CNBC Guest Jim Rogers Predicts $200 a Barrel Oil

[soupwell]

As oil becomes too expensive to produce, we will gradually migrate to other technologies. I would not bet on this happening before 20 years is up. Even then, the sky will not fall.

[soupwell]

Yes, oil will continue to get harder to produce. It has been doing so since the 1920s.

Thankfully, we continue improving technology. Sometimes this involves a rise in price, because it costs more to use more complex extraction methods. Other times, the new methods provide so much more production that the price collapses. See the price of natural gas since the advent of hydraulic fracturing.

[TurnKeyOil]

@drumsnbass, they weren't so off on their predictions. I think it will be interesting to hear 2011 predictions coming in 4th quarter.

[rocminc99al]

Rogers' time frame is 10+ years. He might have the last laugh after all.

[BikiniBabe1985]

Jim Rogers is the only Austrian economist I have seen who subscribes to the peak oil theory. Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, and every other libertarian seem to say that the high oil prices are entirely due to inflation. I am kind of in between on this argument. Inflation is certainly a major factor but the facts presented seem to indicate the era of cheap oil is winding down, regardlessof our reckless monetary policy

[ojmoss]

how can you say "the era of cheap oil is winding down" when the price of oil collapsed from $147 to $33? it's the exact opposite. the era of expensive oil is over. we are in a deflationary depression and oil is going to go plunge even lower, possibly as low as $4. rogers, faber, paul and especially clown schiff have gotten it totally wrong. check out robert prechter to see what a true austrian is saying.

[BikiniBabe1985]

Most of the world's giant oil fields have been used up. The Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia is the only thing keeping prices reasonable. There is enough oil to last a couple hundred years but the cost of extracting most of the world's reserves is extremely high at this point in time. Why the hell do you think companies are trying to find oil 1,000 feet under the sea? Or why are we trying to make oil out of tar sands? The oil companies know what's up. The supply of sweet, light crude is dwindling

[ojmoss]

What you are saying may be true but it is independent of the pirce of oil. People were using peak oil to justify over $100 oil and we saw how well that worked out. Once this deflation really starts to take hold the price is going to plummet again. Whatever the premium for dwindling supplies is it is insignificant relative to the deflationary tsunami coming.

[you2306]

they make oil in tar sands? i thought it had oil there. no? i agree there is a shortage of oil for sure and no major oil field has been found. And any current or future discoveries will take many many years to bring that oil to market

[BikiniBabe1985]

the EROEI is so low on tar sands that the economic feasibility is impractical. The global economic system cannot be run on tar sands barring miraculous technological breakthroughs

[cruisers5313]

We could easily produce enough oil ourselves to meet our own demands, but environmentalist won't let us. Funny thing is many of them are against windmills, nuclear energy and ocean currents for energy. So basically we are going to have to wait another 20-30 years for the ultimate clean energy to come out if it does.

[zinkerled]

America can produce enough oil to satisfy it's demand? Perhaps you should educate yourself before you type.

[cruisers5313]

America consumes about 18 millions barrels of oil per day. The U.S. Minerals Management Service estimates 102 billion barrels of oil on federal lands and coastal waters. 90% of this oil is off limits. The US has 1.5-2.6 trillion barrels of shale oil in reserves. Most of the shale oil remains locked because of a 95 year old law enacted by congress to save the oil for the NAVY. If we opened these protected areas of oil reserves in 5 years from now we would meet 75% of our demand.10 yrs 95% demand.

[cruisers5313]

Please educate me with your facts if you can.

[zinkerled]

Weeelll, the shale oil can't be extracted at these prices. The other oil can't be extracted because it would destroy the environment. Or do you think those areas are being protected for no reason at all? Yes, that must be it. It's a conspiracy.

[you2306]

i hear u.s is importing oil

[BikiniBabe1985]

Easily? Look at the facts. Our oil fields have been used up and the oil that is still available is of low quality and difficult to extract. There is a reason that we import oil, and that reason is Saudi Arabia produces sweet, light crude at $5 a barrel. We may have some heavy, sour crude 2,000 feet under the ocean, but the cost of extracting that is so astronomical that it hardly makes any sense

[sageunr]

Let's stop killing world all of you.

