@TurnKeyOil I would not be surprised if it stays below $100 for a while; although, eventually, it may be priced much, much higher in real terms... the question is, what does that look like in nominal terms?
hey, im doing a presentation in my economics class and i wanted to include your video. i was wondering if it was possible for me to somehow download it, or if you could maybe send it to me?
but this is kinda strange, since more and more money goes to the arab countries, then shouldnt those countries be developing at a super high rate, creating more jobs, and thus opening the doors for imigrants....but still the arabs and other middle eastern people come to Europe and other western countries. Why is that?
Dubai did have a huge construction boom. They had lots and lots of very skilled workers from other countries coming in to do the construction. I know they employed some more local workers, but a lot of it was fairly skilled.
Once the oil price collapsed, most of these foreign workers left for home, going so far as to abandon their cars at the airport. The projects stopped, many apparently at a standstill.
Technically, the peak oil era began in the 70's, because that is when the barrels of oil consumed, per person on Earth, began to slow its growth, and begin to decline.
Ignoring population, peak oil for regular oil that comes up the pipe on its own was probably in the 2005-2007 range.
For the amount of oil available on the export market (important for oil importers like the USA), that peaked prior to 2005.
Even including most everything, the peak was either 2007-2008, or quite soon.
The first trillion barrels of oil that has been consumed has been primarily of the 'cheap easy' variety.
The next trillion barrels is not so cheap and easy. Current estimates place the cost at between US$80 and US$150 per barrel to exploit.
There could be an answer to the problem as far as the physical requirements of an increasing world population is concerned - while reducing the environmental impact at the same time
The bigger problem however is this. Could mankind handle it responsibly?
why is there a decline in production long before it runs out?
shouldn't production continue to rise up untill the point that it runs out?
like if im drinking a bottle of water i dont have difficulty drinking the end of it, i can drink as fast when the bottle is nearly empty as when it was full
The amount of oil being pumped out of any given well starts slow, and increases up to a maximum (steady) flow rate. But as the pressure in the well declines, the flow rate slows, and eventually it becomes necessary to inject water or something else down another well to wash out the remaining oil. Throughout this process, the amount of oil coming out declines, although very slowly.
You could think of this as similar to drinking an Icee or snow cone. It doesn't drop off all at once.
Damn, even are computers made of petroleum. Peak Oil may drive higher employment levels as it will take man power to plow fields. We are dependent on the glboal economy, we may no longer be able to get our favorite fruits or veggies that are in season year around thanks to our highly connected world made possible by oil. LOL you can't ask people to conserve, we are a generation of instant gratification. If children can't wait until high school to lose virginity how can they possibly do this?
good presentation. oil like any other resource is limited. while we wont see life ending, living AS WE KNOW IT right now certainly will be replaced by another way of living. anglo saxon concept of capitalism is one of the main reasons for this situation. every system attains equilibrium whether it likes it or not, humans will too.
1) peak oil is a fake concept, 2) if we run out of oil we'll find an alternative energy to replace it, ie liguid gas and coal. Oil investors like to use peak oil to make accept high oil price.
1. Oil is nonrenewable, therefore, there must be a peak. To believe otherwise is known as "magical thinking".
2. Running out is not the issue. If oil production follows the normal curve, then the last drop won't be got for a hundred years or more. The issue is that the amount of LIQUID energy fuel that works in our current infrastructure will become less and less available, and that will wreck the global economy. The past few years are a case in point.
No doubt. But....doesnt change the FACT that the Earth's fossil fuel's are EXACTLY(not really) like a nice..chilled..pint of beer...mmmmm...every delicious gulp, and yu've got that much less :(
No doubt that traders might exploit the situation...but they exploit every situation dont they? :P
I dont blame yu for denying the logic. Its...difficult to accept.
the energy density of oil is FAR GREATER than any of the other sources you mentioned...so no matter how you slice it, the future will be SHORT on energy...not even considering population growth!!! THAT will only make it WORSE for those living in that time...it won't be fun.
Learn how to grow your own food...or get to know some people with enough land to grow food. Small communities are going to survive and city dwellers are screwed.
If oil is magically created by the Earth then perhaps there would not be a peak.
Fortunately for us, oil is NOT created by magic, and instead it is a finite, non-renewable, exhaustible resource. The "downside", so-to-speak, is that production WILL peak, as does the production of ANY non-renewable resource.
Peak oil has already happened to states, and to countries, and when the number of countries past peak overwhelm those that are still increasing production, peak oil will occur.
This is very good for a 10-minute video. I would also recommend End of Suburbia another great documentary (90 minutes). What shall we do??? One of the more promising projects starting up is the Transition Towns Initiative. I'm going to promote the start of a Transition Town in Pasadena.
Yes, there are lots of good videos out there. The Power of Community is particularly effective because if focused on realistic, down-to-earth solutions.
Some people do believe that oil is magically created. If a person believes that, then it is logical that they dismiss the idea of a maximum rate for oil production.
Of course, we don't live in a magical fantasy land. This is reality. Oil is limited. It is non-renewable. And once it is burned up, it is gone... a.k.a. it is non-recycleable.
For every state in the USA, oil has peaked. For most of the nations of the world, oil has peaked. Peak oil is innevitable. It is reality.
Thus in the face of peak oil and its multiple consequences, which are bound to impact upon almost all aspects of our human standards of life, it seems imperative to get prepared to face all the inevitable shockwaves resulting from that. Preparation should be carried out on individual, familial, societal and national levels as soon as possible. Every preparative step taken today will prove far cheaper than any step taken tomorrow.
I suggest federally supported massive R&D efforts to develop real permanent solutions to energy, as well as large public works projects to develop infrastructure that can use the new energy. Possible energy sources for consideration include Generation 4 nuclear reactors, as well as the environmentally benign and infinitely abundant potential source of energy from magnetically confined Nuclear Fusion. With adequate R&D budgets these technologies can be made realities and propel the future.
Great Presentation. My only criticism is that the problem is being understated. Not only is our food supply dependent on oil and other finite sources of energy, but also our entire infrastructure. From the drywall in our homes to the concrete and steel in our roads, and buildings. Growing locally and the other suggestions don't come close to sustainable living. Without technological solution to energy scarcity all of modern life must be forfeited, including modern medicine.
yes, thanks to a hoax like that is why the oil was 150 per barrel and gas was 4/gallon. Now that the oil price inflation stopped, you don't hear anymore peak oil. If oil is peaking then the oil price should remain high even if the demand goes down a little. In this case the oil fell 80%. This doesn't make any sense. There is no such thing as oil peak. If it was the price would have been high
This is an interesting question, which I believe is "If the global oil supply is reaching the peak, why did the price drop so much?"
This has to do with something called "elacticity". For oil, if there is excess production, the price drops rapidly. If the demand exceeds production, the price rises rapidly.
For oil, the elacticity is about 20. In other words, if the demand falls below production by about 1%, then the price will fall about 20%.
If oil appraoches maximum rate of production then the elasticity concept doesn't applies to the demand and supply equation because even if the demand decreases temporarily, the supply continues to decrease until its gone. If this is the case, then oil producers just cut rate of production and they can maintain their high prices. It doesnt make any sense to give away precious non-renewabel resource like oil just because the demand goes down alittle.
Keep in mind that there are other factors which confound the prices, some of which we know, and some which we do not. One thing that can be factored in that their is oil in storage. When demand decrease unexpectedly this summer, the amount in storage began to increase. This sent a signal to the market as to the price. Then, OPEC claimed to cut back on their exports, and yet the demand fell faster. With demand for those exports even 1% less than the export supply, the price fell.
According to you, it is obvious we have plenty of oil otherwise they wouldn't have reduced the price so drastically. Once again, if oil were limited and world couldn't move without it then all they had to do was reduce production, stored the left over, when the demand came back, which it had too because of China and India, then oil can continue to climb. But this not the case, now oil is cheaper than it was in 1974.
The world will not run out of oil but the world will run out of cheap oil. that should ring the bell but I guess it doesn't that is why had dotcom bubble, real estate bubble, commodities bubbe, oil bubble and other....
no body spoke of the end of oil. the theory is called peak oil because it is the idea that oil AT THE CURRENT prices is the cheapest available resource and will NOT continue to remain cheap. Per your argument, if oil producing countries cut production 2 things happen, prices go up and resources dry up and with it everything that depends on oil (which is everything) . Many opec countries depend on oil as their only source of national income. cutting production is a diccicult decision for them.
Diane Rheim (sp?)on NPR has had a couple of shows addressing Peak Oil with Matt Simmons as a guest. Also,Congressman Roscoe Bartlett presented peak oil to congress in March 05
i did some research on the subject and you are right we are peaking and it started at the end of 2004, things are going to get a lot worse if hubbert is right on this down curve of oil production, even if they discover new fields it will just hold a plateau for a year or two it will never meet the increasing demand unless there is a major economic depression, our way of life will never be the same
if you could sell a widget that everyone needed... and kept raising that price and made more and more money while it still cost you the same to make that widget... would you raise your prices constantly and still see everyone purchasing it... yes... i would.
