Nassim Nicholas Taleb - What is a "Black Swan?"

[gsvkck]

@Inoitspointless hahahhahahaha oh man, you made my day, cheeers!

[PtAltmVansanTarr]

Is this guy better than the typical pop author when it comes to the economy? I liked his book,good writer,I'm always skeptical of these popular paperback intellectuals and their simplified models of the world.

[guitargodess101]

Am I the only one who was sent by MLIA?

[Pfsif]

A shot a W shows how dumb this guy is because W and Obama are the same exact person. Besides W couldn't be too stupid, he rob the USA of 2 trillion dollars.

[de0den]

This guy lost me as soon as he made his "George Bush" comment. Does he really think that impresses people? Does he think that making that snide, sneering comment enhances his standing? When I hear so-called "intellects" make comments like that I realize this class of person can be just as small-minded, just as provincial as the people they look down on A person can be an "intellect" and stupid simultaneously.

[BlackLoveSwan]

I rly wonder what the limits are to a Black Swan, was the Black Death a black swan?, i would assume so, am gona get the book and hope to get more insight on this. where lay the boundries, how big does the impact have to be. And I will definatly assume, that Japan atm, the tsunami etc, is a black swan.

[Pingvinmus]

He sounds out of breath. It makes me out of breath listening to him...

[ramonalejandrosuare]

His assertion that history gives us the "illusion" of "predictability" is a complete misrepresentation of the discipline to make his Black Swan argument more relevant. Nowadays very few serious historians would say that their scholarship is intended for predicting the future. At its best, history greatest contribution is in its illumination of the present. 

[Contextcatcher]

Will, inspired by psychedelics, the prediction of Terence McKenna be a Black Swan? We know it at Dec. 21-2012. As intelligent person TM was an exceptional man already.

(page 80) The scandal of prediction:

"For the ancients, forecasting historical events was an insult to the God(s); for me, it is an insult to man - that is, for some to science".

(From Taleb's great new book: "The bed of procrustus. Philosophical and practical aphorisms").

[shantih433]

@Contextcatcher Are you asking if, were the Timewave Zero event to occur, would it still be a black swan since TM actually predicted it? I think the idea is that a black swan event is difficult to predict, but not impossible.

I myself am a huge TM fan, though I'm pretty skeptical about his Timewave ideas. My guess is that, if anything interesting happens in 2012, it will be the result of self-fulfilling prophecies. So many people expect something to happen that they'll MAKE it happen.

[Contextcatcher]

@shantih433 When I wrote this comment I saw the contradiction. But when TM is right his megalomanic forecast is the ultimate "meta black swan' or "anti black swan" in one. No eloquent thinker takes TM's prediction seriously. Even TM self is, in some speeches, ironical about it. His imaginative assumptions are great to listen to. But many people are deceived by his way of playing with intellectual concepts. He is as attractor an irresponsible child: admirers can make his words self-fulfilling...

[shantih433]

@Contextcatcher I like him as a philosopher and psychonaut. I think he's incredibly inspiring when talking about the human condition. He just loses me when he talks about aliens and 2012. I'm still not sure if he was just using it as a thought experiment (like Robert Anton Wilson with conspiracy theories) or if he was actually serious. Interesting stuff anyway.

[Contextcatcher]

@shantih433 I prefer the sober way of thinking like Taleb. McKenna was an attractive speecher. Taleb is not so outspoken more precise. Maybe for most of the (young) people boring. But his knowing as philosopher is more substantial and reliable. Comparing with sceptic Taleb is 'poet' McKenna a wild one. Yes, Terence was a real child of the sixties. Immigrant Taleb is a bright outsider.

"Regular minds find simularities in stories (and situations) finer detect differences" Aphorisms page 52

[flexibartrampolin]

The more unexpected an event is the more impact it carries with it because the lesser people can accpmodate with it in advance. Just therefore the most momentuous events and processes are so called black swans. Such s swan is therefore only black in cognition or perception. Therefore there is no reasonable theory of black swans.

[GenerationDarkness]

if a Real Zombie Apocalypse were to happen in real life, that would be considered a Black Swan because it is impossible to occur, Or is it?

[SeanneryConnery]

amazing writer and thinker.

horrible lecturer

[Shlovingit]

I really hope the movie with Natalie Portman has to do with this... It looks like a psychological thriller, so possibly. Does anyone know any other books that have to do with this theory? His most recent one isn't at my library.

