Clearing up on Market confusion - Part 1

[goldstep999]

Dr. Berninger, thank you for the vid!

[entelechi]

Great vid. Very informative.

[rapidachris]

Hi I never received the link to the bag video after donating!!!

can you help?

[Norwegian73]

Inflation combined with economic stagnation is called stagflation. However, a combination of deflation and "tax- inflation" is a new one. Such a development will be in contradiction with normal economic responce of economic stagnation as nations msotly tend to reduce taxes to stimilous economic growth. But the massive debt might trigger such a development. Wonder how that would effect the US and China relationship and the US role as a superpower.

[OmarThePug]

jberni1's bag of tricks.

[jberni1]

Yes, I try and learn how to effectively use Youtube and Web 2.0...still learning

[Nicolai188]

FAKE!

[Norwegian73]

Johnny- you are right. Its copied from L. Rouche`s TC- modell

[Norwegian73]

test

[SsiberianTigerss]

This is a copy of other videos on youtube.

The technique some use is:

1. scare people.

2. make money on their fears.

[jberni1]

MMmm Thats an interesting point of view!

I especially turn the Video perception not to generate fears, and I am not "making money" on it.

[freedomfighterone]

What's happening with the German economy, as far as this economic crisis is concerned? What do you see happening in Germany over the next five years?

[jberni1]

We will have dramatic HYPERDEFLATION in 2010, while necessities prices and taxes will explode and cause INFLATION at the same time...

[cowboycarl04]

What always sticks with me: there will always be more debt owed than money in circulation.  We must hence borrow more money to pay off debts and live, which means the new money created is still less than the debt we owe. The process continues until the currency is worthless when the debt owed is simply so much that the country either defaults or has to start the printing presses to pay off the debts.

[jberni1]

There is a well known german economist who calls this "Debitismus"

[DavidAKZ]

more gov debt and spending = increase in gdp

[TimTrimT]

Whats in the bag? I can't find any links to that one.. :(

And by the way thanks for your videos!

[nueue]

sehr interessant, wäre schön diesen Vortrag auch in Deutsch zu hören....

[jberni1]

Yes, I have to discuss this in the next video...

[Bronzedraken]

I allready have my own bag but it would be very interresting to relate them. I looking foreward to it

[christo930]

Are you still calling for an October surprise (stock market crash)? I don't want to see it happen, but I think it's the only thing that is going to wake the public up.

[jberni1]

I believe Gvt needs a "Small crisis" to decide on new stimulus plans, no?

[taineasy]

I think geithner, bernanke, obama and paulson were hungover and missed this class at Harvard.

[taineasy]

Both Government and Company pension plans will begin to fail leaving a lot of good folks in deep trouble. Pension plan dumping is rolling across the US like a freight train. If your house is worthless (negative equity), your savings have collapsed (market and dollar crash) and you have little or no pension..............

[JiveDadson]

GDP does not measure productivity. It is defined as spending plus exports minus imports. That spending includes government spending, which is very unproductive.

[LastReplaySC]

use shadow stats (dot) com

[1989kirby]

who did you want to win the german election?

[LastReplaySC]

irrelevant, thats like asking does the muppet-show have any real relevance to factual wealth .....

answere: only if you buy a ticket and support the shows caschflow....

[suzettespencer]

Friendliest, most polite economist giving awful news. Kinda ironic but very informative.

[JohnnyGGN]

Thats LaRouche`s model of the Triple Curve.

[ShillBasher]

Nice long video. Many thanks for highlighting the current confusion. I must admit to still being in the dark as to weather or not to sell my house and SOME of my PM's, but I do understand that at some point these created debts must be met head on. We cannot indeffinately keep on trying to stop the bubble from bursting. It ultimately must burst and therefore, regardless of any actions, will BURST. But knowing this HAS held me back from profiting from the mass denial propogated by the media.

[bubonick23]

You're really one of my favorite people to listen to on youtube when it comes to the modern finance

[apocryphal1206]

I also believe in larouche triple curve.. But how could inflation and deflation coexist? Can they ??I am not an economist but are there points in history where inflation and deflation coexisted?

[AleXGT7]

I think gold is in the bag.

[Teller3448]

Not ALL money is created as debt.

Lots of companies and individuals have no debt at all.

[grossleinbach]

however they have very often savings in fiat currency. States can debase those currencies and this way let those people without debt pay for the debt of others.

[whippoorwillss]

In the bag...food, a gun, flashlight socks knife lighter water bottle stuff like that?

[TriOptimumCorp]

A Gun?

You wish, but you forget he lives in Germany. They have almost no gun rights much like the rest of Europe, and the world. They were even going to illegalize paintball, and airsoft guns.

Be glad to have 2ns amendment rights, and dont take it for granted!!

