Dear Al Ries, this time YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG about iPhone... thas IS A SUCCESFUL PRODUCT! Your predicton this time was a terrible mistake! I LOVE MY IPHONE, SO DO MILLION OF PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD!
Update... 2 years later... April 2011. Apple released 2011 Q1 results. iPhone brings in 50% of Apple revenue, which incidentally their Q1 revenue is $24.6 billion. mediosbasura, it's time to concede that you (and Al Ries) were dead wrong about the prospect of the iPhone.
I have been carrying a little swiss army knife in my pocket for over 20 years, and use it daily. Several people have commented "wow I have never seen anybody actually ever use one of those". LOL! Excellent point!
Apple released its 4th quarter results today. Quick summary:
1. 10m iPhones goal reached - one quarter ahead of schedule.
2. iPhone surpassed RIM (#1 smart phone) in unit sales this quarter.
3. Apple now the 3rd largest mobile phone supplier in terms of revenue.
Buried in a answer to analysts, but notable to those who recognize it, Jobs said "iPhone is a software platform". Sounds innocuous, but what it means: Its about the apps; not convergence of functions. He's creating a category.
The more I think about this, the more I suspect that convergence is moot. The examples that Al sites as evidence of a rule that "convergence fails", could just as easily be due to another factor.
Isn't it worth considering the possibility that failure of these examples could be due to the products not offering anything of value to the market? If the product was conceived without foundation in what the market was craving - then the products would fail, but convergence would be coincidental.
He may indeed bmaiabhe. I'll grant you that. But you have to admit, at least so far (the short run) the iPhone does seem to be breaking those rules.
IMHO, the device has begun to create a new category (or redefine the "smart phone" category) as something more to do with portable internet access. I think its becoming more about those apps than it is about phones. But that's just my view. Apple's fortunes could change any time and my notions washed down the drain. Time will tell.
Bold predictions. So far the numbers don't agree with you Al.
I think iPhone is a new category - and that category has little to do with telephones. Think about that phrase they keep repeating: "The internet in your pocket". Convenience-providing, net-centric applications (a real browser, google maps, iChat-style SMS, video-chat, etc) will become the meaning behind "internet in your pocket". "iPhone" just happens to be the name they're putting on it.
Hm... yes, and they have an even slimmer share of the electronics market!
I'm not sure where you get your data, or that it even matters. The iPhone is part of the "smart phone" market segment. And according to Canalys, as of Q4 2007 Apple attained 28% of the USA smart phone market share (and about 6.5% of the world-wide market). Not bad for only months in the marketplace.
Yes, I know you quote the broader mobile phone market. My point is that the mobile phone market has been segmented, and the segment that matters to apple is the smart phone segment. And so far they've been wildly successful.
It seems to me that open claims that "in the long run, the product will fail" are a somewhat safe and benign, since you offer no time frame and eventually all products dry up.
Would you care to put a time frame on your prediction?
i can't put a time frame on my prediction because i'm not a wizard, but the history shows products and brands that in the short term were successful but failed in the long term.
Considering the sales numbers for the iPhone have it 2nd place (only to RIM) and climbing, I'd say You may have missed the mark on this prediction. But its early yet.
I think that iPhone is a new category, and the category is not about telephones. Think about the phrase they keep saying: "the internet in your pocket". I think THAT will become the category - iPhone will just be the label they put on it.
Dear Al Ries, this time YOU ARE TOTALLY WRONG about iPhone... thas IS A SUCCESFUL PRODUCT! Your predicton this time was a terrible mistake! I LOVE MY IPHONE, SO DO MILLION OF PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD!
fertrev 2 months ago
Update... 2 years later... April 2011. Apple released 2011 Q1 results. iPhone brings in 50% of Apple revenue, which incidentally their Q1 revenue is $24.6 billion. mediosbasura, it's time to concede that you (and Al Ries) were dead wrong about the prospect of the iPhone.
timsnyder1000 10 months ago
I have been carrying a little swiss army knife in my pocket for over 20 years, and use it daily. Several people have commented "wow I have never seen anybody actually ever use one of those". LOL! Excellent point!
