Peter Schiff VS Mish Shedlock by Max Keiser - inflation VS deflation debate

[MetalHeadViking]

Max Kaiser is a fucking fraud!

With Peter Schiff its about LONG TERM! LONG TERM!

Kan that stupid socialist read this!

[JesusChrist5000]

i'm wathcing this October 2011, and it seems the whole thing is repeating itself again. First a period of deflation, followed by inflation followed by a deflationary crash again. I am guessing it will be a repeat of 2008 - 6 months of deflation followed by 2 years of inflation??? But.. after each cycle, commodities bottoms are higher and higher.

[KhmerD0g]

@JesusChrist5000

Yes, cycle of inflation and deflation repeating until one day confidence is gone and we will have hyperinflation. End game is a bitch when u get to live through it. LOL

[NoisemakerArrow]

Is Stacy washing the dishes during this video?

[oldickeastman]

Peter's recommendations underperform next to Mish's. But it is the call to buy gold and expect hyperinflation that is in question. Yet Rothschild is buying dollars with his gold sold to rubes who listen to Schiff -- selling at a high. Schiff, Celente, Beck, North, Rockewell and all "Austrians" are shills drumming up sales for the big man who wants dollars. Rothschild's Goldman Sachs etc trades securities for dollars, not gold (QE FOMC secur purchases). Rothschild expects deflation and so ..

[ryanskapa]

@luvanicebum I think you want to spell "loosing" as "losing". Then, your sentence would make sense.

I'm as pro-Schiff as anybody, but during the crash of 2008, which Schiff predicted but couldn't avoid, Schiff's portfolio went down somewhere between 40%-50%. How did you manage to avoid that loss? Oh, you mean now, your portfolio has recovered to pre-2008 levels? If that is so, you did "lose" a dime, but, luckily, it found it's way back to you.

Also, there is no "God" so just thank your Peter.

[angstotheclown]

All jews.The International Jew by Henry Ford. Read it. The jew is never a nationality. They are always the jew. They own the world now and look at what happens. They intend to steal everything and then kill the goy. Poisoning of the food and water supply. See Beef Products, Inc. run by the jew Roth. Mixing animals parts they used to throw away or turn into dog food or grease with AMMONIA, A DEADLY POISON. Its now in ALL hamburger in the USA. Welcome to the new world kiddies. You are goy.

[RandomUsername8236]

@angstotheclown You are sick. Hopefully since your name has clown in it this is some sort of joke. Corruption comes from all religions and races. Open your mind, you unevolved madman.

[mcbowler]

This is why I don't understand giving money directly to the banks... the money should have been given to the people so that the banks would lend money in order to try to capture that money through interest rates. I don't understand why nobody but me holds the position of increasing interest rates and a "tax credit" to everyone equally to prevent deflation.

Why would a bank lend money if there isn't enough out there to pay it back with interest?

[musclegrab]

I agree with both these guys on a lot of things, but Mish is on deflation. The collapse in the amount of perceived wealth represented by the collapse of the housing bubble has an enormous deflationary effect.

That said, inflation and deflation of the dollar can be avoided if the government set the value of the dollar to something of concrete value. In this deflationary environment, they could actually be buying gold with printed dollars to keep the dollar stable.

[Mr2wings]

Where did you get that $100,000 bill......Under your mattress?

[tmac9938]

peter is still correct

[rizdraver]

Outside of predicting the crisis, Peter has been wrong the majority of the way since the fall of 08. How could you possibly say that a theme of 2009 was inflation?? The deflationary pressures are overwhelming.

[Visfen]

How could you not? Gold reach all time high several times, dollar reached 20 year lows.

[trent2429]

Now that 2009 is over, we can check to see if Mish wiped the floor with Schiff again. From "5 stock picks from Peter Schiff for 2009" article, published 1/23/09:

Ascendas REIT - +60%

Duet Group - +10%

Singapore Petroleum - +360% (bought out by PetroChina 9/7/09)

Skyworth Digital - +1558% (no, that's not a type-o. 15 bagger)

Vitasoy Intl. - +70%

An equal weighting on 1/1/09 returned 412% for the year, not counting dividends. Anyone know how Mish's portfolio performed?