If there was one single oil company in the world, then this could certainly be the case.
But the prices ARE NOT SET!!! by the oil companies. They are set AT AUCTION on the NYMEX. AUCTION... bidding, less contracts, same demand, higher price. Period.
See "Peak Oil in the Pit" and the CNBC vids on the NYMEX.
The one thing that CAN happen is that a national oil company can limit exports (less contracts), but that is their right, because it is their oil.
And, yes, because people have not changed their lifestyles, and there are no substitutes out there, they have to have their gas to drive all over the place. (the demand is inelastic) On the supply side, the rate at which the oil can be supplied starts to drop because all of the easy oil is gone. They have to move to more challenging and expensive places to drill. E.g. deeper, offshore, hot climate, cold climate... (the supply is inelastic) Prices will keep going up. I want my plastic fork.
oil will never get to 200 a barrel because the majority of the world will not be able to afford it, the demand will go down causing a plateau in the price
People said the same thing about $50 oil, and $75 oil, and $100 oil, and $125 oil, etc.
There is absolutely no reason that oil will not eventually get to numbers that no one is even willing to discuss right now. Keep in mind that net available exports are already falling, and that the USA is just one of many purchasers of this oil. For every 1% increase in demand, price increased by 20%! Demand is going up at 1.5-2.0% per year.
OIL is basically a NECESSITY. Demand WONT go down cos there is NO ALTERNATIVE. How else can ANYONE fly? How else would FOOD and RESOURCES be delivered?
Prediction: $170 within 2 months. $250 sometime in 2009.
Technically, it is not a theory, since oil is non-renewable, exhaustible, and non-recyclable. There will be a peak, the question is simply "when?" and "what will be the impacts?"
I do see what your saying. I've been looking at Peak Oil research for a few years now. You always hear people like Kuenstler talk about $200 barrels.Most people assume consumers will pay what they have to pay. Bit what about in addition to rising food costs and job losses. Makes Sense.
Protests have erupted across the world and oil is only in the mid $130's a barrel. The first of the emergency summits are here already. Can you imagine the world when oil hits $170, $200, $250, $300 dollars a barrel and then goes higher still? And what will happen when oil producing countries start pulling their oil off world markets for there own domestic use?
The chapter on the energy crises of the 21st century will be an intesting read for students of history 300 years from now.
In half the people would find a way to share rides with just 1 person in the population, then our use of gasoline would decrease by nearly 50%. Go find people with whom to share rides.
"I found 7.5 million hits for peak oil on google. Then I went to wikipedia to learn about peak oil" wait... why are you giving a lecture then? Maybe we should just go to wikipedia ourselves? ...
Yes, that is a good idea. The video is meant to be a summary and introduction only. It is up to the viewers to find more information, to cross check the claims, and etc.
As always, one should be very leary of a single source, particularly a source that may be unknown. Wikipedia, TheOilDrum, EnergyBulletin, and many of the books on peak oil, such as by Heinberg, Kunstler, Campbell, Simmons, etc. are good places to start.
(continued, I ran out of character count just like we will run out of oil)......air conditioners if you can imagine everybody plugging in an electric car over night to charge we would have an endless black out due to the strain.
Long before we run out of oil, populations will be in termoil, governments will be pushed to secure oil supply which will mean invading another country. I think we are well and truly screwed transition should have happened 20 years ago, survival of humanity pending
Most people are missing the big picture here. Its not that we do not have alternative fuel sources to replace oil, its the VOLUME which will stop the world spinning on its axis do the math on 86 million barrels of oil a day in terms of converting that into for eg electricity, gas and the production of mechanics that can convert or make enough infrastructure and vehicles to support it.
In australia for an example, on a hot summers day the strain on our electricity grid is so great from.....
Peak oil would have happened one way or another. There is no more oil in the earth if it is one person or another in any position in the world. Those you "blame" someone are deluding themselves, seeking an easy scapegoat, and that is putting the world even further behind in working on solutions.
That sounds like common sense to me. So the next person to take office is really going to feel the heat as things get worse and they can't fix it overnight or at all.
Yes, that's right. The problems from peak oil are going to become more and more serious and severe, month after month. No matter who is in what position, everyone will have to come to grips with it. The only difference will be how people respond to the challenge of a generation.
Peak "net global oil exports" has already occured, and a bit of oil, coming to market years from now, from Alaska or anywhere, will not change that historical fact.
I just had a "flash" of what high priced oil will be like. At $15 per gallon, gasoline will simply be too unaffordable for people to travel. Not to mention the economy is going to get shot because people will not be able to afford anything but gas to get to/from work, and food. Crime rates will skyrocket, cars will be worthless. A lot of people won't have jobs. Our lives will be changed for the worse. We have used the only cheap energy source on this planet, our society is over as we knowit
Agree that 'peak oil' is a major factor in the price. In 2002 priced in Euros and Dollars, it was about $25 per barrel. Recently the price in Euros was about $75, and in Dollars, $132.
Anyone who commutes and uses a PC should be allowed to telecommute. Its a risk for employers. But could save billons nationwide in gas, time and life. But it takes some balls for companies to that! And of course some people would abuse it. Doing this could have a immediate possitive impact on our economy.
How much gas do NASCAR drivers use? and not to mention all the people who drive great distances to watch people sit in a car and drive around in a circle.
NASCAR watchers always strike me as being low to middle income people. I may be wrong about that, of course.
Since oil demand, and oil consumption, is directly proportional to spending, it is more the upper-middle and upper class that demand and consume the most.
I don't think that upper class people consume more oil than anyone else. The problem is world-wide, and effects everyone.
Yes, I believe that people have to make it a point to consume less, however, there is only so much you can do. There are times when you have to drive. The answer is alternative fuel, period.
If people thought a 30 mpg car was a good idea at $2.50 per gallon, then they should want a 60 mpg car for the coming $5 per gallon, and a 120 mpg car for the $10 per gallon that we'll probably be at in less than 7 years.
I was thinking the same thing... and then I realized if it ever comes to growing our own food.. I imagine we will need to sit in the garden all day and night shooting starving people for the first 10years or so. :(
The International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability
This conference will go into all of the detail on peak oil, rising gasoline prices, rising food prices, mortgage rates, inflation, and the outlook for the future.
Hemp can be cultivated faster, basically anywhere and no need for pesticide. Than fermented into ethanol in vast quantities rather than corn or sugar cane...also biodegradable plastics, oil, pulp and fiber to create paper and clothing.......................well, you catch my drift, right?
If you research "solar ponds" you will find that the solution to the energy crisis is at hand, but will never be implemented because the forces that have taken over the U.S. government do not want America to be energy independent.
Yes, the solution is simple - use (salt) water to absorb the heat from the sun and then use that warm water to run "rankine cycle" engines to power generators which will power the electric cars that we will never make (so Japan can).
Its simple, switch to hydrogen based cars. You can extract hydrogen stright from water, ANY water, tap water, including ocean water. What else is more abondant then ocean water?
H20
When you burn hydrogen, its exaust is water vapor! last I checked water vapor isn't poision
I am no expert on this subject but my teacher told me that nuclear power is not the way to go. If we where to use only nuclear power instead of oil we would have to use so much of it that all the uranium supplies this earth has would run out in aprox. 20 years. So just like oil, we do not have enough of it to keep living our life the way we do today in 20-40 years. Imagine all the stuff we take for granted like travelling the earth in airplanes/boats etc,
Wind, solar, hydro and a tiny bit of biomass are what we'll be using for the most part in the future. And this will be much, much less energy than we are currently using.
For most people, airline travel will become unaffordable. We'll see that happen in much more quickly than most people imagine.
The shocking thing is that global peak that isn't even the biggest problem. The closer problem is the "rate of decline of net global oil exports"......
Oil was found in Ellensburg Washington, at the time it was concluded that there wasn't enough worth pumping it out. Eventually the cost of oil will reach the point where it'll either be worth enough, or the country will be desperate enough to go after it.
After the WSJ interviewed me for the front page story about peak oil, the same reporter, Neil King Jr., went to Pennsylvania and wrote a report on what was happening with the oil fields there. In short, people pumping and digging for a few barrels a day, because now it is worth it. This will happen everyplace that there is even a small amount of oil remaining. Unfortunately, there is no way to add up enough of these tiny amounts, even if in the millions of barrels per day, to stop peak oil.
The Amish are a good example of survival and how our modern world is really just an illusion. Don't let the government try and scare you so bad that you give up your freedom.
alternative fuels i have heard of hydrogen, ethanol, veggie oil, wood dust, steam, and electric. Take your pick these might be realistic fuels one day soon.
They might be okay for an individual, or even a tiny community, but they would be extremely difficult or impossible to scale up for an entire state, country, or nation.
I don't think that stopping your car in the road will have any impact on how much oil there is in the ground, or on how fast we are able to extract it.
