Richard Heinberg's Peak Everything - Part 4

[numbnuts234567]

After three and one half years there have been 10,255 views of part 4. That shows how many people are aware and interested in confronting the truth about the future.

[1981busch]

Peak oil, well lets put it this way. Peak Oil adds another large factor to the Drake Equation, one that earth, coincidentally, does not likely meet.

[Drewdoggg1]

the top elites have an amazing plan to stop this whole population overgrowth problem, and over consuming, it's called "global genocide"

[SuperDickweed]

One of the great things oil has made possible is dropping a great big stinking load on top of another great big stinking load that some other guy left unflushed. You know some poor bastard is going to have to unclog that toilet and you're just glad it's not you. So you throw your last wipe on top of the fetid turd you've left and dispatch one last fart, sigh and buckle up feeling like a new man. Thank God for gas station bathrooms!

[matchbox555]

richard heinberg is a little weasal evil fascist

[gcfc]

you're ignant

[nwoebcke]

It is so easy for people living in a fossil fuel based society to live in denial that this lifestyle is FINITE and that the end is closer than they are willing to accept. Sometimes things just die, like your perception of reality, for example.

[TheMetalPerson]

I think people will be in denial even after the peaks occur.. and they'll still call you 'green'...

I don't understand why I'm called green just because i think exponential growth is unsustainable. I'm a pretty selfish person.

[matchbox555]

this guy is full of shit, he is making money selling books to stupid jackasses.

he needs to look up:

nuclear power

water desalination

nano solar cells

electric cars

coal liquifaction

nanotechnology

nuclear fusion

etc etc etc

[seanlbrennan]

nuclear power: requires uranium, a non-renewable resource that is subject to the same peak and decline.

Water desalination: requires a large amount of energy..

Nano Solar Cells: built using copper and gallium- lack of resources.

Electric cars- would need 750 new Nuclear Plants just for the US.

Coal Liquification: coal could peak in less than 20 years on current usage, let alone trying to replace oil.

Nuclear Fusion: might be a solution, if we can invent it in time.

[matchbox555]

wrong on every count

[matchbox555]

uranium wont run out for hundreds of years

nano solar cells can be made from graphene (carbon to non scientists like you)

coal wont peak for hundreds of years

wish i knew where you get your stupid estimations from

sorry to dissapoint you end time green wackos but modern civilization isnt going anywhere

[seanlbrennan]

The World Nuclear Association (WNA) says that we have 5.5 million tonnes of uranium, a current production at about 51k, and an annual growth projection of 2.4%(WNA). Using excel, based on these numbers, my estimate is that we will be out in 2060.

Using ENA's (european nuclear association) estimate of 3.3 million it will be in 2045 (again using excel). Don't take my word for it....research yourself.

Of course, I am willing to change this based on new information, ie: workable fusion plants.

[matchbox555]

fusion is coming

[TheMetalPerson]

why would we need fusion when you think

1) uranium won't run out for hundreds of years

2) you had nothing to say about desalination.

3) you can just surround your house with carbon for a free lunch

4) electric cars don't require energy

5) liquefying coal gives it more energy

6) nanoscale technology generates more energy than it produces.

You say you have a scientific background, matchbox555? Why bother with fusion when you have these limitless GROWING supplies of energy?

[gcfc]

"4) electric cars don't require energy"

you're ignant

[TheMetalPerson]

sarcasm

[matchbox555]

look up throrium reactors

india has massive reserves of thorium

so does australia

[linghun]

@seanlbrennan There are also breeder reactors, which create fissionable material and are far more likely to work in the near future than fusion

[seanlbrennan]

Germany commissioned a study a few years ago stating that peak coal will occur in 20 years. They have since announced they will close all their coal plants.

Also, look up David Rutledge, who has estimated that there is less than half of the proven reserves.

OR just look up peak coal in wikipedia.

Or a simple analysis of the 4 types of coal helps too. We have already used most of the anthracite (most energy per ton) and are now mining the liginte (a lot less energy per ton) to replace it.

[matchbox555]

hahaha

look up how much coal the u.s has

coal isnt peaking for hundreds of years

not to mention massive amounts fo shale oil in u.s and canada

[TheMetalPerson]

please make a citation on this. Coal would last for hundreds of years at this current rate of production. Assuming this production increases at the traditional rate of 7% per year, we won't come close to this estimate. It will be more like 30-50 years.

You may be thinking "we'll simply stop producing increase of 7% per year! we won't run out!". EXACTLY!! When production increases reach 0% per year, that will be peak coal... I think you are confusing terms to be in denial.

[seanlbrennan]

I looked up nano solar cells from graphene and couldn't find any current mass production methods that are commercially available. So the only argument here is timing. Optimists say that we will figure it out in time, pessimists says we won't. I say we don't know, so lets plan accordingly, changing the plan with new information.

PS- I'm not an 'end time green wacko' but someone who is concerned that modern civ won't be here for my children and grandchildren based on current growth projections.

[miiiikku]

Probably most scariest thing is that we want government to solve these problems. We should rather use power of free market, then at least we would have a shot. Less regulation, less taxes, more free and fair trade.

[bobbygnosis]

The New Deal only happened because a fascist coup failed (Business Plot). His "Scenario 1" seems more likely if you read what's going on. His idea that it would devolve sounds reasonable, I suppose. Still, those FEMA camps, if you think about it, sound like they might gear up for a nasty decade or so as peak oil happens.

This might be a very interesting time to be alive.

[fourplusseven]

"Somehow we're going to have to relocate everybody...."

A top-down, government-led effort that deals with the problem in a rational manner?

Dream on.

The change happens from below; governments will melt down. They'll want to 'protect what they have' even if it kills them -- it might.

Anyone reading this can re-skill and you will probably enjoy the transition if you're ahead of the curve. The others still hypnotized by old culture, I hold out less hope for. It will get a little bitter.

[elfboi523]

I think that Homo sapiens will survive as a species - but our civilisation will not survive. All we can do now is sow the seeds for a new civilisation and hope for the best.

[fourplusseven]

I agree except for the 'hope' part; we still can take a lot of personal action. But yes you are right.

[moreaudan]

Both Afghanistan and Iraq have suffered unconscionable civilian deaths and damage to housing, infrastructure and environment. Iraq is afflicted with depleted uranium and open sewers.

[cds10690]

we had better start making a change

the world is going to change no matter what we do.. we as a people need to change

[fourplusseven]

Agree. We can start right now -- no need to wait.

[adamdm87]

I kinda like the sounds of the "eco-deal" around thr 6:00 mark. What do folks think: realistic?

[napornik]

i hope so....

[UnderseaCaveman]

I am Heinberg fan, but I think "the bottoms-up" society by its Nature of "being local" would not have Global Issues to deal with! Things only "Go Global" due to large Central Gov .. and bad "Grand Planning" by such!

[fourplusseven]

I agree.