Will peak oil cause a recession or depression? Aaron Wissner

[TheRadicalLiberal]

Recession or Depression?? Ha! You'd be so lucky. We are talking about the end of industrial civilization and a return to the economy of about 1750. The world cannot support anywhere near the current population so we are also talking about the extermination of probably 90% of the population too.

[james7696739]

Its worse than he says, the price of oil responds to falling demand from the West much less than it did. The price is four times what it was in 2002 and we are in the middle of a depression.

[dominicanomejia]

u r out of date its all the federal government

[lickmyballsbiotch]

the human population will have to mirror that graph for a balance to happen. when ghawar dies so does your lifestyle, prepare.

[christo930]

I wonder how much the price of oil played in bringing about the collapse we are in right now? High oil prices pulled a lot of money out of the rest of the economy. $5.00 a gallon gas (close to it) reduced spending in other areas. People didn't have as many discretionary dollars as they did when oil was cheap. Then the price collapsed causing even more problems.

[newculture]

As the price of oil increased, the amount of money had to spend on their regular bills declined. Those already living from paycheck to paycheck were unable to make ends meet, and started falling behind.

This quickly exposed the extreme weakness and total lack of resilience that had been building up within the global money system.

The worst is yet to come since money is simply a claim on energy and our global money system can only function with a growing energy supply.

[christo930]

With this global recession which is only like now just starting, it will buy us time to bring new energy supplies on line. I very much like algae as a replacement bio-fuel. There really isn't much else in the cards unless we can very quickly move the fleet over to electric cars and that won't happen in this economy. Hopefully Algae and switchgrass can work. Corn ethanol is just a waste which should be stopped right now.

[Termin8tor]

In my opinion I think it was be prudent to build electrolysis plants near dams, and power them using the dams hydro-electricity. If this could be done on a large scale it might be possible to manufacture hydrogen fuel. The downside? massive amounts of oil need to be invested in such things.

[Zyozyoma]

The economy's gonna start shrinking in time, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. In any country where the death rate exceeds the birth rate, like Japan, where I live, the economy can afford to be stagnant without too much negative impact, because the loss in population is reducing demand.

[yahoovisitor]

Global inflation arises mainly by a man due to his excessive greed leading to misplanning, deficit financing ceasing his ability to follow the basic principles of controlling it. Its based on dogmatism & confiscation of the basic rights. When a man becomes inhumane acquiring the worst characters devil is after him to follow. When he tries to deprive the other members of the society from the rights they all deserve. Chaos & anarchy with suicide bombing & global destruction are visible end results

[mikkoanttilainen]

Alternative energy sources need lots of cash for development until they are ready for large scale rampup. Credit is still available despite the financial issues right now, but as soon as PO is evident, productivity declines and that credit will be hard to find. Fossil fuel use is likely to dominate until it is too late for development, because any temporary decline in fossil fuel demand has devastating impact on financing new businesses, however promising they might look like. WE NEED REGULATION

[yahoovisitor]

Fake inflation of basic items of everyday life is being created, but the human life for which all this is being done seems to be of no price or having no value. Daily hundred thousands of human beings are losing life by different ways. Isnt it possible by United Nations, G-8 or some International Human Rights Commission to work out a formula of basic human rights & needs of life & implement it to end this situation of chaos ending in extremism or terrorism by unaccountable no of ways nowadays?

[pankajsaxena12345]

History repeats itself.ever thing that goes up has to come down whether it is a ball,economy or country.USA will suffer the most.

[dave98503]

who gives a rats ass...if the USA is desperate

enough, we can drill all over the world, invade all over and into Canada and force all the Canadians to dig in the tar sands to fuel our big ass, growing American Obese bellies full of burgers and fries. mmm, mmm good!

[Yayapilo]

I think we will have the alternatives needed to replace petrol. However, like I have read many experts who say that many of these can take perhaps even decades. So the most important question I pose to you all, ladies and gentleman, how do we make it so that petrol will last us while we work on these alternatives?..My suggestion force conservation by putting prices NOW at $10 or more a gallon. I'm doing my part..biking, walking...last time I fueled was three weeks ago.

[13mns]

The erroneous part of this video is that there

are no alternatives to oil based energy. This

is true short term but IS NOT TRUE long term.

There are many forms of energy...fossil fuels

will give way to nuclear energy in particular fusion.

[newculture]

There are no utility fusion reactors in the world. There is no REALISTIC expectation for there ever to be. "Fusion" has always been 50 years away.

Our best bets are hydro, tidal, wave, wind, solar, and a miniscule amount of bio.

Those won't come online quickly though. They certainly won't prevent a global recession or a global depression.

[arizonaresident1]

All those trucks on the highway delivering your goods, all those tractors farming your food, all those ships carrying your cargo, all those airplanes people take to make business deals, DON'T RUN ON NUCLEAR POWER!

[gorseandbroom]

Do you think the world economy will just keep on happily with oil at $150-$300 per barrel??? this is what the man is on about, not that there are no alternatives. I wish you naysayers would just listen for a change, instead of trying to read things that aren't being said.

[soylentgreenb]

Sure. We've had the equivalent of $150-300/bbl here in Sweden for decades through high taxation(if you use inflation adjustments to get constant 2010 dollars).

