Risk of China's Bubble

[pinoko1311]

are chinese really considering the maintenance costs of infrastructure?

[herbs814]

China's "infrastructure" economy has wastefully built enough empty real estate for 200 million people that can never be filled. A China collapse in inevitable. But the 2010 China collapse, as massive as it will be, will be just the beginning. Over the next 10 to 20 years, China's economy will only suffer worse contractions.

[RakeBone]

that blond is a hottie

[sfsTrader]

sounds like people have made their money in chinese real estate. now lending will tighten to slow things down and give the smart people a chance to sell for profits. then prices will collapse and all the dumb people will take the hit.

get ready to short chinese real estate

[herbs814]

@sfsTrader

not sure you can short chinese real estate because of their restrictive investment laws, but you can short copper and other building materials.

[sfsTrader]

@herbs814 yeah with china they are still pretend to be communists and so some things are hard to do or dont make sense. but however u do it, profit from their real estate prices hitting a plateau and dropping.

[lastmohicanfromchina]

check the time, she is great! she is right .!china will die with the burst of real estate bubble

[Powa2]

Their economy is not a bubble based speculative economy of Japan in the 80s or ours of 90s. Their growth is centered on infrastructure, real estate, exports and transition of labour. They also have a strong central bank that just cut lending to avoid speculation. It is very doubtful that their economy will crash like ours, that's unless they make their markets lassez-faire which is also doubtful.

[herbs814]

China's economy is most certainly an unsustainable bubble of debt. All of the "infrastructure" and "real estate" has been built by MASSIVE amounts of debt (to Chinese banks and the "strong" central bank). It is precisely the reliance on a central bank that makes China's economic collapse INEVITABLE.

see GrantsPub(dot)com/china

[herbs814]

Jan 7, 2010 0133 EST WSJ

China Raises Key Interbank Rate

China is recognizing that their domestic debt burdens (inflation) is becoming excessive. The excessive credit creation that produced China's illusion of prosperity is becoming more of a concern to the central bank. Higher rates (tighter credit) will restrict Chinese growth in order to keep inflation (and debt) in check.

[stealthpakfa]

anyone quoting anything from the WSJ has no credibility.

without china's rise india will still be in decline.

india depends heavily on china.

as does the US.

so without china, the world is fucked.

[herbs814]

China is a disaster waiting to happen. The world will be stronger without the disastrous, wasteful central planning of the Chinese.

[Powa2]

Really? They are our debitors, manufacturers, and dump where everything we don't want gets transported to. In our economic climate, it seems unlikely that any American today would want to pay more for their manufactured goods or want to repay their growing debts.

[herbs814]

Since you're biased against the WSJ, here's the NYT:

"Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China"

China is "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse"

"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses...

and there's no bigger credit excess than in China."

[stealthpakfa]

WSJ and NYT are the same. promtes hate speech.

and ur referring to jim chanos.

this guy chanos has been an anti-sino since the 1970's.

listening to jim chanos is like lisening to adolf hitler. hitler hated the jews, chanos hates the chinese.

if china collapses, then the enitre planet will collapse because the whole world depends on china.

if china sneezes, america and the world gets pneumonia.

as goes china, sp does the rest of the world.

[herbs814]

There is no such thing as anti-sino prejudice. You are delusional.

And when China collapses (nor if, but when), China will sell of its assets at fire-sale prices to pay its debts. China's collapse will be a blessing to the world.

[stealthpakfa]

there is no point arguing with a gimp like u because u are a anti-sino hater.

[mathpianist93]

@herbs814: LIES. YOU are the delusional one in claiming you have no anti-Sino prejudice. 'China's collapse will be a blessing to the world' shows that

[stealthpakfa]

if china collapses, the entire world will collapse.

the entire planet depends on china.

these doom and gloom people have been saying china is a bubble, but its never come true.

[herbs814]

no, when China collapse... India rises up and Japan becomes resurgent and the US will recover and Australia/New Zealand will be stronger. China is simply rising at a time when many of its competitors are in a transient decline... or not yet emerging to prominence. In another decade, developed "western" economies (other than Europe) will rebound and other less developed competitors will have arisen. China is NOT irreplacable. China is a voracious consumer. world will be stronger when China slides

[stealthpakfa]

without china the entire world economy is finished.

if china sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold.

only due to chinas growth has it propped up the world economy.

without china this is the 2nd depression easily.

absolutely no question about it.

[herbs814]

China is certainly not irreplaceable. China will inevitably suffer a collapse within a decade or so. There is no way it could be otherwise. China had already sealed its fate with its one-child policy. It is not a matter of if China will collapse, only when.

[herbs814]

When China collapses, India will have a more prosperous population with greater engineering and IT capability. Within a decade, India and a resurgent Japan and a rebounding US will render mainland China to secondary status. Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan may still be strong, but the mainland is due to decline by +/- 2020.

[dadecountyhustler305]

I think it's impossible for a country to grow 10%+ for 20 years straight not to have a bubble burst...

Its just impossible. It will but when?

[stealthpakfa]

what bubble?

where is the bubble?

its jealousy of chinas rise, its nothing to do with economics.

its pure anti-sino hate.

[herbs814]

China's economy is an illusion, a house of cards built upon debt that is fundamentally unsustainable. China's economy will strongly contract within a decade (circa year 2020). Just look at the population demographics, particularly the peak spending age (around 45-50).. it is inevitable.

grantspub (dot) com/china

China 2010 is headed for a banking crisis just like the Savings and Loan bubble of 20 years ago. Unless China tightens credit (slowing growth) and repays debt, the bubble will burst.

[jerthemessiah]

maybe in 3 years

[klntong]

The possibilty is low at this moment.

[QIQrrr]

China is doing just fine.

watch?v=yFk8Mt2HULg

[herbs814]

The China bubble will bust in the next decade. China's boom is getting to its final years. Look to Asia (including a resurgent Japan) and India to replace China in the next +/-10 years.

[QIQrrr]

You're wrong.

[stealthpakfa]

what bubble?

where is the bubble?

its jealousy of chinas rise, its nothing to do with economics.

its pure anti-sino hate.

[tacotony24]

@stealthpakfa

just ignore these jealous bastards

It's funny most or none of these gloom and doom soothsayers would give a time frame when China will economically collapse. It's always "in the future," or "possibly in these so and so years."

Some Chinese tycoon should challenge this crackpot cheerleader Jim Chanos and bet a massive amount of money about his doom and gloom "prediction" about China and see if he goes for it.

[stealthpakfa]

lol yea i agree with u

[mathpianist93]

@herbs814: you contradict yourself at times, and on many terms. 'sealed its fate with the one child policy'. well isn't the Japanese populace partially to blame for their declining birthrate? they will NOT be resurgent with this current demographic risk.

China has been ascending since the 1980s, long before Bush II's and Obama's policies set the US on a possibly inevitable collapse. and Americans surely treasure the 1990s

[herbs814]

@mathpianist93

You're confusing current birth rates with past birth rates. From 1955 to 1975, Japan's birth rates increased about 35%. (not until later did Japan's birth rates decline.) Developed nations are most productive (highest production, earning, spending, investment, ownership) around 45-50 YO. Do the math. Japan should be increasing in economic strength roughly 2005-2025.

China's 1980 policy will dramatically HARM China by 2025. Look for a sudden collapse because of one child policy