Nicholas Christakis: How social networks predict epidemics

[christiaanmeyer]

Is it just me or does this guy's voice sound like a badly programmed text-to-speech robot?

[faready]

@christiaanmeyer Just you... nerd!

[christiaanmeyer]

@faready wow i feel so insulted now by your very insulting comment

[faready]

@christiaanmeyer now I am insulted... mommy :(

[christiaanmeyer]

@faready OH the humility! how insulting

[faready]

@christiaanmeyer please... I am trying to watch the video :)

[ngeliatduit]

Gila, semua punya di bantai, sial!! Ok. Good!!

[juliacotic]

Lovely channel

[PolishRapsy]

CARE2 - Creative Application to Remedy Epidemics 2

[mrbenderson005]

Yeah, I can see a lot of different ways this can.. and ultimately will be abused, but some of the benefits would be good, like the flu intervention, save for the fact that the vaccine manufacturers would never allow a responsible and cost effective distribution that would save millions from having to take it.

[edhchi]

why does he sound like he is constantly shouting! Other than that, I love the ideas!

[IBDUwebsite]

very interesting!

[IBDUwebsite]

very interesting!

[IBDUwebsite]

very interesting! thank you!

[WorldCollections]

Gaytech !

[WorldCollections]

Let's see if we could get a bunch of terrorists to nominate their friends !

[WorldCollections]

"The friendship paradox" hypothesis didn't hold on my facebook.

[WorldCollections]

A bit persuaded...by the fake applause at the beguining. 

[RonzigsGallery]

Like everything that has ever been developed to improve the human situation, there is a flip side which ALWAYS takes precedence. The power structure we have allowed to evolve ensures that ALL new developments intended to make things better will be co-opted by people and organizations that will use them exclusively to control and subjugate the majority of society to the will of the powerful elite.

[his1dudeness]

This just scared the shit outta me!

[wallshuttle]

Please help me. Please help me.

Ten years of effort, we successfully developed the most advanced "Wall Shuttle" in the world eventually.

For paint and wallpaperin. Diy new invention

Thanks!

Ganxing.Ke

[bluefootedpig]

If you saw this and the "i am my connectome"... it almost looks like the structure of society's brain. hm... i wonder what that could actually be.

[deniskin2006]

"Don't be EVIL !" .... well, it's kinda an old moto.

Let's try it again - "Evil will save humanity"

hm, hard to buy, no problem,

we'll make your friends spy on you, ssshh, so nobody knows.

[Shawnruss]

This seems to be a very fascist way of monitoring communication.

Genome analyzation can also screen insurable peoples, but what is right?

[kisstigris]

this is pretty dangerous. Nothing new already used for monitorinf, yet still surprised that somebody ahd the balls to go publicly. Im not sure if this man is so naive to believe that this will or is used for common benefit.

[Dumass88]

Information can be used both good and bad.

As long as the people use the information for good, they will hopefully be able to prevent it to be used for bad.

[bestplugins]

very interesting, but cia may be even more interested than me.

[bestplugins]

how to predict epidemics: close all pharmaceutical labs.

[bestplugins]

@bestplugins i mean, close those labs, and i predict there will be no epidemies

[dollaresque]

wow... that is all I have to say.

[dab4w]

This is absolutely brilliant.

[RonzigsGallery]

You can bet that the bad guys are using this extensively. It is imperative that the good gus also make use of it to counteract the negatives. At least NOW we know about it and how it works.

[sarahj666666]

@RonzigsGallery

Q is: "who are the bad guys?". I tend to not trust administrations too much, and they are at the source of all that information.

[RonzigsGallery]

@sarahj666666 It's easy to know who the bad guys are. They are the ones working diligently at eroding our rights and freedoms to the end of creating a master/slave society. Bankers CEO's Financiers and nearly every politician in the world.

[linjunhalida]

 Leonard Hofstadter?

