None of the solutions will be as good as crude oil. Crude oil is practically free energy. We have been very fortunate to have oil as an energy source. How bad is peak oil? VERY BAD! I don't think western society will be able to survive it.
Could you make a video about nuclear possibilities?
EROEI is pretty damn good for the fuel, so if we can make reactors that are resource cheap and durable, it may be a big part of an electricity economy.
We could have a scenario where instead buying gasoline as a typcial product like your buy milk or shoes....instead gasoline would be bought with "Petro Dollars" So you would buy Petro Dollars and use that to buy your fuel.
Now these Petro dollars are directly pegged to energy and not just some "Fiat" Currency. Thus people would see the relationship that energy has to money directly. Money=Energy.
I live in a rural farming community down here in Oz. We have secure food and water supply, are situated on a busy transport highway and have rail. That is the only longterm answer for anyone that is confident we are facing an imminent crisis this decade. Unfortunately those that chose not to act soon or who live with their heads in the sand will suffer the most. Getting out of the city's is priority one, the future lies in the country and peak oil will open many doors for entrepreneurs.
I agree. My first move was from a 35 minute commute to a 5 minute commute in the city. That is what made sense at the time. Then I realized 2 things.
1. I was surrounded by people that were utterly dependent on a collapsing government.
2. You only have to commute when you have job.
So I moved back out. Not quite as far, and with more land and better location, but out of the city. The city is and the place to be with a stable government, but so far that's not happening.
As much as I love the USA I am glad to live down under. I respect Americans right to bare arms but hungry jobless people and assault rifles don't bode well with law and order. I hope to be able to look back 20 years form now and laugh about how stupid it was to believe the world was falling apart but everyday I turn on the computer or read the paper, I become just a fraction more convinced... Keep up with the good work;-)
The framers of our Constitution gave us the right to bear arms as a protection from overreaching government. I don't know if it is working, but after destroying our economy and raiding the Treasury they are dropping like flies. The founders know that it would not last forever, in fact we have beat their estimates, but one by one their fears are being realized.
Don't get me wrong I am not against the right to bear arms. I don't know how effective populace haveing small arms againsty tyranical gov.
In Iraq the US allowed the civilian population to keep small arms-everything up to Ak47. The main threats to the military was heavy arms, RPG's IED"s Squad operated Machine guns.
My guess is that the current arsenal in America will be more likely used against each other but I could be wrong.
So far gun and ammo sales are up, and crime is way down. Even women around me are learning to shoot for the first time. One lady at work is about 50, and had never held a gun. She now has her own pistol and is competent with it. The crime being so low may be due to all of the assistance that they are handing out. Once they ruin the creditworthiness of the US and the dollar, it may get more violent. Or maybe Americans are getting too lazy to commit crime. I know they all but quit in cold weather.
Maybe it's just the lull before the storm. I would agree it's better to be armed then not if your comfortable with handling weapons.
I would suggest that if possible learning some martial arts-self defense techniques as your weapon may not be there when you need it.
I said this before & I'll say it again. It's the anticpation that can be worse then the actual thing your worrying about. All kinds of horrible things run through your mind. & you what they are usally worse then you imagine.
In my own life, I have seen some positive change. The electorate is energized, and big changes will be coming in the next elections. The mid term this Fall will probably change history, but there is a special election Tuesday for a dead Senators seat. Even this one seat could start changing the balance of power towards more sanity. My depression and fear bottomed out a few years ago, and now I am focusing on doing everything that I can about the situation.
Well I would liken it to combat. You are anxious wondering what is going to happen, the anticpation builds and your just ready for it to start so you can get on with it.
Once it's on a lot of the worry will probaly dissapate as you focus in on just everyday survival. Kinda of like a Neolithic Caveman. Survival day by day.
I hope your right about these elections but what is it that you expect by new representives? Are these people going to mandate an energy transition?
They will certainly not mandate an energy transition. But they may be able to slow the insane spending, and destruction of the dollar. I am afraid that without the dollar the technical society will not be able to function enough to get anything done.
Well you said you have seen postive change, I went grocery shopping with my wife at Walmart Supercenter. I noted this Big Box store had to be using enoumorus amounts of energy, from the lighting, to the heating, to the LCD tvs displays, to the food freezers to the automactic door & security systems. I would hate to see the power bill for Walmart. I also note that most of the crap in the store shipped by container ships from China, Indonesia, India.
