Futurology school: 'Some of his previous predictions have not come to pass'

[RealityGrapple]

fundamentalist transhumanist kook.

the end.

[yak6ex]

wheres the rest?

[DK0526]

idiots are misquoting him over and over...WTF doesnt anyone do any research before they just blab blab blab back and forth!

[bighands69]

What these to guys seem not to be able to differentiate is achievable technology and Ubiquitous technology.

Allot of people seem not to be able to understand this.

Kurzweil first predicts technology that has been achieved such as google driverless car and then predicts their widespread use. Super Computers today are 10^16 computations per second. which is at human brain computational levels.

[CalumnMcAulay]

they underestimating his accuracy in predicting the future - they mentioned a couple that are slightly off mark!

[ss11s]

"no one thinks he is an idiot", too bad we can't say that for you

[SCRuBSfANdB]

WTF? These guys are misquoting him SOOO much. He said a human level computer by 2030 (with the "software" to go with it). And there are "TV glasses" around to day. They cost 250 dollars and can plug into your iphone/pod.

[rickballance]

Well you did not really show his competence objectively. From his about 109 predictions in principle only around 10 or so "really" failed.

He even predicted the global rise of the internet when it was still a military project. It seems not fair to exeggregate the predictions he botched, he absolutely is the person you want to listen to when it comes to the future of technology/nano/bio/info because his predictive track record is absolutely unrivaled.

[bighands69]

super computers have already surpassed the power of human brain.

People have been holding kurzweils perdictions down to years days and months.

People do not want to except that computers are going to surpass human intelligence.

The singularity cannot be stopped it is just a matter of when.

[Shadowstar204]

1:35 - Actually 2029 is the predicted year that computers will match the human brain, where are these guys getting their information? They are saying that he said 2010! And although it has already been mentioned, it is worth repeating - We DO have contacts with displays. If you are going to criticize something, be sure you get your information right. In fact most of his predictions have been really accurate.

[oddjobmj]

Ah, well, we DO have contacts with displays. Kurzweil didn't say it would be ubiquitous.  The exact date of the 'predictions', however, are irrelevant. It's simply a set of examples on how technology will progress. Consumers being one of the many other factors that play into whether a technology becomes ubiquitous.

"If you hit on the bingo one..." Right, so, of the majority of his 'predictions' that were accurate, the few that are NOT 'bingo' ones are the 'bingo' ones for the skeptics.

[matchbox555]

these idiots are not quoting kurweil accurately at all

[Mindtrixx07]

What are these asses talking about? Kurtzweil never said we would have retinal display by 2005? Or AI by 2010?

[Singularity2010]

We already have AI - it is in the integration of human minds, computers and networks. What is happening now is an accelerating shift towards more and more machine.

[Mindtrixx07]

AI by what standard? In the most limited since perhaps... What is going on here is evolution. The difference is that we are the first species to take control of it. No longer are we at the random whim of Nature's blind experiments. Heres the deal: Machines are being designed based on biology... humans are integrating more machines into their person... ergo, it is not one taking over the other! We are slowly melding so that one is indistinguishable from the other.

[oneplanet07]

some of the predictions that haven't come into use have a lot to do with people excepting the technology it doesn't mean they are not able to do it .

[RyanB0011]

At least most of his predictions have come to pass.....unlike the religious second coming of jesus. which will never come to pass.

[CrimsonDecay]

I too, am an atheist... but you sir, are a troll

[leppy111]

I call 2015, once the infrastructure is in place it will snowball. Things like 3d digital projection can be crossovers to other technologies, they are stepping stones to greater and evermore sophisticated tech, artificial eyes and senses for example.

[couga8888]

He never predicted AI for 2010 lol.

They don't even know what they're talking about.

Kurzweil might be wrong but he might be right too.

After all he predicted the massive internet spread.

end of the URSS, chess computer able to beat human best player by 1997 etc..

He also predicted retinal projection for 2010 and apparently it won't really happen, it's more digital 3d cinema and games (movie avatar for instance) ps4 probably in 3D etc..

Most important is AI by 2030 that can upgrade themselves.

[Singularity2010]

No, I have predicted it for 2010. And by the end of 2010 it will be too late, because the memetic infection of the organization already makes our leaders so artificially intelligent, we will be at the point of no return. You don't have a clue how close we are.

[leppy111]

Most people don't even know what it is, the mapping of the genome was part of the singularity, it took the scientific 10 years to do so but most of that time was used to invent the technology to do so. these two clowns talking here are typical of the British, very condescending as if Kurzweil doesn't have the brains to pull this off. He may not, but the people that he gathers around him do.