[yourtube20061]

They r showing this being used for an epidemic, to make it look innocuous, but they cd easily use it to control or manipulate any population, infiltrate resistance or a network like Anonymous.

[TheMonsterzero]

This of course is not going to be used in a good way. If you could just target central people and manipulate them, you could lead the masses in anyway you see fit. Just another way to spy to spy on the public

[notunderarock]

Man, TED has really been pushing the vaccine issue. Oh my they better start preparing all of us for flu season. Those vaccines companies could really use the money, I'm sure!

[SuperiorApostate]

THERE'S A MIC ATTACHED TO YOUR HEAD YOU SHOUTING IDIOT.

[x3ICEx]

Achievement unlocked!

Feat of strength: Watch this talk without fast forwarding or looking away.

[sdmac21]

@x3ICEx

I am gonna be trying for this one for a while I think

[BroBroDude]

fuck this guy

[kaosgoblin]

Way to shout through your whole speech.

[BroBroDude]

@kaosgoblin Right? Terrible speaker.

[strappinggermanlad]

How exactly is this supposed to be dangerous? Google already knows everything from where you live, whom you relate yourself to, your interests etc especially if you are using google chrome.

but what evil are they gonna use it for except maybe setting up ads according to your interests.

Also I find it funny how everyone is so anti-1984 when they give the most intimate detail in their twitters and upload private pictures and videos for everyone to see...

[danno1111]

What I don't understand: so if I was randomly selected for the study, they're going to ask me to nominate one of my friends? Why would I do that, and how am I supposed to decide which friend to select?

Stupid and dangerous... look for better solutions than this.

[omegavalerius]

@danno1111

The idea is that more likely than not you will nominate someone who has more friends than you. You are not suppose to base your choice on any criteria. In fact the more you think about it the worse for the guys trying to study networks

Another thing I learned in business school is that if you want to give critique you ought to have a better solution ready or at least some suggestions for improvement.

[SuperiorApostate]

@omegavalerius I hate people who see everything related to business, they just appear sleazy.

[yogilix]

Very dangerous...!!! This should be forbidden as it is a kind of control pr manipuation of the people/ideas...

[jwil2570]

I wonder why the 60's seemed so promising. Seems like high school students today have a world of opportunity and potential ahead of them. Far more than at any other time in history. Politics and the economy are no match for human innovation. Makes me proud to be a citizen of Earth.

[kommaV1023]

Google has large enough data to apply this science!

[elchafa]

This information in the wrong hands is humanity's Nemesis.

[Gameboob]

With too many people on earth flu epidemics and the like are needed, if gov'ts aren't concerned with reducing population numbers.

[Cannibalzz]

If you want to get a paper published these days, all you have to do it title it "How Social Networks [something] [something]"

[ilikebeubz]

basically he mapped out how when people get something other people follow

[solo1y]

I think if it was actually true, it would be dangerous. However, the idea that certain "node" people have undue influence over the entire population is not new, and it's been discredited: wiki/Small_world_experiment#Cr­itiques

[SheepRCool17]

this can be very very good thing and yet have a very high potential for taking advantage of people

[GordonEdward]

Wasn't there already another TED video about this?

[thavador]

The mobile phone graphic was giving me creeps.

This is the stuff the secret intelligence of every country was dreaming of for so long... some of them tortured people to get a glance of it... and now everybody is just putting their privacy out there. What the heck happened? And what will happen with all these highly vulnerable individuals - that are us - in the comming centuries? Human kind just doesn't get wise from one day to another, allways keep that in mind when putting data out.

[Gatoona]

Time to go out and get more friends.

[Frozenyak]

I also agree, this idea - though genius, has way too much trust in the essential decency of corporate intention. 

[Coreythecheese]

@Tpar1234 Brilliantly said.

[Galshaer]

this will turn ugly.

[smudge6699]

This is bollocks!

He's looking at 1 network instead of how many other people one individual communicates with, we are more intertwined than this lecture suggests.