Why should slow the insane spending have an influence to the dollar. Currencies are valued relative to each other so if all governments worldwide are printing like Ben then there is no problem and yes they do. Name one who is doing conservative money management right now.
The fact that the petrol dollar is history is unchangeable - point of no return is crossed here. But the USD still has a huge percentage in the IMF Special Drawing Rights which are in consideration as the new petrol currency
Yeah, thats why i think my industry (internet software) still has a future. Many jobs will try to eliminate commuting by using the internet technology.
And for myself. The 6,5 meter from my living room to my office - i don't need oil to handle this distance :-)
Relocalization and re-disbursement of dense population centers and a return to a more rural decentralized society is the only rational solution. Permacultureal solutions have been demonstrated to work in even the most forbidding and exhausted places. Technology is marching toward greater capabilities of decentralized manufacture and the internet provides a platform for the synthesis of shared knowledge. The challenges are very formidable but we are not unavoidably doomed to a Mad Max future.
why would you expect the politicians to do anything when all you here day after day is positive news such as the huge oil shale gas finds, Tupi and Iraq boosting production to 12 million barrels per day in six years. Why doesn't the media mention Cantrell's 80% decline since 2001. Good news= inaction
I've been Peak oil aware since 2002.. I honestely felt by now things would have been totally coming apart, but as John Michael Greer has pointed out civilizations talke a long time to unravel and do so in a stair step pattern collapso has it correct that the world will fight against the decline and won't allow field maturation and rising demand to spiral, at least not any time soon. ERoi has been a new concept for me to wrap my head around. its implications are huge.
I suppose that is the Peak Oil disscussion, talking about what could serve us in "transtion" from Fossil fuels, Boone Pickens, Natural Gas Transition & his Wind turbine scheme. Last I heard the Wind Turbine project was canceled. That was stunning to me as I thought if a Billionaire Oil tycoon failed with a reasonable plan then we are up a creek without a paddle.
So IMHO disscussion centers on transition & specualting on how this is going to play out in the future. ie time frame ect.
I don't think that the populous was ready yet. But I don't know if that means we are totally screwed. I must keep some optimism in order to continue my work. I feel the tide turning.
Well if I am glad you see the tide turning cause I don't. I have talked to ONE person in my everyday life is even aware of Peak Oil. Most people I talk to incredibly have never even heard of it.
Most people seems to be unaware about everything. Day before yesterday on my mom's birthday i was suprised that none of the 30 guests ever heared about Monsanto - which is without a single doubt currently the most evil company on earth.
90% or more people are not very up on current affairs. Their world centers around the size of their paycheck, 401k, their spouse, children, their favorite sports team & whether they are pro/anti teabaggers.
So when it comes to who makes their food, they think it comes from some farm!
Wrong! So Monsanto, AGM, Tyson are only of interst to people who own stock in these companies.
When I changed careers in 2004 to escape some of the consequences, I sat many people down and explained what I though would happen. The present situation is running about 18 months ahead of my predictions. But I don't think that anyone thought that the government would act this incompetently. After hearing PO testimony on the hill years ago, I thought that the lawmakers would be watching for it. Instead they chose to attempt "expansion" when physics showed the "shrink" card. Amazing.
People when talking about this subject tend to examine Peak Oil as if one was examining a broken computer, trying to figure out a way to fix it.
Maybe there is no "fix". Like the cancer diagnose you used as an anology in your vid here we have to accept this reality.
Like Dr's working on a cancer pt we apply everything in our arsenal to fix the problem in a vain attempt to save the patient. Maybe we are looking for ways to slow collapse or mitigate the worst parts of it.
I am not trying to be presumptous, but I guess is we are all at the same conclusion. There is no energy work around that will not have significant negative consequences for our world. And that may be an understatement. '
So like your diagnose of cancer at the start the vid, really all we can do is speculate on how this is going to unfold.
Is this going to unravel in the near term or is it going to be slower with peaks & troths. Is it more likely to cause major war?
I agree, but the cancer analogy is a very good one because many times cancer can be beat with treatment. Or you can go home and wait to die. I hope that we choose treatment.
Well you can imagine how Dr's react when they have to tell a pt they have a terminal illness. The first thing the pt asks is Doc how long have I got?
Well the Dr knows there is a range and they are reluctant to give precise timelines as some people die sooner then others so they something like 6 months to 3 years.
