Hugh Hendry July 5 2009 - Bond Bull, Equity Bear

[nolf999]

Gillian Tett, your lisp is slightly annoying. I'm sorry, I love your work and writing, but damn that lisps annoying.

[radicalsquare]

Did a chunk of this $50 trillion actually vanish (due to devaluation), or was it transfered to holders (beneficiaries?) of credit default swaps, thus tax money will eventually have to cover the loss? I'm no expert, I'm trying to understand this dynamic.

[nolf999]

@radicalsquare not entirely sure what you mean there. A lot of the $50tn was lost due to falls in asset values, so it's just dissappeared in a way. Credit default swaps have never been a huge part of the market. Many were sold by AIG, which was govt supported. But I'm not sure if the govt actually backd the CDS guarantee.

[radicalsquare]

@nolf999

I ponder the notion of money vanishing. I see a sum wealth consisting of all usable and valuable stuff, commodities, services, etc. The numbers reported are averages of the incalculable (perhaps) marked-to-market sales and trades in which nominal wealth is transfered. One loses and another gains. Someone paid top dollar for the rotten bag. Anyway, GoldS needed AIG bailed out or they'd lost $10B (~13$B-3B they were hedged against), perhaps underestimating the damage they could do!

[sindbad4u]

Okay, I like the guy! Very outside the box, interesting thoughts.

BUT, I will play the devil's advocate now:

1. How much does he pocket in for those interviews on FT, CNBC, well you name it.A perfect non correlated hedge in respect to his investment with very little downside. The downside might be, not getting invited any more, and not pocketing money any more ...

2. He totally missed the recovery in 2009 ...

3. He was sometimes wrong in the future (look it up) and he might be wrong again

[darkarts59]

Hugh Hendry eh? just saw him on that Evan bloke's show on BBC news. The other 2 guests were just mouthing platitudes but this guy looks like he thinks for himself. God knows if he's right I don't understand this stuff but who does? Certainly not Prime mentalist Brown.

[90210mrthumper]

Who is this boy- I think that is his tiny boat going past behind him. I had a good year too last year and it is a lot biggere than he. His look like tender to my wifes! I thinking this boy is not knowing what he talks about. He very funny though.

[qwertywxyz]

Oh please. There is unprecedented inflation under progress.

How much is your grocery bill compared to a year ago?

I thought so.

[lsa420]

Is this the same Hugh Hendry who said in 2005 that the Nikkei was going to 40,000?

Glad I didn't listen to that piece of advice.

[croemar]

I don't trust these predictions.

Way too optimistic

[philzuco]

Hugh is brilliant. I like his preferece for bonds over equities, but I don't agree with his choice of US dollar denominated bonds as the preferred investment vehicle. I think the best way to play bonds going forward is to buy quality emerging market bonds (such as Brazil, yielding 9.25% pa).

[catrac4o]

always insightful, definitely not a sheeple

[vcdrob]

Thanks for posting this up; always like to hear what Hugh's saying these rare times he's put infront of a Camera.

[GypsyHustle]

Who is this coke head?