We are all 6 people away from everyone else.

:-)

[morthim]

@smudge6699 false, prove it. find five people between you and me.

[smudge6699]

@morthim

That the 6 exist is one thing, finding the root through them to you is another.

Look at the maths if you think it's fake.

1, 6, 36, 216, 1296, 7776.

Total = 9331

I'm 1 you're 1 in 7776 in a pool of 9331 I have to find!

Needles and haystacks?

You look like my eldest brothers youngest daughter though.

:-)

[morthim]

@smudge6699

for that to work, a person must know 6 people. i don't, and there is no reason to assume ALL other people know six people. if you can show me where the '6' people comes from then i might be able to help, but atm it just seems like a random number. also 1/72 million (or less due to shared nodes) vs 7 billion people or even the 300 million in the US... beyond that i don't think your node count is solid

also thanks for the compliment about looking like family, in a way we all are.

[smudge6699]

@morthim

C'mon, I bet there are at least 6 people you talk to on a regular basis?

We are indeed all family, inside us is a door to a room we all share, some sadly have difficulty finding the door.

(sigh)

[amanwhodied]

I knew the social network from sociology before - and i was inspired by numb3rs, they used there similar strategies ..... a very interesting topic and can be transported to any business ! And has a "scary" side if you think of being predicted ^^

[redsbr]

Just know you cant quanitify Emotion, only the behavior you observe (or take the liberty of acquiring) from people. Oh and speaking of emotions, we hate you.

[eyallev]

sounds like a good idea. say you want to know if/when a population might turn towords being commuiniest, so you gather a few random ppl, ask them if they are commuiniest, and than ask then to name a friend to be questioned.

[redsbr]

9:53 "or to predict the adoption of a product.." did he just say that?

I mean, why don't you just start an epidemic WHILE predicting the adoption of a vaccine youve also created for it.. you know.... since money and power is the only thing corperations care about.

[amjPeace]

Kevin Bacon is at the very center!

[roidroid]

@amjPeace Kevin Bacon, in the Total Perspective Vortex.

[cooperbep3]

The intimation you give away without even thinking about it. Let's hope its used for good

[RandallSteen]

Maybe we can collect information about centrally located people to eliminated political discent. Edward Burnays would love computational social science to manufacture consent. With propaganda and mapping the government would only need to control 20 to 30 %, to control the larger society. That is why totalitarian governments like East Germany kept dossiers on individuals of interest. Does this scare anyone else?

[chernobila]

this is very raw and therefore boring. Not there yet buddy. I ll check back

[CharBroiled04]

@chernobila

I couldn't disagree more. He appears to have a very refined structure here. If he had given the theory and no example studies, I'd agree... but he quoted several already completed studies.

[MarxIzalias]

Hindsight paradox! Scenario A: We stopped the illness before it became serious, how did you know it would become serious, well we made an educated guess. Will never know if it would have become serious, it is now unfalsifiable making the effort unjustifiable. Scenario B: We didn't stop the illness from spreading, It wasn't an epidemic, Now we know it wasn't serious. Scenario C: We didn't stop it, it was an epidemic. If only we had stopped it. HINDSIGHT PARADOX! Their research is pointless.

[MarxIzalias]

Continued;

By working on a system of prediction, you undermine the system before the outcome.

There are circumstances this works but they are by far, LESS COMPLEX and don't have as many variables as social network constructs.

The results seem promising but the net result will be unjust if preventative measures are actually taken, in a way it is presuming guilt by association.

If my friend likes X then I will. It is bunk.

[MarxIzalias]

... Lastly.

An example of this can be formulaic;

If you state X, where X is the future event, and Y is the variable which will ensure that event never occurs. You do Y therefore X IS NOT A FUTURE EVENT and the system has been undermined.

X will never happen and it is unjustified to make the statement that X will happen in the future as a starting premise.