Well we have a similar situation here as we really don't know how long before we reach a tipping point & what measures could mititigate it.
I start to see your fundamental problem. You are trying to save your lifestyle and industrial culture. Then you really will became depressive - because you need this mysterious alien technology to save planet earth
I'm already a step further. Living in an agriculture society like Thailand changes your life. People easily reach the age of 75 without health care industry just by eating good food walking and working
We should be civilized enough to go through it without killing each other.
The thought of losing 5 billion people and living in a world without modern conveniences is very depressing indeed. Rebooting any kind of modern society after this period will also be extremely tough due to depletion of many Industrial era materials. I study real solutions because I DO NOT believe that aliens will help us.
Modern agriculture has converted an energy capture system into an energy sink. Providing the energy to keep it going is a monumental challenge. Converting back to the old system with the status of our land would support less than 1 billion.
The author James Howard Kunstler has said that a lot of Americans have bought the last car they will ever own. Relizing that is the case I did a cash for clunkers for one last ride in the last of high performance gasoline vehicle. I am enjoying it now as I know it will be my last time I will own a car to myself.
++ for this. Future is in public transportation and moving living and working locations closer together (get rid of suburbia).
The few cases were you really need individual transportation there is a concept named car sharing and for example talking a bycycle go to the next superstore, shop everything you want and wait for easy convienient door to door delivery.
Solutions exist. But not when we try to live our lives exactly as we do now. There's no need to be depressive but to be active.
Oh and just a side note to you, In the last year I purchase a gas generator, a Large computer UPS, server sized that has some issues that I am trying to fix and I have been planning on installing some solar on the house, but it is weak and inefficient and costly.
Also put back some candles.
The eclectric company here attached a device to shut down the ac periodicaly durning the summer for some energy savings claiming we would get a reduction in cost. We shall see how that works out.
Another thing that pisses me off is that they have let passenger rail service end except for some communter service in the NY Washington corridor.
While Japan, Germany and France has developed high speed bullet trains we don't even have passenger rail service coverage as they had in the 1850's.
Yeah they could have taken half the $800 billion dollar TARP built the US a High speed rail service connecting major cities, creating jobs saving energy building new tech.... sorry I'm mad AT them.
I was in my early twenties during the Oil Opec Oil shortage of Seventies. I was driving a VW Beetle & shorly after that the car companies came out with lineups of small fuel effient cars.
At that time I was certain that by the 21st century what we would have is some type of electric car.
To my surprise not only did we not have that but the vehicles were even bigger then before the gas shortage of the 70's!
Hummers!
My point is we think they will make the right decsions but they don't!
That was shattered for me a few years ago when I finally got some access to an aide to a Senator. When I realized what was happening it literally made me sick.
I only see 4 thinks that could solve this quandry. This is in no particular order.
1] The Technological Singularity-Super intelligent machines that are so advanced that it is capable of technology as advanced as ours is from Neolithic cave dwellers.
2] Finding another Super Giant Oil field, but that will just delay the onset of the problem.
3] Advanced Aliens saving our ass with advanced Alien technology.
4] somebody will come up with an Oil substitute that has the same energy density.
@valhala56 Well, this may sound political but I distinguish between "solve" and "solutions". There is certainly no way that we can continue our current standard of living over the next 10-30 years. The question is if we can prevent a permanent return to primitive human existence. Your are right that nothing can scale in the time frame that we currently need. If a technical society remains post collapse, a breeder type senario can work at EROEI of about 5.0.
There were a couple of things that held promise a couple of years ago, fuel cell technology, Super conducting EM for higher efficency electric. None has come out with anything commercial viable. The main thing that pisses me off is that they have dumped a trillion or so dollars into banks black hole, with almost zip into technolical research into "solutions"
No, not a breeder reactor. I mean the concepts of Breeder as in Breeder Solar plant. There have been studies, which are really just EROEI style feasibility studies that show that you CAN get enough energy gain while holding the lines against entropy to get ahead at least with a theoretical Solar cell factory. A factory making energy solar cells at EROEI=5 looks very promising to a growing primitive society, compared to a declining advanced one.
Oh ok, Thanks. That sounds promising in the sense that it would be outstanding for a world with less people and less power consumption needs.