[TranscendMedia]

It'd be a useful exercise to find a conventional/properly trained historian who dares to speak about the future. History is all about studying data ergo all about the past. Where have historians fed anyone the illusion that the future is predictable?

[nbmufc94]

so what is he trying to say ; that we should expect a world disaster, or expect a new wordwide invention. i just dont get what he is trying to say,

[dolunaydainsanolan]

Is Jeff Buckley a black swan then? :)

[TheAmericanApologist]

@mbartley2002 Good summary, I think you've got it. But, I wonder if you could expand on those last few sentences for me? How effectively can we plan for the unpredictable? If you could see it coming, then you could plan; but if you don't see it coming, you can't really plan for it. I would agree that there are some things we could do to mitigate the effects of a BS; such as tweaking the economy, but it seems if a BS cannot be seen coming, we're going to have a hard time planning on it arriving.

[dolunaydainsanolan]

maybe because of my english, but I need to tell you that I didn't understand the theory... so any phenomenon that occurs without being planned and affect majority is a black swan? this can't be this simple, right?

[TheAmericanApologist]

@dolunaydainsanolan You've just about got it. A Black Swan is not planned on, since it can't be seen coming. It is also an event of high impact, like world war one, or the internet; and in hindsight we act as if it wasn't unpredictable.

[EmmaJakn]

Do you need a trusted wife gettop5.info

[3festina]

This is a wonderful book.....very funny....

[carzzz21]

very interesting, im intrigued..

[michael85gizan]

Nice exerpt, i am sure it was a nnice lecture.

very intelligant lecturer

[michael85gizan]

Do you really judge Religions to be Black Swans, totally unpredictable, to what, to rise.

i like the black swan meaning though

[papertrailTIP]

@michael85gizan

Who's to say they aren't? I think you are just mad because this makes atheist look like a bunch of jackasses. Whether you are Religious or Agnostic, just remember even if people call you crazy or us scared fence leaners, Atheist are just irrational morons.

[qwerrik]

i'm reading he's book, "the black swan", very good :)

[gammabun]

ww1 and 9/11 and all past wars are not unpredicted or undirected events, they are all organised by big bankers

[3509trevor]

@gammabun why would big bankers organize 9/11 and risk not being able to close and possibly lose billions of dollars?? DON'T MAKE STUPID ACCUSATIONS YOU CAN'T SUPPORT WITH EVIDENCE!!!

[gammabun]

@3509trevor to get an excuse to go into irak and afghanistan, possibly iran one day

to pass the patriot act and other laws that give power over the constitution

countries that go into war go into debt toward international bankers

war is very profitable

theres a lot of info on the web, you should read about it, just watch loose change final cut and make up your own mind on 9/11

[ann03071874]

@gammabun You have no doubt watched Zeitgeist, which I may add is complete bollocks.

[gammabun]

@ann03071874 i wouldnt advise zeitgeist to anyone and yes i watched it as you did

were in 2010, 9/11 happened almost a decade ago and you still think 2 planes made three towers collapse

you probably think that Bush was democratically elected in 2000, that the recession is over and that Obama is a good guy ready to save the world

with idiots like you around, no wonder its hell on earth

[ann03071874]

@gammabun .....right....

[1tephania]

@gammabun

Zeitgeist is bullshit. The documentary is a laughing stock in any serious thinking circles.

[ann03071874]

@3509trevor I hate these truth movement idiots, oh look, I watched documentary, it must be true!

[papertrailTIP]

@ann03071874

Well we hate you "lets accept everything the mainstream media tells us" idiots. Oh wow George Bush said terrorist took down the twin towers! Bill O'Reily & Sean Hannity said it, too! It must be true because the government would never lie to us. You probably think Israelis aren't evil either, right?

[thecollective10]

@papertrailTIP What an incredulous comment.

[papertrailTIP]

@thecollective10

Which one and why?

[1tephania]

@papertrailTIP

Well... it is good to doubt what other people say, but you shouldn't make a religion out of your skepticism. Skepticism without self-reflection can be as fanatical as any ideology or beliefs. It seems like you don't like atheists too - well, I can tell you, the way quite a few atheists think resembles your way of thinking a lot as well; skepticism without rational thinking.