While it is foolhardy to try and deny peak oil, I really don't believe we will experience the dramatic downslope many are predicting. The market will react and people will start rationing when the time comes. I've seen many suggest that oil supply will shrink by 3 percent every year after we pass over the peak. There is no doubt in my mind that society could reduce its demand by that same amount every year. Even the most miniscule lifestyle adjustments could really flatten out the downslope.
Since oil extraction leveled out about three years ago, we can already see what is happening in the world economy, in various countries, and even with individuals.
Using the precautionary principle, we need to prepare for all possible futures. While there may be one where the USA and Europe can adapt, we are already seeing that poorer nations are unable to do so, and oil hasn't even headed into decline yet.
Read "Energy Bulletin" or "The Oil Drum" to see how oil is impacting us now.
Have you ever seen anyone take a credit card company to small claims court? More often than not, a credit card company will claim theft as your crime rather than breach of contract. If you're really persistent, they will not be able to prove theft. In order for there to be theft, the plaintiff has to prove loss. Since CC Companies create money out of thin air (A power granted to banks) they can not prove loss in court. It's entirely ethical.
The state of Alsaka is oil rich. And yet the government refuses to drill and tap into those proven oil fields up north.
Not to mention, we've got developing countries who don't play by the rules such as those crazy ass Chinese sucking up all of our resources in the Middle East and beyond.
The next vehicle I purchase will be an electric powered one when they are due to roll out in 2011.
I'am glad that price of gas went up ! but it should go for $10,000.00 a barrel...... then the government should sell it at $500.00 a gal. then maybe we would fined other fuels....
If gas were $10,000/barrel, in current dollars, the entire economy would stop and most of the world would starve to death or die, because oil is the master resource of civilization. It is the blood of our civilization. Without it, our civilization could not continue.
That said, the value of oil is more than $10,000 per barrel, especially when comparing the amount of human labor energy it would take to replace what is done with oil. For example, imagine planting 80 acres by hand.
Every alternative possible will get increasing attention as peak oil becomes more well understood.
Coal is also non-renewable, and very polluting.
Nuclear is dangerous, requires extremely high levels of continuing service, and no permanent waste disposal solution has yet been implemented. Nevertheless, nuclear will get lots of attention.
Green energy is excellent, but 20 years are needed before peak oil to scale up the green energy infrastructure. We are probably at peak oil now.
I don't think politicians care about pollution, when peak oil comes they will choose the cheapest energy - coal. Besides, filtres can stop coal pollution - there's almost only CO2 getting to atmosphere which isn't a pollution - it's a natural gas. This global yelling about CO2 is bullshit, remember that thanks to CO2 the plants will grow bigger, look at Jura age
Carbon dioxide is pollution -- something we are making which is not desirable. The concensus of climate scientists are telling us that this is leading to climate change.
Sure, it is natural to have a super-greenhouse Earth, in fact, that is when the oil started to form, but that doesn't mean it is desirable, or that getting there in 100 years will be pleasant.
Politicians, for the most part, do care about pollution, but it isn't the caring, it is the acting that matters.
At the current rate of about 85 million barrels per day, it would all be gone in about 30 years.
This is certainly a problem, but probably not as severe as the impacts of a diminishing oil supply. As oil gets harder and harder to find and produce, the amount will decline, and a rapid shift in the entire global economy will occur.
Get out of debt -- yes, if possible. Some don't have that option (see housing crisis).
Sell stock -- yes, owning stock is like gambling, except you're playing at a table with professionals, and you just learned the game today. Remember, the stock markets as a whole are zero-sum games; for every dollar spent buying stocks, those same dollars will eventually be lost by someone's sales.
Gold -- probably, I've got a few ounces in the bank... but you can't eat gold.
I always wonder why people suggest getting out of debt when reading about peak oil. If things do really get bad, what will it matter? Wouldn't you be better off saving your money or using it to stock up on supplies than paying off debt? Maybe even going more into debt now to install things like a solar water heater.
Getting out of debt because of the risk of foreclosure and bankrupcy. Keep in mind, we are already in the peak oil era, for three years now, so we can already see why getting out of debt is a good idea.
Saving money is not a good idea because of rapid inflation; although deflation is possible; so have some cash, but not too much.
The risk of layoff is high, so reducing monthly bills as much as possible is essential.
It is a good question. More could be said about why it is important.
newculture, we should all pay off our home mortgages, and home equity loans...but as for unsecured debt(credit card), I say don't pay them off...pay the minimum...use them to get prepared...when the sh#t his the fan, it won't matter...they are UNSECURED!!!...they can't reposses your home for that...in fact, you can carry unpaid debt on your credit report for 7 years and then they MUST be removed. So, use up your credit cards to get ready for the comming chaos!
so will we find the alternative sun resources that will power us so much we dont have to pay for any energy (basically)and energy problems are solved.that i know will eventually have in time?
We have probably discovered all of the energy sources that will ever be practical.
All energy that we use does come from the sun, in one way or another.
The energy from the sun is free, but converting it into "high quality" energy, such as a liquid fuel, is quite a challenge in most cases.
As long as peak oil doesn't happen for another 20 years, and as long as we start right now with all our efforts, we can make the tranition and keep everything we have.
We also have to make sure terrorists do not blow up oil supply's. If that happened. I believe the economy would crumble in 1 week. It would be equal to, lets say all the truckers stop moving good. Just major problems. So what year do you think everything will be hit the hardest?
This is certainly possible, and any minor disruption could end up causing a major problem.
For example, if Venezuela stopped exporting, the USA would be in bad shape in only a few days.
The world economy is already on the knife edge. Think of what the federal reserve and governement have had to do in the past three months just to keep things going.
When will the everything hit hardest? That is a "black swan event", but it won't surprise me too much when it happens.
Right, nuclear does not come directly from the sun.
Wrong, nuclear is from radioactive heavy metals that were either formed in the sun and ejected, or (more likely) were formed from the parent star of our entire solar system.
Check with a professional solar astronomer to get their thought on which is most likely.
Petroleum is the cheapest and most efficient form of energy we have EVER found. It is lightning in a bottle. Formed millions of years ago, used up over a few decades.
Running out is really a matter of power. Those with power will have oil for quite a while, those without power will be forced to transition to life without oil.
It is possible to live without oil. The question is, can a person live WHERE THEY ARE if they have no oil. For many, the answer is NO.
There is lots of oil left in the ground, perhaps 1 trillion barrels or more. The quesion is not really "how much" but "how fast" can we get it out. This is a question of geology much more than technology
Since we are in almost a perfect market situation for oil, demand can be determined by looking at the change in price relative to the change in supply. We can tell that demand is increasing right now because the price is going up (from $10/barrel to over $100/barrel). Supply is not increasing.
Feel free to message me through LocalFuture dot org; or via YouTube.
Plus we have the competition with the growing economies of India and China. Perhaps the thing to do is to undermine their economies and set them back 50 years or so, thereby decreasing worldwide demand. Maybe we will get lucky and a worldwide epidemic will strike, decreasing global popluation and thus demand as well. I for one am not looking forward to $4+ per gallon.
One way or another, economies will be "undermined". It will either come from fuel/energy decline, or from some other factor, like a failure of food imports.
Peak oil is only a symptom of the unsustainability of our global culture.
This kind of nationalistic thinking will only deepen the crisis and drive us closer to World War III. We need to not only live differently, but think differently. Stop thinking about your country and start worrying about the human species. It's an international problem, and we should try to solve it internationally. The time's coming where you'll look back on $4+ with fond memories.
The more I study Peak Oil the more I realize that it's not just our attitude toward energy must change. Our attitude toward money must change also. The notion of borrowing against future growth goes hand in hand with the expectation of ever increasing supplies of cheap oil. Debt based currency cannot exist in an era of diminishing energy without dire consequences. It's time to rethink what money is and how it works. It's that or get used to hyperinflation and economic collapse.
Indeed, paper fiat currency is supported only by our confidence in it. The connection between the energy supply and the monetary system are not only real, but they are essential to understanding how peak oil will impact our future.
This video completely left out the petro dollar, and the recycling system it produces. Not to mention our economy, our currency is tied directly to it, and without it inflation sky rockets.
If, after the first Gulf War in 1991, the people of the United States had demanded their government invest $500 billion dollars (less than the amount the U.S. has spent for costs directly attributable to foreign oil dependence during the past ten years) into the construction of algae farms, for the production of sustainable renewable biodiesel, we would be living in a different world today.
the last presentation I saw on switchgrass and cellulosic ethanol was really disappointing. It appears to be a long way off. Maybe there'll be a breakthrough, but I'm not holding my breathe for that. Might be like "fusion power", always just 50 years away.
I don't know about algae. Keep in mind, these things would have to scale up incredibly fast to be able to stabilize oil demand. Most likely, impossible.
The oil companies are raping the consumer. Exxon/Mobil is the largest offender. Stop buying Exxon/mobil products, they will be forced to lower their prices and the other smaller companies will have to follow.