It is possible to predict the future given enough variables, but by trying to change it, your original prediction is wrong.

[AutodidacticPhd]

@MarxIzalias The problem you label as a "hindsight paradox" only applies if you have no previous population data, which is rarely the case. Efficacy of the application of a predictive model can be judged by comparing it to similar situations where the model was not used (or in some cases ignored or not acted upon). By building a comparative database of case studies over time the accuracy improves, and while it'll likely never reach 100%, you can still establish a better than chance efficacy.

[MarxIzalias]

@AutodidacticPhd

You point rests on the past being indicative of the future, but that would presuppose deterministic logic, which is not the case with our universe.

It applies even if you have past data.

For if Y is the independent variable, extraneous variables still exist to alter the outcome before the implementation of the countermeasure.

Each scenario is unique, with some degrees of similarity, it is because of this that past data seems relevant, but it is not significantly relevant.

[AutodidacticPhd]

@MarxIzalias Each event of a given system is not unique. The whole reason systems can be identified in the first place is the fact that they tend to share a large number of common variables and behaviors. The degree to which a system can be predicted is simply a matter of the accurate defining of a narrow system and whether the margin of error in the output is small enough to be useful. The universe you describe would be pure chaos, utterly incapable of supporting life, much less modern tech.

[MarxIzalias]

@AutodidacticPhd

The point can be highlighted simply with the lottery model, no matter how many combination's have passed through any given machine, predicting the next set of numbers based on any potential patterns of causative factors is fruitless because the future variables are not based on the previous set in any significant way, they are relevant to the others in that it is the same scenario but that is not enough for a prediction.

And the lottery is way less complex than epidemiology.

[AutodidacticPhd]

@MarxIzalias Epidemics are prior state dependent complex systems that progress through time, while lotteries are effectively instantaneous and independent events (not even systems). The methods of analysis aren't even in the same branches of maths. Your comment on how little complexity there is in a lottery should be your first clue that you have no basis for comparison.

[MarxIzalias]

@AutodidacticPhd

Firstly...

"Each event in a given system is not unique"

"...they tend to share large number of common variables an behaviours"

Self-refuting implication. :/

"...the universe you describe would be pure chaos, utterly incapable of supporting life"

Our entire universe is a chaotic system.

"Mathematically, chaos refers to a very specific kind of unpredictability: deterministic behaviour that is very sensitive to its initial conditions."

I have sent you a PM with some information.

[AutodidacticPhd]

@MarxIzalias "Self-refuting implication. :/"

Hollow, self-satisfying retort. If you have a point, make it. If you just want to be smug in public, go do it elsewhere.

"Our entire universe is a chaotic system."

Do you have even an iota of evidence to back that up? This is pure rhetorical grandstanding.

[MarxIzalias]

@AutodidacticPhd

...Look up the definition of chaos.

/facepalm/

[AutodidacticPhd]

@MarxIzalias Look up the definition of colloquial usage. And in the future, if you want to conduct an HONEST discussion, either choose to do it entirely in public, or entirely in private. I have no time to repeat your cloakroom embarrassments for the home viewer.

[MarxIzalias]

@AutodidacticPhd

As for the "Hollow self-satisfying retort...

Your point A implied not B...

"Each event in a given system is not unique"

Your point B implied not A

"...they tend to share large number of common variables an behaviours"

The implications YOUR TWO STATEMENTS refute each other, which makes it SELF-REFUTING IMPLICATION!

You clearly don't understand the terms, logic or how to construct and internally consistent argument.

It is not me who should be embarrassed.

[AutodidacticPhd]

@MarxIzalias I'm sorry, but those statements are not contradictory. You are imposing your own opinion on them. It merely says that a system can define a set of similar events without those events being identical. If anything the statements are redundant, not contradictory. Perhaps unprecedented may be a better term than unique, seeing as you seem to think that every word that CAN have a mathematical definition must use it. I know my operators, though you seem to have a problem with English.