[papertrailTIP]

@1tephania

Interesting, Why? I didn't really say anything that would point of irrational skepticism.

[goody2bad2]

Was the was the Black Swan event the War, or was it the time of peace?

[HyperColours]

Nassim is a smart man but WW1 was not a Black Sawn event, it was planned and executed by Governments. 9/11 was not a Black Swan, again it was planned and executed by a Government or Shadow Government if you will.

[cloudi87]

@HyperColours And where is the proof of those elegations?

[tpo1956]

Not much of a video . . . though I loved the book.

Taleb, cut the smarmy insides on how much less smart GWB is than you (and your audience?).  And is a tie "restricting" blood supply less dumb than that turtle neck and tweed jacket faux professor look? Or are you joking on your own jokes?

At some point, the problem is if were all fools and suckers, then . . .

[IMD]

Interesting video! We live in a complex system that delivers extreme deviations. Current risk management and economic analyses methods fail us in such a system because of low predictability. What should we do in such an environment? At the IMD OWP 2010, Nassim Nicholas Taleb will present simple rules (lower leverage, less reliance on deficit spending, less mathematical risk management) for a black swan robust economic system.

[TheatreCritic]

nnt's black swan brings to mind karl popper's solution to the problem of induction..

[PheazPKing]

Actually using this to study for my economics exam.. just read fooled by randomness and cant wait to get hold of black swan :)

[beauzackosta]

electing Barack Obama President of the United States is a Black Swan event. The perception people have will fade years from now - and Obama's true past will show that his "fundamental transformation" plans should have been very predictable. Wait until B.O. assembles his private, civilian army that is just as well funded, armed and trained as our current military. After all - he promised to do just that in his election speeches. History has shown that those usually don't end well.

[shampoovta]

So Dubai Friday 2009 is a Black Swan Event.

[KulCulKan]

they set 4 black swans on a lake when princess diana was buried !!!

[bucksterx]

so any thing that happens that is unpredictable is a black swan? you could go as far to say every second of life is a black swan. every second creates tons of possibilities that you dont know what you are goin to do. do i pass that guy or just stay here. that was a huge bug that flew by. ect.

[absaid39]

No black swan is an event that is unpedictable and that has very important consequences

[TheTark]

My impression is that another criteria for a black swan is that it (a bird, an event) also has a significant effect on our social psyche or beliefs. I think our (current) beliefs in things that are not real (e.g., 1915 era "We are a civilized world.") is what prevents us from predicting black swans. In other words, it is what we know is true but isn't that bites us in the ass.

[TruthCracker]

I think he means complex systems are so chaotic that there are "hidden risks" that our simplified view does not show. When these risks, which are hidden from our models, manifest themselves this is a "black swan" event. Eg no one thought blacks swans existed for hundreds of years until they did, because evolution was more complex, extensive and chaotic than their simple models of life. Hence many finacial systems contain hidden risk. Outcome? Simplify finacial life, less debt.

[Prestigious9]

Well youre getting more into the Butterfly Effect, where one small tiny seemingly insignificant event can cause a chain of unpredicted reactions. The difference is that a Black Swan is an event that grows in unpredictable consequence directly related to that one event. For example: the impacts of some religions may have been completely unpredicted (crusades, inquisitions, jihads...) but are directly related to that religion and that religion continues to produce effects.

[Prestigious9]

The flap of a butterfly's wings can cause a tsunami halfway across the world but the deaths of hundreds of people become directly related to the tsunami, not the flap of the wings. I hope that helps differentiate.

[Oceanus57]

Actually a tsunami is a huge wave, more likely caused by undersea earthquakes than by winds. The butterfly effect analogy is not to illustrate that the simple flap of butterfly's wing might "cause" a storm elsewhere, but that the necessary preconditions for a storm are so intangible that the tiniest and most unmeasurable change in them might make the difference to whether a storm happens or not.

It's an analogy to help us understand chaotic systems, which is widely misunderstood.

[mavallarino]

@bucksterx Exactly. You must acccept the fact that nothing is predictable, we can generalise but never expect that the theory will always be valid. You could go as far as saying life in itself is a white fly. Tha Napoleon to WWI example is a perfect example of this idea... It's quite unfomfortable to accept but it does make you approach things differently.