No one knows for sure how much oil there is left in the earth, but current estimates by NON-BIASED NON-SCARE TACTIC organizations show AT LEAST 200 years worth of oil at our current consumption rate, and that's just oil we know about. The problem is people are creating the oil price crisis by NOT LETTING US DRILL FOR OUR OWN OIL. DUH!!! IT'S THAT SIMPLE
I do agree with you almightyt that no one knows how much oil is out there. The problem is the remaining oil will more than likely only be drilled in deep sea and this creates many problems of its own. You'll have the whole energy in vs energy out come into play.
We do have vast reserves of shale & oil sand, but those have fairly low EROEI's not to mention all the resources they use. We should at the most expect to use those as a transition to other enrgy, not replacement for light cheap oil.
It is not about 'how much oil' it is about oil FLOW - how much can be taken out of the ground each day. It is HARDER to get oil out of the ground - the DEMAND is going up. Almightyt - can you show that either of those are not true? please do so if you can.
You know all those "nutjobs" that warn others about the Mayan Calendars prophecy and the 2012 predictions??? Well, I think that more Americans better start listening to them because looking at all the facts and data, 2012 seems like the same "area" they are "predicting" this PEAK to occur....Hmm, coincidence??? I think NOT!
its scares the shit outta me when i see kids playing and think to myself..my generation is gonna pay for these old fools..and thats why i hate old people(joks) they have lived the golden age and now they die just before this place shits itself
Your statement doesn't take into account that there isn't an infinite amount of oil. Newton's second law - all systems are prone to degradation. Oil doesn't grow on trees.
It is a problem for anyone that relies on oil for a major part of their livelihood; in particular, net oil importing countries, of which there are more every year.
Heat your home with wood gasstove that can save you thousands. Insulate and use electric blanket or bed warmer to save energy. Use the web sites to learn all you can about saving energy.
No problem. It was a good summer project. It started as 53 minutes, but I didn't want to *pay* YouTube, so I edited it down to 10 and added the fun clips. ;-)
If I had the time, I'd do a 5-minute one but even better and easier to understand. :-)
90% of my free time right now is working getting "The International Conference on Peak Oil & Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability" going. :-)
I'm yet to hear news of any refinery in the world that have to shut down or reduce utilization due to inability to obtain crude as feedstock. Supply is still meeting demand. World refining capacity, however, is coming up fast. The question is when will be the point that crude supply is less than refining capacity and who will get supply and who will lose out. Next year? 2010?
Supply is not meeting demand. If it were, then the price per barrel of oil would still be in the $10-$30 range.
Demand is increasing. Supply is not.
This is what is meant by "supply is not meeting demand"... Supply is not increasing at the same rate as demand, and so price is rising.
Since supply is no longer rising, and is apparently "stuck" at 84.5 mbpd, no refineries can shut down, although they may need some work to refine the sour heavy crude.
"Supply is not meeting demand. If it were, then the price per barrel of oil would still be in the $10-$30 range."
newculture, you've forgotten that oil is a paper traded commodity.
When state run pension funds, large investment bankers, and other hedge funds dump trillions of dollars into buying oil the price goes up. Today's $106 barrels of oil have nothing to do with the amount of oil being produced. $10 - $30 barrels of oil are around the corner -- no new oil discoveries needed.
The analysts disagree with you. Try searching on that topic in Google News or in the Wall Street Journal. While maybe 10% of the price can be attributed to speculation, most is simple supply and demand. Take a look at the DOE E
Interesting peak oil points. Very bullish for oil next year, might never see double digit oil again IMO!
TurnKeyOil 1 year ago
@TurnKeyOil I would not be surprised if it stays below $100 for a while; although, eventually, it may be priced much, much higher in real terms... the question is, what does that look like in nominal terms?
newculture 1 year ago
The bottom line in our perspective is to find ways to capitalize in the sharp increases we expect in oil prices.
PeakPetro 1 year ago
hey, im doing a presentation in my economics class and i wanted to include your video. i was wondering if it was possible for me to somehow download it, or if you could maybe send it to me?
EllleJayy 2 years ago
but this is kinda strange, since more and more money goes to the arab countries, then shouldnt those countries be developing at a super high rate, creating more jobs, and thus opening the doors for imigrants....but still the arabs and other middle eastern people come to Europe and other western countries. Why is that?
donpaolo1980 2 years ago
That's a great question.
Dubai did have a huge construction boom. They had lots and lots of very skilled workers from other countries coming in to do the construction. I know they employed some more local workers, but a lot of it was fairly skilled.
Once the oil price collapsed, most of these foreign workers left for home, going so far as to abandon their cars at the airport. The projects stopped, many apparently at a standstill.
newculture 2 years ago
I was reading (from more than one source) that Canada is the biggest supplier of oil to the US not the middle east, is this wrong or right.
konachai1 2 years ago
thanks man
i have a competition and this has helped me understand and get the information i need
and i think that the oil peak era will happen soon, right? answer quickly please and thanks :)
omar3rab 2 years ago
Technically, the peak oil era began in the 70's, because that is when the barrels of oil consumed, per person on Earth, began to slow its growth, and begin to decline.
Ignoring population, peak oil for regular oil that comes up the pipe on its own was probably in the 2005-2007 range.
For the amount of oil available on the export market (important for oil importers like the USA), that peaked prior to 2005.
Even including most everything, the peak was either 2007-2008, or quite soon.
newculture 2 years ago
The first trillion barrels of oil that has been consumed has been primarily of the 'cheap easy' variety.
The next trillion barrels is not so cheap and easy. Current estimates place the cost at between US$80 and US$150 per barrel to exploit.
There could be an answer to the problem as far as the physical requirements of an increasing world population is concerned - while reducing the environmental impact at the same time
The bigger problem however is this. Could mankind handle it responsibly?
OMGEnterprise 2 years ago
i dont get it,,,,,,,
why is there a decline in production long before it runs out?
shouldn't production continue to rise up untill the point that it runs out?
like if im drinking a bottle of water i dont have difficulty drinking the end of it, i can drink as fast when the bottle is nearly empty as when it was full
am i missing something?
viewer1112 2 years ago
The amount of oil being pumped out of any given well starts slow, and increases up to a maximum (steady) flow rate. But as the pressure in the well declines, the flow rate slows, and eventually it becomes necessary to inject water or something else down another well to wash out the remaining oil. Throughout this process, the amount of oil coming out declines, although very slowly.
You could think of this as similar to drinking an Icee or snow cone. It doesn't drop off all at once.
newculture 2 years ago
Damn, even are computers made of petroleum. Peak Oil may drive higher employment levels as it will take man power to plow fields. We are dependent on the glboal economy, we may no longer be able to get our favorite fruits or veggies that are in season year around thanks to our highly connected world made possible by oil. LOL you can't ask people to conserve, we are a generation of instant gratification. If children can't wait until high school to lose virginity how can they possibly do this?
AntArt141 2 years ago
good presentation. oil like any other resource is limited. while we wont see life ending, living AS WE KNOW IT right now certainly will be replaced by another way of living. anglo saxon concept of capitalism is one of the main reasons for this situation. every system attains equilibrium whether it likes it or not, humans will too.
cray0308 3 years ago
1) peak oil is a fake concept, 2) if we run out of oil we'll find an alternative energy to replace it, ie liguid gas and coal. Oil investors like to use peak oil to make accept high oil price.
moniequa 3 years ago
1. Oil is nonrenewable, therefore, there must be a peak. To believe otherwise is known as "magical thinking".
2. Running out is not the issue. If oil production follows the normal curve, then the last drop won't be got for a hundred years or more. The issue is that the amount of LIQUID energy fuel that works in our current infrastructure will become less and less available, and that will wreck the global economy. The past few years are a case in point.
newculture 3 years ago
No doubt. But....doesnt change the FACT that the Earth's fossil fuel's are EXACTLY(not really) like a nice..chilled..pint of beer...mmmmm...every delicious gulp, and yu've got that much less :(
No doubt that traders might exploit the situation...but they exploit every situation dont they? :P
I dont blame yu for denying the logic. Its...difficult to accept.
porgpie 3 years ago
the energy density of oil is FAR GREATER than any of the other sources you mentioned...so no matter how you slice it, the future will be SHORT on energy...not even considering population growth!!! THAT will only make it WORSE for those living in that time...it won't be fun.
Learn how to grow your own food...or get to know some people with enough land to grow food. Small communities are going to survive and city dwellers are screwed.
Chromatype 2 years ago
No peak oil.
moniequa 3 years ago
If oil is magically created by the Earth then perhaps there would not be a peak.
Fortunately for us, oil is NOT created by magic, and instead it is a finite, non-renewable, exhaustible resource. The "downside", so-to-speak, is that production WILL peak, as does the production of ANY non-renewable resource.
Peak oil has already happened to states, and to countries, and when the number of countries past peak overwhelm those that are still increasing production, peak oil will occur.
newculture 3 years ago
We'er at the dawn of a new age gentlemen, the battle for the worlds soul is on.
kingsman565 3 years ago
And interesting way to put it. Yes, this "battle" is, and yet the "war" has been going on for generations.
newculture 3 years ago
This is very good for a 10-minute video. I would also recommend End of Suburbia another great documentary (90 minutes). What shall we do??? One of the more promising projects starting up is the Transition Towns Initiative. I'm going to promote the start of a Transition Town in Pasadena.
hopit 3 years ago
Yes, there are lots of good videos out there. The Power of Community is particularly effective because if focused on realistic, down-to-earth solutions.
newculture 3 years ago
I still don't believe it. Just live your life until then I guess.
ukiki2012 3 years ago
Some people do believe that oil is magically created. If a person believes that, then it is logical that they dismiss the idea of a maximum rate for oil production.
