FTSE 100, DAX, Dow Jones Elliott Wave Weekend Review

[JohnE2020]

The 2007 top could be key in fundamental and technical terms (a triple top). The dark horse of inflation may finally escape the stable. Higher interest rats could kill the bull market based on low interest rates and the forex fraud kept secret from the public. Please keep your forward projections they could just keep the shirts on our back.

JJJ

[JohnE2020]

What has happened to your excellent videos

[itoola]

Interesting, how you will comment the +1% move of FTSE :-)))

[Andronichuk]

Hi itoola,

There are afew alternatives that I am now looking at...

Clearly the count 1-2-1-2 is wrong and it now looks like the whole thing was an ABC of some sort...

The major question is whether this is an ABC of a bigger B wave, or some sort of X wave...

Will try and post a video tonight to explore these ideas. :)

[koolio2020]

Watch out for testing the 78.6 retracement line.

[Andronichuk]

koolio...

I'm just about to upload a video I just recorded where I look at the fib relationships between what I still think is an ABC correction...

78.6 gets a mention :)

Still chasing that nut?

I'm just uploading this video now...

it's pretty long, but I break it down so you can jump to the different parts if you wish (listen to the introduction for explination).

[koolio2020]

Scrat in love my friend,it's all about the nuts.

He never gave up on hunting that nut down,even when it came to meeting a female squirrel,he went for the nut instead,that's definitely me.

If I ain't got my nuts,what good am I for the females anyway.Heeeeeeehe:-)

[Andronichuk]

very true :P

Video just uploaded, should come up soon...

feel free to check it out... but beware...

it is like 37 min in total!!!

if you read the description box, there are several links to charts and information on how the entire 37 min is broken down into 3 parts... so feel free to skip between...

I make the case that the rally is STILL corrective

[luvzpalin1]

luv the analysis, however no one is seeing irregular a-b-c 2nd waves that CAN take out some prior highs

[Andronichuk]

Hey Luvzpalin,

2nd waves by definition cannot take out the start of a wave 1....

if we were to rally above 5600 (what I am arguing is a wave 1 off te top) we would have to seriously re-consider the longer term implications...

Most likely alternative would probably be that the decline was an A... rally was a big B... and expect one more 5 wave decline to complete a C....

But it is not possible to have a wave 2 by definition take out that start/high of a wave 1.

Hope that helps

[koolio2020]

Other than just using elliot wave and fibs,draw an upward trendline starting from the low on 2nd of sept,then low 2nd of november and low end of december,the line should follow on up to our present day.You'll see that the market on both the dow and ftse are banging right underneath that upward trendline.

If we manage to get a close above it,then I see bullishness and testing january highs,but I'll maintain an open short position at this level between 5417 and 5427.

[ElliottTrader]

Hi Max, yet another good video, as far as the FTSE and the DAX goes. This count agrees with mine, and especially when searching for those parallel trend channels. A video reply will be posted when it has uploaded and processed. Good work and keep it up!

[frank299]

good video. To me, this so called - correction rally from last march low looks impulsive. And has the personality of it. You can clearly count to wave 3 up and we now appear to be in wave 4 correction or wave 5 up. Why is this not possible? The downward sloping wedge you not in dow looks bullish, as they usually are. And the FTSE looks like a giant Bottom H&S. Your thoughts? Looks bullish yet Elliot seems to see correction rally...

[Andronichuk]

Hi Frank, thanks for the comments.

I'm going to make a video soon looking at the FTSE 100 bigger picture...

I think there is a case for the rally since march being impulsive... but there are afew spots which I think lack the "impulsive" look needed to favour it being impulsive...

My main view of the FTSE bigger picture is that we have had a A-B-C from the 13th July 2007 peak to the March 2009 low...

but this ABC could inturn be a bigger scale A...

[ElliottTrader]

Hi Frank, my take on it is that the rally up from March, 2009 is not impulsive because the waves do not form a parallel Elliott Trend channel (see the first video in the ElliottTrader sequence for an explanation of forming these trend channels if you are unfamiliar with how to go about it), So, if the waves up do not cleanly form a trend channel according to those rules, the move is most likely corrective not impulsive. Prechter said it would "fool most into thinking it was a new bull market."

[frank299]

noted. good point, although the count (ecp 3rd wave looks clear) it's more of an upward sloping wedge.

[frank299]

Actually on second look, I was able to draw a channel on dow. from top of wave 1 to top of wave 3 & bottom of wave 2 to possible bottom of wave 4.

[frank299]

Above comments refer consideration of the mkt rally being an impulse move and not corrective.

March low of 09 to current price.

[ElliottTrader]

Just to be sure, this exercise was repeated. Although it is possible to draw parallel lines containing the current price movement, they do not follow the cardinal rule that one must first select the terminal points of waves 2 & 4 for the first boundary of the channel, then fine the line parallel to it that best connect at least two of the wave 1,3,5 terminuses on the other side of the channel. The channel you are describing connects waves 0 & 4, and 3 &5, which does not follow the rules.

[ElliottTrader]

See the first video in my YouTube channel for the Elliott rules on how to form the parallel Elliott trend channel which must apply in all but the 5th wave (ending diagonal).

[frank299]

Not sure which video you are referring.  To can you please provide the link?

Thanks

[ElliottTrader]

Sure, the link will be sent via YouTube message.

[koolio2020]

If it does rally,I guess we can go and chase some nuts together(That will be Mr Market's nuts,I'll kick the right one,you can kick the left one).HeeeeeeHE!

[koolio2020]

Telling by your voice.Squeeze some lemons,neck it down with a spoon of honey.

Get well soon buddy!

[Andronichuk]

hahaha, thanks koolio...

but the voice is me on a normal day :P

[koolio2020]

Creepy,I'm still chasing my Nut!!!!!!!

[Andronichuk]

if market rallies above 5370 I might just lose my nuts lol

:)