[sysopkc]

Well with all due respect history has been pretty darn good so far at predicting quite a few human initiated problems and outcomes, it may not be infallible, but its pretty darn good on an appropriate timeline

[dr1hall]

Taleb "Black Swan" - Triani "Lecturing Birds" are beginning to open doors to the Classic, The King Has No Clothes syndrome. I expect others will more fully completing the dialogue, submitting simple/doable economics guides (models present false hope, mere confidence builders, not fact "statues" or "codes"), expect great ideas now to spring forth from the simple people.

Try A.D.201-2015 Rebuilding America.

[BirdieButter]

If you were the ONLY person to see a Black Swan coming, would that make you an even BLACKER Swan????? :P

[BirdieButter]

The unforeseeable.....and yet the fog clears in retrospect, becomes post-foreseeable.....I dig it.

I saw it coming after the fact. It was totally post-predictable! Huh? Duh!

The Thom Yorke song Black Swan is excellent, btw.

[banksy35]

I feel funny reading his book, maybe it's beacuse I'm on the verge of learning something new, I'm not sure yet.

[hesh2]

I think 9-11 is the most significant Black Swan to date?

[ChadHorney]

It's relevant to us now, but the ascent of Hitler/ Lenin/ Stalin/ Mao were also black swans, as was the great depression, as is the current credit crisis and global recession.

Going back even further in time, events such as the Black Death or the Little Ice Age which, when combined, killed up to half the European population, were Black Swan Events which would, even with today's technology, be difficult to predict and contain.

Care to predict the onset of the next Ice Age anyone?!

[timetraveler2006]

Not really.

The US drops Black Swans and eggs on people all over the world all the time...

now that information could be a black swan...or could be an african american swan ?

[thisgonabeegreat]

In finland swans are protected

[ChadHorney]

Nassim Taleb is entirely correct, and we are becoming extraordinarily arrogant about our abilities to foresee change and mitigate against it. There's a new and aggressive brand of humanism gaining credence in the west, and its central tenet is a brand of pseudo rationalism. It's very narrow and restrictive, and as intolerant of dissent as any fundamnental religion (which is effectively what it is).

[MarcusCMarcellus]

I read Taleb's Black Swan and was thoroughly unimpressed. His vision is one of chaos based on fractal geometry and the supposed randomness of events. The problem is his use of the word "we," the so-called collective consciousness of "history" or a people. The fact is that all the events he says were not predictable were in fact foreseen by a small number of people who were, as happens today, ignored. Exact predictions are impossible, but seeing consequences is possible. It's how we live.

[ChadHorney]

In November 2006 nobody was forecasting the rise of Barak Obama except his family...

[MarcusCMarcellus]

Not by name; not precisely. But living in the USA, anyone could see the advent of BHO was a long-time coming. The deconstruction of tradition, reason and morality set in long ago. Moral and cultural relativism would have some awful consequence, thus BHO. He is the culmination of a process, not some "black swan."

Talib is a fatalist. His very thesis is disproved in the act of asserting it: the world not rational, but here is the truth. The world is mysterious but not unintelligible.

[ChadHorney]

Really? very few people thought it possible. There's only 20mill blacks, and a pervading weak racism amongst non blacks.

Talib is not disproving his thesis - he doesn't claim to predict anything, he just asserts you cannot predict things. It's an important message in the face of an increasingly arrogant and vocal brand of empirical humanism. He's pointing out the unacknowledged role of luck in the ascent of man.

The most rational people on earth said the credit crunch shouldn't have happened.

[MarcusCMarcellus]

I'm not going any further than to say this: BHO was elected precisely b/c he is black (half-white). It was white guilt, goodwill and an ideology of anti-discrimination that elected him.

Secondly, many economists like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff and others "predicted" the depression, i.e. they extrapolated the consequences of easy money, artificially low rates and a gutted industrial base. No big deal.

I believe in chance, of course, but also in will and reason. At least we're civil

[ChadHorney]

We need to start realising the role of chance in the ascent of man. we have enjoyed huge luck. We've come from maybe 600 Homo Sapiens to 6Billion. Nothing is more levered than the relationship between population and economy size, and if the world were just a tiny bit different our economy vis a vis our population would not be possible.