Another possibility I thought of is maybe the Goverment does have a secret "Black" Los Almos or Sandia Labs type energy program and the reason they are keeping it secret is so the technology is not leaked & once perfected they could make back their investment on the world's dime. Just a guess, doub't they are that smart to be doing that.
You mean these politicians that appear to be ignorant manipulators, are actually drooling in cups to keep their poker face going, because they have it all figured out?
Jevon's Paradox aka Jevon's law, yep as we increase the efficency of heat engines it tends to end up using more fuel.
The problem with whatever tech work around you come up with, be it biological, hydrogen, electric, nuclear, solar whatever is scale.
You can buy a kit to convert a mercedes to run on used fast food grease, but it doesn't scale up for a country of 300 million people. There is not enough used grease or OId Mercedes to work with.
None of the solutions will be as good as crude oil. Crude oil is practically free energy. We have been very fortunate to have oil as an energy source. How bad is peak oil? VERY BAD! I don't think western society will be able to survive it.
crbrown27 1 year ago
Could you make a video about nuclear possibilities?
EROEI is pretty damn good for the fuel, so if we can make reactors that are resource cheap and durable, it may be a big part of an electricity economy.
bwelkk 2 years ago
Something rarely talked about in Peak Oil circles is rationing. Probaly would even be more unpoular then the Healthcare debacle we just went through.
However rationing would bring this reality to the public.
Why wait till there are actual shortages, they could start a rationing program now or sell fuel in "Petro dollars"
People always bitch how the dollar is backed by nothing, How about dollars backed by energy?
These are just idea's in my head, probaly not feasible but should be discussed
valhala56 2 years ago
We could have a scenario where instead buying gasoline as a typcial product like your buy milk or shoes....instead gasoline would be bought with "Petro Dollars" So you would buy Petro Dollars and use that to buy your fuel.
Now these Petro dollars are directly pegged to energy and not just some "Fiat" Currency. Thus people would see the relationship that energy has to money directly. Money=Energy.
Just an idea man, what do you think Collapso?
valhala56 2 years ago
I live in a rural farming community down here in Oz. We have secure food and water supply, are situated on a busy transport highway and have rail. That is the only longterm answer for anyone that is confident we are facing an imminent crisis this decade. Unfortunately those that chose not to act soon or who live with their heads in the sand will suffer the most. Getting out of the city's is priority one, the future lies in the country and peak oil will open many doors for entrepreneurs.
johnTconover 2 years ago
I agree. My first move was from a 35 minute commute to a 5 minute commute in the city. That is what made sense at the time. Then I realized 2 things.
1. I was surrounded by people that were utterly dependent on a collapsing government.
2. You only have to commute when you have job.
So I moved back out. Not quite as far, and with more land and better location, but out of the city. The city is and the place to be with a stable government, but so far that's not happening.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
As much as I love the USA I am glad to live down under. I respect Americans right to bare arms but hungry jobless people and assault rifles don't bode well with law and order. I hope to be able to look back 20 years form now and laugh about how stupid it was to believe the world was falling apart but everyday I turn on the computer or read the paper, I become just a fraction more convinced... Keep up with the good work;-)
johnTconover 2 years ago
The framers of our Constitution gave us the right to bear arms as a protection from overreaching government. I don't know if it is working, but after destroying our economy and raiding the Treasury they are dropping like flies. The founders know that it would not last forever, in fact we have beat their estimates, but one by one their fears are being realized.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Don't get me wrong I am not against the right to bear arms. I don't know how effective populace haveing small arms againsty tyranical gov.
In Iraq the US allowed the civilian population to keep small arms-everything up to Ak47. The main threats to the military was heavy arms, RPG's IED"s Squad operated Machine guns.
My guess is that the current arsenal in America will be more likely used against each other but I could be wrong.
valhala56 2 years ago
So far gun and ammo sales are up, and crime is way down. Even women around me are learning to shoot for the first time. One lady at work is about 50, and had never held a gun. She now has her own pistol and is competent with it. The crime being so low may be due to all of the assistance that they are handing out. Once they ruin the creditworthiness of the US and the dollar, it may get more violent. Or maybe Americans are getting too lazy to commit crime. I know they all but quit in cold weather.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Maybe it's just the lull before the storm. I would agree it's better to be armed then not if your comfortable with handling weapons.
I would suggest that if possible learning some martial arts-self defense techniques as your weapon may not be there when you need it.