[Lot3ch]

Wow, so Peter Schiff evenly divided his portfolio over those exact five stocks? I didn't know fund managers do that kind of stuff.

[Luvanicebum]

@trent2429

...and all these stocks are just getting started.

Thank GOD I went with Europac. I've doubled my portfolio in addition to not loosing a dime in the crash. The guy to me is my hero.

[ryanskapa]

@Luvanicebum What does "loosing" a dime mean?

[Luvanicebum]

@ryanskapa

I mistyped you nitpicking ninny.

[mjlanglois2]

@trent2429 I remember looking up Mishs' companies portfolios and it wasnt so good. Google 'sitka pacific performance.' 2 portfolios *lost* money and one gained 17 percent.

Stubborn people dont make good investment advisors.

[ChaoticSouls]

I think shedlock is correct. We are already in deflation.

[judutchinski]

Go Schiff!!!

[thane17]

Max is thinking way too short term here. If one wanted to be a trader then following the deflationist view might yield some results, but Schiff and most other inflationists being investors, they are looking for the end result and anything in between, like 2008, is just market noise.

Max said, it doesn't matter how much money is printed if there is no velocity, or loans being made. True, but the moment that money takes off we don't just have high inflation, but hyperinflation!!

[TheSophist2007]

@thane17 the question is whether the money will be allowed into circulation from the banks, will the fed claw back the dollars when the banks are back on their feet. no money has actually been printed, only bank deposits via the fed.

[TheGreatPenetrator]

Max used to be a Wall street player, which Peter clearly insn't. I don't know about Mish but Peter talks about long term trends.

[ChaoticSouls]

Mish is right in this case I believe. Schiff forgot japan lost decade which was an example where inflation is not a problem.

[cyrusp100]

You cannot compare the USA with Japan. Japan was a creditor nation with high savings. The USA now is more similar to Wiemar Germany - highly indebted and without the productive base to grow out of their debt.

[ChaoticSouls]

Japan has more debt than gdp. At some point they lost all those savings. They still haven't seen any inflation from it. Now I'm sure we both agree what government is doing is bullshit with all bailouts though.

[joker2x]

@cyrusp100 AND Japan was producing and exporting goods.

[LesPaulElitist]

Peter never said all accounts were down 40-60%.A few highly speculative were.Overall, that was simply not the case. Europac isn't a managed account.His investors are buying securities on their own.Europac did great the previous 8 years prior.What securities didn't have a problem last year that weren't highly speculative? Peter invests long term and has been highly successful. Those 2008 Euro losses have been erased. Max, you're a shill and you've lost all the credibility garnered up till now.

[bubbadankness]

Max, you were on television waving toilet paper around, saying it would be worth more than the dollar... now you're rambling about deflation... hey Max, how well did you do in 2008?

[kaihansen665]

And once the government spending props up prices, then the banks, and not just local banks, are going to start getting rid of dollars pushing prices up again. Then the general public will follow and this will push prices up even more. Still at this point the total catastrophe can be avoided. But what is very likely to happen is that we are going to start hearing voices complaining about ¨the shortage of money¨. If this voices are heard, then nothing can stop hyperinflation.

[kaihansen665]

Why the ¨velocity of money¨ as you say is so low right now? As you pointed out, it´s because banks doesn´t lend. They are sitting on top of a lot of excess reserves. When we get to this point Chicago runs out of answers. But then keynesians come to the rescue and say: ¨We are facing a liquidity trap. If banks don´t lend then the government has to go out and spend. Monetarism is not enough, Fiscalism is what we need.¨ Then you are going to start seeing your velocity

[kaihansen665]

NO MAX, NO.

A concept like the velocity of money has no application in economics despite what Chicagoites can say. We are not treating with physical objects here like rocks, but with human actions, with purposes.

