What do you think you're thinking when you think? (why experts are wrong)

[MrGregglesC]

Someone shut this cunt up.

[MiniarHalfshasa]

No,.. Time does not make you an expert.

[arisbananatwins]

my charming "expert" scholarly gentleman!! im very glad i get to sit with you in real life to discuss all of this! speaking of which... if your in tel aviv this week, give me a call, so we can ketchup over an expertly made sabeech!

(you know who this is right?) ;))

[Joniversity]

@arisbananatwins Well it's about time you'd participate. I've heard you got yourself a prime candidate for procreation...

Anyways, Tel Aviv is way too sofisto-urban for me. I say the slums of Netanya make a better setting... It's easier to feel smarter here :-)

[arisbananatwins]

@Joniversity lol...ASHKARA! next time im there, ill drop you a line.. ..and no prime candidate quite yet... still seeing resumes. though many applicants are definatley worthy of short internships. ;))

[mozlitania]

@Joniversity Did anyone said something bad about Netanya? Hey, I live there! And it`s a beatiful touristic town. Anyway, nice examples. Very similar to the ones that Prof. Kahneman gives at his lectures about intuition.

[Joniversity]

@mozlitania I live in Netanya too... And yes this vid was based on a large extent on Kahneman's presentation. i also took a few samples from there. The guy is a genius.

[REVOLUZIONIST]

Deep geological repository forcasts for radioactive waste still have to top the list.

they're like:

-OK, we'll find a place where this deadly stuff will be reposited safely for the next 500.000 years or so without endangering anyone.

In my view that nuclear energy and radioactive waste stuff are the most lunatic adventures mankind has eveer undertaken...

[Joniversity]

@REVOLUZIONIST have you heard of ONKALO?

[REVOLUZIONIST]

@Joniversity

Yes, just another mess.

[samuils]

You have hit the nail on the head when you said "analysts are good at predicting past." This goes for stock market "experts as well, and only because they and Quants use pure mathematical approach (I have studied it for some time now). That is where the problem comes from, absence of any external variables in math models for stock market which has more external (human) factors than mathematical factors. And you really can not calculate human factor in math terms (yet)

[samuils]

Well you are correct in basic sense. Those are our thoughts etc. However, that is exactly why Intuition is called (hypothesis), and hypothesis is backed by a tremendous amount of reasoning (calculations, historical data and so on), until this hypothesis becomes a fact. The problem we face now is that many fallacies in science have false historical data to do their work, be it math behind GW, or Keynesian economical models, both of which have incorrect data to support itself.

[SirGaul]

Brilliant! Actually the balance of intuition,and reason is one of the chalenges I think we all face. I for one tend to be intuitive. The balance of these is a kind of mystical experiance.

[TimothyStuartRiches]

This has relevance to letting our emotions guide us. Emotions seem to be triggered by our intuitions, at least at first, and are therefore suspect when dealing with issues of importance. It's only when things have 'calmed down' that the rational side can examine the problem critically, giving the emotions better source material to work with.

[SomethingSea1]

The ball/bat example got me. I got functional fixedness with the $0.10, thereby preventing the thought of $0.05.

[SomethingSea1]

@SomethingSea1 I didn't end up with the $1.20 answer, but I instead went the direction of thinking there was no functional answer.

[SomethingSea1]

For "which objects more similar" I immediately came up with the two objects that looked least similar, and well as insight as to what you were going to explain. From my experience, puzzles such as this choose to use overt examples, and the answer is nearly always the opposite of a naive first impression. Because I investigate such things often, I have the opposite intuitive reaction now.

[Joniversity]

@SomethingSea1

Well two things. First of as you said, after dealing with these issues you coach your intuition to be counter-intuitive. But even then studies still show that the first automatic response in most humans are shapes A and C - BTW the results change dramatically when you show the image for a second or two or for a minute... So again it stresses the fast I\O point.

[SomethingSea1]

I agree. And, of course. If time's a factor, that's going to be the result. Lovin' your video. The differential from short-term to long-term I find to be insightful. Thanks for this wonderful video :-)

[Joniversity]

@SomethingSea1 You are very much welcome :-)

[SomethingSea1]

Hey! 6 x 7 isn't 54! It's 42.

[SomethingSea1]

@SomethingSea1 Oh... part of the experiment. I calculated it myself...

[CMO999]

I naturally chose to calculate it myself and was a bit confused at first when your answer was different.

[Joniversity]

@CMO999 Point to ponder on: if i would put up the question 15375 X 17648 would you still try to calculate it?

[SomethingSea1]

It would probably depend on a few factors. Giving the best ones (paper and pen at hand, calculator at hand), possibly. It also depends on how important it is. Since the importance of this is about importance itself (the numbers aren't the main idea), probably not. But the given answer would matter-of-factly not be trusted. Then we can proceed to some fun Derren Brown stuff xD

[CMO999]

@Joniversity I get your point, I don't know why I even said that. Just bragging I guess, but it's not like that's something to brag about.

[Joniversity]

@CMO999 Bragging is just another way to admit to ourselves how goddamn awesome we are :-) believe me i know. i do it all the time... ;-)

In any-case you still represent a minority (less than a third if i remember correctly). Most people don't bother even for simpler problems.

[SomethingSea1]

@Joniversity U is awesomz ;-)

[123backinyerface]

An extremely interesting video and subject Jonny. There are certain steps that have to be taken to understand anything, and although that sounds like a "Duh" statement, the truth is we are not taught "how" to think we are only usually "what" to think and "what" to remember.