Of course, we don't live in a magical fantasy land. This is reality. Oil is limited. It is non-renewable. And once it is burned up, it is gone... a.k.a. it is non-recycleable.
For every state in the USA, oil has peaked. For most of the nations of the world, oil has peaked. Peak oil is innevitable. It is reality.
newculture 3 years ago
FACT---there is no shortage of oil in this world
sasktank 3 years ago
Thus in the face of peak oil and its multiple consequences, which are bound to impact upon almost all aspects of our human standards of life, it seems imperative to get prepared to face all the inevitable shockwaves resulting from that. Preparation should be carried out on individual, familial, societal and national levels as soon as possible. Every preparative step taken today will prove far cheaper than any step taken tomorrow.
baehsas 3 years ago 3
I suggest federally supported massive R&D efforts to develop real permanent solutions to energy, as well as large public works projects to develop infrastructure that can use the new energy. Possible energy sources for consideration include Generation 4 nuclear reactors, as well as the environmentally benign and infinitely abundant potential source of energy from magnetically confined Nuclear Fusion. With adequate R&D budgets these technologies can be made realities and propel the future.
joshuaki3 3 years ago
Great Presentation. My only criticism is that the problem is being understated. Not only is our food supply dependent on oil and other finite sources of energy, but also our entire infrastructure. From the drywall in our homes to the concrete and steel in our roads, and buildings. Growing locally and the other suggestions don't come close to sustainable living. Without technological solution to energy scarcity all of modern life must be forfeited, including modern medicine.
joshuaki3 3 years ago 3
We need to start with electric big rigs with solar panels all over the cab and portable, roll-up panels to put on the trailers.
ramgarden 3 years ago
wow and this was 2 years ago.
70road 3 years ago
And that is just this video.
An understanding of peak oil and its impacts has been known for probably a decade or more.
newculture 3 years ago
The idea was named "Peak Oil" back in the 1950's.
BurnTheMan01 3 years ago
Yes, I imagine so. Dr. Hubbert presented the idea in 1956 or 1957.
The question is when the economic consequences associated with peak oil started to become apparent.
newculture 3 years ago
yes, thanks to a hoax like that is why the oil was 150 per barrel and gas was 4/gallon. Now that the oil price inflation stopped, you don't hear anymore peak oil. If oil is peaking then the oil price should remain high even if the demand goes down a little. In this case the oil fell 80%. This doesn't make any sense. There is no such thing as oil peak. If it was the price would have been high
moniequa 3 years ago
This is an interesting question, which I believe is "If the global oil supply is reaching the peak, why did the price drop so much?"
This has to do with something called "elacticity". For oil, if there is excess production, the price drops rapidly. If the demand exceeds production, the price rises rapidly.
For oil, the elacticity is about 20. In other words, if the demand falls below production by about 1%, then the price will fall about 20%.
newculture 3 years ago
If oil appraoches maximum rate of production then the elasticity concept doesn't applies to the demand and supply equation because even if the demand decreases temporarily, the supply continues to decrease until its gone. If this is the case, then oil producers just cut rate of production and they can maintain their high prices. It doesnt make any sense to give away precious non-renewabel resource like oil just because the demand goes down alittle.
moniequa 3 years ago
Keep in mind that there are other factors which confound the prices, some of which we know, and some which we do not. One thing that can be factored in that their is oil in storage. When demand decrease unexpectedly this summer, the amount in storage began to increase. This sent a signal to the market as to the price. Then, OPEC claimed to cut back on their exports, and yet the demand fell faster. With demand for those exports even 1% less than the export supply, the price fell.
newculture 3 years ago
According to you, it is obvious we have plenty of oil otherwise they wouldn't have reduced the price so drastically. Once again, if oil were limited and world couldn't move without it then all they had to do was reduce production, stored the left over, when the demand came back, which it had too because of China and India, then oil can continue to climb. But this not the case, now oil is cheaper than it was in 1974.
moniequa 3 years ago
The world will not run out of oil but the world will run out of cheap oil. that should ring the bell but I guess it doesn't that is why had dotcom bubble, real estate bubble, commodities bubbe, oil bubble and other....
moniequa 3 years ago
no body spoke of the end of oil. the theory is called peak oil because it is the idea that oil AT THE CURRENT prices is the cheapest available resource and will NOT continue to remain cheap. Per your argument, if oil producing countries cut production 2 things happen, prices go up and resources dry up and with it everything that depends on oil (which is everything) . Many opec countries depend on oil as their only source of national income. cutting production is a diccicult decision for them.
cray0308 3 years ago
Thank you for your information.
I think Peak oil now is happen.
baehsas 3 years ago 2
Actually, peak oil already did happen in three important ways.
1. Conventional oil -- drilled on the land, comes up the pipe on its own, peaked in 2005
2. Net oil exports -- how much oil is actually available to purchase on the export market, peaked a few years ago
3. Per capita oil -- amount of total oil per person on the planet, peaked many years back
#2 and #3 are probably the most important. The actual "all time global 'oil' peak" is almost irrelevant by comparison.
newculture 3 years ago
Diane Rheim (sp?)on NPR has had a couple of shows addressing Peak Oil with Matt Simmons as a guest. Also,Congressman Roscoe Bartlett presented peak oil to congress in March 05
Tabberwacky 3 years ago
Barlett gives talks every month or so in the House of Reps for CSPAN.
I haven't heard Diane's interview with Simmons, but he is on CNBC every couple of months.
newculture 3 years ago
i did some research on the subject and you are right we are peaking and it started at the end of 2004, things are going to get a lot worse if hubbert is right on this down curve of oil production, even if they discover new fields it will just hold a plateau for a year or two it will never meet the increasing demand unless there is a major economic depression, our way of life will never be the same
dissturbbed 3 years ago
if you could sell a widget that everyone needed... and kept raising that price and made more and more money while it still cost you the same to make that widget... would you raise your prices constantly and still see everyone purchasing it... yes... i would.
swicknire 3 years ago
That is called a monopoly.
If there was one single oil company in the world, then this could certainly be the case.
But the prices ARE NOT SET!!! by the oil companies. They are set AT AUCTION on the NYMEX. AUCTION... bidding, less contracts, same demand, higher price. Period.
See "Peak Oil in the Pit" and the CNBC vids on the NYMEX.
The one thing that CAN happen is that a national oil company can limit exports (less contracts), but that is their right, because it is their oil.
newculture 3 years ago
And, yes, because people have not changed their lifestyles, and there are no substitutes out there, they have to have their gas to drive all over the place. (the demand is inelastic) On the supply side, the rate at which the oil can be supplied starts to drop because all of the easy oil is gone. They have to move to more challenging and expensive places to drill. E.g. deeper, offshore, hot climate, cold climate... (the supply is inelastic) Prices will keep going up. I want my plastic fork.
milofonbil 3 years ago
oil will never get to 200 a barrel because the majority of the world will not be able to afford it, the demand will go down causing a plateau in the price
dissturbbed 3 years ago
People said the same thing about $50 oil, and $75 oil, and $100 oil, and $125 oil, etc.
There is absolutely no reason that oil will not eventually get to numbers that no one is even willing to discuss right now. Keep in mind that net available exports are already falling, and that the USA is just one of many purchasers of this oil. For every 1% increase in demand, price increased by 20%! Demand is going up at 1.5-2.0% per year.
Prediction: $200 oil within 12 months.
newculture 3 years ago
OIL is basically a NECESSITY. Demand WONT go down cos there is NO ALTERNATIVE. How else can ANYONE fly? How else would FOOD and RESOURCES be delivered?
Prediction: $170 within 2 months. $250 sometime in 2009.
xxxaabbccxxx 3 years ago
They won't fly and resources will not be delivered. Localize.
Tabberwacky 3 years ago
That's an interesting theory.
Tabberwacky 3 years ago
Technically, it is not a theory, since oil is non-renewable, exhaustible, and non-recyclable. There will be a peak, the question is simply "when?" and "what will be the impacts?"
newculture 3 years ago
I do see what your saying. I've been looking at Peak Oil research for a few years now. You always hear people like Kuenstler talk about $200 barrels.Most people assume consumers will pay what they have to pay. Bit what about in addition to rising food costs and job losses. Makes Sense.
Tabberwacky 3 years ago
Protests have erupted across the world and oil is only in the mid $130's a barrel. The first of the emergency summits are here already. Can you imagine the world when oil hits $170, $200, $250, $300 dollars a barrel and then goes higher still? And what will happen when oil producing countries start pulling their oil off world markets for there own domestic use?