At first the money supply allways increases a lot more than prices. That´s because people still have expectations for prices to return to their prior level. Once they realize the government is using inflation as permanent way to finance itself, all will be over.

[dellwon]

Mish for U.S senate

[Nuanceqwest]

In society, in a crowd, unfortunately, the loudest voice wins which is not necessarily the correct one.

[ytertyu]

I read and heard both ,Peter and Mish talking about economy . Peter is just another wall street idiot without any talent or intellect . so , screw him , and those who think he's so great .

[ecnerwal999]

Such nonsense. Max Keiser is totally biased, he obviously thinks the deflationists are right without even understanding the economics behind their points of view. Peter Schiff's financial performance from 2001-2007 likely outperformed shedlock's. The U.S. is like Germany, during the Weimar Republic, they have massive debt and barely any productive capacity. The government is far too large and they will not hesitate to print money.Money-printing is inflation, and it will cause prices to skyrocket

[bearcat648]

@ecnerwal999 Yeah, exactly. Schiff has done well for about a decade, recommending gold when it was under $300. He had a horrible year in 2008, but most people had a bad year in 2008. Schiff has done extremely well in 2009, which in most cases more than made up for his losses in the previous year. I don't know how Shedlock has done lately, but I am not as supportive of his thesis over the long term.

[Azbx23]

Accurate analysis of Schiff and Mish.

Schiff is dropped the ball big time in 2008 and even with this 60% rally, I doubt his accounts are anywhere near 2007 levels. Mish probably made some money in 2009 as well, he runs a hedged portfolio.

The first rule of investing is DON'T LOSE MONEY.

[christo930]

Over the long term, Shiff has done very well. Anyone can draw up a certain time frame and say look what happened, when the investor has a buy and hold strategy. Portfolio values are meaningless anyway and Schiff's clients were all holding dividend producing assets and the dividend isn't affected by share price. So the price can drop by 90%, but if the profits stay the same, the dividend still pays the same amount. Buy low, sell high is a speculators game, what you want is INCOME.

[Azbx23]

"So the price can drop by 90%, but if the profits stay the same, the dividend still pays the same amount."

Have you ever heard of a dividend cut or the need to cash out?

He lost 50% for his clients in 2008. If he had netted compound annual REAL returns of 5% for 15 years on an initial investment of $1,000 and then lost 50% in the 16th year, his clients would've been left with the original $1,000. However, inflation would've eroded the purchasing power of that $1,000 to $400.

Down 60%!

[christo930]

I know 2 people invested through Europac and are not down overall and have dividends. They didn't buy at the high or sell at the lows. Furthermore, Shiff's accounts have done well during the last year, especially with dollar dropping from nearly 90 down to 75. They are not leveraged (I don't even think he offers margin accounts) so they didn't need to cash out. A lot of companies lost stock value even though they weren't poorly managed or loosing money, it was just a wave of selling.

[Azbx23]

I'm glad your friends did alright, but I don't see how you can arrive at the conclusion that his clients have benefited from his money management services when every single one of his favorite investments, somewhat excluding gold, made huge moves against him in 2008.

I'd put my money with Mish over Schiff any day.

Fyi, I have accounts with neither. I manage my own portfolio.

[christo930]

Schiff is open about the fact that he doesn't try to time markets and the fact that his portfolio went down in 2008 isn't really a big deal, it's regained almost all the losses. Misc has a more risky investment strategy, the fact that it paid when everyone else was losing doesn't really mean much. Warren Buffet lost money in 2008 too, but does that mean he is a poor investor? Not all Shiff accounts were down ether. Compare Shiff to 90% of American investment advisers, it will be in his favor.

[njedinjedi]

Keiser is not fair to Schiff... all Schiff seeks to do is to get his clients out of the dollar

[wanabee100]

Peter Schiff don`t care if the money he manage lose big...he makes his money on fee`s.