I said this before & I'll say it again. It's the anticpation that can be worse then the actual thing your worrying about. All kinds of horrible things run through your mind. & you what they are usally worse then you imagine.
valhala56 2 years ago
In my own life, I have seen some positive change. The electorate is energized, and big changes will be coming in the next elections. The mid term this Fall will probably change history, but there is a special election Tuesday for a dead Senators seat. Even this one seat could start changing the balance of power towards more sanity. My depression and fear bottomed out a few years ago, and now I am focusing on doing everything that I can about the situation.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Well I would liken it to combat. You are anxious wondering what is going to happen, the anticpation builds and your just ready for it to start so you can get on with it.
Once it's on a lot of the worry will probaly dissapate as you focus in on just everyday survival. Kinda of like a Neolithic Caveman. Survival day by day.
I hope your right about these elections but what is it that you expect by new representives? Are these people going to mandate an energy transition?
valhala56 2 years ago
They will certainly not mandate an energy transition. But they may be able to slow the insane spending, and destruction of the dollar. I am afraid that without the dollar the technical society will not be able to function enough to get anything done.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Well you said you have seen postive change, I went grocery shopping with my wife at Walmart Supercenter. I noted this Big Box store had to be using enoumorus amounts of energy, from the lighting, to the heating, to the LCD tvs displays, to the food freezers to the automactic door & security systems. I would hate to see the power bill for Walmart. I also note that most of the crap in the store shipped by container ships from China, Indonesia, India.
It's mind boggling when you think about it.
valhala56 2 years ago
Why should slow the insane spending have an influence to the dollar. Currencies are valued relative to each other so if all governments worldwide are printing like Ben then there is no problem and yes they do. Name one who is doing conservative money management right now.
The fact that the petrol dollar is history is unchangeable - point of no return is crossed here. But the USD still has a huge percentage in the IMF Special Drawing Rights which are in consideration as the new petrol currency
llothar68 2 years ago
Comment removed
valhala56 2 years ago
"2. You only have to commute when you have job."
Yeah, thats why i think my industry (internet software) still has a future. Many jobs will try to eliminate commuting by using the internet technology.
And for myself. The 6,5 meter from my living room to my office - i don't need oil to handle this distance :-)
llothar68 2 years ago
Relocalization and re-disbursement of dense population centers and a return to a more rural decentralized society is the only rational solution. Permacultureal solutions have been demonstrated to work in even the most forbidding and exhausted places. Technology is marching toward greater capabilities of decentralized manufacture and the internet provides a platform for the synthesis of shared knowledge. The challenges are very formidable but we are not unavoidably doomed to a Mad Max future.
TheNewRenaissance 2 years ago
why would you expect the politicians to do anything when all you here day after day is positive news such as the huge oil shale gas finds, Tupi and Iraq boosting production to 12 million barrels per day in six years. Why doesn't the media mention Cantrell's 80% decline since 2001. Good news= inaction
dustmonk74 2 years ago
Ya, But then again they demand good news, as in the IEA reports.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
I've been Peak oil aware since 2002.. I honestely felt by now things would have been totally coming apart, but as John Michael Greer has pointed out civilizations talke a long time to unravel and do so in a stair step pattern collapso has it correct that the world will fight against the decline and won't allow field maturation and rising demand to spiral, at least not any time soon. ERoi has been a new concept for me to wrap my head around. its implications are huge.
dustmonk74 2 years ago
I suppose that is the Peak Oil disscussion, talking about what could serve us in "transtion" from Fossil fuels, Boone Pickens, Natural Gas Transition & his Wind turbine scheme. Last I heard the Wind Turbine project was canceled. That was stunning to me as I thought if a Billionaire Oil tycoon failed with a reasonable plan then we are up a creek without a paddle.
So IMHO disscussion centers on transition & specualting on how this is going to play out in the future. ie time frame ect.
valhala56 2 years ago
I don't think that the populous was ready yet. But I don't know if that means we are totally screwed. I must keep some optimism in order to continue my work. I feel the tide turning.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Well if I am glad you see the tide turning cause I don't. I have talked to ONE person in my everyday life is even aware of Peak Oil. Most people I talk to incredibly have never even heard of it.
valhala56 2 years ago
Most people seems to be unaware about everything. Day before yesterday on my mom's birthday i was suprised that none of the 30 guests ever heared about Monsanto - which is without a single doubt currently the most evil company on earth.
llothar68 2 years ago
90% or more people are not very up on current affairs. Their world centers around the size of their paycheck, 401k, their spouse, children, their favorite sports team & whether they are pro/anti teabaggers.
