Seabees Arguing The Monty Hall problem

[mitchconn]

The guy in the hat is an idiot...how in the world does a 1 in 4 chance calculate to 17%??????????? Then a 1 in 3 chance becomes 18%???????

[dmm26x4]

he said he was just throwing out numbers and he knew they werent correct, try paying attention more

[mitchconn]

Ok, you're right he was just throwing numbers of the top if ghis head, but if he couldn't calculate 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 off the top of his head, then I'll still call him an idiot. By the way, do you think he's right that the chances rise to 50% after one of the losing doors is removed from the equation?

[dmm26x4]

lol yea thats true.....but no i do not agree. at the beginning you have a 33% chance of picking the right door and a 66% chance of picking the wrong door, when one door is eliminated, that doesn't change the odds, they are still 33% chance of you picking the right door at the beginning. If you have a chance to switch doors after one is eliminated, do it because you have a 66% chance that you will pick the wrong door at the beginning. ....make any sense? lol i tried to explain it the best i could

[mitchconn]

Yes it makes sense...I understood the concept from the example in the movie 21 (ther book is better) and the clip from the TV show Numbers. The numerous imdb posts on 21 are very helpful too. later, dude!

[mtndewjh]

I think i see the next couple volunteers to go IA!!! Apparently they have nothing better to do.

[SoldierOfTwilight]

oh my gosh :D that's really funny :)