New New World Order　国際連盟ＳＡＧＥテーマソング「ピース・オブ・ザ・ワールド」♪ KAZUKI&SIZUKU ♪ United Nations SAGE Theme Song「Peace of the World」・(KAZUKI)2009年 国連ユネスコ世界遺産音楽祭エグゼグティブプロデューサー

ASIA政治経済協力機構 代表中井天山

[beeb1421]

if i listened to this retard 3 years ago, i'd be flat broke now.

he's a guesser like all the rest of em'

if they get lucky and pick a winner, they immediately write a book.

[pshinspections]

Hey turkey, I did listen to him 10 years ago and I am now retired from work. 3 years is a short-term investment strategy, no wonder you're broke. LOL

[beeb1421]

yea i ordered joe blows "get rick quick" system. now i'm retired.

dumb ass.

[pshinspections]

Amazingly predictable are the losers who work all their lives and then fail to debate with any authority as to the subject matter. You go to work tomorrow, hotdog, Hussein needs you to pay income tax.

[Mattessj]

Canada is #2 in the World for oil producing countries. If the US Stimulus package wont include Canadian steel and lumber.. im afraid we are gunna have to turn off the oil tap.

[ragon144]

Forget about this market crier who wants to suck you into his commodity index funds to make money with your hard earned money! Oil is falling to 50 since his predictions. Don't believe him! 'Peak oil' is bullshit as you can see here on youtube. Rogers is sponsored by the Rockefellers and the oil companies. His recommendations have been a bullshit till today!

[50chickens]

at this exact moment in time you're right. come back in 2 or 3 years and see how you do then. also, i notice that the prediction rogers made was actually $150-200 when it was under $100.. and it hit 147 earlier in the year, so i don't think it was that bad. also look at the CRB chart for the last 5 years. he's been saying buy commodities since 2001 not since this year.

[pshinspections]

"Rogers is sponsored by the Rockefellers and the oil companies."

Post your evidence. You would be the first to do so. The man has his own money, dickhead. He is not owned by anyone. Nice try at discrediting him, but we all know jealousy of the rich is common...

[beeb1421]

you're so successfull now that you only inspect "crawl spaces" every other wednsday.

i think you got a crack in YOUR foundation,

dicklick

home inspections? what's a matter, medical billing from home didn't sound appealing?

[straydoggio]

Seriously.. go back to the post I made 9 months ago, with the -6 thumbs.

You $200 freaks sucking up to this guy just don't understand markets. LOL... $50-ish now.

FREAKS.

[GassyMaskz]

On a side note, the circumstances that were there a year ago no longer exist. Saudi Arabia decided to massively increase their produciton of oil, and people finally noticed that there was no competition in the oil market, so the went to the cheaper place. Also, oil consumption didn't increase over the summer, something that never happens, so there was a lack of demand. To summarize, more supply, less demand, and more competition lowered prices of oil(among other things).

[asierra1492]

straydoggio, the mayor reason for the up and down in oil from 50 to 146 back to 40ish is almost exclusively in the dollar value, not because of supply and demand, sure supply and demand has an effect but the mayor reason is the dollar weakness/strength. You know china/india cant triple oil in 6 months and then reduce it back because in 3 months of theyr "demand", its the dollar.

[straydoggio]

Oil is priced in $

Maybe so but DEMAND DESTRUCTION is closing factories all over export-led China... leading to less oil required.

"Chinas exports growth has slowed significantly over the past two months forcing hundreds of factories to close and bringing thousands of angry workers to the streets."

FORBES (yesterday): "It is very unlikely we'll see any big rise in the price of gasoline" unless world demand for crude shoots up even in the face of recession, which is unlikely.

[straydoggio]

It was the first time that oil had traded below $40 a barrel since January 2005.

Telegraph (yesterday): The price slide was prompted by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said that world oil demand growth was likely to slow more than it previously expected over the next few years.

==

Yes.. I guess lower world demand for oil doesn't impinge on prices.