So when it comes to who makes their food, they think it comes from some farm!
Wrong! So Monsanto, AGM, Tyson are only of interst to people who own stock in these companies.
Not surprising. Just the way most people are.
valhala56 2 years ago
When I changed careers in 2004 to escape some of the consequences, I sat many people down and explained what I though would happen. The present situation is running about 18 months ahead of my predictions. But I don't think that anyone thought that the government would act this incompetently. After hearing PO testimony on the hill years ago, I thought that the lawmakers would be watching for it. Instead they chose to attempt "expansion" when physics showed the "shrink" card. Amazing.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
People when talking about this subject tend to examine Peak Oil as if one was examining a broken computer, trying to figure out a way to fix it.
Maybe there is no "fix". Like the cancer diagnose you used as an anology in your vid here we have to accept this reality.
Like Dr's working on a cancer pt we apply everything in our arsenal to fix the problem in a vain attempt to save the patient. Maybe we are looking for ways to slow collapse or mitigate the worst parts of it.
valhala56 2 years ago
I am not trying to be presumptous, but I guess is we are all at the same conclusion. There is no energy work around that will not have significant negative consequences for our world. And that may be an understatement. '
So like your diagnose of cancer at the start the vid, really all we can do is speculate on how this is going to unfold.
Is this going to unravel in the near term or is it going to be slower with peaks & troths. Is it more likely to cause major war?
valhala56 2 years ago
I agree, but the cancer analogy is a very good one because many times cancer can be beat with treatment. Or you can go home and wait to die. I hope that we choose treatment.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Well you can imagine how Dr's react when they have to tell a pt they have a terminal illness. The first thing the pt asks is Doc how long have I got?
Well the Dr knows there is a range and they are reluctant to give precise timelines as some people die sooner then others so they something like 6 months to 3 years.
Well we have a similar situation here as we really don't know how long before we reach a tipping point & what measures could mititigate it.
valhala56 2 years ago
Ya, we are definitely in the range of experimental treatment. The problem is we need cool minds and not fantasy solutions.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
I start to see your fundamental problem. You are trying to save your lifestyle and industrial culture. Then you really will became depressive - because you need this mysterious alien technology to save planet earth
I'm already a step further. Living in an agriculture society like Thailand changes your life. People easily reach the age of 75 without health care industry just by eating good food walking and working
We should be civilized enough to go through it without killing each other.
llothar68 2 years ago
The thought of losing 5 billion people and living in a world without modern conveniences is very depressing indeed. Rebooting any kind of modern society after this period will also be extremely tough due to depletion of many Industrial era materials. I study real solutions because I DO NOT believe that aliens will help us.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
5 billions, no way, unless someone with nukes is really going crazy.
To be honest i don't worry to much about it for Europe and USA. Both have enough opportunities to grow food and both are not overpopulated.
I recommand to watch the BBC documentary "A farm for the future" from Rebecca Hoskins.
I have only little hope for the majority of people in India, China, Korea, Japan, Egypt or Arabia.
llothar68 2 years ago
Modern agriculture has converted an energy capture system into an energy sink. Providing the energy to keep it going is a monumental challenge. Converting back to the old system with the status of our land would support less than 1 billion.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
@bigcollapso
Please take the time and watch the video
watch?v=xShCEKL-mQ8
llothar68 2 years ago
Ok, I did.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@bigcollapso:
"Converting back to the old system with the status of our land would support less than 1 billion. "
Europe and USA together only have 750 millon.
Asia will have the biggest problems and Africa/Australia because of huge desertification effects.
llothar68 2 years ago
The author James Howard Kunstler has said that a lot of Americans have bought the last car they will ever own. Relizing that is the case I did a cash for clunkers for one last ride in the last of high performance gasoline vehicle. I am enjoying it now as I know it will be my last time I will own a car to myself.
valhala56 2 years ago
++ for this. Future is in public transportation and moving living and working locations closer together (get rid of suburbia).
The few cases were you really need individual transportation there is a concept named car sharing and for example talking a bycycle go to the next superstore, shop everything you want and wait for easy convienient door to door delivery.
