1976 Hubbert Clip

[redcoltken]

Light Sweet crude peaked in 2005, all flowing crude peaked in 2008, and unconventional crude is peaking now. In the age of slide rulers and pencils M King Hubbert was off only by 2 years or so and that can be explained by the conservation efforts the United States implemented in the Nixon/Carter years.

The man was spot on!

[prod1gy3000]

I've been studying on peak oil for a few years now and this is the first time I've seen Hubbert speak.

My mind = blown

[boogyshoes20]

Hmmm...Can anyone say "exponential growth in the exploitation of a finite source"!?

[TBonePickensetc]

Hubbert the main editor of the Technocracy Study Course. The largest, fastest growing social movement in the U.S. and Canada in the early 1930's. Then it was shut down virtually by the Hearst Corporation and New York Times and other mainstream media outlets. Now it returns with the internet as an archive of historic precedent of biophysical economics or thermoeconomics.

Energy accounting. Google Technocracy Study Course.

[fdh2006]

I'm sure much oil has been discovered since then, new oil extracting technology developed, and more efficient machines that use oil.

[highrollin2]

"It's the most disturbing thing that's ever happened to the human species, it's responsible for our technological society... and in terms of human history, it's a very brief epoch."

This could be one of the most important quotes of our time. If only more people actually understood it.

On a completely unrated subject, I really want a Blackberry Playbook!

[fateswarm1]

Mind blowing how few people realize what's REALLY going in the world today is this.

[gogbat]

I wish more people like were in the Government!

[MrEnergyCzar]

The King was right....I wonder why they don't teach him in school?

[Steadno]

thats oil folks

[langsidedrive]

Thank you for this film. I have read of M King Hubbert, but never heard him speak.

This is one very big message! All the best to you gunsight04. The only resource that is limitless is stupidity. Bon voyage.

[88carlos88]

errr gunsight04... were all waiting for your retort..

[newb2yutube]

@88carlos88 I'm not sure what Happened but my account mysteriously got hacked and deleted after this argument. I never make it a habit to argue on Youtube but apparently gunsight deleted his account. I just barely recovered my account, unfortunately all my videos are gone now. :( Including a hubbert clip.

[vdubs4life1964]

that spike looks like a obelisk.

[gunsight04]

It's kind of funny how back in and before the 20th century, people kept predicting that oil will run out in 12 years after a sharp increase in production each time. The planet is vast and large areas haven't been explored or exploited yet. Science has kept up with humanity and new methods and progresses will hopefully ensure our continued existence.

In other words, stop being Malthusians and get on with life.

[newb2yutube]

@gunsight04 It's kind of funny how stupid you sound. Who ever said oil will "run out". I laughed really hard at your comment, thanks for that at least. It's not that hard to understand peak oil. It's about energy gained on investment. Investment being energy transformation itself, not money. Also, energy in general is a major concern in the near future, denying these facts is pretty retarded.

In other words, stop being a moron, stick your head out your ass and actually understand the issue.

[newb2yutube]

@gunsight04 I admire your optimism in science and humanity though. On the other hand, there are no clear answers in the near future, or even 50 years from now. Maybe a few things but there is still availability and distribution issues(i.e. new infrastructure). Next time you make a comment, get your facts and shit straight and don't be a jackass.

[gunsight04]

@newb2yutube

Malthusians. Oh, you kill me! Every one of you! Before you call people 'jackasses' you should at least look from their point of view. We live in an era like Malthus did in his days where the only resources were some kinds of metals, animals and plants and maybe limited kinds of fuels. The guy would have a stroke if he was brought to this era and saw that a country like China can lift millions of it's citizens out of poverty in less than a century.

[gunsight04]

@newb2yutube

I'm not done yet, however. We are back to the beginning of Malthus' pessimistic way of thinking. Oil is a limited resource, yes, but there will be alternatives. There are always alternatives when society changes and learns to adapt to different things. Uranium and the ocean itself are an example. And you're a mad man if you think water, the most renewable energy source in the planet, will ever run out. I'll leave you to your pessimism.

[newb2yutube]

@gunsight04

Yeah, your not done expressing more of your stupidity. Did you even try to understand what I was pointing out to you? You are really that much of a dumbass to not understand the simplest of concepts? You also don't know shit about Malthus. Here is an excerpt from wiki....

