It is now March 8th, 2011. Your reasoning is sound from my prospective. I love your attitude toward time prediction. It seems we are close to a big crash. The market is high and I believe it's time to sell and get into as much metal as your heart will allow. All paper is very risky. I'd rather take a loss with the metal manipulations than paper. When I say metal, I am talking physical delivery. I actually prefer Silver over Gold. Silver is the buy of a life time. It's way under valued.
I say May 6 flash crash was no accident. Since then, volumes have dwindeled dramatically. S&P P/E near 22 is high. When we have had big moves in last 6 months, they have been to the down side, meaning big money is not getting into stocks. Never in history have insiders been such big sellers. I agree corp/national debts have to be resolved over next couple years. Mr Market acts irrationally says Buffet so it can do it on the up side. I have no idea where it's headed, down most likely.
I don't understand why people say that someone's thoughts and analysis is stupid. It would be more productive if people just countered with their own reasoning and evidence. Thanks for the info Paul! Can you analyze the dollar index?
The decline of the stock market may be a great thing! I will scoop up Blue Chip company stocks for very cheap. Some companies are recession/depression proof (like J&J, major banks, etc.).
I think the whole fear-mongering about an imminent collapse is just propaganda, to precipitate a market decline. The average American will sell his stocks, and the wealthiest will buy them. When the markets recover, the wealthiest will be moreso.
also, keep in mind the federal reserves' boiler room may continue prop up markets coupled with skewed "better than expected" propaganda, until primary elections pass.
one thing i'll say is that it seems the major indexes are tipping. any move up has been followed by pullbacks with little to no recover. also, price action to the upside on individual stocks has flattened and some are reversing.
what is the ratios for accuracy of technical analysis again? 60/40?
people that dont want to accept this and want to be much more positive, at least take this as a warning sign and get ready for great depression number two by first buying silver right away (or gold) then if it gets worse by a house away from bigger cities and protect your familys
I am not trying to convince you. I don't care if you believe me or not - possibly you are an adult and capable of making your own judgements decisions - maybe you should take your smart comments elsewhere.
I was intently listening until i heard 100-250 on the SPX.
You say it yourself, the gov will step in and intervene. Why you think they will intervene yet see no results (aka your SPX @ 100 thesis) is beyond me.
Please dont disregard this as an 'im a bull!' statement as im definitely not, but your scenario is even more bearish than what im used to over @ ZH.
I am not a bull or a bear - I couldn't care less about bullish or bearish argument, not interested. This is the highest mathematical probability of several alternatives, once a low is made the expectation is for a multi-decade rally where the S&P goes well above 2000, but the formation now indicates lower before higher.
Well said. I don't know if I buy the gold premise. In GD1 paper money at least in the US maintained its value fairly well. Paper money wasn't worthless, it was just near impossible to get your hands on it via wealth destruction/deflation.
The value of USD will depend on how the US gov reacts to the propped up markets finally keeling over. Keep an eye on the news, China and Japan don't want to play nice anymore for US debt. Two options then: Print(or electronic equivalent), or let it burn.
Options gambling is a good place to be completely ruined.
I know several people who have traded options full time to get rich. Of those, 2 lost everything and another committed suicide leaving a wife and 3 young children.
Options trading is a form of gambling.
Time cannot reasonably forecast, only price can be forecast - anyone who tells you differently is dead wrong, inexperienced or lying.
@pauljthomason I don't trade options for the same reason. I actually don't trade anything, nor own anything besides my Ford F-150. I made the post slightly in jest. I actually like your reasoning and you've peaked my interest. I guess I picked up on your confidence in the market crashing. Confidence in anything these days is suspect to me b/c there's too many variables like what the Fed will do. If they print and print the S&P is more likely to hit 5000 than crash. Too much is unknown is all.
There are no guarantees if this crash does happen, which I think it will. Just like the last depression, the Government may come in a force people to sell their gold for worthless dollars. They'll probably say something like "it's for the public good." So I don't think that even GOLD will be a guarantee.
Great video. I have been watching these trends for a while and bought GLD three years ago. I also bought physical gold. I agree with you completely. It's great that you speak the truth so those who are open can hear it and draw their own conclusions. But you could be saving some people's lives by putting it out there.
Nice vid, if it goes down a lot of money is to be made in shorting, if it goes up money is still to be made. The only loser will be the average American
Thank you for the information. Would you say that although you feel it's might be a couple of years before the "big crash" - do you think anything will happen before then, i.e. riots, shortages, etc...
Awsome! the analysis is very clear, very easy to understand. Thanks a lot!
BTW, You suggest Gold. Absolutely! Yet, many experts also suggest Silver because they say the value of Silver will appreciate a lot more once crash happens. What's your take?
I don't listen to stock tips from the British.
NYSEGOP 1 month ago
It is now March 8th, 2011. Your reasoning is sound from my prospective. I love your attitude toward time prediction. It seems we are close to a big crash. The market is high and I believe it's time to sell and get into as much metal as your heart will allow. All paper is very risky. I'd rather take a loss with the metal manipulations than paper. When I say metal, I am talking physical delivery. I actually prefer Silver over Gold. Silver is the buy of a life time. It's way under valued.
bebengry 1 year ago
I say May 6 flash crash was no accident. Since then, volumes have dwindeled dramatically. S&P P/E near 22 is high. When we have had big moves in last 6 months, they have been to the down side, meaning big money is not getting into stocks. Never in history have insiders been such big sellers. I agree corp/national debts have to be resolved over next couple years. Mr Market acts irrationally says Buffet so it can do it on the up side. I have no idea where it's headed, down most likely.
