced on the cheap precisely because we do not account for the true cost of production; water in aquifers only cost the rate of extraction, there is no price attached to NO2 run-off, ect.

Right now our current agricultural policy is a mess. It does not run on the principles of the free-market. We need ecological financing with ALL costs calculated and on display.

[SteveWrathall]

If you're worried about civil unrest, how abut the civil unrest that will come about from both poor and rich countries being told that their living standards will have to decline continually over the next century to "save the earth"?

[OgallalaKnowhow]

But Steve, I don't think that living standards have to go down through fixing our environmental problems. I mean look at health, one of the biggest expenditures of GDP in many countries, in many ways it is directly connected to our environment.

I think that right now, B.A.U as they like to say, we are heading towards a decline in living standards, and crucially you need to use a more sophisticated measurement for this then just GDP. health, ecology, education, all need to be accounted for.

[ScientologySucksAss]

Global warming is caused by our second sun that is coming back from it's 3600 year journey, this second sun is called planet x, or in the bible it is called Wormwood.

Grow a Apple Tree!

By 2010 Paris and Japan will be completey flooded from the sea rising 300 feet.

By 2012 Nasa officials say there will be no more Ice on our plaet earth and the sea level will rise by 400 feet.

[opchidexio]

Stevie Wonder, you and I are on the same page. You are friggin reading my mind, it seems!

But you present the facts much better than I do... Oh well. My main concern is that the TRUTH gets out. I don't need to be the one to do it.

[SlyerNZ]

Gotta hate that islamo-fascism.