The chapter on the energy crises of the 21st century will be an intesting read for students of history 300 years from now.
mebrumbrumbeepbeep 3 years ago 3
If half the people would shoot 1 person then the population would decrease by 50%. Go get yer gun.
cubeprisioner8 3 years ago
In half the people would find a way to share rides with just 1 person in the population, then our use of gasoline would decrease by nearly 50%. Go find people with whom to share rides.
newculture 3 years ago
"I found 7.5 million hits for peak oil on google. Then I went to wikipedia to learn about peak oil" wait... why are you giving a lecture then? Maybe we should just go to wikipedia ourselves? ...
MazeleyFanClub 3 years ago
Yes, that is a good idea. The video is meant to be a summary and introduction only. It is up to the viewers to find more information, to cross check the claims, and etc.
As always, one should be very leary of a single source, particularly a source that may be unknown. Wikipedia, TheOilDrum, EnergyBulletin, and many of the books on peak oil, such as by Heinberg, Kunstler, Campbell, Simmons, etc. are good places to start.
newculture 3 years ago
(continued, I ran out of character count just like we will run out of oil)......air conditioners if you can imagine everybody plugging in an electric car over night to charge we would have an endless black out due to the strain.
Long before we run out of oil, populations will be in termoil, governments will be pushed to secure oil supply which will mean invading another country. I think we are well and truly screwed transition should have happened 20 years ago, survival of humanity pending
supermanred 3 years ago
Most people are missing the big picture here. Its not that we do not have alternative fuel sources to replace oil, its the VOLUME which will stop the world spinning on its axis do the math on 86 million barrels of oil a day in terms of converting that into for eg electricity, gas and the production of mechanics that can convert or make enough infrastructure and vehicles to support it.
In australia for an example, on a hot summers day the strain on our electricity grid is so great from.....
supermanred 3 years ago
What all those videos about George Bush causing this are wrong?
imikewillrockyou 3 years ago
Peak oil would have happened one way or another. There is no more oil in the earth if it is one person or another in any position in the world. Those you "blame" someone are deluding themselves, seeking an easy scapegoat, and that is putting the world even further behind in working on solutions.
newculture 3 years ago
That sounds like common sense to me. So the next person to take office is really going to feel the heat as things get worse and they can't fix it overnight or at all.
imikewillrockyou 3 years ago
Yes, that's right. The problems from peak oil are going to become more and more serious and severe, month after month. No matter who is in what position, everyone will have to come to grips with it. The only difference will be how people respond to the challenge of a generation.
newculture 3 years ago
i can solve this problem, open up alaska
dave997 3 years ago
More oil doesn't solve anything.
Peak "net global oil exports" has already occured, and a bit of oil, coming to market years from now, from Alaska or anywhere, will not change that historical fact.
newculture 3 years ago
What makes you think that will solve it? There is enough oil in ANWAR, at best, for two years worth of oil production. That's not the solution.
Umberto2 3 years ago
I just had a "flash" of what high priced oil will be like. At $15 per gallon, gasoline will simply be too unaffordable for people to travel. Not to mention the economy is going to get shot because people will not be able to afford anything but gas to get to/from work, and food. Crime rates will skyrocket, cars will be worthless. A lot of people won't have jobs. Our lives will be changed for the worse. We have used the only cheap energy source on this planet, our society is over as we knowit
arizonaresident1 3 years ago
"We started complaining when gas went over $2 a gallon. In Europe and Japan, they're paying $7."
Its now at over $11 per gallon, just filled up today.
Great succinct vid by the way.
Keep up the good work.
Lookup2Wakeup 3 years ago
Succinct, yes, it was edited down from a 48-minute talk (which is available on Google Video).
Yes, I've heard of the European prices. Peak oil is impacting all the oil importing countries.
newculture 3 years ago
In 2002 the Euro was worth about 1 Dollar. As of today, the Dollar is only worth 0.635 Euros.
The 'food crisis', 'peak oil' and the falling dollar will combine in a 'Perfect Storm' to create massive consumer price inflation.
InTheSticks1881 3 years ago
Agree that 'peak oil' is a major factor in the price. In 2002 priced in Euros and Dollars, it was about $25 per barrel. Recently the price in Euros was about $75, and in Dollars, $132.
InTheSticks1881 3 years ago
The recent drop in the dollar has had a significant effect on the rising price. We are poised to see the dollar drop much further.
InTheSticks1881 3 years ago
The recent rise in the oil has had a significant effect on the dollar. We are poised to see the oil rise much further.
newculture 3 years ago
Anyone who commutes and uses a PC should be allowed to telecommute. Its a risk for employers. But could save billons nationwide in gas, time and life. But it takes some balls for companies to that! And of course some people would abuse it. Doing this could have a immediate possitive impact on our economy.
aquamancalif 3 years ago
How much gas do NASCAR drivers use? and not to mention all the people who drive great distances to watch people sit in a car and drive around in a circle.
TheParksInc 3 years ago
NASCAR watchers always strike me as being low to middle income people. I may be wrong about that, of course.
Since oil demand, and oil consumption, is directly proportional to spending, it is more the upper-middle and upper class that demand and consume the most.
newculture 3 years ago
I don't think that upper class people consume more oil than anyone else. The problem is world-wide, and effects everyone.
Yes, I believe that people have to make it a point to consume less, however, there is only so much you can do. There are times when you have to drive. The answer is alternative fuel, period.
Mellowbuzz1974 3 years ago
dont you almost think it would be a good for people to start moving torwards bikes and other forms of transportation?
jsnxxxx9 3 years ago 5
Absolutely.
Walking, running, skating, biking, very-high efficiency vehicles like electric-assist bicycle, mopeds, public transport, ride sharing, etc.
Of course, the best strategy is to reduce consumption as much as possible.
newculture 3 years ago
anyone that buy's a new gashog is stupid. we need 150mpg. pass it on till GM, and ford hears.
GrandGuignologist 3 years ago 6
If people thought a 30 mpg car was a good idea at $2.50 per gallon, then they should want a 60 mpg car for the coming $5 per gallon, and a 120 mpg car for the $10 per gallon that we'll probably be at in less than 7 years.
newculture 3 years ago
wow! I need to start planting my own food; atleast I will have food.
cuteaisha 3 years ago 3
I was thinking the same thing... and then I realized if it ever comes to growing our own food.. I imagine we will need to sit in the garden all day and night shooting starving people for the first 10years or so. :(
wrenchmandan 3 years ago 3
The both of you guys are saying the exact same thing I've been thinking of...
LifeLongRacer 3 years ago 3
an idependent film showing what the world might be like a few years after oil runs out.
/watch?v=ixrqapTdUbo
codyroo420 3 years ago
The International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability
This conference will go into all of the detail on peak oil, rising gasoline prices, rising food prices, mortgage rates, inflation, and the outlook for the future.
Google "Peak Oil Conference" to lean more.
...
newculture 3 years ago
Hemp can be cultivated faster, basically anywhere and no need for pesticide. Than fermented into ethanol in vast quantities rather than corn or sugar cane...also biodegradable plastics, oil, pulp and fiber to create paper and clothing.......................well, you catch my drift, right?
TheForeteller 3 years ago
If you research "solar ponds" you will find that the solution to the energy crisis is at hand, but will never be implemented because the forces that have taken over the U.S. government do not want America to be energy independent.
Yes, the solution is simple - use (salt) water to absorb the heat from the sun and then use that warm water to run "rankine cycle" engines to power generators which will power the electric cars that we will never make (so Japan can).
Wikipedia has links to the truth.
OregonDARRYL 3 years ago
Its simple, switch to hydrogen based cars. You can extract hydrogen stright from water, ANY water, tap water, including ocean water. What else is more abondant then ocean water?
H20
When you burn hydrogen, its exaust is water vapor! last I checked water vapor isn't poision
rfry 3 years ago
Taking water and seperating it into hydrogen and oxygen takes LOTS of energy. Where is that energy going to come from?
Right now, most energy in the world comes from coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium.
A hydrogen powered car is more or less the same as a battery powered car... the energy comes from somewhere else.
There might be a small hope for hydrogen generated from hydro, wind, or PV generated electricity. That is the only reasonable hope for hydrogen.
newculture 3 years ago
I am no expert on this subject but my teacher told me that nuclear power is not the way to go. If we where to use only nuclear power instead of oil we would have to use so much of it that all the uranium supplies this earth has would run out in aprox. 20 years. So just like oil, we do not have enough of it to keep living our life the way we do today in 20-40 years. Imagine all the stuff we take for granted like travelling the earth in airplanes/boats etc,
Helgi112 3 years ago 4
Yes, uranium is also non-renewable.
Wind, solar, hydro and a tiny bit of biomass are what we'll be using for the most part in the future. And this will be much, much less energy than we are currently using.
For most people, airline travel will become unaffordable. We'll see that happen in much more quickly than most people imagine.
