Election 2008 Update (Electoral AND Popular Vote Prediction)

[hilife717]

booooooo....!

[seinfeld120]

i love that nevada blue, i go yup. missouri: red. nope. indiana : red. nope. nh: blue. yup. and on, as each one of those state backed Barrack Hussein Obama in the end, the 44th President of this great country.

[Someguywithacomputer]

It was even bigger in the real thing.

[soggytreats9]

WHOOHOOOOO! This was thebest day of my life !

[sxb5551]

what is this sad music on it?? are you republican?

[FinalFantasyDCCXXVI]

See his other election vid.

[NeCiFiX]

I thought it would either be 311-227 or 338-200. Florida the deciding factor. I was wrong on Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and 1 Nebraska EV.

[FSUfanOFtheBAND]

I'm sorry but whats with the sad music. Its kinda freakin' me out haha?

[MasterShadowRyu]

Well looks like you have another error, but it was one result that hardly any of us thought would happen. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District has gone to Obama.

[electionologist]

Yeah--that's true.

First time an electoral vote from Nebraska has gone to a Democrat since LBJ's landslide in 1964.

[rakrobn]

And you were wrong again...NC went to Obama, FL when to Obama, IN went to Obama. Retard.

[Jhoncena309]

every one do u see that of red votes mccain has thats a bible belt look it up no joke!! thats a bad thing for red votes just look it up on google it will tell u the legend of it

[electionologist]

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: Bradley Effect has Died!

The Coroner's report states that Mr. Effect, better known as "Bradley," died on November 4th, 2008 at approximately 11:00 PM EST. The cause of death is believed to be a rapid onset of interracial tolerance that led to a Republican Heartland attack on the night of November 4th.

Few expected such a rapid spread of "Tolerance Disease" through America's racial immune system. Those mourning the death of Bradley Effect blame the media for the disease.

[PoliticsAdInfinitum]

LOL,, Ohh god.. U scared me, i thought u were talkin about the mayor who's loss defined the bradley effect. When i read u say that he died at 11 im like oh shit, I hope he atleast got to see that Obama won

LOL

[Bovinebob07]

This one was pretty close. You even predicted the ohio victory for Obama. Didn't see that coming.

[electionologist]

BARACK OBAMA will be the 44th President of the United States after a LANDSLIDE VICTORY.

My new Electoral Vote projection:

Obama - 364

McCain - 174

The only thing that can stop Obama at this point is either 1: faithless electors or 2: an assassination. God protect Obama from the bigots.

Congratulations to everyone who wanted an Obama victory. Better luck next time to McCain supporters. And a round of applause to Ron Paul, Nader, Bob Barr, and every other candidate who ran a noble campaign.

[silverstar73]

You were close. I went by your predictions as well.

Thanks for sharing, hope to see your predictions in 4 years!

[MasterShadowRyu]

Well you were off. Result, now as of 1:56 a.m. ET:

Obama-338 EVs

McCain-160 EVs

And 40 EVs have yet to be decided

[electionologist]

That is true. I was off by three states.

Florida (51% - 49%)

North Carolina (50% - 50%)

Indiana (50% - 49%)

Ultimately Obama won be very small margins is FL, NC, and IN. Overall, Obama has won by a large margin--about 52% to 47%.

[RBDgirl123456789]

★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★

¨°º¤ø„ OBAMA„ø¤º°¨ Copy and paste

¸„ø¤º°¨ROCKS! ``°º¤ø„¸ If you KNOW Obama

ø¤º°¨¸„ø¤º°¨¨°º¤ø„¸¨°ºø Will win!!

★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★

[blackenedmetalistbch]

ahh dude ur older video kinda sucked. you probably saw my comment. this is much better!

obama ftw!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!!

★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★

¨°º¤ø„ OBAMA„ø¤º°¨ Copy and paste

¸„ø¤º°¨ROCKS! ``°º¤ø„¸ If you KNOW Obama

ø¤º°¨¸„ø¤º°¨¨°º¤ø„¸¨°ºø Will win!!

★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★

[aequesadacr]

Blue 328

[aequesadacr]

I was so close!

Up to 300!

[IndependentOhioan]

Either Ohio or Pennsylvania could easily go to McCain...especially Ohio.

[hyroglyphx]

This looks pretty accurate and about what I expect as well. I disagree about Ohio, Florida and Virginia. I think OH and VA will go to McCain and I think Florida will go to Obama, all by narrow margins. Ultimately, I think Obama is going to win.

[dmdcreations]

M273 - O265 Nightmare Circumstance = New Hampshire goes Obama resulting in 269 - 269

[Bree1059]

I think more McCain voters will come out to vote tonight

[elgcpa]

Wrong, wrong, wrong. 274-264 McCain. You read it here first.

[crazyguy1913]

I want Obama to win but the white house is evil!!!

[shesopaque]

Obama!!! I have no good/valid reason to vote for McCain except to make sure dems don't have full control and that reason is not good enough in the grand scheme of things. McCain/Palin are a JOKE

[buckeyehunter18627]

My prediction:

Obama: 291

McCain:'247

[Firemaker100]

obama all the way for me!!!! ya

[MasterShadowRyu]

Now on Election Day Eve, my prediction is:

Obama-338

McCain-200

Basically the same as your map, only I give Florida to Obama.

[electionologist]

That is a very possible scenario, but I'm bearish on Florida. We'll find out tomorrow!

[zaidanovish]

1 day to election , and i hope obama will win

the wisdome will win

[blondenhanz]

This prediction makes a lot more sense to what the polls are reflecting, unless something drastic happens, I Hope not!!

God Bless America!

[electionologist]

Where is your proof?

[djinnbladex]

Seems more in line with the trend in the polls.