[jberni1]

I owe one

[patriotsundergod]

nice Full Windsor

[loopfreestyler]

nice vids, I do not understand how the debt could collapse. According to your video it can collapse only if the productivity increases?

[Mongodelight]

2 words: Buy silver

[justjacqueline2004]

Do you think that the Fed will swap their "legacy loans"for money in the Mutual Funds,rather than ask the banks for the money they have been lent,which was stashed in the stock market?Thanks again for your insight.

[jeson86]

Thanks for the info, professor...

[fal2grace]

I love the Jimi Hendrix analogy:) Thank you so much for this analysis.

[fal2grace]

watch?v=BCwCBh0z3Hs

[Spurgeon123]

Financial sectors exist only in a Democractic Capitalist Economy, but those countries will no longer exist in the NWO United Nations. All property and profit as well as humans belong to the state

[Spurgeon123]

The powers that be are no longer worried about the financial sectors because they're no longer worried about population employment and their pursuit of happiness. We have entered in the NWO where the police state and the enviroment are the focus and not financial growth or GDP. Rationing, work camps, poverty and civil unrest will be the new norm. Men have deevolved into their final state of depravity and moral absolutes no longer exist

[jetztisfeierabend]

A Bug out Bag :-)

[hhoprofessor]

Whats in the backpack?

Good German Beer, Snaps maybe

Parts to build a small BMW car LOL

Good vid

[Steenville]

I agree- the crisis will come sooner rather than later. I saw the Marc Faber interview on Bloomberg and the journalists (Matt Miller and Carol Massar) were stunned at his predictions- but this whole situation could turn out even worse than Faber thinks. I don´t think the entire US financial system collapsing during the Great Depression- that has happened now. Celente is right; we are headed for the Greatest Depression unless we take back the power from the criminal bankers.

[dojufitz]

In the bag....?

whiskey, cigars and an old playboy magazine....lol.

[halfasheep]

Being in Europe, you have better exposure to people who have experienced crisis.

It's not something I am at all familiar with.

It's not part of the Aust/NZ psyche.

[modelmark]

I wonder about the deflationary argument:'the govt can not force the companies to eat the debt'. If the gvt gives 4500$ to people to buy a new car (cash for clunkers), they calculated this as price deflation (new cars 'went down' in price 4500$). Why would they do this if they fear deflation?

If the gvt nationalizes companies like Fanny and Freddy and guarantees their debt, they keep paying the bond holders, while the mortgage holders fail. Does that bypass the fore mentioned inability argument?

[jberni1]

Actually if gvt provides money, then this causes Inflation (or negative deflation) as the car sellers know that the price is discounted. They do not need to lower the price beyond the governmental support.

[bigskywyoming]

Great video as always!

[Nosheepfull]

i am waiting for the october halloween suprise..lol

[hugolp]

You are right in the whole money/debt/loans (as allways), but it doesnt need to be like that. We live in a system like you described, but there are ways to have a better and more productive monetary system, not bassed on debt or even fiat money. The problem is that banks and politicians benefit from fiat money, so they dont want to change it.

[Eraser7622]

always a good watch.. another good vid. It's a shame that for you to be right, which I believe you are, that so many must be suffering. We are truly at a moment just before history is made and it is very intriguing to see how it all plays out.

Best.

[GlobVetus]

5 stars..

Thank You.

[NibiruMagick2012]

thank you

[elbuggo]

Thanks. Wish I could rate more than ones.

[econewpower]

Great information!

[EvilUSAandthe911Lie]

Assume with me for a second that none of this is by chance; that everything that has happened and will happen is being carefully controlled regardless of how it may be made to appear to us, with the ultimate goal being to introduce a worldwide currency, using this carefully orchestrated worldwide economic collapse as a justification.

If we assume this scenario, which future unfolding would most benefit a small handful of people orchestrating the crisis - inflation or deflation?

[cowboycarl04]

inflation hands down. Inflation will ruin savings.

Deflation actually helps those that are debt free and live within their means.

But both could benefit the people if it's extreme in both directions.

[jberni1]

But Deflation is bad for gvts tax income and it causes severe poverty

[PontiffMystic]

Inflation has been happening for quite a while. Money supply has increased, and this correlates with the falling value of the dollar since 2001. Deficit spending, and cheap money. Bank reserves have ballooned enormously though Bernanke claims he can control inflation with the tools he has. Deflation in "prices" is the consequence of unsustainable credit expansion that have exposed malinvestments. Inflation doesn't correct a economy, can only make it worse. It will be a inflationary depression.

[EvilUSAandthe911Lie]

I think this will be the final result. Purposely caused Weimar-type inflation as a pretext to cutting the dollar loose as the world's reserve currency because of this manufactured crisis

However, I think this will come only after the derivatives bubble collapses and we have one more tremendous bout of deflation. They will then print a few hundred trillion dollars to try and salvage things, but hyperinflation will take charge.

[TonyUnplugged]

Bag full of beer for Octoberfest !!!