[ChaoticSouls]

mish and peter still are austrians so they agree on a lot of things

[trevormac77]

The only thing I can't understand is Mish keeps saying that private lending is crucial to inflation and so inflation won't happen, but Weimer printed money to cover Germany's debt's from WWI and destroyed their currency, so is not the US more comparable to Germany than to Japan which he always uses as an example of why the US will have deflation? I think Schiff will be vindicated in the next number of years because the US can't cover it's foreign debts and will pass that debt to tax payers.

[trevormac77]

I also think that it was kind of a cheap shot on Schiff as Shiff explained that it was a couple of guys who came in in 08 and who were invested heavily in a couple of areas that got hammered. They tipped off someone about their losses and it started circulating on the net. Schiff has also said that many of his investments have come roaring back in the last year.

[PEEKOIL35]

Schiff missed on little thing. Forced liquidation in his thesis the last 5 years. He predicted the crash. He didn't anticipate forced selling of commodities for people to stay solvent. thats the only thing hes missed. Gimme a break......

HES AN AMERICAN HERO maybe we should have more of him!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PEEKOIL35]

my schiff portfolio was up in 2008.

Depends when you got in. Shorties won in 2008

Stop trying to discredit Schiff hes been so accurate and trying to help the little guy.

[szol2005]

Peter Schiff + 1

Mish Shedlock -1

Max Keiser -1

[ItsFazsha]

Mish (Sitka Pacific, Oct 2008 newsletter) and Schiff are both long commodities and gold, so they are both betting the same way for opposite reasons.

[89integra123456]

Kind of silly comparison.

Shedlock must be desperate for attention (clients)... thus think it is wise to attack Schiff. But as they say: Blowing out someone else's candle doesn't make yours burn any brighter. (it just makes you look unprofessional and desperate).

Give me any great invest strategy, and I'll give you a short term window which that strategy would've lost money.

Short term "deflation" in prices, maybe.

But your crazy if you don't see big inflation long term.

Schiff is right.

[jeepndesert]

homes deflated so the people lost their assets to the banks. they lost their jobs. they lost their money. all of that was inflationary. the central bank gained a bunch a interest and a bunch of cash, which is inflationary. banker inflation cancelled the people's deflation, but in that, a massive transfer of wealth happened.

[nolan067]

Peter Schiff is right.

Inflation is on the rise, and we are overspending our defecits, mastercards, and overliving our means as americans.

[rudyt]

Max ur so way off.Don't even try to compare Schiff and Mish.Mish will be made to look silly very soon.Ok ,so what Mish is saying is that deflation will make dollars more valuable and be able to all these falling things,ya right.

[Finnbar01]

Oh damn it. I really like Max Keiser but his analysis of Peter Schiff's startegy is wrong. Will Max make it into the 'Peter Schiff was right video' part 2?

[shall7070]

I went with Europac in March of '09 and when I last checked (in early August I believe), my portfolio was up 89%

I understand 2008 was rough for Schiff, but I would assume that much of those 2008 losses have been made up this year. His investments are long term. He's not a day trader.

I have no doubt that Inflation is coming

[SeductionChronicles]

What the hell is with the restaurant background noise??

[ARAKARABLUE]

They record the show weekly from this cafe.

[mindcloudbeta]

I have to this is a briiliant explanation.

[lkr3bt]

If we are in deflation, why gold is almost $1,000. It should be $200 by now. May be people are expect USD value to go down? Does USD value go down = inflation???????????????????

[Strettger]

A decrease in currency value is inflation. Deflation is when stocks, commodities ect are constantly getting cheaper and cheaper as demand collapses, thus making people who would buy in an inflation (normal market) to wait for the price to bottom en masse. Which creates a death spiral known as deflation.

[pathologyex]

Gold is rising because the risk of defaults rises during deflation. Lehman bonds anyone?

[hkrainman]

The simple fact is -

What you want (TV, PC, Gagets)will get really expensive!

What you need(Wheat, Grain, milk & meat) will get really cheap!

[jestadt29]

you have that backwards

[TheEVEInspiration]

Fist stock prices are the worst indicator to judge by. It is as saying that the stock prices are always right, which was obviously false just before the big bang end 08.