"Malthus himself did not write that mankind faced an inevitable future catastrophe. Rather, he offered an evolutionary social theory of population dynamics as it had acted steadily throughout all previous history"

[newb2yutube]

@gunsight04

Who said society won't change and adapt for the better? We "Malthusians", as you put it, want that change. We are simply pointing out the dangers if nothing is changed. Also, expecting things to change solely on faith is pretty stupid. What future technology are you banking on? Uraniums Net energy gains isn't enough to satisfy our current needs. You have been brainwashed by some perverted view of reality my friend. Remember all this shit is about Net energy gains.

[newb2yutube]

@gunsight04

Your water reference is pretty funny. You realize we have potable water issues? Our fresh water resources are dwindling and in need of technology that can transfer salt water to fresh water. This is a big problem because of...you guessed it, you need a lot of energy to transfer it.

Also, peak oil is about net energy gain, if you can't understand that simple concept, there is no hope for you.

[MetusModus]

And you all thought he was nuts! It's a shame humanity has to completely ruin the Earth in order to find out the persimists were right all along.

[kikrlbs]

That dude is one smart son of a bitch! Exactly on the money, wow!

[kristianpagh]

@foringjar612 Your assumption is incorrect. This was widely disseminated, e.g. in this video made by the US government; search for: "Yergin and Hubbert on the same side US Govt video 1979"

[danzigstorer]

Indeed, he got it right. Global production has been on a plateau since 2005.

[MrEnergyCzar]

this should be taught in every high school...

[cheaptalk100]

i read a few books on this topic.what Hubbert is talking about is true.people just ignore him and think we will always have abundance of fuel resources.global population growth is one of the main factor in world wide fuel crisis.

[TheProphetNabob]

It just amazes me --

This man should be a national scientific hero, on a par with J. Robert Oppenheimer, Linus Pauling, even Albert Einstein.

In addition to important findings in geophysics, he issued a scathing critique of economics-as-usual, arguing instead for an energy accounting system.

Then there's peak oil. His prediction about US oil production remains unsurpassed.

But we chose to ignore him, and now it's too late.

[saqipak]

May be his theory is correct but where the other sources of energy shall go? like solar energy, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, wind energy may be in coming times we discover more and more sources of energy till the last day.

[nextlifeguitarist]

the peak is here and we have no time to develop other energy sources, we wiil see the davastating aspects of the peak in 2015, but right now this crisis is a sympthom (financial crisis is a bullshit).

The hubbert theory is already been tested on american oil field. In the 50s he said 1970 will be the peak year for USA, and he was right, Before USA exported oil, now USA are importing more than 85% if i am right..so be prepared for petrocalypse!

[terran97]

kind of depressing that this vid only got so few hits.

You'd think that the end game of a resource usage which governs our lifestyle would provoke a fear response...

[magicalpoop]

he was correct in a lot of it, but current day reports say adverse effects won't happen until 2050 and various reports say the wells won't go "Dry" until 2100 or so.

The US is already going ahead on trying to get off oil (due to depedency on OPEC nations)

Not much to fear really. Suburbs will become slums, people will move into cities, not everyone will own a car.

Not that big of a deal, look at present day Japan.

[mollytherealdeal]

The trouble is not when we go "dry"; it is when we max out. Peak Oil may have happened in 2008, or will happen in the near future. We need growing oil supplies, for a growing economy. We could have a economic crisis leading to a political crisis.

The US tried to get off oil, but then Big Oil and OPEC destroyed "energy independence" with cheap oil. We are more addicted to oil now than in the 70's. Very few electric cars or tractors exists. How will we get to work or grow food?

[CandianBear]

i don't think you understand that our wealth in which makes life in cities possible and the energy to move vast quantities of goods and materials into those cities all depend upon the energy contained within the fossil fuel hydrocarbon- 1 kg of diesel has 38mj! No alternative energy source can match this power density- it's also very easy to transport in liquid form, and lastly , it's critical to the production of FOOD! So your casual response shows a lack of understanding of the issues we face

[magicalpoop]

. I did a project on the hubbert peak and examined various 2nd/3rd party modern interpretations of the Hubbert Peak - everyone has their own estimates.

So what if 1kg of diesel has 38mj? South America uses ethanol..you don't see them begging for fossil fuels. Actually yes I fully understand the reality that alternative energies lack the power output versus : density ratios.