I think the majority of the western world are running purely on Intuition, and the very few who are more Reason orientated usually excel. Our Intuition needs to be reigned, in because it can act like a dog of its leash.

[123backinyerface]

I don't want your head to get bigger here, but your videos are going from strength to strength man, I really look forward to each one you make.

I have to say the inclusion of the walking talking "argument from authority" himself, Mr Noam Chomsky, was the perfect example. If I hear "The greatest free thinking mind of our time" one more time, I will shit a chicken. But I love the fact that truthers use him constantly...except for 9/11 that is, for that he is a deep undercover Zionist spy...lol.

[Joniversity]

@123backinyerface First of all thanks. I appriricate it, especially when it comes from someone like yourself.

On the other subject: It turns out that most people are undercover Zionists spies. Google "Alex Jones Zionist" and you'll see what i mean. But as a Zionist i'd rather be hated and feared than hated and belittled. But i'm way more worried about people taking Noam Chomsky as an authority on anything (lately even linguistics). It's goddamn sad.

[Joniversity]

@123backinyerface First of all - yes - most humans (west and east) make choices based on their intuitive system rather than the reason one. Regrading how to think - the more related subject is decision making and risk management - two subjects which are very hard to master. I think that it's not a matter of making reason overpower intuition but more to understand why we make the choices we do and when each system should be applied for best end results.

[detersgumig]

Awesome video, definitely food for thoughts!

[StopFear]

cool info. Who is Maadi? or is it Mahdib? some Muslim prophesied messiah?

[Joniversity]

@StopFear There's a pretty good article about him on Wikipedia (search Mahdi). Also search for 'Twelvers' - the Shia sect that Ahmadinejad belongs too and you'll get the general picture. Also, like always on Wikipedia, make sure to check out the discussion page on each topic to see the different oppositions.

I'll make a clip about myself sometime soon hopefully.

[WhatTheAce]

Is that mean Islam will not dominate Europe in the future also? ^^

[Joniversity]

@WhatTheAce Seriously. If the right measures will be taken to assimilate these societies and as part of this to expel those who call for the destruction of the rights that gave them the ability to strive for a better life then Europe might still have a chance.

At the end of the day, before Islam takes over, there would probably be a massive bloody civil war.

All Europeans have to understand is that their culture is simply BETTER and work from there.

[WhatTheAce]

@Joniversity So, Are they(Europeans) doing anything to assimilate these societies and expel those muslims?

[ohffsjustgivemeauser]

You should familiarize your self with Ayn Rand prediction to have a correctional experience. :)

[ohffsjustgivemeauser]

@ohffsjustgivemeauser and with George Orwell also

[Joniversity]

@ohffsjustgivemeauser Remind me, who is John Galt again? ;-)

[ArteTuga2]

Amazing video again. Incredible, informative, educational.

[Joniversity]

@ArteTuga2 Coming from you - that's a true honor!

[ctso74]

Reason can override Intuition, but the Centipede's Dilemma can temporarily shut it down. They say, many a poor sport uses it on the golf course. Great vid!

[Joniversity]

@ctso74 i actually thought if i should include the Centipede's Dilemma in the video, but finally i decided to leave it out (i also left out terms like 'cognitive illusion' and 'the illusion of validity' and just kept them in annotations). But it's certainly an interesting subject by itself.

[GodlessInfinity]

Nice to see the problem with predictive Game Theory being taken to task by the way. As always Joniversity your videos are brilliant.

[GodlessInfinity]

:) Joniversity pointed out that reading was intuitive, as with language in general. It sure explains how some people manage to work the internet eh?

[GodlessInfinity]

^ was = is

[GodlessInfinity]

I'm still waiting for my mother F#$king jetpack and flying car!

[BritishNeoCon]

Well put together, helped articulate a lot of ideas I already had.

[allianceofdemons]

I and crew approve your message.

~Geoffrey and AoD

[Vogter2100]

Amazingly good video and extremely interesting. A friend of mine, being an economis expert of national and international level says that making predictions of the future further than the current day is a pure game of chance.

[TheLaughingOut]

That was one amazing video.

That other guy seems to agree with pretty much everything you say!

[Joniversity]

@TheLaughingOut Thanks! And, yah, you're right, he's totally my bitch! ;-)

[gaglamesh731]

I'm curios , how do you think this intuition-reason model applies to religion and its more extremist nature ?(since you brought up Iran)

[Joniversity]

@gaglamesh731 Well off the top of my head i can first say that if you are brought up from day one to believe in a deity and a complimentary belief system it will assimilate into your intuitive system and if you won't employ your reason to overcome it - it will override your reason... which is more or less what we see. but this of course is over simplistic. I'll have to rub my brain cells some more to get a more satisfying answer. But it does give a general nice framework to start from.

[mitukats]

@Joniversity

The Torah teaches not to follow your heart and eyes. It entreats us to use reason and not intuition. This is also the understanding behind the hardening of Pharoah's heart.

[FHomeBrew]

At the image I only thought "She seems to be smiling" because that's the judgement of the observation I made. I can't draw any conclusion beyond that because all it would be is mere speculation. At the equation, I computed the whole damn thing before the first point was highlighted.

[Joniversity]

@FHomeBrew Have you been speaking to my wife? It's exactly what she said.

[depfox]

Another great video.....I love how you do the split screen....Teach me Master ;O)

[Joniversity]

@depfox LOL!

Well. i use Adobe Premier and Photoshop for the editing and extras. Lucky for me in my workplace purchased it for me for instructional training videos that i do as part of my work. But i'm sure there are illegal copies and cracks if your into that...