[keishafabio]

good thing not all people are affected by audio alone.. for some reason I find this presentation with a somewhat negative vibe, perhaps his body language, perhaps his choice of words/tone.. anyhow the idea is good & potent. would be interesting if it is implemented in a good way.

regards,

potentially paranoid person =]

[Jonboy207]

Revolutionary. Amazing.

[NextToNothing123]

I feel like I got the gist after about ten minutes

[oicub2]

You've been Mapped 14:08

You Are the ginnie pig

[Oberonjames]

This all sounds like a benevolent version of 1984....

[cheeseit126]

this is dangerous within our current economic system; but it seems very revolutionary

[LazyOtaku]

@cheeseit126 Very revolutionary-ily sick, can you imagine that in this system? "Finally, we have more ways to conduct more population with less of us pulling their (friend)strings."

[LuciousVBogeymanProd]

brilliant

[SebDice]

facebook works for something good! at last.

[BlowDevilUp]

I'm just not that interested in product adoption. Even if the product advertisement has been crafted especially for me. In fact I would rather isolate myself from any additional product advertisement altogether.

[TalynCo]

This sounds hugely intrusive.

[alphadawg44]

technology enabled tyranny

[GodofCider]

@alphadawg44 And the food you eat, the clothing you wear, the building you're taking shelter in, and the computer you're communicating upon; not to mention the language you're using.

[Umbalafum]

@alphadawg44

surely FoxNews is already on it.

[ppsychol]

unfortunetly sooner or later someone will use this for evil purposes

[DrQuijano]

Is it just me, or is this talk eerily similar to an almost identical talk that someone else gave a few months back?

[BBwoan]

@DrQuijano exactly what I felt

[joelito101]

I think this is a great idea we can use to spread global peace.

[Shmior]

i dn't like this at all.

[mazdaplz]

pff knowledge spreads by population? i think not!

many of the people learning from this video in fact have no friends whatsoever ;)

[johsy]

I heard of this some time ago, not as well as it was presented here though. Super interesting but as every great idea, there is always the chance that it could be used negatively.

[liesandtricks]

its seems the only thing any of these resent video's are about social media and the environment (particularly to ocean), important topics of course but there's more to the world then that.

what this looks like is another damm tool for marketing

[serioush]

Great presentation, very interesting.

[theron1n]

A lot of the things he describes frighten me. Sure, you could use this technique to monitor all types of behaviors, but should you?

[LeadPaintSandwich]

@theron1n but then you can't exterminate all the sick people, or force them to take expensive vaccines for a flu that killed like 50 people worldwide. i mean imagine if the SS had this information. jews and jew sympathizers wouldn't have a chance.

[washaway]

@theron1n ask the people at WoW if you should exploit someones psychology for profit.

[quosmo1]

i usually find that anyone who pronounces 'processes' as 'processies' is full of shit.

[AlgeKalipso]

Very clever idea! I love the friend paradox :)

[quosmo1]

this is such a load of crap

[DanoruX]

Conversely, we now know whom to infect with bio-weapons for maximum damage. This info is as dangerous as it is useful.

[thisisrobertb]

So this is a chapter from The Tipping Point right?

[WalneyCol]

orwell would be spinning in his grave

[ergoprox84]

Couldn't agree more, this is dangerous on so many levels..

[michelb08]

@ergoprox84 they will try and try always, new ways to encounter the population with new inventive and creativity. Think tanks, working 24/7 day in and out get payed many numbers to freak us out. Let us be creative too and stay ahead of the 24/7 slaves of the globalists, the bilderbergers, the rockefellers and illuminati alikes.

[fauxman]

antone else think this guy sounds like kermit the frog?

[quosmo1]

@fauxman omg! it totally does! :) lol

[7brushes]

I want to puke after listen this talk , is repugnant !