The shocking thing is that global peak that isn't even the biggest problem. The closer problem is the "rate of decline of net global oil exports"......
newculture 3 years ago
WOW - this is just a test
PersistenceRecords 3 years ago
Oil was found in Ellensburg Washington, at the time it was concluded that there wasn't enough worth pumping it out. Eventually the cost of oil will reach the point where it'll either be worth enough, or the country will be desperate enough to go after it.
lowellriggsiam 3 years ago
After the WSJ interviewed me for the front page story about peak oil, the same reporter, Neil King Jr., went to Pennsylvania and wrote a report on what was happening with the oil fields there. In short, people pumping and digging for a few barrels a day, because now it is worth it. This will happen everyplace that there is even a small amount of oil remaining. Unfortunately, there is no way to add up enough of these tiny amounts, even if in the millions of barrels per day, to stop peak oil.
newculture 3 years ago
The Amish are a good example of survival and how our modern world is really just an illusion. Don't let the government try and scare you so bad that you give up your freedom.
redviper101 3 years ago
alternative fuels i have heard of hydrogen, ethanol, veggie oil, wood dust, steam, and electric. Take your pick these might be realistic fuels one day soon.
halodeltadave 3 years ago
They might be okay for an individual, or even a tiny community, but they would be extremely difficult or impossible to scale up for an entire state, country, or nation.
newculture 3 years ago
I don't think that stopping your car in the road will have any impact on how much oil there is in the ground, or on how fast we are able to extract it.
newculture 3 years ago
While it is foolhardy to try and deny peak oil, I really don't believe we will experience the dramatic downslope many are predicting. The market will react and people will start rationing when the time comes. I've seen many suggest that oil supply will shrink by 3 percent every year after we pass over the peak. There is no doubt in my mind that society could reduce its demand by that same amount every year. Even the most miniscule lifestyle adjustments could really flatten out the downslope.
poshko41 3 years ago
Since oil extraction leveled out about three years ago, we can already see what is happening in the world economy, in various countries, and even with individuals.
Using the precautionary principle, we need to prepare for all possible futures. While there may be one where the USA and Europe can adapt, we are already seeing that poorer nations are unable to do so, and oil hasn't even headed into decline yet.
Read "Energy Bulletin" or "The Oil Drum" to see how oil is impacting us now.
newculture 3 years ago
seem this's worse than the global warming. besides, how people is going to die because of starvation?
xflackaw 3 years ago
It seems to me that peak oil is the most serious of the things facing us right now.
Some countries have so many people, that rising oil prices will end up forcing them out of the oil buying market and/or the food buying market.
I think looking over the last three years, we can see where things are headed. That is the direction they are likely to continue.
newculture 3 years ago
Have you ever seen anyone take a credit card company to small claims court? More often than not, a credit card company will claim theft as your crime rather than breach of contract. If you're really persistent, they will not be able to prove theft. In order for there to be theft, the plaintiff has to prove loss. Since CC Companies create money out of thin air (A power granted to banks) they can not prove loss in court. It's entirely ethical.
Fiat money is not really value based currency.
disturbedcanuck 3 years ago
Short of some plague or something, we are toast.
Yayapilo 3 years ago
good old america, the bigger they come, the harder they fall, and when they fall they will be drag down the rest of the world with them.
ok07734 3 years ago 2
The state of Alsaka is oil rich. And yet the government refuses to drill and tap into those proven oil fields up north.
Not to mention, we've got developing countries who don't play by the rules such as those crazy ass Chinese sucking up all of our resources in the Middle East and beyond.
The next vehicle I purchase will be an electric powered one when they are due to roll out in 2011.
YogaNate79 3 years ago
That's odd, how did "all of our resources" get buried under the Middle East?
newculture 3 years ago
high gas prices are preparing people for this very thing
Conservativesaregood 3 years ago
High gas prices are the RESULT of this very thing.
newculture 3 years ago
I'am glad that price of gas went up ! but it should go for $10,000.00 a barrel...... then the government should sell it at $500.00 a gal. then maybe we would fined other fuels....
jason74ftchip 3 years ago
If gas were $10,000/barrel, in current dollars, the entire economy would stop and most of the world would starve to death or die, because oil is the master resource of civilization. It is the blood of our civilization. Without it, our civilization could not continue.
That said, the value of oil is more than $10,000 per barrel, especially when comparing the amount of human labor energy it would take to replace what is done with oil. For example, imagine planting 80 acres by hand.
newculture 3 years ago
what about nuclear energy, coal, green energy? Movements fot these alternatives are being seen already today
klf2233 3 years ago
Every alternative possible will get increasing attention as peak oil becomes more well understood.
Coal is also non-renewable, and very polluting.
Nuclear is dangerous, requires extremely high levels of continuing service, and no permanent waste disposal solution has yet been implemented. Nevertheless, nuclear will get lots of attention.
Green energy is excellent, but 20 years are needed before peak oil to scale up the green energy infrastructure. We are probably at peak oil now.
newculture 3 years ago
I don't think politicians care about pollution, when peak oil comes they will choose the cheapest energy - coal. Besides, filtres can stop coal pollution - there's almost only CO2 getting to atmosphere which isn't a pollution - it's a natural gas. This global yelling about CO2 is bullshit, remember that thanks to CO2 the plants will grow bigger, look at Jura age
klf2233 3 years ago
Carbon dioxide is pollution -- something we are making which is not desirable. The concensus of climate scientists are telling us that this is leading to climate change.
Sure, it is natural to have a super-greenhouse Earth, in fact, that is when the oil started to form, but that doesn't mean it is desirable, or that getting there in 100 years will be pleasant.
Politicians, for the most part, do care about pollution, but it isn't the caring, it is the acting that matters.
newculture 3 years ago
30-50 yrs left. When you factor in Consumption and expansion of all countries. 30-50 years left of OIL. Prepare Yourself
JoeTube27 3 years ago
At the current rate of about 85 million barrels per day, it would all be gone in about 30 years.
This is certainly a problem, but probably not as severe as the impacts of a diminishing oil supply. As oil gets harder and harder to find and produce, the amount will decline, and a rapid shift in the entire global economy will occur.
newculture 3 years ago
Yup I agree 100%. The other question is will all the alternative energy's be enough to make up for the loss. So far all signs point to NO.
I tell people to Get out of Debt, Sell all stock and buy Gold, and probably a gun.
JoeTube27 3 years ago
Get out of debt -- yes, if possible. Some don't have that option (see housing crisis).
Sell stock -- yes, owning stock is like gambling, except you're playing at a table with professionals, and you just learned the game today. Remember, the stock markets as a whole are zero-sum games; for every dollar spent buying stocks, those same dollars will eventually be lost by someone's sales.
Gold -- probably, I've got a few ounces in the bank... but you can't eat gold.
Gun -- no for me.
newculture 3 years ago
I always wonder why people suggest getting out of debt when reading about peak oil. If things do really get bad, what will it matter? Wouldn't you be better off saving your money or using it to stock up on supplies than paying off debt? Maybe even going more into debt now to install things like a solar water heater.
evilburnttoast 3 years ago
Getting out of debt because of the risk of foreclosure and bankrupcy. Keep in mind, we are already in the peak oil era, for three years now, so we can already see why getting out of debt is a good idea.
Saving money is not a good idea because of rapid inflation; although deflation is possible; so have some cash, but not too much.
The risk of layoff is high, so reducing monthly bills as much as possible is essential.
It is a good question. More could be said about why it is important.
newculture 3 years ago
newculture, we should all pay off our home mortgages, and home equity loans...but as for unsecured debt(credit card), I say don't pay them off...pay the minimum...use them to get prepared...when the sh#t his the fan, it won't matter...they are UNSECURED!!!...they can't reposses your home for that...in fact, you can carry unpaid debt on your credit report for 7 years and then they MUST be removed. So, use up your credit cards to get ready for the comming chaos!
Yayapilo 3 years ago
That is a very interesting thought. I don't know if it would be considered ethical by most, but it is very, very interesting.
newculture 3 years ago
so will we find the alternative sun resources that will power us so much we dont have to pay for any energy (basically)and energy problems are solved.that i know will eventually have in time?
manbam97 3 years ago
We have probably discovered all of the energy sources that will ever be practical.
All energy that we use does come from the sun, in one way or another.
The energy from the sun is free, but converting it into "high quality" energy, such as a liquid fuel, is quite a challenge in most cases.
As long as peak oil doesn't happen for another 20 years, and as long as we start right now with all our efforts, we can make the tranition and keep everything we have.
We don't have 20 years.
newculture 3 years ago
We also have to make sure terrorists do not blow up oil supply's. If that happened. I believe the economy would crumble in 1 week. It would be equal to, lets say all the truckers stop moving good. Just major problems. So what year do you think everything will be hit the hardest?
JoeTube27 3 years ago
This is certainly possible, and any minor disruption could end up causing a major problem.
For example, if Venezuela stopped exporting, the USA would be in bad shape in only a few days.
The world economy is already on the knife edge. Think of what the federal reserve and governement have had to do in the past three months just to keep things going.
When will the everything hit hardest? That is a "black swan event", but it won't surprise me too much when it happens.
newculture 3 years ago
Not all energy we use comes from the sun .. Nuclear energy is not from the sun.
michaelthomas28 3 years ago
Right or wrong...
