Interesting Argument About Global Warming

[shaokem]

its a good attempt... but you still can't say that our earth will go through so much change and we dont know how warm the earth will get before it starts to cool off again. its all cycles, and humans like for centuries before we jump to conclusions and try to explain something that we dont fully understand.

[jpjr0]

my teacher showed this to our class, it makes soooooooooooo much more sense than everything else! it even got my dad to start being more careful about pollution and recycling and all of that! thanks!

[mechaghostman2]

You do realize that in like 500 A.D. the vikings were farming, but then it got cold. Now it's going back the way it was. It's just cycles.

[caspert79]

Would a lack of action against GCC cause global catastrophe? The midievel warm period led to increased economic wealth due to better crops. A witch to alternative energy sources will definitely have a negative impact on developing countries who simply cannot afford it. Also, there is a possibility that global warming is out of human control. Taking actions against GCC then, would lead to an even worse case scenario: global economical depression on top of the problems caused by global warming.

[bezvezeceda]

To everyone, never absolutely never make decisions this way.NEVER. If you think like this than you believe in GOD, if you believe in GOD please stay out of science. Science is very complicate and this "ARGUMENT" has nothing to do with scientific thinking.

[dnasixmusic]

Why are we still debating whether or not we are creating an imminent environmental disaster? You know what it's ok. Nevermind. Global disaster brings people together...

[SirFinklebottom]

By this logic invading iraq was the right thing to do.

[vaughnoutdoor]

So unless you allow yourself to think further than four boxes, then you will be taking on everything you come up against, and please don't pick and choose issues with which you want to take action. I wish you the best of luck, what's the worst that could happen?

[wonderingmind42]

vaughnoutdoor: this is the guy in the video (wonderginmind42). If you check out my three follow-up videos titled "Patching Holes" #1-3, I think you'll see I've addressed your concern. Take the 24 minutes to view them. What's the worst that could happen? ;-)

[ipoopX9]

i agree

[vaughnoutdoor]

That is the nicest leap from conclusion to conclusion I have ever heard. It was at least given the ol' college try. So your basic conclusion is take action on issues you don't know for sure about, like WMD's, terrorism, illegal immigration. All of these can be plugged into your complex 4-box formula and you will need to come to the same conclusion you have regarding global warming, that choosing not to do anything is the worst option...

[sentance]

i haven't read the other comments so i don't know if this has been said already. sorry if i'm repeating what others have said.

the immediately apparent problem with this to my mind is one of weighting. presumably those who are against the cost of taking action will will argue that the probability of row True is so low that choosing column A is an guarantee unnecessary expenditure

[metroid74]

the flaw is you assume we know what to do about the problem of global warming. and until we find out the true cause colum B is the clear choice. Because colum A is a lose lose situation. Colum B there is at least 1 potential win. If we act do the wrong thing then we could end up with A1+B2.

[whatsyourimpact]

I strongly agree with simple yet straight forward analysis. Climate change is the most important problem facing humanity, but what can we do as individuals? The answer is a lot. Many of the everyday actions that we do as individuals directly or indirectly create greenhouse gas emissions, which end up causing climate change. To learn more go to our site, read the information there and use our calculator to see what's your impact:

whatsyourimpact . co . nr

[metroid74]

Really the only choice is B. A leads to 2 bads, B leads to 1 bad 1 good. We have no idea currently what causing global warming CO2 is a red hearring. Therefore if we make the wrong assumtion and restrict CO2 and it is not the cause and the casue is something else we've spent the billions gone in to depression and still have the huge negative effects of global warming.

[SirFinklebottom]

First of all, I think the bottom right box is considerably more exaggerated (plus all the benefits of increased CO2 and temp are missing) than the top left. But even then, even if the bottom right was a worse scenario than the top left, the risk is a probability weighted hazard, and thus talking about risk injects the probability that AGW is true or not.

[goatonastick1]

Another important thing that you fail to explain is why taking precautionary measures would lead to a depression--several of the biggest companies in America have already issued a statementn that the innovantion required to combat global warming is more of a business opportunity than anything. We need strong measures taken now, as global warming is almost DEFNIITELY happening and there is no reason to think that there will be consequences if for impossible reason it "doesn't"

[goatonastick1]

one thing that is wrong with this, and it is VERY wrong, is that this suggets that there is an equal possibility of global warming being 'real' and it not. It is safe to say there is universal consensus among scientists that human-induced climate change is real, and will lead to a situation similar to your 'end of world one'--there is absolutely no reasonably convincing argument that can disprove that

[R3galis]

Remeber also that he is taken this to the extreem! But he have a really good point there.. :/ And it's scary as hell!

[arcitens]

The most interesting and scary point is that the "No" column is by default, while "Yes" requires active action.

[reasicable]

mccarrollud,

I think it's fair to say that a global depression would not happen due to taking action to stop global warming, especially in light of the WGIII report from the IPCC. However, he also points out in his chart that the global depression consequence is also added into the no/true square. It's only one of many, though. There are also all of the many climate issues we'd deal with and all of the societal and policital problems that would arise from those.

[mccarrollud]

Your where correct in stating the oversimplification of your chart. You fail to discus the effects of global depression. Global depression would have the same effects as your "worst that could happen" scenario. So what is the worst that could happen, we get it wrong. This is a serious issue that needs to be debated using science as a guide. It rarely is a good option to take Pascal's Wager.

[braap02]

this better change the planet

[z3r0k00l]

well, the man has spoken...