[asierra1492]

i said demand/supply does have an effect, but by far the biggest effect is from the value of the dollar, since its the reserve curreny.

[straydoggio]

What this guru doesn't understand.. its not all about supply.

It is about the ABILITY TO PAY.

The world is going in to deflation. People have less and less money. Companies too are winding down with pressures on profits.

If fewer people have the ability to pay, demand falls and PRICES FALL.

[ragon144]

56 in crude oil is time and price support. Short this black shit later down to 32 and don't believe this market crier!

[ragon144]

Jim Rogers, sponsored by the Rothschilds... There is no peaking oil! It's just an ideology. ..Remember the shit Steve Harmon told you during the internet boom. Jim, you are an arsehole! Prost!

[smit1807]

...and for anyone who thinks that a field of 50 Billion barrels is an elephant field, you are delusional. The world uses that in less than a year and a half.  Elephant field? Psssh...More like mouse.

[RedDelPaPa]

Lets talk about prudhoe bay in Alaska and the gull island fields that were discovered in the 70's but not allowed to be used. Jim is mistaken. There is oil out there, and big oil knows where. Peak oil is a fraud being perpetrated on us all by the powers that be. Look up Lindsey Williams and the energy non crisis. Vital info everyone should know.

[joesixpack333]

Gull island supposedly has several times the oil that Iraq has.. but they want oil to go to 150 bbl before they release any news.. and they won't admit to the size of it to keep prices up.. it's all a total fraud..

[smit1807]

You mean the crazy baptist that believes in abiotic oil? HA. Please... Peak oil is not a theory, it is a fact of geology that has proven itself over and over again, and will manifest itself worldwide, too. It is simple math. What is not to believe?

[getplaning]

Petroleos Brasil just found a gigantic oil field right offshore. That's not to say oil isn't going to $200, I'm just pointing it out. It will take ten years for that oil to reach the market.

[YZippy]

Looks like Chavez might have an Elephant field in the Orinco also. Possible 50 billion barrel find. Still. With rising demand and a cartel controlling supply $200 might be spot on. Rogers has been keenly accurate lately.

[dannychung1]

jim rogers was once a trading partner with george soros. he is known for being very bullish on china. but i wouldn't be.

[Sclorched]

He was a junior partner with Soros, they haven't spoken in decades

[straydoggio]

Who is this Jim Rogers guy?

He looks like some stall-holder at a travelling fair trying to make you play his rigged game.

The oil companies say we still have lots of oil (for couple of decades at least).... but this guy acts like he's studied everything about oil and knows better than everyone.

Utter crap.

[glassvision]

He's just a common American from a poor Alabama family, made himself some money in 1979-80 gold, 1987 black monday,and some farm stuff, like soybean, cotton. Average guy, not some high class guy with inherited wealth who doesn't pay tax, like Queen Elizabeth.

[AntiPsychopath]

@glassvision She has never worked in her life, what are you talking about??? all queens do is steal from their people under a legal umbrella. Your economics are surely poor, but it also seems that your politics are a little dodgy too...perhaps, you inherited your wealth and therefore have been rendered incompetent....lol, that might make you a "high class guy"....lol...sheeesh what a douche

[drumsnbass]

Jim ROgers was a partner of George Soros at the time they broke the bank of England. While Rogers will not say what his net worth is, it is probably north of $700 million or more. He is a super-smart, plain speaking guy. You should have 1/2 his brains & .001% of his cash and you'd be happy.

[straydoggio]

Ok so he was smart enough to tag along to some brilliant minds like Soros and work his way up with some good cash generating deals.... but seriously.... he is speaking as an authority on oil in this clip... virtually calling the oil companies liars about their reserves.

[LLCoolPass]

It is proven that many of the OPEC-member nations have cooked books on their reserves.

[straydoggio]

We are going in to depression with crushing deflation.... near world-wide. There is plenty of oil.

Countries in recession/depression don't use as much oil. This fella is gonna have a long long wait to see $200 a barrel. More like $40 a barrel near future, and lower after that.

[yukonjac]

i bet china wont feel the hit that the united states is gonna feel. And when china's demand for oil goes up, the US will be in deep shit.

