1 in 8 chance of a misfire?

[OMGItsAllen]

Watched this and started laughing.

[SolarisBlitz]

Ahhh...Super Smash Bros. Melee.

Good times. :)

[HammarHeart]

1/8 times were misfires... reminds me of my ex-wife.

[thegreatsolar]

It's like a bunch of little fishies!

[frizzman1991]

Hokay, so der is only one way to say dis. On a fixed chance of something occurring, the chance of it happening doesn't change based of the actual occurrence rate. That being said, as you perform more trials the observed average will indeed come closer to the expected average. Hokey-tay?

[Elie4Elite]

You failed.

It's 1 in 8 chance of a misfire PER Luigi.

[nathan9384]

@Elie4Elite I hope you're joking, because it's the same equation either way.

[Zeldagigafan90210]

I really do like that luigi was given a different voice in Brawl, Didn't really like how he sounded like mario in melee and SSB64 at all.

[IYoshis7]

I jusst notice that Luigi looks Mexican. (Not trying to be racist)

[SeasonalTNT]

I've had 8 misfires in a row, so the chance of a misfire must be 100%!

Freaking dumb.

[123altheman]

If you look at the probabilities, then the chance of this happening or something more extreme is about 1.4 percent. ( I got this by taking the z-score (19/(86 + 19) - 1/8)/( (1/8) (7/8)/105.)^(1/2) )

[123altheman]

Just in case you are interested, if you assume the chance of a misfire is 1/8, then the probability of getting 19 misfires (or more) out of (19+86) fires is about 2%, so while that is a low percentage, it is not too surprising. (to make this calculation, assume the fires are independent and the z score is (19/(86 + 19) - 1/8)/( (1/8) (7/8)/86)^(1/2) ... )

[MaxVlad23]

Krbking 12.5 is 1\8 cance

[kanojoe2000]

oh and i forgot to say, this is NOT a dumb test then. if the test statistic was > 2.0 (didn't do the math, but maybe if there were 25 misfires perhaps), then there WOULD be reason to cast doubt on the 1/8 number. you don't need 10000 samples for a conclusive result, just n*p0 > 10

[srb2Espyo]

Statistics can be a really fun thing. If you perform just one Green Missile and it misfires, you can tell people that it happens 100% of the time!

Of course that's not the truth, but 1/1=1=100% :P

[javidrafiek]

too many burritos!

[KrbKing1]

the chance of a misfire is 12.5%

[A2ZOMG]

Thank you mister obvious.

[ConnorTheKid]

@A2ZOMG

you have 1/8th of a chance to get a misfire. can I be Captain Obvious please? =D

[A2ZOMG]

@ConnorTheKid Fine. You can. Captain Obvious. Just because I know you're awesome.

To everyone else, let me pretend otherwise. =P

[ConnorTheKid]

@A2ZOMG

<3

[A2ZOMG]

I do like angled F-smashes better in Brawl though.

[kemiboy11]

play as luigi in a tiny luigi team its gonna b halrious

[SundarkSoldier]

This looks more fun that a Brawl match.

[A2ZOMG]

I'm glad you like it. I also hope to eventually upload quality Melee footage, as I've been really trying to become decent at this game.

[SonicGirlLightYear]

LUIGI MISSILE

[troidberg]

I know how to unlock this stage but i did target test with evry1

and i didnt unlocked it!!

plz help

[xceis]

Best "wtf" match since wombo combo

[Apotheosis275]

watch more matches plz

[A2ZOMG]

You guys would probably like this video.

v=QhD8Hp3YAXI

[bowservspeach109alt]

I used to do this on Melee out of sheer boredom...

...I haven't played Melee for years come to think of it.... *takes Meele out and starts playing* :P

[nathan9384]

It's a 1:8 chance, not a 1:8 occurrence. And its programmed into the game so there's no point in testing it, unless you just want to have fun and aren't trying to prove anything.

[A2ZOMG]

Obviously that's the point.

Actually what we are trying to prove is that the Misfire is a sentient being that works its wonders in the most appropriate situation. =P

[nathan9384]

Oh I see. I have had my suspicions about that as well. If it is true then I'd say he seems to have a sense of humor about when he chooses to use his powers.

[blacknightzero]

actually i have some friends that have a theory that luigui has more probability to get the misfire if the trajectory of the misfire hits an opponent, given that the misfire has a different trajectory (hits higher than the regular missile), and it has worked for them so much they use it as a regular killing move, and i have to be very cautious of not been hit by it

[LovesToSpoon111]

It says in the description of the the trophy it's like a 12/13.5% chance to misfire.

[sonny102]

white Luigi seemed to be getting them much more commonly than the others :O

[donman72556]

one time i got three in a row

[passiveMenis]

Do more.