We'll see what happens on election night! :)

[Ruby1978]

143 million is too high..more like 132

[electionologist]

In 2004, 122.3 million people voted.

Since 2004, the US population has increased 13 million. The voting-age population, however, has increased 15 million.

122.3 million + (15 million X 0.553) = 130.6 million. This assumes voter turnout is identical to 2004 at 55.3%.

Voter turnout is expected to reach 65% in 2008. 65/55.3 = 1.175

130.6 X 1.175 = 153.5. There could be as many as 153.5 Million voters in this election.

My estimate of 143.7 million, therefore, is quite conservative.

[electionologist]

My statistics would be in line with a voter turnout of 60.8% which, although historically high, is a conservative prediction for this particular election.

Some states are expecting turnout in excess of 75%!

[ktchong]

Hey, what's the music playing in the background??

[electionologist]

"Warlords" from the movie "Lord of War"

[silverstar73]

thx! 3 more days!

[ktchong]

lol. his prediction even says exactly how many votes Obama and McCain will get: 73,715,180 vs. 65,811,993. How the heck did he get those numbers??

[shirleyyujest]

Yeah, Remember how much Al Gore was winning by?

Or John Kerry?

Polls are one thing...

What really matters is what happens when people actually vote...

I think a lot of you will be surprised with the outcome...

Wait and see..

[gotpudding91]

nice less bias but still a little bias

[jdaw2552]

I like these....Except I don't want Mccain to lose

[lewisbell]

I have Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana and Florida for Obama

Obama 375

McCain 163

[MasterShadowRyu]

MUCH better than your last prediction, but I still think that Florida will go for Obama.

[silverstar73]

As much as I would like to see Nevada go to Obama, I think it's leaning more in favor to McCain.

[electionologist]

You may be right--Nevada is bit a bit of a gamble with the current poll numbers, but I have taken other factors into account which give me confidence that Obama will be able to win Nevada on Election Day.

[silverstar73]

I'm curious what factors are being considered in your prediction that Nevada will go to Obama because I'm here in Henderson and Vegas and it seems to be overwhelmingly pro-McCain. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

BTW what's the title/artist of the song you have playing on the soundtrack of this video?

[EthanJM]

Lets make every state solid, with the candidate ahead by any margain large or small.

Obama-Biden 375, Mccain-Palin 163. It may turn out like this, an even larger victory, a crushing victory.

[moneyfornewbies]

Well there's still time for another update. My prediction you will predict McCain the winner the day before the election.

[TheSingingNewsNetwrk]

Why do you think Florida will go for McCain? Currently Obama is up in the polls. Do you think the votes will be manipulated in Florida? is that why you predict McCain will win?

[electionologist]

Polls (on average) now have Obama leading within the margin of error in FL. I have calculated that Obama's numbers are inflated by an average of 3.35%. Therefore, I believe that the states where Obama's lead is less than 3.35% could easily go "Red" on Election Day.

Vote fraud is impossible to quantify as there is no way to account for an unpredictable variable. The vote count will not be 100% accurate, but I don't believe the "errors" will be big enough to change the outcome of the election.

[NubianKinks]

That sounds about right.

[StraightRazor99]

The music made me nervous. Even as I heard good news, I felt tense.

Thanks for the update. I applaud your willingness to stand corrected. That's fucking admirable.

[MichaelAJonesJr]

This is GOOD NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!@@@!!#11

[blindmanwalkin]

does anyone know what the name of the song?

OBAMA 08!!!!

[mightymik]

60% of all people called to participate in polls decline. They are the silent majority. Just yesterday Gov. Blunt (MO). Claimed to have found over a thousand instances of voter fraud. Thats over a thousand votes thrown out. It's happening all over. The polls are completely wrong. Obama wins popular vote Mccain wins presidency.

[Marine490]

This election is just like wrestling. Makes you think Obama is winning with a HUGE lead, but then right at the end, McCain is gonna bash him in the face and red states will bleed out of Obama's nose. You'll see. I'm proud to wear my McCain shirt and button. McCain supporters need not to worry. We are currently getting a grasp on both Ohio and Florida. Colorado and New Mexico won't go Obama, and Washington will go McCain as well. Virginia isn't lost either. Don't predict too quickly. Vote McCain

[Andy120290Returns]

Two things:

1) The music is a little too loud.

2) I believe you are underestimating how many popular votes third-party and independent candidates will win this election. I bet that this election will be a record for them. Although I doubt any of them will win even one electoral vote (unless there is a faithless elector or two).

[danimo17]

I can't say I've made any vast predictions like this and I don't know what background you have to call yourself an "electionologist" but I certainly HOPE you're right! Get it? HOPE? haha

If I could complain about one thing, it's the fact that the states turn red before they turn blue, as if red is the default. :o( It's all good though -- an accident of programming, right? :P

[electionologist]

Thanks for your comment.

Yeah--red comes first.

I would say there is a 95% chance that Obama will win the electoral vote and a 99% chance that he will win the popular vote.

This prediction is what I consider to be the "most likely outcome," based on recent polling data, historic trends, polling trends, demographic analysis, and other factors.

[JoePlumber08]

This is sh!t

Go McCain!!!

[predictionologist]

looks right to me.

[RandomGagan]

in your last video you said McCain would win! OBAMA/BIDEN 08

[psalas0378]

that is why this is the updated version. LISTEN!

[Abcflc]

Obama will do better than that! He can win Florida, Indiana, N Carolina and Missouri!

[jopoy456]

trust me he will not win florida!!!

[roswellatup]

i think ohio will stay red... i'm 101 % sure of that

[KamenHanya]

hope so!

OBAMA!!

[acb06172005]

Don't count on it.