But thats irrelevant because its an underdeveloped technology. Yes Hydrogen requires 4X the volume to output the same

[magicalpoop]

energy output. But now automobile technologies like brakes which harness the kinetic/thermal energy in the stopping motion, smarter automatic transmissions which can also act like most manuals in how they have a fuel cutoff are JUST appearing. We've had automobilees for more than a century now and NOW such simple things come into place?

Once the private sector has the reason to pursue such technologies, they will do so.

The Train and mass rapid transport can subsidize the need for cars.

[TheProphetNabob]

"Wells going dry" is the LEAST of our problems.

It's the rate and the cost that matter.

How quickly will the oil flow? How much will it cost to maintain that flow?

This is our undoing.

[stuartm990]

@terran97 few people care, because its not main sream news. Peak oil will be main news when the gas pumps are empty

[hoagly]

A lot of people don't know who this guy is. That's why this video got so few hits. If it was titled "Peak Oil" I would see your point. That, and the obvious reason, which is that people would rather watch music videos and Youtube celebs mentally masturbate than watch educational important videos.

[nextlifeguitarist]

yeah.....people prefer to put the head in the sand....it will be a terrible wake up

[faolitaruna]

I don't know he was optimistic or pessimistic. 40 billions barrels per year?

[florgat91]

it now appears that peak oil is sensational myth - oil, like God, is forever ..

[abriedewet]

If you believe that, you will believe anything. The real world is underpinned by a very unforgiving reality where wishful thinking is just that; science is not an ideology and is not the same as belief based on dreams and wishful thinking. But if it makes you happy, dream on.

[BlameRepublicans]

But can't we just make cars bigger so their gas tanks can hold more oil? If that doesn't work, perhaps we can kill more Muslims? Ban abortions? Eat Spotted Owls?

[marcoravenna]

yeah , also people dumbness is forever

[BlameRepublicans]

Apparently so is stupidity.

[kerogre256]

money are not the problem energy need to take this oil is problem whot the poit drill from place where you have to use 2 barel of oil to get 1 out, beter dont drill and find diferent source of energy.

[DCStream]

If you enjoy Hubbert, he was a very strong believer in Technocracy.

[KaminaGurren]

Is that a problem?

[DCStream]

No. It is just further research. I'm a Technocrat myself, I was just being a little vague in my comment.

[KaminaGurren]

OK. I was just wondering. I have interest in the movement, and I hope it picks up speed on the internet. Good luck!

[TBonePickensetc]

Your best best if interested is to get involved. We need creative self starters to get the word out. Contact our various groups and enter into education of what it is all about.

Our Technocracy Study Course was published in 1934.. a lot of it written by Hubbert. We still use it as the base line explanation. A science based social design based on thermdynamics/thermoeconomics. The clock is ticking as to chaos in the current system,the Price System. Every ones help is needed to inform others.

[KaminaGurren]

You're right. I should be more involved. I honestly have been flooded with homework lately, but it's always at the back of my mind, and I described it to some likeminded students. This holiday break will be when I look into it more.

[mpgingdl]

Re so-called "oil shale:" it contains no oil at all. What it really contains is a very low-quality hydrocarbon called "kerogen." Wresting it from rocks requires major inputs of both energy and water and produces major quantities of waste. Even after it has been separated, it must still be upgraded--another large energy input. The upshot: "oil" shale produces a very low EROEI in return for massive capital costs and resource inputs. Furthermore, it is still just another finite resource.

[pseudotruth]

mpgingdl,

Exactly. The easiest and cheapest reserves to exploit are extracted first. Technology improves and once we are past peak oil, increasing prices and demand mean that make previously uneconomic reserves worthwhile. No-one will select oil shale unless and until everything else is exhausted. Just imagine how much gas from oil shale will cost $10, $20 $50 per gal?

Another cost is that we trash the planet in the process.

BTW: I wonder how much oil we can get out of penguins?

[mpgingdl]

Seems we're doing that already.

[Ferrat70]

I don't normally post but I have to. He was spot on for oil production based on standard drilling practices, but his peak oil theory is way off, why? Because of the discovery of shale oil and the subsequent advances in technology to get it. Now it is more expensive than normal oil, and hence when oil gets to $200 a barrel, it will be cost effective to get. And bye bye oil problems. Oh and btw there is 2 trillion barrels under the us just in shale oil, more than what has ever been dug out so far.

[pseudotruth]

Ferrat70,

Hubbert predicted PO 15 years before the fact - his critics said his estimates were 'too low' were wrong.

He demonstrated that even an additional third extra capacity made little difference to his peak oil prediction.