Markets in a crisis are driven by sentiment, not rational thought. Then to use 08 performance and thus the 08 sentiment to determine who will be right in the future is ridiculous. Short term everything is possible. To see who is right you would have to wait longer to start seeing the trends form.

[TheEVEInspiration]

To add to that, next to stock price is also the factor of dividend. If you have a low valued stock that pays great dividend, you are actually doing better then a when having the same dividend that pays the same. Simply because you can buy more, much more of them and thus increase income.

The low value of a stock is this irrelevant until you sell it. It alone and by itself thus cannot be a measure of performance in any scenario.

[panther9mm]

I guess what you are saying is that we can rely on the dividend that citigroup gives, and we should buy more to increase income.

[myluck100]

Max Keiser started sounds like a idiot now. One side he is in big favor or deflation and then he tells you to buy gold. Duh.

[zmelli]

I would rather be on the Inflation side and wrong than to be caught unprepared for inflation. Crowded trade? I do not know anybody else buying Gold and Silver?

[TheGoldTheory]

As i have said many time before only investments (stocks/commodities), houses and cars are cheaper. In fact everything except the above is still going UP in price, look at sugar - all time high.

Deflation is defined as a sustained decrease in GENERAL price levels. This is neither - it is disinflation caused by leveraged investors exiting the market place - a bursting bubble.

To say that no one has benefitted is ridiculous, I for won have made nearly 10x my money since 2006.

[TheGoldTheory]

Oh no Keiser is a shill too, I thought he was one of the good guys - should have known better from one of the inventors of derivatives.

Peter was right about everything, the only piece that is missing is the dollar collapse and that is coming - thus he WILL be right unlike everyone else.

Keiser said comodity bubble? What bubble in history popped and reinflated in 6 months? Moron.

What we have seen is disinflation in a massive inflation spike. NOT DEFLATION

[debtinterest]

dumbasses!!! it is both inflation and deflation!!!!!!

[jobrien2001]

What is their youtube channel?

[audiohi]

What peter was wrong about, is actually quite funny. He thought people would be smart enough to get out of the American dollar. He was wrong lol. Peter underestimated peoples stupidity, thats it.

[stracinsrt4]

I agree that more money = inflation but what I don't see picking up is the velocity. I mean, how can banks dump there massive reserves via loans and credit when people don't qualify, have jobs or already are foreclosed on?

[captivatedeyes]

Velocity is a temporary thing and can change overnight. It's like filling up an inflatable pool, everything is fine until the fat guy falls on the edge and next thing you know the dog is on a floating ice chest.

[badonkadonk34]

I hate to see 2 Ron Paul loving Austrians fight, but I have been with Mish on this issue. The shadow banking system has imploded and banks/consumers are not lending/borrowing the reserves. Mish is not a perma deflationist, just what he is seeing the near term. On the FX front, Mish is in the camp that doesn't see how china could remove its dollar peg. I'm not so sure there + every dollar they loan us allows them more "leverage" over our idiot pols. I am giving to Schiff campaign though.

[jeepndesert]

timing is everything and there are multiple variables to consider. hard to predict when and where inflationa and deflation will happen. real estate did deflate which cancelled a lot of inflation. the federal reserve by nature will always inflate. overall inflation has occurred. fertilizer, seed, lawn mowers, cigarettes, and food have all gone up significantly over the past two years. the price of top soil in a bag even went up by 20%.

[auctionmusic]

real estate deflation cancelled inflation allright, trouble is it cancelled jobs, eveyone's net worth, investment markets (so everyone's 401k went into the tank), banks, credit availability, broker firms, mortgage companies, countries (iceland) towns (norway),,small business, commercial real estate, etc You've got to understand this is not deflation, this is out and out depression....no one benefits from this...no one.....and unlike the 30's all that is left is a massive pile of debt....

[jeepndesert]

i agree with your analysis. it was a massive transfer of wealth. long-term it is inflation because it is debt, so people will become landless peasant fucks after they lose their secured assets and owe a bunch of debt. the banks benefit because they retain the value of their loot and will greatly increase it in the long-term since they have the money-making assets, both unsecured and secured.