[jcrowe1950]

Jim Rogers has a good point. Once the effect of the current round of fiat money creation takes effect and the bailouts, you will see $200 a barrel oil, I predict. You will also see price inflation again once the short-term dollar frenzy is over. Good luck with that $40 a barrel oil thing though.

[straydoggio]

What are you talking about?

NEW YORK (AFP) — Oil prices dropped on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling close to 50 dollars a barrel, as weak energy demand and the global credit crunch pressured the market.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), light sweet crude for December delivery slipped 77 cents to close at 53.62 dollars a barrel. In pre-market trade the contract fell to 53.30 dollars, the lowest point since January 2007.

[jcrowe1950]

What I'm talking about is the relative value of the dollar as a currency. This current trend of deflation depends on two factors...the destruction of demand and the perception that the dollar is strong. The former can and will get worse, but the dollar is set for a huge fall. Things like $1000 gold has only a relative value for what $1000 will buy, such that the relationship between finished goods and value of gold, for instance, remains more stable.

[straydoggio]

OK - now I'm get you. Yes; but I also look at the rest of the world and see problems in most other regions, for their currencies too.

Main problem: US and near Rest of The World has boomed since WW2. Last 30 years credit and finance markets a key element.

Credit economy = dead = big problem.

It isn't even like manufacturing is the answer.

Massive world-wide oversupply now to turn stuff out cheap. Yet credit markets dead means can't sustain premium prices to support wages & prices.

[straydoggio]

And the world is entering deflationary depression now... as a consequence of one reaching the peak of the greatest periods of credit expansion ever.

Prices for stuff is falling. Less credit to spend, not as many people with cash to spend... = prices fall... businesses lower prices to compete and capture those who can spend.

Inflationary depression would wipe out the financial economy totally... so the choice will always be deflation, no matter how painful it is.

[straydoggio]

On a previous comment I got -6 thumbs... and since then the oil price has plummetted !

Go worship this guru lol...

I shorted oil from $130 for massive profits.

I hope you lot who dismissed me have gone long for $200 oil. Complain to your guru.. with his $200 predictions.

[RobTzu]

Get your sleds out fellas we on the downhill slide of the peak. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!

[calripson]

The oil is in Siberia, under the Artic Ocean, in Canada (tar sands) and in Venezuela. Good for Putin, Chavez, and Canucks !

[certifiedcritic]

I don't mind oil at 200,atleast my bicycle business will see a "modest growth for the coming quarters "and we're gonna see all those morons on their cellphones while riding a bike.

[mgilbo1]

Finding a big oil reserve is one thing, making it profitable to get out of the ground and bring to market is another.

[tohtiengchiah]

Maria is hot !

[peterkolar]

What about Jim?

[tohtiengchiah]

not so hot

[mbamber]

Huge reserve just found off Brazil...interesting

[talktal]

it's not crude, it's harder to drill for. it's there, but it comes at a price.

[johnc1119]

I think he means one that will produce 1 million bpd (the last one found was Cantarell in 1976)

[flyermi]

This guy is so wrong. There is plenty of oil out there. Many new untapped resources that big oil know exactly where they are. Some reserves are known to be larger than the Saudis

[uclaztec2]

There is some truth to what you said. People have to view oil like diamonds. Yes, there is a finite amount available, but there are still loads on reserve and the prices for the two items are jacked up by hugely successful marketing campaigns.

[trublu97]

Yeah, the only thing between us and this massive amount of oil is 5 miles of ocean..

Keep buying SUV's suckers. Keep whistling past the graveyard...Keep building McMansions 60 miles out in the country. This oil price hike is 'speculation"

[amsd1231]

okay dude here is the thing. I don't know about the plenty part, but I know there is oil left in the world because OPEC rations it and its gonna last another 20 years, and they might find a huge reserve else where in the world by that time, but do u honestly believe it can supply 3 billion people in asia who now has plenty of cash to spend on cars factories or where ever they use oil in. No of course not. If Chinese ppl start driving SUVs like Americans, oil is gonna hit $400 not $200.