we are living in the most heavily manipulated market in history. i just can't take the time to sit through too much technical analysis, although you've clearly worked hard at this and make an interesting case. I have friends who can talk circles around me when it comes to economics, yet they're the same friends who told me not to worry in august 2008 and that gold hit a ceiling at $1,000, or $1250. it doesn't matter if the market is up when your gains on the DOW are negated by rising prices.
Same here bro. My view is that the financing & banking dudes pushing complicated economic theories don't have a clue themselves what's going on. Most of them are just rolling dice.
With all those PhDs sitting on the federal reserve, the only solution they can come up with to any problem is "print more money".
More and more, economics as its currently practiced is looking like a money printing racket rather than a science.
smart money is selling , you can see it in the volume , they will bring this market down hard, no way will they take it that long term high. thanks for posting max
your structure is off again. at 11:46 you call the rally off the march low as a complex A which ends at April 2010 (so we call it a corrective 3). then you have a corrective B which is small in price and then a 5 wave C to give a larger (d). so you are saying the structure is 3-3-5, but your B is way too small in price for it to be considered a B wave of a flat - 3-3-5. so far the market has proven my count, the rally looks like a wave 3 since the 1040. i think a new high will be made soon.
No the market rally off the March lows is a tripple zig zag completed (5 waves although corrective (w-x-y-xx-z)). I am not arguing for a flat and a 61.8% retracement of the rally to April highs is hardly "small" (if we get it).
Essentially I think it is a "zig-zag" of some form, but the A leg of this zigzag consists of 5 waves (w-x-y-xx-z) instead of conventional 5 waves which each have impulsive subdivisions.
@Andronichuk ok, so you are saying you have a zig-zag of the form 3-3-5. no such thing. the 3-3-5 is a flat and since the B wave has only done 61.8% it is too small. B waves should be at a minimum 80% retrace. so either you call the rally from 1010 - 1130 as a clear 5 wave impulse, then you could call it a zigzag 5-3-5. what i am getting at is, you can't have a complex correction and call it the Wave A of a ZigZag... this is completely wrong.
@tradeyourwayout Although i may not be completely agreed with this count, i think you got confused here for abit. He's calling this a triple zig-zag. Triple zig-zag may not alway be a 3 waves structure. It could certainly be a 5 waves if the middle zig-zag is an extended one.
@tradeyourwayout Complex corrections cannot be wave a. However, triple combinations, Yes.
Im not too sure why you keep insisting that the recent moves is implusive. The rally of march could alway be wave b which is imcompleted and it could alway take us higher. Even if this rally take out april high, it can alway still be wave b
@marque1999 in no way am i insisting that the move is impulsive off the 1010 low. what i am trying to show is that there is no way you can call a complex leg a Wave A of a zigzag - this is the wrong structure, and this means the count is wrong. come on, please "Even if this rally take out april high, it can alway still be wave b"... very unlikely.
@marque1999 in no way am i insisting that the move is impulsive off the 1010 low. what i am trying to show is that there is no way you can call a complex leg a Wave A of a zigzag - this is the wrong structure, and this means the count is wrong. come on, please "Even if this rally take out april high, it can alway still be wave b"... very unlikely, this is forcing a count.
@marque1999 "complex corrections cannot be wave a. However, triple combinations, Yes" you have no idea what you are talking about... complex corrections and triple combinations are the same thing!!!
@tradeyourwayout Im refering to "Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)"
Pray tell me if a triple combination can be a wave a, no?
Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle) are not the same as triple combination! Im not too sure about other books....In R.Pretcher book, he's didnt mentioned complex correction n combinations are the same thing!
@tradeyourwayout I've only read that book once....pray quote me where in the page did it ever mentioned "Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle) and triple combinations is the same thing!"
You have got no idea what i am talking about. Yeah
@tradeyourwayout Ok my bad. Indeed a triple zig-zag cannot be the wave a of a bigger degree zig-zap coz the internals just doesnt have a 5 waves even if itself is a 5 waves structure.