[iLuvHinata360]

nice save from green luigi 0:27

[akalic]

this is a dumb test.

it's like saying if i flip a coin two times and they're both heads then tails and heads isn't 50/50.

do 10000 of these and i bet you'll see the 1/8 :)

[kanojoe2000]

@akalic actually that's not how it works. as far as sample sizes go for a z-test, n*p0 > 10 is the cut-off for being appropriate. 105 as a sample size, thus, should be more than sufficient, at least to not see as big as a disparity between 1/8 and 19/105. the test statistic = (p^ - p0)/root((p0)(1-p0)/n) which in this case = 1.4892803. the chance of this happening is thus 6.8%. unusual, but not conclusive proof. just wanted to set the record str8 for those who don't understand sample size

[alcbot]

xD i fought once against one and i was already death and the right side of fd and then he decided to do an side b of luigi cuz hi thought if now comes and misfire it would be awesome xD and it comes hit me and gave me the fnisher blow xDDDDDD

" If I didn't know any better, the misfire is a sentient being that works when the situation will be most awesome. XD "

xDDDDDD i think your right rofl

[A2ZOMG]

As a matter of a fact, this video is OH SO SERIOUS BUSINESS.

You get a life and laugh at it. I counted the misfires just for fun.

[mistermoo564]

Erm...for the record, misfires do have exactly a 1/8 chance of happening. It says so in the text accompanying one of the Luigi trophies XD

Nice experiment though, good results ^.^

[SukiYan2002]

I analyzed your data, and come to this conclusion:

On a 95% confidence level your data deviates from the actual (which is 1/10, I believe) enough that there is suspicion that the actual mean is not 1/10

However, on a 99% confidence level, that conclusion does not hold up. On this confidence level, your data does not deviate enough from the true value.

[Ch3fKirby]

ENGLESH PLEASE!!

[traqueofziche]

take statistics

[waffle12996]

Wait.....which ones are misfires?

The ones that shoot really far?

Or the ones that are like duds?

Im confused =P

[A2ZOMG]

The misfire is when Luigi EXPLODES.

[waffle12996]

:D oh okay

[iLuvHinata360]

u mean like the green luigi here... 0:44 ??

[DarkestDion]

Epic match

Luigi are flying like spaghetti

[beenman500]

what you didn't see was that one of the luigis was replaced by a gorrila for half the film...

[grimlion15]

lol

[manLiMarth]

I always figured it was something like

initially, 1/8 chance of misfire. However, if the previous forward+b was a misfire, the next one has a 1/4 chance, and it caps off there. I don't know if it goes to 1/2. Having this in mind as I played, it seems to make sense, and perhaps would account for a greater than 12.5% theoretical probability. Note also that the given sample size wasn't at all too great. 1000 luigis doing it would be more accurate and plain cooler =D

[geraldtpokemon]

lol at first i was like wtf y are the luigi not grabbing the ledge then i forgot about the recovery move

[kayofsea]

The most consecutive misfires I've seen is 6. The match was a teams match, and it was friendly. My friend who got them had his 4th misfire send him flying off the stage, then the 5th brought him back (He wouldn't have been able to make it back to the stage if he hadn't gotten another misfire). Then the last one got the last kill, he got it while recovering once again... yeah... this really happened. It was outrageous, everyone was screaming and laughing so hard, it was ridiculous!

[thekatz35]

@kayofsea 1/8^6, thats pretty lucky and awesome

[sehwut]

man it is so weird how bad luigi's recovery in melee was and how awesome it can be in brawl.

[A2ZOMG]

The Brawl misfire sucks though. It's too slow, and doesn't look nearly as epic. =(

Flamin' Luigi ftw.

This makes me want to get good at Melee. Too bad my area is such a ****ing competitive deadzone.

[DaMattGuy]

I feel your pain (in a deadzone). All I have to do to clear a room is mention SSBB. D:<

[nagiangnatsume]

i am the opposite. I am best in the city at a young age. my friends say i suck even though i beat them badly in under 3 minutes.

[theFordFalco]

i doubt ur the best lol

[Shaeman111]

ugh

fight the power

create a competitive scene!

[vatipaa]

nice dodge 1:40

[Krishna227]

I figure 13.4%

[nameguy101]

1:37 - 1:47 green luigi wavedashing

[hekussu]

*sigh* the statistic is only valid when referring to a single luigi. the game is simply programmed to "roll an 8 sided di" and if it lands on the right "side" its a "misfire."

that being said, it is possible (though not probable) for the game to "roll the same side" 8 times in a row, resulting in 8 misfires in a row.

[manLiMarth]

Given, but the way this is phrased, it's almost as though you're saying that having additional luigis around changes the individual probability of a misfire. Unless the designers went out of their way to do this, it doesn't make sense. Does flipping 20 coins right next to each other make the individual probability of a tails on a given coin roughly 50%?

The probability of 8 misfires in a row, if constant (1/8) chance, is (1/8)^8 which is pretty... shabby. What were you addressing? Confused =O

[Sharkbait4993]

DeadS had a hell load of misfires

[Morflathen]

this is funny to watch. Im gonna go make a stage in Brawl dedicated to this.

[Skarlath60]

nice at 1:11 =P

[Narxbond9]

lol that was a fun time. we need to do another one real soon. haha

[mxpxorsist]

Now count them per character