[ChadHorney]

I am white, and I would say most White americans fall into two groups - a minority of strong racists, and a majority who don't want blacks to be harassed by the police or held back at work, but certainly wouldn't want their children dating a black person - weak racists. We've never even come CLOSE to a black president before (Rice and Powell never ran) and now we've got one, coincidentally when the US needs to present a different face to the world..it's a complete outlier...

[1mealperday]

1967 enlisted in us army ,am white german national. blacks and whites did form seperate groups, but the exposure to one another led also to friendships and a great tolerance for our differences. in time as we age, we recognize our commonalities and the fact that our bodies are nothing than the car to its driver

[ChadHorney]

Humans have been remarkably BAD at rationalising the world around them and creating systems to deal with it...the result has usually been ideologies such as communism, reason cults, eugenics, even nazism,and lately coporatism, consumerism and a kind of religious solipsism. Why are we so convinced empirical humanism will be any better than conventional religion, for example?

All Taleb does is present an intellectual argument for being critical, and..humble?

[ChadHorney]

Anyway - you're doing the classic thing taleb asserts humans do - look at events retriospetively and say they were predictable!!

If you had run a straw pole of pundits/ bloggers/ newspaper commentatorson the likelihood of a black president in 2005, I doubt you would have found a single taker.....

[amsgal]

thank you for posting!

[Veetina]

Very brilliant and true :how many predictions we expected to be different of what they turned out to be!

[texex82]

This short clip is designed to spur deeper thinking and what exactly? All I can tell is that in his mind, some things are not predictable, but in hindsight they WERE predictable (by our hubric disciplines), when they are actually NOT predictable at all. What? Is that not like saying, "it is so because I want it to be so"?

[GetMeThere1]

In reading his book(s) you see that the point is that so much thinking is DELUDED because that thinking is based on assuming that things don't change that much, and that things will keep on doing what they've been doing in the recent past. He points out the FACT that most of history is generated by UNPREDICTABLE events--this, despite the fact that so many people believe they have a HANDLE on things, when in fact, they don't.

[xdir]

If you follow the link on the side you can view the full video at fora tv.

[simplybornhuman]

so whenever you don't know something, use an absolutely ridiculous explanation which threatens all humanity and the future of civilization too.

[boston65boston65]

very interesting, I watch entire lecture, he even mention that he is too smart to vote for Ron Paul

[fatjohn1408]

why?

[maya011779]

where i can watch the entire lecture? thanks.

[TheCZMan]

Look up around 1.23 of the vid to get your answer.

[greenpinkyellow]

we don't deserve a genius like taleb. to be fooled by platonicity for generations proves we are stupid monkeys.

[TwilightAronXD]

Interesting theory. We read about this in philosophy class

[chelseared]

I liked almost all of it, until his personal position directed his belief. The reason the rich must pay for the problems of the poor, is because the rich can. That is the balancing of mother nature that he so beutifully defines. If you can walk without help, you can help those that cannot. Period. I think he knows this, but is feeling condemned for his profitability. A metaphor is a movie star, gives up his privacy and freedom for his ability.

[birkinghead]

When in doubt take a shot a dubya. No shot is too cheap

[evil221884]

he needs to learn public speaking skills.......moving his hands way too much....really distracting

[umpazump]

The guy is definitely brilliant. However, he seems to be very thin-skinned. He describes himself as a Levantine and he obviously resents the King of a faraway land, invading an Arab neighbor and killing the King and both of his sons. I just wish he could stick to the point without constant petty political whining.

[BestObamaVideos]

so maybe big foot does exist?

[rmeddy1]

Does anyone have this entire lecture? This guy is brilliant.

[AleksaBee]

@rmeddy1 ON FORATV in the link below the vid

[natedaug1]

@rmeddy1 Almost done with his book now.

[haldenver]

.....he is heading into dangerous "media" waters ; the ego is rising, and is there truly much to be said beyond Hume? Great Books but ..........he is now creating a new orthodoxy, of sorts...

[searles7]

Any time you take a shot at Bush, there is nothing cheap about it. At 12 billion dollars per month and 4,000+ brave but needlessly dead Americans and scores more innocent Iraguis, I'd say we all need to be taking shots at him.

[umpazump]

Why must he make cheap political shots to make a point?

[rmeddy1]

Generally left audience.

[umpazump]

He immediately takes an irrelevant cheap shot about George Bush.

[quagmire1807]

Because Dubya got involved in a country that was none of his business?