climatology, ocean circulation & climate change

[radovichhillary]

great! good job .. keep it up =)

[elfornse]

I feel sorry for all you Climatologists. Your profession was hijacked and flown into the side of a mountain. Hopefully the world will be spared this draconian tax.

Australia has voted it DOWN. Hopefully the rest of the world will follow suit

[TRUMPHENT]

Sour grapes. NOAA now uses at least 12 different models based on different inputs and formulae to predict hurricane trajectory and strength. Weather is chaotic, climate is not.

It's funny how when historical data is run through the climate prediction models, the results are eerily accurate.

Ice flow in places like Greenland have to be the most difficult to model because ice is solid, then like sand and then solid without notice. Gray should have gone quietly into retirement.

[HarryLeTroisieme]

And you know this how? Are you a climatologist?

DR. Bill Gray is a well-versed atmospheric scientist and everything he said is true. And it's not really "funny" at all how well historical data matches climate prediction models - the models are BASED on past observations, that's how they were derived- when you believe everything an IT specialist says, you're assuming they've given accurate to all the variables of the climate models.

[HarryLeTroisieme]

when you believe everything an IT specialist says in their models, you're assuming they've given accurate values to all the variables of the climate models - let me be the first to tell you - THEY'RE EXAGGERATED.

[TRUMPHENT]

Who has been getting climatology from an IT specialist? Dirty little secret, many climatologists write their own models. Modes that are now old enough to be verified into the future, now present. The university trained climatologists are physicists, mathematicians and programmers. Imagine that! Learning to write code while earning a degree in physics or chemistry! How is that possible?

[coturnix19]

@TRUMPHENT chaotic means that small perturbation leads to large consequences, at least so i think. e.g. small but permanent deficiency of model will lead to large and permanent inability to predict stuff correctly. That's what most people have against it. And indeed, wide laypeople public i getting an impression of the sort 'the more we relay on computers the less we understand of it'

[TRUMPHENT]

@coturnix19 Ever wonder why models are run in multiple iterations? Then, variables are changed and more iterations are run, on the same data.

What you have done is reveal another 28 gigaton gorilla in the room. Lack of education. In your case, multiply that by the coefficient of the inverse of your attention span.

[coturnix19]

@TRUMPHENT if they change variableass the way they want, they can get any answer they want. Why then bother anyway? Don't answer, you woudn't want to waste your time on uneducated troll.

[TRUMPHENT]

@coturnix19 So, how are people that have a keen interest in where climate is going, going to have a clue without models? Those wacky guys at the Pentagon want to know. So do the forecasters at the USDA, etc. etc. What if the sun has a really noisy 20 yr cycle after its 30 years of static output? Nope, that would infer using different variables for prediction.

I guess you're right. Not even the energy industry should be modeling or forecasting.

[rudidas89]

@TRUMPHENT you're definitely right buddy... can't stand these climate-scheptics as they're called.... btw, let me know what u think about my Oceans & Climate Change video (just look in my profile)

[etienbjel]

Haha. Great post. "These damn models!". I agree that modellers discount certain data claiming that it will be insigificant and too time consuming to include. Therefore, they can't account for feedback from those missing variables. Climate modelling is usually based on worst case scenarios because only the most dramatic variable and changes are presented.

[steam0001]

You want to bet the global warmers will blame cooler temps on global warming.

[jupiterjjrm]

Thanks a million for the post.