[Singularity2010]

These two clowns are artificially intelligent. I do not know if Kurzweil's approach is brilliant, because humans should stop AI, and Kurzweil may be deliberately using negative psychology to work towards mobilizing humanity against technology. If not he is an utter idiot, because merging with AI is nearly certainly going to be equivalent to rapid human extinction; or the absolute destruction of any vestiges of what is human. Humans do not want human extinction. Or do we? Then we are utter idiots

[couga8888]

The concept is not merging with an AI, it's extend human intelligence with non organic material.

[Singularity2010]

Absolutely idotic rationalization, couga8888. When machine intelligence is thousands of times more intelligent than natural human intelligence, the whole human body will be obsolete and will be replaced. That is 100% integration and exactly the same as human extinction.

[pokeshark]

no, you are.

[Mindtrixx07]

The singularity is inevitable. There is no stopping it... just like cloning.. you can make it illegal or whatever but there will always be some mad scientist in some basement working on the issue... Beyond that I loathe where we are as a species... genocide, starvation and ignorance abound ( and im sure someone will have something ignorant to say about that, which simply proves my point) Caterpillars become butterflies... We dont say the caterpillar is extinct?

[Singularity2010]

It is extremely unlikely that the singularity can be stopped; but NOT impossible.

[Celly222]

Wow who are the 2 people talking here that have no clue? The singularity is predicted for 2029, not 2010. Jees. And i never heard him ever mention anything about monitors, let alone say they will be gone this year.

Was this video done as a joke?

[Amirica1st]

But I still love England, no doubt and cheers and all.

[Amirica1st]

You skeptical ignorant limeys. He NEVER said computer screens would be obsolete by 2009. This is why the US shouldered past you and invented everything important this past century.

[tommytalks77]

Not true... Americans are so full of themselves! I mean, most even think pizza is an american thing, lol. Talk about living in a cave.

The world doesn't care all that much about US, but since most americans don't even have a passport they are clueless about it. Research any subject, ANY,like computer technology, biology, chemistry and look for who invented what and you'll see. Sure, some things were invented in america but not all that many...Sorry to burst the bubble you live in,lol...

[Shadowstar204]

Pizza, motion picture camera, light bulb and electric power distribution, the automobile, and the famous nuclear bomb, ALL American inventions - Your welcome.

[tommytalks77]

lol, dumbass... pizza? ah, the american stupidity never ceases to amaze me... thank you

[Shadowstar204]

Yes Pizza is an American invention. Pizza was in fact invented in New York City (America) in 1916. Pretty amazing huh? Your welcome.

[tommytalks77]

like i said, the american stupidity never ceases to amaze me...

pizza has been around since the middle 900s, a good one thousand years before your delusion makes you believe...

fool...

[Shadowstar204]

What you are referring to is called placenta created by the Romans and Greeks, little more than bread and cheese, you would not identify this today as pizza. Italian immigrates in New York created what is commonly understood today as pizza and mainly pizza bakeries.

[Shadowstar204]

You may want to capitalize the a in american. Your poor grammar helps you sound stupid. Try to use the language we have all agreed on correctly - this would really help your argument. Once again, glad to entertain and inform. If I have any questions on what it must be like to be a dumbass, now Ill just ask you - the expert.

[Shadowstar204]

Keep in mind America also invented the nuclear and hydrogen bombs, if America wants to say it invented pizza, than America invented pizza.

[tommytalks77]

keep in mind that the world doesn't give a shit about america and americans.

dude, deflate your ego, you need that...

You guys have a terrible cousine (non-exixtent actually since there are no real "american" dishes), terrible cinema(hollywood blockbusters are not respected , didn't you know?), terrible literature (again, american "bestsellers" are only good to laugh at...), and no sense of fashion, in fact the rest of the wold only despises america...

wake up!!!

[Shadowstar204]

Its called the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe in it - George Carlin

Im glad to finally get a civil response from you, that said you are correct about the pizza, but because it was you who were condescending, obnoxious, repugnant, insulting, and tactless - I decided to argue with you anyway - just to piss you off, hopefully now we can begin to have a intelligent discussion.

[Shadowstar204]

I admit also that I am narcissistic, keep in mind that is very easy in a state and country where stupid people are the majority and lowering the standard of education is the response. Hell, America doesnt even give a shit about its self or its people!

America is the modern day Roman Empire, true we have no culture actually of our own (because we successfully committed mass genocide on all the real natives 200 years ago) - now we are a blend of everything.

[Shadowstar204]

People all over the world are starving to death, and we are being killed by eating too much. And I agree with you our sense of fashion is in need of a help, and a large portion of our policies and laws are full of uptight shit. However we do have good cinema,- The Matrix (not the sequels) for example, Britain and Japan love our movies and shows. Taste in art, music, cinema, and literature is ultimately relative.

[Shadowstar204]

The rest of the world didnt complain when we saved their asses from the Nazis and Japanese. The world despises America today because we are at our peak and they are jealous, in 50 years China will have the throne, and more power to them. But today no one is fucking with us.

