Re: The Monty Hall Paradox

[jediforcecny]

What?!!!! Please join my weekly poker game. We're in need of another easy out.

[frazzzer8888]

This is so simple. I think the poor guy donig the video may have overthought it completely. You still have to stick with what you did.

Even if you changed it and took back your ace and happened to pair it up, ONE PAIR is virtually never going to be the best hand out of 8 players in the game.

Yes, you'll miss the flush almost every time but it's IRRELEVANT. You still have to try. The flush is your only chance to WIN against this number of opponents.

[CousinoMacul]

I think I see what you're saying.

So going for the flush would be like (forgive the football analogies) an onside kick or going for it on 4th and long: a low probability play, but you do it anyway if it's your only shot at winning.

That makes sense.

[notengoamigos]

SHUT UP IDIOT!

[bezvezeceda]

Poker has nothing to do with strength of the hand.

[bicnarok]

This it totally wrong, either you pick the right one or not, chances have NOTHING to do with it. This shows what rubbish quantum physics is.

[ellimist10]

what the heck this has nothing to so with quantum physics

[Goldiney]

Quantum Physics is rubbish? Wow...

[fullzombie]

To answer the "do you change your mind" question: no. If you discard the ace and then you should recant (since you now have a 75% chance of weakening your hand by discarding it). If you discarded the 2 then, you have actually got a better chance (30%, was 25%) of improving your hand now by staying with your original discard. Your chance of a flush has dropped to 5%.

[fullzombie]

9 of the remaining cards are clubs. 12 cards in the deck could get you a pair. So if you discard the ace, you have a 44% chance of improving your hand, and a 56% chance of weakening it. Discarding the 2 gives you a 25% chance of gaining a pair of something, and no chance of weakening your hand (the worst card you could get would be another 2), and you have a 93% chance of getting a 3 or better and improving your hand.

[fullzombie]

Sorry, my original math was off. You have a 44% chance of improving, a 48% chance of weakening, and a 6% chance of staying the same. These numbers were all rounded down, so may be off by a percentage point each.

[Prepoceros]

Ooh, I like your game. It's very different from the MHP on the face of it, but it has the same underlying reasoning.

Like websnarf said, the actual probabilities here are tough to work out, but I think someone who was confused about the MHP could watch this video, get a good "gut feel" for wanting to switch after all that new information, and then see the analogous reasoning behind the solution to the MHP.

[websnarf]

Poker is a complicated game. Dropping the Ace leads to a 35% chance of pairing or flushing your hand on the draw. Dropping the 2 leads to a 32.5% chance of pairing but with lots of A kicker advantages. I suspect throwing away the A is still best, but the math is actually quite complicated, because you have to take into account expected opponent hands to know what distribution of hands you need to beat.