[jeepndesert]

knowing what will happen when is speculation. knowing that 23.7 trillion is out there is very troubling since once it is spent, there will be inflation. inflation caused by monetary supply will have a lag. monetary inflation doesn't happen at a push of a button, it happens because as the new money is spent there is increased demand and reduced supply.

[jeepndesert]

flawed analysis. inflation vs. deflation is multi-dimensional. increased debt does not cancel monetary inflation. it is more that the banks horded the cash that was given to them while they papered over some losses and spent some causing some inflation. at the same time credit to consumers were being withheld, causing deflation. also, certain sectors had bubbles burst (mortgages, stocks, oil, commodities) while other sectors continued to inflate and deflate due to basic supply/demand issues.

[Consta76]

There can be absolutely no doubt that inflation is in play. Regardless of what anyone says, I know how much more I pay for just about everything today compared to 2008. Food, water, electricity, health costs and insurance have all gone up substantially in the last 12 months.

Statistics can be presented and interpreted in many ways. But its crystal clear to me that inflation is a real factor for the average person.

Australia.

[jeepndesert]

some things go down in price. some things go up in price. there has been a lot of volatility. real estate deflated. everything else went up in price.

[jeepndesert]

inflation sucks when wages go down or stagnate and when you have savings.

[dankeewolnir4042]

i think if mish's portfolio is better than schiffs, and schiff's stock picks are down, that would be mostly due to schiff not having accounted for all the variables in global stocks not because his fundamentals are wrong. he probably doesnt know all about the overseas stock market, although probably much more than most ami brokers. im not sure i agree with what max says about "just look at their portfolios to see who knows best". sure that tells some, but not all. MS & PS both share some truth

[ukjw2]

christo930 is on point

[savemyplaylist]

Has Max bought a steak or hamburger in the US lately? I don't give a shit what commodities are trading at, that's irrelevant, there is price inflation and I feel it every day I go to the store.

That price inflation was created from inflation in the money supply whether Max likes to admit it or not.

[mrcool011]

Good point! The fact Oil is back to 70 and gold is almost at a 1,000 points to inflation. Of course it's not as bad as last year because velocity has not picked up, but if it gets back to previous levels, last year we had too much money thus high inflation, now we have even more money so if velocity gets back up we'll have higher inflation then last year. We may have asset deflation, but commodities will cost a lot and continue to rise.

[christo930]

I don't get the deflation. If the new money that has been created doesn't get loaned out, then why create it in the first place? The fed keeps saying they will pull the rug out if inflation comes but isn't that the whole point of creating the money? You don't create money so you can pull it out of the system as soon as anyone tries to spend it, right? It would be like me printing out 100 bills on my printer, telling myself I am rich and then burying the money.

[christo930]

You can't look at 1 years return on the worst stock market crash in 80 years and say that someones investment strategy is poor. Peter Schiff is a long term investor who makes no beef about that fact. If you bought in at the high, you might be down 20% or so now, but if you have been investing since 2001 you are way up AND have been getting great dividends. You don't loose money when stocks go down and you don't make money when stocks go up, you make or loose when you sell.

[chromedreamz]

isnt he a SHTFer, Inflation/dollar collapse?? no more??, and Peter shiffs accounts went up in 09 about 30% from their lows (I Think)?

[kdcruz75]

SOCIALISM is inevitable ..but the amerikas should not stand for the brainwashing.....they need a nice smack to get back to the real economy...so pray Obama grows a funny looking moustache , shows his true colours soon and gets it over with ASAP...

it'll be refreshing comin' out of the SOCIALIST rear end just don't get too comfy licking Obama's posterior

[kdcruz75]

the clue might be in what the politicians are trying to push ...SOCIALISM

health care , th autoindustry, banking, criminalising unlicensed small farms etc..Obama's speech to the kids to get ready for socialism...

deflation followed by deflation and rationing..increasing govt jobs will increase tax revenues..that will need to fund a low quality dollar..amerika could be the next source for cheap labour ..