SoapAcademy 2 years ago
#fail!
rafaelhsouza 2 years ago
Apple released its 4th quarter results today. Quick summary:
1. 10m iPhones goal reached - one quarter ahead of schedule.
2. iPhone surpassed RIM (#1 smart phone) in unit sales this quarter.
3. Apple now the 3rd largest mobile phone supplier in terms of revenue.
Buried in a answer to analysts, but notable to those who recognize it, Jobs said "iPhone is a software platform". Sounds innocuous, but what it means: Its about the apps; not convergence of functions. He's creating a category.
timsnyder 3 years ago
The more I think about this, the more I suspect that convergence is moot. The examples that Al sites as evidence of a rule that "convergence fails", could just as easily be due to another factor.
Isn't it worth considering the possibility that failure of these examples could be due to the products not offering anything of value to the market? If the product was conceived without foundation in what the market was craving - then the products would fail, but convergence would be coincidental.
timsnyder 3 years ago
I dont think so.
The most successful productos and brands convergences:
- ipod
- starbucks coffee
- google
- ebay
And thousands of more examples.
mediosbasura 3 years ago
so wrong on his prediction, I believe he already purchased an iPhone
fashmac 3 years ago
not really, iphone has only the 1% of the mobil phone market in USA.That's a failure for apple.
mediosbasura 3 years ago
I dunno, I think he may end up being right on the long run.
bmaiabhe 3 years ago
He may indeed bmaiabhe. I'll grant you that. But you have to admit, at least so far (the short run) the iPhone does seem to be breaking those rules.
IMHO, the device has begun to create a new category (or redefine the "smart phone" category) as something more to do with portable internet access. I think its becoming more about those apps than it is about phones. But that's just my view. Apple's fortunes could change any time and my notions washed down the drain. Time will tell.
timsnyder 3 years ago
Bold predictions. So far the numbers don't agree with you Al.
I think iPhone is a new category - and that category has little to do with telephones. Think about that phrase they keep repeating: "The internet in your pocket". Convenience-providing, net-centric applications (a real browser, google maps, iChat-style SMS, video-chat, etc) will become the meaning behind "internet in your pocket". "iPhone" just happens to be the name they're putting on it.
timsnyder 3 years ago
Wrong.
Iphone only has que 1% of the mobil phone market in USa.
mediosbasura 3 years ago
mediosbasura
Hm... yes, and they have an even slimmer share of the electronics market!
I'm not sure where you get your data, or that it even matters. The iPhone is part of the "smart phone" market segment. And according to Canalys, as of Q4 2007 Apple attained 28% of the USA smart phone market share (and about 6.5% of the world-wide market). Not bad for only months in the marketplace.
I'm sure they're distraught over their "failure".
timsnyder 3 years ago
i'm not talking of the smart phone segment, but the regular mobil phone segment, where apple has only the 1%.
the results you show of this smart phone is in the short term, most of this kind of divergence products have success in this period of time.
Let see what would happen in the long term.
mediosbasura 3 years ago
Yes, I know you quote the broader mobile phone market. My point is that the mobile phone market has been segmented, and the segment that matters to apple is the smart phone segment. And so far they've been wildly successful.
It seems to me that open claims that "in the long run, the product will fail" are a somewhat safe and benign, since you offer no time frame and eventually all products dry up.
Would you care to put a time frame on your prediction?
timsnyder 3 years ago
We are talking about the long term.
i can't put a time frame on my prediction because i'm not a wizard, but the history shows products and brands that in the short term were successful but failed in the long term.
mediosbasura 3 years ago
All rules have their exceptions - even yours.
Considering the sales numbers for the iPhone have it 2nd place (only to RIM) and climbing, I'd say You may have missed the mark on this prediction. But its early yet.
I think that iPhone is a new category, and the category is not about telephones. Think about the phrase they keep saying: "the internet in your pocket". I think THAT will become the category - iPhone will just be the label they put on it.
timsnyder 3 years ago
no, because the name of this item is Iphone, no Inet, so it not would be considered as an "internet in your pocket"
mediosbasura 3 years ago
Distracting silliness.
Actually, I always use my RELEVANT Swiss Army knife.
About those iPhone sales figures...
AdmiralPiglet 4 years ago