Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques

[Ballistophile]

Your just uneducated Spartreeman. Thankyou for quick refreshing insight into PRA.

[Spartreeman]

I apologize...was being a smart ass......my point was, alot of people in the industry (arboriculture) do not seem to have the time to engage in "engineer shit" as I called it....its seems to me it would be better to present it in such a way as to not be so complicated....I would like to learn more

[2AESC]

I agree with you about the material being too complicated at first glance. And you wouldn't undertake this kind of analysis for trivial matters. But when lives or large enough financial losses are at stake it is well worth the effort.

[2AESC]

The approach has its roots in the early nuclear power era, where accidents could jeopardize many live. And in the years after that other industries have adopted it for highly critical systems.

This methodology has two very important benefits, one of which is that it makes the analyst(s) think about all possible catastrophic scenarios, second it produces a quantitative measure that can be used as a measuring scale for comparisons.

Let me know if you are interested in further details.

[Spartreeman]

LEK!, what about using Murphy's Law as a rule of thumb, rather than all that graph engineer shit!. Every tree is different, you can't apply rules to it...except Law of Gravity, Newton's Laws, ummmm ok anyhoooo that was a bit excessive NO?

[2AESC]

Murphy's Law is an excellent guidance. But PRA is a probabilistic approach to some problems. It has to do with probability theory & not the ones you mentioned. I am not sure what you mean by "engineer shit", but the same pricipal is also used in certain engineering applications. This approach is also widely used by NASA, NRC & FAA to predict & prevent hazards (save lives). If you care to learn more, let us know.