Deconstructing Dembski #3: The Man with the Golden Arm

[AmusedChild]

1. Couldn't one say that the "fishiness" was caused by predicting, not the random pattern of Dems and Repubs, but the nonrandom choosing of Dems by a Dem?

2. Pattern = sustained reproduction; and is this not the definition of life? (Chem was decades ago!) Aren't we really asking what "randomness" is?

3. Bring on the programming languages! I love them - and I loved BASIC!

[w0r1dpeace]

Randy where the hell are you?

[randyhelzerman]

LOL hanging around

[schrodcat]

Do you really need Kolmgorov complexity for Caputo's paradox? I'd call it entropy. First, his sequence is astoundingly improbable (low entropy). Next, you don't compare it with "any" given sequence like in the previous video, but with the typical sequence (H and T in similar numbers of occurrences, in "any" order, i.e. high entropy). In other words, the probability that a sequence HHH... (more than 40) is generated by a biased coin is practically 1.

[randyhelzerman]

Excellent question, schrodcat. First, low probability alone isn't enough, because ANY sequence of 41 heads and tails has the same probability as any other (under the uniform distribution). Second, a "typical" sequence will have high entropy, that's very true. The fact that caputo's sequence has low entropy would raises eyebrows. The reason I wanted to use Komogorov complexity instead of entropy is that there is a direct connection between a string of one's and zeros being fabricated(cont)

[randyhelzerman]

(cont, to schrodcat) and its Kolmogorov complexity--namely, the shorter the instructions for fabricating it, the lower its Kolmogorov complexity is. Since we suspicion that Caputo fabricated the numbers, this is a natural fit. (BTW, with very high probability, strings with high entropy also have high kolmogorov complexity, so the entropy of the string is a good estimate of the kolmogorov complexity)

[Mike1977a1]

When was Kolmogorov around, do you know if had the use of computers?

[randyhelzerman]

Hi Mike1977a1, Kolmogorov was at the heights of his powers from roughly 1930 to 1970. he lived in the Soviet Union, and yeah, he had access to them, as well as infinite amounts of graduate students to program them, or wash his car, etc :-)

[Mike1977a1]

Nice, how old are your students ? This is very complex stuff, are they adult under graduates?

[randyhelzerman]

I think they range from college age to middle age. But I think that any body whose had algebra could do it. Why don't you give it a try? :-)

[Mike1977a1]

Ermm, if i toss a coin 10 times and find a pattern in the result, why choose ten times?

Isnt it us who sets the rules & finds patterns, but theres nothing in the world to determine why i should go with 10 sets. i dont want to believe that theres absurdity in mathematics and geometry too, i always hoped they where totally determinable!

[randyhelzerman]

Hi Mike1977a1, I guess I don't understand your question :-)

[EvoBiologist]

It doesn't matter how many times you throw a coin. 10 is just an arbitrary number to show how unlikely each specific event can be. Use 20 or 20,000, it doesn't matter. Patterns exist whether or not we examine them, just as a tree falling in the forest makes sound waves whether or not someone is there to hear them.

[CousinoMacul]

I've been thinking of making a Kolmogorov Complexity video for a while now. I'll have to watch yours and see you've saved me the trouble. :-)

[randyhelzerman]

dude, please, by all means, make a video about this! When I was learning it I was desperate to get all the possible ways of explaining it as I could, because I couldn't 100% percent understand any explaination. I'm sure that anybody who is trying to learn this stuff would benefit from your expositions.

[CousinoMacul]

I probably will eventually. I wasn't planning on using an actual programming language; my video was going to be sort of a "KC for dummies." That is one of the reasons I was finding it challenging. But now that you've done yours, I think I can water it down enough to get the basic concept across, and reference your video series for those who are interested in more detail. Some day. :-)

[valyok]

Finally, somebody will explain what Kolmogorov complexity is ;-)

[lirpa69]

I love your use of first person plural, it's very inclusive. Sorry, nothing to add on the discussion, except to say that I think you are my favorite "professor". =)

[koenichfuerst]

Heh, who would have thought that my engineering and programming knowledge would help me understand theological problems. Really looking forward to this. I don't think anyone sold a mathematical theory that well to me before.

[DayfallKat]

Very interesting. Great series. As usual, right?

[sssswwwsssss]

Great stuff, Randy. I'm so looking forward to more.

[randyhelzerman]

uh, good point variablast :)

[naphra2]

Oh this is so sweet, The Incredible Helz doing Kolmogorov complexity, I've officially peed my pants already :)

[randyhelzerman]

LOL naphra :)

[touchingstoves]

King Missile?

[randyhelzerman]

I should have known that you'd get the musical references, touchingstoves :-)

[touchingstoves]

Lol. I had to look it up to make sure. So how intense is this coding going to be?

[randyhelzerman]

Hi touchingstoves, it will be very do-able but will require a time comittment. If you can put in 3-4 hours per week for the next several weeks, you'll have it.

[StormTrek]

"We can hardly 'specify in advance' what kind of universe we'd expect."

True. On the other hand, you can rewind the universe, change some numbers, and then fast forward to see what happens.

Was the universe rigged for human life, or are we just extremely lucky to have evolved at the ealiest moments that a universe like ours would allow us to evolve?

There must be a method and set of tools to at least sway (even if it's small) the reasonability of one explanation over the other.

[randyhelzerman]

Hi StormTrek, yup, and we'll be exhaustively raking them over the coals in the next few lectures...

[StormTrek]

Cool, I don't see people talk about the method of how to answer the question of God very often.

[rnistuk]

I am really looking forward to learning about Kolmogorov complexity!

Thanks!

[randyhelzerman]

Your welcome :)

[maksiiiskam2]

Concerning the Democrat/Republican pattern, isn't it enough to consider information entropy? I would expect a fair pattern to be HTHTHT... i.e minimal entropy, while the actual pattern is almost at maximal entropy.

Unless a fair pattern should be random, in that case I understand the point of KC (I'm not going to try to spell it.).

[maksiiiskam2]

Yeah, that is if I understand information entropy, which I'm not sure.

[oldiousnei]

lol

[randyhelzerman]

Hi maksiiskam2, your instincts are correct, entropy is a good heuristic. But we'll see that there are some sequences of coin flips which have high entropy but have a simple pattern, and vice versa. Most of the time that doesn't happen though...

[oldiousnei]

Great vid, I look forward to Kolmogorov. It struck me that Dembski's "detachability" seems like a justification to enable him to take something out of context so that then he may apply "the correct" context in order for the pattern in question to support his view. I am being simplistic here but, would you characterize it differently Randy?

[randyhelzerman]

Hi oldiousnel, I don't want to let the cat out of the bag too much, but we will eventually find many reasons to criticize the notion of detatchability :)

[urbanelf]

This should be interesting. I actually thought that the notion of detachability was the one thing that seemed to make sense.  It seemed like Dembski tries to define specificity but then the cats at the Discovery Institute just ignore detachability. "Everybody knows biological systems are specified", says the Discovery Institute.

[oldiousnei]

"detachability" as a concept makes sense, but from what I understand, its just its application and therefore its implications in this case that are not sensible. In other words, Dembski, to quote variablast, "paints the bullseye after the fact" the problem is that not only does one not know what the barn looks like, one does not even know if a barn can exist at all. Randy is saving the juicy part so we will have to wait... sigh.