It's no big deal. You use trains and boats to move most freight, you don't build american-style fake suburbs(real suburbs that grow up naturally under free market conditions are closer to towns; they're walkable and contain industry, shops, schools, restaurants ...), you ditch the average 1.5 occupancy SUVs etc.

[sep780]

I'm hoping that fossil fuels give way to hydro, wind, solar, & other types like that for our electricity. For gas for our cars ethanol is a possibly alternative for oil. I do admit though that it may not be the only alternative we have though.

[baronmorris]

Peak Oil will cause Economic GROWTH if we get on the alternative energy thing full-on and pronto. New industries and infrastructure will arise, buying selling and hiring, etc. and people will feel good about it, too.

It's a no-brainer. But moneyed power is entrenched in the fossil fuel paradigm.

Peace!

Obama!

[newculture]

Economic "growth" is simply a measure of the global energy supply. After all, energy is what allows "growth" to occur.

If peak oil is now, than the global energy supply will decline. Some industries will probably arise, but many more will decline.

[baronmorris]

I respectfully disagree. Solar, geothermal, tidal, wind, hydrogen (which makes water vapor when burned, btw), and many other quite viable sustainable and abundant energy sources can in reality match the energy demand currently met by oil. Plus these energies are produced locally, and don't run out.

Plus there's innovation. Look back 100 or 150 years. Whoa! right? It's not inevitable that we will land on our feet, but it's more than just possible. But it won't happen if we are fatalistic.

[newculture]

If we have 20 years to transition, and start now, like gangbusters, then these will all be very viable. Unfortunately, we don't have 20 years, or even 10 years.

Strategies?

Heating: superinsulation, passive solar, conservation, very limited burning biomass

Electricity: solar, but probably not via PV

Transportation: pretty much all human powered and public mass transit, much much less shipping of goods

Remember, creating alternative energy devices uses energy too.

[frisianmouve]

this is why we have to invest in alternative energy supplies.

[newculture]

Alternative energy is part of the answer. Conservation is a step. Increased efficiency is a step. Living more sustainably is a step.

Of course, none of these things can stop a recession or depression, particularly if peak oil is less than 20 years away.

Peak oil is, for all practical purposes, here now.

[leeraconteur]

Peak Oilers lack imagination and faith.

To you guys, it is impossible that any of the following will EVER occur:

1) Any discovery that increases energy efficiency greatly

2) Any discovery of any new source of cheap energy

3) Any discovery of any new source of oil

4) Any discovery of any new method to extract and refine existing oil.

What do you think $100/bl or $200/bl will do to innovation and motivation to find new oil fields and energy sources?

[newculture]

Your definition of "Peak Oiler" does not include me.

There may very well be one up to all of your 1-4 list.

The question is not whether these things will happen, but it is HOW FAST will they happen.

Hoping for these things to be able to offset the decline in the oil supply is like doing a raindance during a drought. It might be fun, and a good distraction, but it isn't very productive.

[utubeuser1971aok]

I think that is why we are in Iraq. Don't you?

I mean when it gets really bad I think we will get oil from Iraq or Canada? Bush seems so sure of himself. Why would he be so sure that history will prove him right?

[Dotveoh]

canada has oil? lol

[landongendur]

What's so funny about Canada having oil?

[newculture]

Canada has lots of bitumen, a.k.a. tar sands or "oil sands". Through a many step process, this can be converted into a high quality oil.

The USA imports more oil from Canada than from any other country.

While Canada has lots of this, it has to be strip mined, which is an EXTREMELY slow process, and will never be able to scale up like a free flowing oil field.

[Caramonn]

Have you ever seen Human being change direction before it is too late? You think leaders are willing to give up their position, status, money? think again. In my opinion we are now in the long recession for the next 20, 30 years. I will be go on until the whole world crashes down. Some countries will have resources (USA, Canada, Russia) and other will suffer.

[markymarkuss777]

We're in Recession right now already! I say Recession all through 2008, and GREAT DEPRESSION in 2009

[newculture]

It is certainly possible and worth planning for... but I don't think it is likely... "be prepared" is a good motto.

[belleamant]

thx for sharing :)

[PahaLukki]

So this guy thinks it is deflationary...? Which one will it be... hyperinflation, or deflation?

[newculture]

It will probably be a cyclical swing between them, but the timeframe is the trick. If it is decades from one to the next, will people care? If it continues with the high inflation rate, how will that impact us? If it then cycles into deflation, what then?

One interesting tidbit is that a few years ago, the U.S. Vice President (Cheney) did some investing. Half was inflation protected; the other half was deflation protected. He knows as well as anyone else about peak oil.

[PahaLukki]

So, what's deflation protection? Cash?

[newculture]

That is my strategy.

Gold for inflation; cash for deflation.

And, reduce my personal dependence on the global economy for the necessities.

[markymarkuss777]

So Peak Oil means that we've tapped our resource of oil? Or does it mean we've peaked in terms of the cost of oil?

[newculture]

Peak Oil means that we've passed the maximum extraction rate, which means that somehow, we have to rapidly decrease consumption.

Will this be by the market rising prices, so the poor have to cut back because of lack of means? Does this mean we head into recession? If we go into recession, will oil exporters decrease production? If so, how will we respond to prices that don't fall?

Oil is worth many times more what it is now, so no, it is definitely not peak price.