so now u have socialist China, India, Japan(according to fulford) and now Soviet Amerika

[kdcruz75]

make that deflation in property, deflation in credit , hyperinflation in necessities...then rationing ....then SOCIALISM..

and the subsidised credit for bankers who get cheap credit to create a carry trade for their new asian assets ...WIN WIN for banksters

that goes without saying ..they invented COMMUNISM

[strongbadassman]

Wow MAx, you sure a the king of Consistency! Just a few months ago you were saying Gold is gonna rise to 2000, now you are virtually contradicting many of the things you said, i think the long term will just prove Peter Schiff right again, the drop in prices of oil is not because of deflation but because of the lack of demand, but that is only temporary.

[itallwentwronq]

dollar will be pricless then worthless - I read it somewhere... :)

[jd603]

Keiser is missing the big picture. Interest in the dollar is waning and will continue to wane, while the rest of the world RECOVERS, and the US lags behind, the rest of the world will soak up demand for commodities back to the similar level from 3-4 years ago, after that we will see lots of inflation in commodities, food, energy etc. Also,with the HUGE amounts of dollars being held by foreigners, if they start dumping the value of the dollar drops incredibly and we have MAJOR INFLATION.

[sysopkc]

No shit, as a forex trader weve been seeing it EVERY day. Velocity? He doesnt know what he's talking about. What your saying is almost 100% exact as to what is happening and you can see it in the technicals EVERY day. People are idiots.

[jd603]

Keiser has this wrong. He's going to wind up losing credibility for this... Schiff wasn't wrong, and in fact mid 2009 here we are and his investments are now way back up. If Mish is playing the deflation angle he'd be down even further at this point.

[DavidAKZ]

Does anyone have any useful references about "velocity of money" thanks ?

[Gabor4u]

Peter really needs to admit he was wrong

[CaGgP]

The debts will have to be inflated away because a debt=money system needs to grow exponentialy in order to cover the outstanding interest. The Fed and other CBs will do whatever it takes for this to happen. In the end game we will have inflation.

[Epic878787]

Unfortunately, credit supply can only contract so far, to zero, but the money printing can just keep on going.

[BringBackCapitalism]

Good Job Max. The Forces of Inflation might Kick the Chess Board this next time down, no? In many cases today, investment real estate is worth less than zero (i.e., even if Free and Clear, Negative Income).

[svenp]

Schiff Vs Mish? They're both Austrian economics students, they're a lot closer to one another than this is making out.

Also, Schiff's ideas are are long term. Measure his results since 2002 when he began this trade. What results do you see then? He doesn't attempt to market time and doesn't recommend his clients try either.

Completely different than what Mish does. Sitka does portfolio management, you can't do that job without attempting to time the market.

[CCMochi]

GREAT Point, svenp. In fact, it IS the point. Mish & Peter are both sound money guys. Their fundamentals are aligned. The difference is the avenue at which their respecive prognostications are arrived.

Unfortunately for Mish, his site is devolving rather quickly into a Harvard debate-club like setting, with almost the entire focus being on how his deflation theory makes everyone else look like fools.

Question: When was the last time you heard Peter Schiff bad mouth Shedlock...?

[ExquisiteDoom]

Well, max doesn't seem to understand the austrian view that backs the inflationists. Yes, as long as the credit is not loan you will see deflation, but how long can they hold these loans in? until they get rid of their hundreds of billions of dollars in houses? The real economy is incredibly stagnant because of it, and there is no way to just get rid of this credit without more stagnation. This actually supports Schiff, because the bonds are in a bubble. When they burst, expect inflation.

[4rcane]

I'll take a stab at this. It depends on how the credit was expanded in the first place. If credit was expanded due to increase in production, then the deflation argument will win out. But since US economy is 70% consumer economy and most of the credit that was pumped into the system were created due to consumption, increasing money supply now will only fuel inflation

[ExquisiteDoom]

Agreed.

[psbyowner]

not true today