[SleepingGiantsSister]

IF YOU DON'T WANT TO GET SICK MAKE SURE YOU NEVER PUT ANYTHING IN YOUR EARS, THIS MEANS YOUR FINGERS OR Q-TIPS BECAUSE PEOPLE REACH INTO THE Q-TIP BOX AGAIN AND AGAIN WITH UNCLEAN HANDS.

[vjacq88]

This guy is really sick. Vaccinations!? Reducing human population like its a good thing? Why mention it. With all this constant "homeland security" and this guy is peddling the collection of data!!? Okay...I'm smelling a RAT here. This is sooooo mark of the BEAST and I'm not religious.

Be careful everyone....this guy doesn't care about people. Seriously.

[cGBaDKaRMa]

@vjacq88

No joke dude. I got the same nagging feeling just from the way he's talking after two minutes. He begins by commenting on predicting social trends and identifying where they begin as they begin; then proceeds to use disease tracking as the motivation for this data collection. Then he drops this: 15:04

He couldn't stink more if he was bathing in a septic tank.

[HelplessVictim]

@cGBaDKaRMa

Economists MAKE A LIVING figuring out where people are, what they're thinking, and what they want to buy. This is nothing new.

[vjacq88]

@cGBaDKaRMa I feel ya bro. People keep underestimating this administration and or these Globalist as if its some kind of joke when their on RECORD stating that they want to reduce the population by almost 80%. The joke here is that those who doubt these Psychopaths and categorize their actions as a conspiracy is delusional. He's literally! showing us how they intended on monitoring and regulating our social structure. If anyone thinks its not being done now then ya nuts. Their yrs ahead of us.

[vjacq88]

@cGBaDKaRMa This tech didn't just pop out the blue. Their using it as we speak but I'm sure this falls well within the boundaries of Americas privacy act. Its amazing how people can just look at this and not see anything wrong with it. F**k this....I'm deleting my facebook. I'm all for good tech but NOT at the price of losing my freedom. Once you start accepting B.S. like this then they set you up for something which is far more worst. I'm not buying it. This guy and most vids REEKS of BIG-GOV.

[vjacq88]

with out.

[vjacq88]

lol So basically the only way to disconnect or make this obsolete is to not use the net...yikes. Personally this seems to benefit big business and or control. The key word is control or regulation...what ever you choose to call it. Its just another form of human branding. Your life wont fall apart with Tech everybody.

wow.

[xjustamem0ryx]

apply this to business, marketing, media, government networks and predict lethargy or conspiracy epidemics?

:PPP

[sakar181]

@Timeofflux

Substantiate your claim of quackery. Evidence, lets see it.

[Kirbynessness]

So.. He wants to use Tracking Cookies.. for real life?..

[yousefamar]

A refreshingly good talk.

[IoDecay]

hey, here's a concept: when your friend has the flu, don't be in close proximity to them.

[wolffenhaus]

spy, fear monger, money changer.

[urcritic]

It is interesting... but I have a feeling this predictive strategy has more of a chance of being adopted by corporations for marketing purposes rather than by healthcare systems. Just call me an old fashioned cynic.

[flamablesteve]

@urcritic Since when does cynicism fall out of fashion?

[Yaalah]

@urcritic You're right. But if it works for them, they'll eventually pass it on--perhaps even sponsor it--for healthcare systems.

This fellow's a marketer to business, first and foremost.

[lexbryan]

@urcritic i agree

[EuroInvicta]

@urcritic I agree wholeheartedly.... marketing has gotten so sophisticated, and still in many ways healthcare lags pitifully behind... especially in areas where more of it is needed. The movers and shakers of society will move and shake more, and the fringes will get even more irrelevant, I think.

[uk8581]

@urcritic

 You are totally Right...

[hyperlexic2]

@urcritic why not both? but these models always break when we become 'aware' of them and apply them. ask the guys at Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros how well their models predict markets.

[darksean99]

@urcritic I see no reason why it can't be used for both.