Dave Kekich: Extreme Life Extension is Possible & Why This Would be Good for Society

[jmario232]

I would love to be part of the first generation of immortals. Keep up the good work MaxLife.

[ohfoxy89ladi]

I doubt you could get everyone to only have one child, especially if they lived for such a long period of time. Bra burning never actually happened at feminist rallies, that's a common misconception. I'm not advocating slow moving change. I'm actually really interested in extreme life extension. I just think that overpopulation is a legitimate concern.

[neoaeonian]

@ohfoxy89ladi Back in the 70s My TV said bra burning was a big deal. I believed it.

"Overpopulation" is TV's catch-all phrase for lack of food, resources and housing + global warming & pollution, 5 problems solvable with technology.

Also, the longest lived countries are having the least chjildren, and the slowest, not the fastest, population growth.

I know Bra burning is falsely sensationalized by TV. So is over-population. Besides, longevity reduces population growth. v=RUwS1uAdUcI

[ohfoxy89ladi]

what about overpopulation? Plus social change might be even more slow moving because the older generations wouldn't die off. It sounds tempting, but we should be cautious about what we wish for.

[neoaeonian]

@ohfoxy89ladi Overpopulation is only "over" when people aren't living sustainably. The number of people isn't problematic, only the lifestyle of people matters. And technology helps make things sustainable.

Also, older people aren't so stuck as you think, and we'd be even less so if we had more energy.

[ohfoxy89ladi]

@neoaeonian hmmm didn't mean to offend.

[neoaeonian]

@ohfoxy89ladi I won't take offense if you'll think deeper

"Population": My wife and I have had only one child. If everyone did exactly as we did the population would never, ever double, even if no one ever died. (math).

"Social change": Older people have been through race riots, bra burning, the pill, moon landings, the internet, the cold war and we helped elect Obama. We invented social change.

"We should be cautious": The irony is, you're advocating slow moving change here, not me.

[rockymountainwomen]

Not all of us want longevity, but we all want to feel good to the time of our death.

[colummcclelland90]

@rockymountainwomen

no we dont really dude, if we felt good until we die they we lose everything. if we degrade like we do we learn to accept it

[conradjulian]

I wonder about the $2 million dollar figure for each human life. The World Bank study "Where Is the Wealth of Nations?" which tries to price intangibles like education (e.g., human capital), political stability and the rule of law into a nation's total capital, comes up with a figure of about $512,000 per capita wealth for Americans, considerably lower than the $2 million figure Kekich postulates.

[neoaeonian]

@conradjulian Re: $2 million dollar figure for each person

That's an insurance figure, what insurance fears paying out in accidents. 512K is still a big enough number.

[OxygenBurglar]

Curing aging by 2029?! That's ridiculous. We can't cure the common cold today!

And I've read Kurzweil's books. He was flat out wrong about his predictions for 2009 (smart roads, A/V virtual reality and computers hidden in jewelry).

Face it, we're all going to die of old age. Kurzweil and the rest can wave their hands all they want, but facts are facts. Biotechnology isn't accelerating in an exponential manner.

[conradjulian]

Kekich shows a developed countries bias. At least a billion people on the planet produce, and live on, an income of about $1-$2 a day per capita. (A friend of mine jokes, "Hey, the environmentalists should love these people for 'living lightly upon the earth'!") It's not any great loss to the world's wealth when these really poor people die.

[halneufmille]

Fallacy of false choice. We have to work on poverty AND we have to work on health. Both are difficult and different problems. But it is false that we have to choose between the two.

[conradjulian]

But it looks like we're stuck with billions of people who will remain poor indefinitely. A lot more people live like the Haitians than we care to acknowledge.

[halneufmille]

True. I myself am an economist and I perfectly know how hard it is to understand why some societies thrive while others are stuck in seemingly permanent under development. I believe foreign aid can help in many respects, but there are still many things we don't understand.

[dojohansen123]

@halneufmille

"There are still many things we don't understand". That is just HILARIOUS coming from an economist. If there is another group that likes to call itself "science" that makes as consistently useless predictions as economists, please name them. Economics matter greatly and by all means keep studying. But to imply that there ARE things that economists DO understand is clearly unwarranted. ;)

Economist: A person expert at explaining today why his predictions of yesterday were wrong.

[dojohansen123]

@halneufmille

Of course we can't choose one and ignore the other; I doubt many people hold that opinion. But this does not mean there is no conflict between the two. In an overpopulated world with finite resources, what are the long-term implications of a lifespan of 200 years? 500? 1000?

I think this is just wildly unrealistic technology optimism. See Aubrey de Grey's talks from a few years ago and he was equally certain as now about the feasibility of this, for completely different reasons!

[halneufmille]

I think this discussion goes in many directions. One thing on overpopulation. There are different ways to deal with it, the best being women education, but more coercive ones have been used in China.

Concerning ressource use, my main concern is renewable ressources (eg forest, fisheries, clean air, etc.). I'm not concerned with material ressources or energy.

[halneufmille]

As for lifespans of over 200 years, if problems arise with that, we'll have to deal with them probably.. well, later than 200 years in the future. If we just make it to 2100, I'll be very happy.

And you misrepresented my profession. The real quote is: An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

[neoaeonian]

@dojohansen123 Re: world with finite resources

Every square meter of sunlight contains 1000 watts of power during the day time. Every square meter. There's plenty of resources, we just haven't solved all the needed tech yet. But we're getting there. We're advancing tech far faster than population.

With respect to population, If you do the math the lifespan matters very little compared to the birthrate. And that's declining worldwide, rapidly.

[kansas66701]

Dammit! I probably, almost definitely, will not make it til then...

[Johnius1999]

Interesting way to frame the daily loss of 100,000 people to death by aging ... in terms of the human capital & unwritten books they represent. Maybe it will help a few more people realize just how devastating the disease of aging is. We've been so used to being helpless to avoid it, that we now need to shock ourselves awake ... now that the cure to aging is within sight! 15 years 'til longevity escape velocity? That's not really so far away ...!