Solutions exist. But not when we try to live our lives exactly as we do now. There's no need to be depressive but to be active.
llothar68 2 years ago
Oh and just a side note to you, In the last year I purchase a gas generator, a Large computer UPS, server sized that has some issues that I am trying to fix and I have been planning on installing some solar on the house, but it is weak and inefficient and costly.
Also put back some candles.
The eclectric company here attached a device to shut down the ac periodicaly durning the summer for some energy savings claiming we would get a reduction in cost. We shall see how that works out.
valhala56 2 years ago
Another thing that pisses me off is that they have let passenger rail service end except for some communter service in the NY Washington corridor.
While Japan, Germany and France has developed high speed bullet trains we don't even have passenger rail service coverage as they had in the 1850's.
Yeah they could have taken half the $800 billion dollar TARP built the US a High speed rail service connecting major cities, creating jobs saving energy building new tech.... sorry I'm mad AT them.
valhala56 2 years ago
Very true, but a sound asleep electorate has put them in power.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Yes thats strange. It seems to be only us tourists which take the train in the USA. Amtrack helped me to meet a lot of nice people from everywhere.
An surpisingly expensive (compared to Europe) but amazing way to discover your country.
llothar68 2 years ago
I was in my early twenties during the Oil Opec Oil shortage of Seventies. I was driving a VW Beetle & shorly after that the car companies came out with lineups of small fuel effient cars.
At that time I was certain that by the 21st century what we would have is some type of electric car.
To my surprise not only did we not have that but the vehicles were even bigger then before the gas shortage of the 70's!
Hummers!
My point is we think they will make the right decsions but they don't!
valhala56 2 years ago
That was shattered for me a few years ago when I finally got some access to an aide to a Senator. When I realized what was happening it literally made me sick.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
I only see 4 thinks that could solve this quandry. This is in no particular order.
1] The Technological Singularity-Super intelligent machines that are so advanced that it is capable of technology as advanced as ours is from Neolithic cave dwellers.
2] Finding another Super Giant Oil field, but that will just delay the onset of the problem.
3] Advanced Aliens saving our ass with advanced Alien technology.
4] somebody will come up with an Oil substitute that has the same energy density.
valhala56 2 years ago
@valhala56 Well, this may sound political but I distinguish between "solve" and "solutions". There is certainly no way that we can continue our current standard of living over the next 10-30 years. The question is if we can prevent a permanent return to primitive human existence. Your are right that nothing can scale in the time frame that we currently need. If a technical society remains post collapse, a breeder type senario can work at EROEI of about 5.0.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Are you talking about a breeder reactor?
Or some type of nano technology?
There were a couple of things that held promise a couple of years ago, fuel cell technology, Super conducting EM for higher efficency electric. None has come out with anything commercial viable. The main thing that pisses me off is that they have dumped a trillion or so dollars into banks black hole, with almost zip into technolical research into "solutions"
What are our leadership thinking?
valhala56 2 years ago
No, not a breeder reactor. I mean the concepts of Breeder as in Breeder Solar plant. There have been studies, which are really just EROEI style feasibility studies that show that you CAN get enough energy gain while holding the lines against entropy to get ahead at least with a theoretical Solar cell factory. A factory making energy solar cells at EROEI=5 looks very promising to a growing primitive society, compared to a declining advanced one.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Oh ok, Thanks. That sounds promising in the sense that it would be outstanding for a world with less people and less power consumption needs.
Another possibility I thought of is maybe the Goverment does have a secret "Black" Los Almos or Sandia Labs type energy program and the reason they are keeping it secret is so the technology is not leaked & once perfected they could make back their investment on the world's dime. Just a guess, doub't they are that smart to be doing that.
valhala56 2 years ago
You mean these politicians that appear to be ignorant manipulators, are actually drooling in cups to keep their poker face going, because they have it all figured out?
bigcollapso 2 years ago
@valhala56
Wasn't there a (5) in the last issue of the Watch-Tower? God coming back to earth saving the good and kicking a lot of asses?
llothar68 2 years ago
Jevon's Paradox aka Jevon's law, yep as we increase the efficency of heat engines it tends to end up using more fuel.
The problem with whatever tech work around you come up with, be it biological, hydrogen, electric, nuclear, solar whatever is scale.
You can buy a kit to convert a mercedes to run on used fast food grease, but it doesn't scale up for a country of 300 million people. There is not enough used grease or OId Mercedes to work with.
valhala56 2 years ago
Yup.
bigcollapso 2 years ago