Hey you didnt pay me for the comments right? We could use abit of courtesy here!
@philolson321 I don't mind opposing opinions... but let me know why you think I am "off my rocker". Honestly I am not preaching on here... I always welcome discussion and debate and sharing of ideas.
I more than doubled my mid December put options on Friday as the S&P surged. So I hope you are right Max (gulp).
But seeing how the stock market has defied the laws of gravity since March 2009, I'm unsure if I'm blowing my load too soon. Oh well.
One question :How can the stock market take off "onwards and upwards" after it hits 9000+ ? What will drive the stock market up ? Personally I don't understand how the market has got to where it is on terrible fundamentals.
@orangedac All down to low interest rates and quantitative easing...
Low interest rates leaves the investors out there unable to get a real return at the banks.. so they will need to put their money somewhere to atleast protect against inflation.
At 9000+ the dividend yeilds on individual stocks will look pretty attractive... I suspect this is what will suck investors in for another rally up. But I agree with you, the REAL fundamentals are horrible... but they have been since 2000.
Dividends? really? Do enough companies offer dividends to balance out the market? In a market where 80% of the population only has 15% of the wealth I don't understand how this is reasonable in the face of deflation. If wages don't increase, prices can't increase without crushing the economy which eventually pulls down profit and then dividends get axed. PE ratio's are so off, there is more deflation coming to fix that, because I just can't see the capitalist paying people more.
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YOU WILL BURN IN HELL FOR THIS BLACK MAGIC!!!
GreatVomitto 1 year ago
thank you for your nice videos and analysis!!
kapetsonis 1 year ago
we are living in the most heavily manipulated market in history. i just can't take the time to sit through too much technical analysis, although you've clearly worked hard at this and make an interesting case. I have friends who can talk circles around me when it comes to economics, yet they're the same friends who told me not to worry in august 2008 and that gold hit a ceiling at $1,000, or $1250. it doesn't matter if the market is up when your gains on the DOW are negated by rising prices.
jacksoncarreras 1 year ago
@jacksoncarreras I agree with you... the real returns on any growth of the Dow are going to be minimal (if not negative)....
One chart that illustrates the picture better than I can articulate is the Dow priced in terms of Gold...
Has been falling non stop since late 1999... infact it is now down around 80%!!!
Most people think that when I say the market should go higher that I am optimistic on the economic fundamentals... not so....
My main point is that the markets are NOT perfect!
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@jacksoncarreras
Same here bro. My view is that the financing & banking dudes pushing complicated economic theories don't have a clue themselves what's going on. Most of them are just rolling dice.
With all those PhDs sitting on the federal reserve, the only solution they can come up with to any problem is "print more money".
More and more, economics as its currently practiced is looking like a money printing racket rather than a science.
orangedac 1 year ago
smart money is selling , you can see it in the volume , they will bring this market down hard, no way will they take it that long term high. thanks for posting max
cosmicguerilla1 1 year ago
your structure is off again. at 11:46 you call the rally off the march low as a complex A which ends at April 2010 (so we call it a corrective 3). then you have a corrective B which is small in price and then a 5 wave C to give a larger (d). so you are saying the structure is 3-3-5, but your B is way too small in price for it to be considered a B wave of a flat - 3-3-5. so far the market has proven my count, the rally looks like a wave 3 since the 1040. i think a new high will be made soon.
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout
No the market rally off the March lows is a tripple zig zag completed (5 waves although corrective (w-x-y-xx-z)). I am not arguing for a flat and a 61.8% retracement of the rally to April highs is hardly "small" (if we get it).
Essentially I think it is a "zig-zag" of some form, but the A leg of this zigzag consists of 5 waves (w-x-y-xx-z) instead of conventional 5 waves which each have impulsive subdivisions.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk ok, so you are saying you have a zig-zag of the form 3-3-5. no such thing. the 3-3-5 is a flat and since the B wave has only done 61.8% it is too small. B waves should be at a minimum 80% retrace. so either you call the rally from 1010 - 1130 as a clear 5 wave impulse, then you could call it a zigzag 5-3-5. what i am getting at is, you can't have a complex correction and call it the Wave A of a ZigZag... this is completely wrong.