[stellaconcepts]

very larouche - which is good - his info needs to get out more

[maxinatlanta]

thank you

[kidbilly1970]

Good info.  Thanks! Very professional.

[nmreich]

Is LaRouche the same as Austrian economics? I read mises. org regularly.

[elbuggo]

LaRouche is a Statist - Government is supposed to help us.

[DavidAKZ]

not Austrian then ?

[nmreich]

Damn. Because LaRouche's triple curve video is very enlightening. Check THIS out!:

watch?v=sgZ7djZyqxU

[nmreich]

Is that LaRouche's Triple Curve of hyperinflation you are explaining?

Question: When you draw the arrow on GDP, you draw it going up towards the baseline - does that mean that GDP grows since it is rising?

What's in the bag? My guess is: Toilet paper, cigarettes, food, water purification tablets... silver coins for bartering... just guessing...

[bdc03]

Dr. , again thanks for taking your time out to upload these good videos.

[galikazoid]

thanks for the videos

[SolitonPL]

The bag is full of CIGARETTES and a few bottles of Jagermeister or Johnny Walker ! The ultimate barter trade exchange currency during real crisis ;).

[psbyowner]

50-50... perhaps thats why its not going anywhere?

[magichandpuppet]

I'll tell you what's in my bag if you tell me what is in yours :)

[4rcane]

I hate it when people bring out a black box and ask people to guess whats in it :)

[SolitonPL]

Yeah this one of you presentations jberni1 was really very informative and insightful.

[realrasher]

Thank you! Very informative, even more so than usual. I'll be donating soon.

[143DREWID]

I will donate as a thank you. Vids appreciated.

I already have my backpack + gear ready.

In the past, those with mobility were the ones who survived what approaches now - that's my guess.

[jonah70757]

laRouche has been talking about the divergence between Debt and GDP, The continued monetary creation to bail out the financial system will continue to drive the real economy down until there is a complete breaking point. The system either has to go Bankrupt and deflate or we are looking at a Hyperinflationary Depression.

[nmreich]

The other alternative is if this new world order can convince the world's saving countries to part with their savings and bail out the west on the notion that the west is "too big to fail". In that case we can have a whole world of 6 billion people and ZERO production..... what a lovely thought.

Seriously though, the G20, the UN and the IMF is not about to let China go unpunished for saving it's money. No good deed goes unpunished. That's why emerging market countries aren't reprsented fairly.

[DavidAKZ]

yes but which is it ?!?!

[jonah70757]

To your question which is it? It will be determined by Politics of the Global Powers that be. So this inflation deflation argument is realy only academic isn't it?

The way that best suits the objectives and maximizes the goals will be the method employed. I am inclined to believe Hyperinflation Depression will best suit their needs.

[manzil3k]

i bed there is food in the bag :D

[winbri5]

Excellent! Danke!

[wildpett]

25% - 30 % dip in gold and silver ? I think it is on the verge of a breakout

[nmreich]

Here's how I understand it:

If deflation happens first: Stock market crashes, people rush into treasuries, dollar skyrockets in value, then you can experience a "gold dip". (That's what happened in fall of '08). If this happens, then severe inflation will rapidly take place since people will buy assets with their strong dollars and you get an increase in money velocity. Gold would suddenly skyrocket.

Or: Inflation could continue and gold would steadily rise and rise.

[wildpett]

This is what happened in 08, and the reason, as jbernie says, is that the price is set in the leveraged paper markets. The dollar rallied because the world was massively short dollars. While we may get a repeat of 08, we could just as well get a situation where people panic into gold and silver and the paper market gets put under severe stress or breaks down. I just think there is a surprise, and that past scenarios will not repeat exactly in the same manner.

[DavidAKZ]

But aren't the only people rushing into treasuries the US Federal Reserve ? So unless you are an institutional investor bound by the rules of your fund, why would anyone buy these as demonstrated by the continuing fall in USD value (against AUD eg). My hunch is GDP will be continue to be sucked down into the black hole of toxic asset debt (x10 world GDP) regardless of money printing practice = deflation of (paper backed)assets including gold.

[whiskerchild]

I have to give you money to find out what's in the bag?

[Cneumann22]

Excellent video. I will definitely make a donation - looking forward to learning more. You answered a lot of my questions today. I also believe we only have 1-3 more years before things get really bad. Keep the videos coming!

[yugster78]

More like 6 months if were lucky!!

[MegaUSpatriot]

The GDP curve is wrong because it is not always falling. Google triple curve function for the correct physical economy

[jailarson]

Debt as money must end. It is an inherently flawed system mainly due to the application of interest.

[Repomex01]

you live in Espana, Grandma Merkel cannot affect you.

[oldmrelics]

Thanks for the info! You always help to make a complex issue more understandable. Keep posting, keep preparing, and stack 'em deep!