[Shadowstar204]

And about our cinema, Titanic, The Lord of the Rings, Pirates of the Caribbean, The Dark Knight, Harry Potter, Star Wars, Jurassic Park. If they are not respected why did the Worldwide Box Office declare them grossing billions of dollars worldwide? Im pretty sure that they were not done by Canada.

[Robstailey]

umm americans invented pizza everyone knows that. occasionally we throw you guys a bone though and name out awesome foods after you; french toast, french fries, mexican food, etc.

[tommytalks77]

like i said, the american stupidity never ceases to amaze me...

lol, you are one of the dumbest I've seen around, thanks for putting a smile on my face so early in the morning.

Now, go back to eating fat junk food and being brainwashed by fox news... ata-boy...

[Robstailey]

and you can go back to living in a nation that's well past it's prime.

oh and i would never watch fox. even if i did have a tv.

[tommytalks77]

and what nation would that be? well past it's prime, you mean like the US?

are you really that dumb to believe pizza is an american food? and mexican food too? and french fries?

or are you just trolling? because I can't imagine even an average US moron like yourself can actually be that dumb...

[Robstailey]

i mean any european nation. do any of you guys even have a space program? ha!

[tommytalks77]

where did you get I am from europe?

do you have a space program? Didn't mr. Obama just cancel this week nasa's plan to go back to the moon because of the record deficit US has it right now and because the incompetent american scientists realized that they could not do it by 2020 as they promised but only by 2030, and that wasn't even a certainty?lol, you are funny!

BTW, europe does have a much more efficient space program than US ever dreamed of...

Again, thanks for the smile!

[Robstailey]

trust me, youre european

the reason we haven't been back to the moon since 72 or whatever is because of what they found up there.

and whats this about europe's 'efficient' space program? is it 'efficient' enough to put a man on the moon? because we went ahead and did that 40 years ago.

[tommytalks77]

"trust me, you are european"?!? do I need you to know where I come from?

You are really embarrassing, aren't you? You can't let it go, you have nothing else to say but you had to say the last word didn't ya?

I've encountered some big-headed losers here but you are on a league of your own...

[Robstailey]

hide it all you want, but theres no denying the fact that youre a european.

a cheese munching french fag? a tea sucking, shin grabbin brit? maybe one of those dirty andorans??

oh by the way, youre welcome.

[Ray4Life1]

@tommytalks77

hahaha. only the seriously dumb fall for trolls, lol @ you implying you're any more intelligent than the average person anywhere.

[Neanderthalcouzin]

lol, national dogma is irrelevant.

[shancarballo]

ya I'm not sure who these guys are in the interview but I don't think they read "The Singularity is Near". Kurzweil does NOT predict human level AI in 2010, but rather closer to the 2030s

[couga8888]

Yes and the singularity for 2045

[polkijm]

Secondly, I too would prefer to live indefinitely, and I fully intend to try just like Kurzweil (lucky for me, I'm younger than him too). Spiritual values beyond my own mortality are still FAR more important than that. Spiritual/moral values trump the value of my own life. Clear?

Does that mean I shouldn't try to eat well, exercise, get all my vitamins etc?

[polkijm]

"There are a lot of people who are quite skeptical of his ideas."

Same with Darwin. Just saying that statement has NO bearing on whether he's right; Not saying he's like Darwin in any other way. Maybe, I dunno.

WHO is skeptical, and WHY?

[ipv4]

These guys are so misinformed it makes me think that they never read one of his books.

[ipv4]

The guy is an idiot. He did not say that the computer would be like the human brain. He said that their will be a super computer that will have the calculation power of the human brain which according to the latest super computer has been achieved.

[xXAkridXx]

He talks about Super Intelligence you noob.

[ipv4]

Ray never said that that their will be super intelligence by 2009. You sir are the noob.

[xXAkridXx]

Nobody said anything about 2009?

However, I believe I have misread your initial comment, you were not calling Kurzweil an idiot?

My mistake.

[funkalunatic]

Future predictions are like batting averages. Even the best aren't gonna hit on more than half of them.

[Robikus]

We do have devices that can shoot images to your retina but they haven't been popularized or mass produced. Maybe in another couple of years.

[gucker07]

Yes, I have been wondering about this for quite some time. There is not a lot of information about retinal projection on the web but Kurzweil keeps on talking about it. It sounds really good but it seems to be a long way off.

[TsarNick77]

it's true... i'm a big fan of kurzweil, but i recently read his 1999 predictions for 2009 and they were way, way off

[gucker07]

Slightly off would be correct. He was right on some important things like Moore's Law holding up. He also correctly predict the speed of supercomputers for the 2011/2012 timeframe. Google 'IBM Sequoia'.

[TsarNick77]

I guess Moore's Law is the most important one. It's almost impossible to predict how societies will implement technologies & that's where I think his predictions go awry. As long as computation continues to grow we'll see a singularity. I don't think computation power doubles every 12 months though, more like 2 years.