It doesn't matter how much oil there is, if it's not economic to extract and people find that they need a 250 mpg car because gas costs $50 / gal.

Once it's expensive enough, people will abandon oil and seek better and cleaner energy.

[postpeakman]

Ferrat70,

the problem with that shale oil has nothing to do with price of conventional oil. it's the amount of energy it takes to get a usable product out of crappy-grade oil stuck in rocks.

shale oil, tar sands, coal to liquid, biofuels, all of these methods will be elements of the descending side of the Hubbert curve.

but make no mistake, we are at peak now, it's all downhill from here. all these projects will not make up the losses from conventional supplies which are in decline.

[VCMCambo]

The most boring video on my favorites :( But this is definitely important. Ive sold my car and now use public transport everywhere. Helps me stay fit plus its good just to sit back and do something like read a book, study or make some phone calls. Efficiency has ruined so much potential.

[kristianpagh]

Hubbert is eerily accurate in this analysis 1995+10 years due to the 70'ies oil crisis. Why was he so completely ignored?

[dahveed7]

I think Hubbert was largely ignored because he was talking about limits to growth and the need for a new economic paradigm which is still a challenging subject for most people to stomach.

[proadmin1]

I think this is compounded by the fact that it flies - so completely in the faces of pop-ideologies like Objectivism , Supply-sided economics and to a non-trivial extent the underpinning justifications for the "Neoconservative" geopolitical worldview.

[mwells219]

because americans don't like to hear about limited or responsible growth. we have always come from the perspective of exceptionalism and we as americans can consume more without suffering any consequences.

[VillelaAndrade]

So... ultimately it's not like we didn't know about our 'addiction' problem. Yet, inadvertently, we have robbed future generations of their fossil fuel inheritance.

[PieterVisser1980]

great upload, where did you find this?

[dahveed7]

I was allowed to make a copy from the original film owned by Micheal Hubbert, King's favorite nephew!

[catsarefuzzy]

dahveed7 King was an interesting and complicated man. And, as an f.y.i. Michael Hubbert was not King's favorite nephew. He just made it seem so. King had many nephews and Mike was just one of them. Mike is the actor in the family and so it was natural that he made the film. I write this for the nephews in the Hubbert clan that thought they were his favorite.

[TheProphetNabob]

I wonder if the whole interview will be made available.

It's one of the most important talks ever given, in my opinion.

[Gscheitben]

thanks for uploading!

[ricelso]

What a remarkable man. He knew decades ago what is happening today.

[WolYou]

Thanks for this historic document. We are now to learn how close rational thinking is to reality.

[PeakOilAwareness]

From all of us, thanks for sharing this. I first saw this a few months ago, and before that, I didn't even realize video of him existed.

[Yayapilo]

he said it would peak in 1995, but then he said it could shift by ten years towards 2005...man, this guy is on the money..so accurate!!!

[mikeBend]

Phenomenal! That's all I can say.

[fadanewbridge]

What is this from? Is it a television programme? A contemporary documentary?

[newculture]

Thank you very much for sharing this!

[circasurvive1134]

I really appreciated the chance to see Hubbert speak. Thanks, Youtube! The number of peak oil related videos is amazing. The mainstream may not be aware of what's happening, but this shows that a lot of people out there are aware and are producing some great media to get the word out!

[johnsinater]

Truly Brilliant Man, and we must not forget that the next oil peak...is very soon

[PDScally]

The mans peaks the truth, Peak Oil is here !

[fuckcarrots82]

peaks the truth lol

[Robertharveylord35]

Wait, where is this video on how to hack a Coke mahcine again ?

[postpeakman]

It frustrates me that 5,000 people have watched this video, and there have been 1 million views on how to hack a coke machine.

Good to see people have their priorities straight...

[imautoob]

"In terms of human history, it's a very brief epoch."

[venuspluto67]

World production probably peaked in late '05, so Hubbert was off by about eight to ten years. That may be because of some new discoveries or maybe the conservaton craze that happened during the Energy Crisis of the 70's.

[UbikValis2]

If you listen carefully to his commentary, he addresses the Arab oil embargo, which will shift the peak over by about 10 years, according to him. So it moves from 1995 to 2005 or so.

[venuspluto67]

For more information on Peak Oil, read "The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies" by Richard Heinberg.

[Sostemible]

This is a very important document about the peak oil and the risk for the humanity.

Thanks dahveed7