Right, nuclear does not come directly from the sun.
Wrong, nuclear is from radioactive heavy metals that were either formed in the sun and ejected, or (more likely) were formed from the parent star of our entire solar system.
Check with a professional solar astronomer to get their thought on which is most likely.
newculture 3 years ago
what ever will we do when we run out and will we find other resources that are cheap and efficient in time?
manbam97 3 years ago
Petroleum is the cheapest and most efficient form of energy we have EVER found. It is lightning in a bottle. Formed millions of years ago, used up over a few decades.
Running out is really a matter of power. Those with power will have oil for quite a while, those without power will be forced to transition to life without oil.
It is possible to live without oil. The question is, can a person live WHERE THEY ARE if they have no oil. For many, the answer is NO.
newculture 3 years ago
We say that are oil is depleting but the oil cartel says the world has plenty of oil,
what gives?????? are they trying to break us???
getfloorednj 3 years ago
There is lots of oil left in the ground, perhaps 1 trillion barrels or more. The quesion is not really "how much" but "how fast" can we get it out. This is a question of geology much more than technology
"plenty of oil" is a very point-of-view statement
newculture 3 years ago
Try "The Oil Drum" web site.
Since we are in almost a perfect market situation for oil, demand can be determined by looking at the change in price relative to the change in supply. We can tell that demand is increasing right now because the price is going up (from $10/barrel to over $100/barrel). Supply is not increasing.
Feel free to message me through LocalFuture dot org; or via YouTube.
newculture 3 years ago
Plus we have the competition with the growing economies of India and China. Perhaps the thing to do is to undermine their economies and set them back 50 years or so, thereby decreasing worldwide demand. Maybe we will get lucky and a worldwide epidemic will strike, decreasing global popluation and thus demand as well. I for one am not looking forward to $4+ per gallon.
designhumanengineer 3 years ago
One way or another, economies will be "undermined". It will either come from fuel/energy decline, or from some other factor, like a failure of food imports.
Peak oil is only a symptom of the unsustainability of our global culture.
newculture 3 years ago
This kind of nationalistic thinking will only deepen the crisis and drive us closer to World War III. We need to not only live differently, but think differently. Stop thinking about your country and start worrying about the human species. It's an international problem, and we should try to solve it internationally. The time's coming where you'll look back on $4+ with fond memories.
avantibarbari 3 years ago
The more I study Peak Oil the more I realize that it's not just our attitude toward energy must change. Our attitude toward money must change also. The notion of borrowing against future growth goes hand in hand with the expectation of ever increasing supplies of cheap oil. Debt based currency cannot exist in an era of diminishing energy without dire consequences. It's time to rethink what money is and how it works. It's that or get used to hyperinflation and economic collapse.
durangokid81301 3 years ago
Indeed, paper fiat currency is supported only by our confidence in it. The connection between the energy supply and the monetary system are not only real, but they are essential to understanding how peak oil will impact our future.
newculture 3 years ago
This video completely left out the petro dollar, and the recycling system it produces. Not to mention our economy, our currency is tied directly to it, and without it inflation sky rockets.
JigglesJingle 3 years ago
An interesting and important topic to be sure.
newculture 3 years ago
If, after the first Gulf War in 1991, the people of the United States had demanded their government invest $500 billion dollars (less than the amount the U.S. has spent for costs directly attributable to foreign oil dependence during the past ten years) into the construction of algae farms, for the production of sustainable renewable biodiesel, we would be living in a different world today.
aeroscope 3 years ago
The liquid fuels of the future will most likely be bio-fuels.
newculture 3 years ago
newculture, do you think we'll be making the switch to switchgrass & algae, instead of corn, anytime soon?
evilburnttoast 3 years ago
no
the last presentation I saw on switchgrass and cellulosic ethanol was really disappointing. It appears to be a long way off. Maybe there'll be a breakthrough, but I'm not holding my breathe for that. Might be like "fusion power", always just 50 years away.
I don't know about algae. Keep in mind, these things would have to scale up incredibly fast to be able to stabilize oil demand. Most likely, impossible.
newculture 3 years ago
The oil companies are raping the consumer. Exxon/Mobil is the largest offender. Stop buying Exxon/mobil products, they will be forced to lower their prices and the other smaller companies will have to follow.
wakeupus 3 years ago
That would have no effect. Try reading my article about that. ValueSystem dot LiveJournal dot Com.
newculture 3 years ago
Allot of this is simply obvious. But then again I guess you have to really dumb it down for some people.
DanielLeech 3 years ago
No one knows for sure how much oil there is left in the earth, but current estimates by NON-BIASED NON-SCARE TACTIC organizations show AT LEAST 200 years worth of oil at our current consumption rate, and that's just oil we know about. The problem is people are creating the oil price crisis by NOT LETTING US DRILL FOR OUR OWN OIL. DUH!!! IT'S THAT SIMPLE
almightyt 3 years ago
200 years?!?
84.5 mbpd x 365 d/y x 200 y = 6 trillion barrels!!!
This is false. Provide the evidence to back this up and repost a comment. Try checking the USGS data for example.
newculture 3 years ago
I do agree with you almightyt that no one knows how much oil is out there. The problem is the remaining oil will more than likely only be drilled in deep sea and this creates many problems of its own. You'll have the whole energy in vs energy out come into play.
We do have vast reserves of shale & oil sand, but those have fairly low EROEI's not to mention all the resources they use. We should at the most expect to use those as a transition to other enrgy, not replacement for light cheap oil.
evilburnttoast 3 years ago
It is not about 'how much oil' it is about oil FLOW - how much can be taken out of the ground each day. It is HARDER to get oil out of the ground - the DEMAND is going up. Almightyt - can you show that either of those are not true? please do so if you can.
kriscanshow 3 years ago
You know all those "nutjobs" that warn others about the Mayan Calendars prophecy and the 2012 predictions??? Well, I think that more Americans better start listening to them because looking at all the facts and data, 2012 seems like the same "area" they are "predicting" this PEAK to occur....Hmm, coincidence??? I think NOT!
SpiderMan1307 3 years ago
its scares the shit outta me when i see kids playing and think to myself..my generation is gonna pay for these old fools..and thats why i hate old people(joks) they have lived the golden age and now they die just before this place shits itself
vasoline432 3 years ago
We have plenty of oil, the liberals just won't let us drill for it.
almightyt 3 years ago
"plenty" doesn't mean anything.
There is probably about one TRILLION barrels of oil still in the ground.
It doesn't matter how much is there, the world will reach peak oil, and then the decline in oil production will begin.
newculture 3 years ago
Your statement doesn't take into account that there isn't an infinite amount of oil. Newton's second law - all systems are prone to degradation. Oil doesn't grow on trees.
bobbygnosis 3 years ago
us us us us, peak oil is not only a problem for americans.
whitec100 3 years ago
It is a problem for anyone that relies on oil for a major part of their livelihood; in particular, net oil importing countries, of which there are more every year.
newculture 3 years ago
Heat your home with wood gasstove that can save you thousands. Insulate and use electric blanket or bed warmer to save energy. Use the web sites to learn all you can about saving energy.
cdltpx 3 years ago
Thanks for this great video!!! - kris
kriscanshow 3 years ago
No problem. It was a good summer project. It started as 53 minutes, but I didn't want to *pay* YouTube, so I edited it down to 10 and added the fun clips. ;-)
If I had the time, I'd do a 5-minute one but even better and easier to understand. :-)
90% of my free time right now is working getting "The International Conference on Peak Oil & Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability" going. :-)
newculture 3 years ago
I recommend to check out the movie "The Oil Crash" on the subject....
ulysse2121 3 years ago
I'm yet to hear news of any refinery in the world that have to shut down or reduce utilization due to inability to obtain crude as feedstock. Supply is still meeting demand. World refining capacity, however, is coming up fast. The question is when will be the point that crude supply is less than refining capacity and who will get supply and who will lose out. Next year? 2010?
ArtArlockStark 3 years ago
Supply is not meeting demand. If it were, then the price per barrel of oil would still be in the $10-$30 range.
Demand is increasing. Supply is not.
This is what is meant by "supply is not meeting demand"... Supply is not increasing at the same rate as demand, and so price is rising.
Since supply is no longer rising, and is apparently "stuck" at 84.5 mbpd, no refineries can shut down, although they may need some work to refine the sour heavy crude.
newculture 3 years ago
"Supply is not meeting demand. If it were, then the price per barrel of oil would still be in the $10-$30 range."
newculture, you've forgotten that oil is a paper traded commodity.
When state run pension funds, large investment bankers, and other hedge funds dump trillions of dollars into buying oil the price goes up. Today's $106 barrels of oil have nothing to do with the amount of oil being produced. $10 - $30 barrels of oil are around the corner -- no new oil discoveries needed.
scruby 3 years ago
The analysts disagree with you. Try searching on that topic in Google News or in the Wall Street Journal. While maybe 10% of the price can be attributed to speculation, most is simple supply and demand. Take a look at the DOE E