SilverDude7890 1 year ago
I don't understand why people say that someone's thoughts and analysis is stupid. It would be more productive if people just countered with their own reasoning and evidence. Thanks for the info Paul! Can you analyze the dollar index?
nocsm1 1 year ago
The decline of the stock market may be a great thing! I will scoop up Blue Chip company stocks for very cheap. Some companies are recession/depression proof (like J&J, major banks, etc.).
I think the whole fear-mongering about an imminent collapse is just propaganda, to precipitate a market decline. The average American will sell his stocks, and the wealthiest will buy them. When the markets recover, the wealthiest will be moreso.
Phish78 1 year ago
also, keep in mind the federal reserves' boiler room may continue prop up markets coupled with skewed "better than expected" propaganda, until primary elections pass.
remember, politics is about winning.
capgains 1 year ago
one thing i'll say is that it seems the major indexes are tipping. any move up has been followed by pullbacks with little to no recover. also, price action to the upside on individual stocks has flattened and some are reversing.
what is the ratios for accuracy of technical analysis again? 60/40?
capgains 1 year ago
people that dont want to accept this and want to be much more positive, at least take this as a warning sign and get ready for great depression number two by first buying silver right away (or gold) then if it gets worse by a house away from bigger cities and protect your familys
TylerThrashPeace 1 year ago
I am not trying to convince you. I don't care if you believe me or not - possibly you are an adult and capable of making your own judgements decisions - maybe you should take your smart comments elsewhere.
pauljthomason 1 year ago
I was intently listening until i heard 100-250 on the SPX.
You say it yourself, the gov will step in and intervene. Why you think they will intervene yet see no results (aka your SPX @ 100 thesis) is beyond me.
Please dont disregard this as an 'im a bull!' statement as im definitely not, but your scenario is even more bearish than what im used to over @ ZH.
gdnimrod 1 year ago
I am not a bull or a bear - I couldn't care less about bullish or bearish argument, not interested. This is the highest mathematical probability of several alternatives, once a low is made the expectation is for a multi-decade rally where the S&P goes well above 2000, but the formation now indicates lower before higher.
Good luck.
pauljthomason 1 year ago
Well said. I don't know if I buy the gold premise. In GD1 paper money at least in the US maintained its value fairly well. Paper money wasn't worthless, it was just near impossible to get your hands on it via wealth destruction/deflation.
The value of USD will depend on how the US gov reacts to the propped up markets finally keeling over. Keep an eye on the news, China and Japan don't want to play nice anymore for US debt. Two options then: Print(or electronic equivalent), or let it burn.
lacker101 1 year ago
Yes I've read about this
pauljthomason 1 year ago
Show me the home equity loan you just took out and put into S&P Puts. Then I might believe you.
darkmath100 1 year ago
Options gambling is a good place to be completely ruined.
I know several people who have traded options full time to get rich. Of those, 2 lost everything and another committed suicide leaving a wife and 3 young children.
Options trading is a form of gambling.
Time cannot reasonably forecast, only price can be forecast - anyone who tells you differently is dead wrong, inexperienced or lying.
pauljthomason 1 year ago
@pauljthomason I don't trade options for the same reason. I actually don't trade anything, nor own anything besides my Ford F-150. I made the post slightly in jest. I actually like your reasoning and you've peaked my interest. I guess I picked up on your confidence in the market crashing. Confidence in anything these days is suspect to me b/c there's too many variables like what the Fed will do. If they print and print the S&P is more likely to hit 5000 than crash. Too much is unknown is all.
darkmath100 1 year ago
@pauljthomason Are you aware of the Fed's POMO activity. It's quite substantial. They have the ability to thoroughly ramp the stock market:
Check out ZeroHedge article on Monday regarding James Bullard.
Yeah, the Fed is that crazy. They have a printing press and they will use it.
darkmath100 1 year ago
5:45 - The ultimate bottom, not J-Lo's....hahaha
invasive 1 year ago
Comment removed
jkjacksonhole 1 year ago
You cannot liquidate gld for a loaf of bread in that scenario. bullets are more valuable.
jkjacksonhole 1 year ago
There are no guarantees if this crash does happen, which I think it will. Just like the last depression, the Government may come in a force people to sell their gold for worthless dollars. They'll probably say something like "it's for the public good." So I don't think that even GOLD will be a guarantee.
1236612 1 year ago
what's your track record for succesful predictions
korictixor 1 year ago 2
There are a few historical videos on this channel. Start at the beginning of the videos and draw your own conclusions. Best regards
pauljthomason 1 year ago
Great video. I have been watching these trends for a while and bought GLD three years ago. I also bought physical gold. I agree with you completely. It's great that you speak the truth so those who are open can hear it and draw their own conclusions. But you could be saving some people's lives by putting it out there.
S1RUS81 1 year ago
Nice vid, if it goes down a lot of money is to be made in shorting, if it goes up money is still to be made. The only loser will be the average American
Fo0dman 1 year ago
Thank you for the information. Would you say that although you feel it's might be a couple of years before the "big crash" - do you think anything will happen before then, i.e. riots, shortages, etc...
smartpeeple 1 year ago
Time cannot be forecast only price. Social consequences follow price.
Forecasting on a time basis is impossible.
pauljthomason 1 year ago
Awsome! the analysis is very clear, very easy to understand. Thanks a lot!
BTW, You suggest Gold. Absolutely! Yet, many experts also suggest Silver because they say the value of Silver will appreciate a lot more once crash happens. What's your take?
janviergalle 1 year ago
@janviergalle
Slvr will grow close to a 50-1 ratio, extrapolate that.
Easier to buy stuff w/silver, than Gold.
Any fool letting this Gangsta Goobermint confiscate real wealth is deserving of the serfdom you get.
Silver, while a great tool, is a poor metal for mobility......weight is unreal.
I suggest 50oz Slvr/ 1oz Gold. To a 1000ozs.(Slvr)
2Zaptos 1 year ago