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout Although i may not be completely agreed with this count, i think you got confused here for abit. He's calling this a triple zig-zag. Triple zig-zag may not alway be a 3 waves structure. It could certainly be a 5 waves if the middle zig-zag is an extended one.
marque1999 1 year ago
Comment removed
marque1999 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout Complex corrections cannot be wave a. However, triple combinations, Yes.
Im not too sure why you keep insisting that the recent moves is implusive. The rally of march could alway be wave b which is imcompleted and it could alway take us higher. Even if this rally take out april high, it can alway still be wave b
marque1999 1 year ago
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@marque1999 in no way am i insisting that the move is impulsive off the 1010 low. what i am trying to show is that there is no way you can call a complex leg a Wave A of a zigzag - this is the wrong structure, and this means the count is wrong. come on, please "Even if this rally take out april high, it can alway still be wave b"... very unlikely.
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
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@marque1999 in no way am i insisting that the move is impulsive off the 1010 low. what i am trying to show is that there is no way you can call a complex leg a Wave A of a zigzag - this is the wrong structure, and this means the count is wrong. come on, please "Even if this rally take out april high, it can alway still be wave b"... very unlikely, this is forcing a count.
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
@marque1999 "complex corrections cannot be wave a. However, triple combinations, Yes" you have no idea what you are talking about... complex corrections and triple combinations are the same thing!!!
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout Im refering to "Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)"
Pray tell me if a triple combination can be a wave a, no?
Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle) are not the same as triple combination! Im not too sure about other books....In R.Pretcher book, he's didnt mentioned complex correction n combinations are the same thing!
marque1999 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout I've only read that book once....pray quote me where in the page did it ever mentioned "Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle) and triple combinations is the same thing!"
You have got no idea what i am talking about. Yeah
marque1999 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout Ok my bad. Indeed a triple zig-zag cannot be the wave a of a bigger degree zig-zap coz the internals just doesnt have a 5 waves even if itself is a 5 waves structure.
Hey you didnt pay me for the comments right? We could use abit of courtesy here!
marque1999 1 year ago
You are off your rocker if you think this market is headed up over the long-term.
philolson321 1 year ago 2
@philolson321 I don't mind opposing opinions... but let me know why you think I am "off my rocker". Honestly I am not preaching on here... I always welcome discussion and debate and sharing of ideas.
Why do you think this to be impossible?
Andronichuk 1 year ago
Your pilot Max.
I more than doubled my mid December put options on Friday as the S&P surged. So I hope you are right Max (gulp).
But seeing how the stock market has defied the laws of gravity since March 2009, I'm unsure if I'm blowing my load too soon. Oh well.
One question :How can the stock market take off "onwards and upwards" after it hits 9000+ ? What will drive the stock market up ? Personally I don't understand how the market has got to where it is on terrible fundamentals.
orangedac 1 year ago
@orangedac All down to low interest rates and quantitative easing...
Low interest rates leaves the investors out there unable to get a real return at the banks.. so they will need to put their money somewhere to atleast protect against inflation.
At 9000+ the dividend yeilds on individual stocks will look pretty attractive... I suspect this is what will suck investors in for another rally up. But I agree with you, the REAL fundamentals are horrible... but they have been since 2000.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk
Dividends? really? Do enough companies offer dividends to balance out the market? In a market where 80% of the population only has 15% of the wealth I don't understand how this is reasonable in the face of deflation. If wages don't increase, prices can't increase without crushing the economy which eventually pulls down profit and then dividends get axed. PE ratio's are so off, there is more deflation coming to fix that, because I just can't see the capitalist paying people more.
measax 1 year ago
@orangedac take any explaination you like.....it will never be the cause.....
the fact is the trend is still your friend....
jpandyaraja 1 year ago
Thanks Max, Excellent video. Hope to catch you soon on the lounge once you have settled into the academic year.
Sjag4ever 1 year ago