If there is too few houses to go around....the price goes up. At the same time there is pressure to build more houses. If so, the current houses that are valued at the current prices are under threat from new houses being built. So if you're an investor, I would sell up quick before a building boom comes.
Great video! A few people i know borrow so much now are paying their mortgages then live below their need,.now hanging on to their jobs that they hate. Thank you for your video, at least I feel I am not along.
The main problem in Australia, which I believe is a tragedy, is the fact the house bubble burst was avoided because of the mining bubble, related to China's bubble. Once this "shield" will be broken, I wouldn't want to be around. I don't want to be pessimist, but I believe that a wise nation should learn from other's mistake. The mining bubble is the source of inflation, and by consequence our lack of competitiveness in other sectors. What do you guys think? All opinions are constructive!
@Babys1306 Yes, that is a small part of the story. However, it is much more simple than that. The fundamental reason we have not had a significant down turn earlier is because credit never really dried up. All asset bubbles are credit driven, when this flow contracts, prices fall. With property, it is never an overnight phenomenon, i.e. 10% drop in 1 month.
@AussieAustrianBlog So, I definitely know that it's such a general, simplistic question, but a lot is NOT said nowadays about the state of economic fundamentals in Australia. Do you see a major downturn in the Oz economy? Do you think much of it will depend on our mining industry, commodity prices etc, or we're going to face difficulties no matter what happens with China's more or less important burst? Once again thanks for your first answer.
Thanks for a great blog, i hope you have the time to keep them coming. Its great to hear from an Austrian Aussie. Its encouraging to know that Steve Keen and I are not alone.
it is driven by australian big 4 banks. it all comes down how much the bank willing to lent you. most people i know borrow too much . i hope them well.
As long as bogans have to have their Mc Mansions to store all their crap they don't need, bought with money they don't have...nothing will change.
But how can bogans have an idea how the economy works....if they understood, they could have avoided, that the majority of their economy is foreign owned...
LOL
oh well..good luck with your shoddy houses....cheeply made and overprized so called houses...have a look how we handle it in Germany...houses are better made and affordable
People should buy a house as a place to live not an investment and buy one that is within their means, or have the common sense that they cannot afford to buy and rent.
Excellent Video. I'm an American living in Sydney, and its funny how history repeats itself across the globe. I recall in the 2000s, former classmates of mine with no savings and no credit history and with a single income were suddenly qualifying for massive loans for homes. "Homes never go down in price!" They said. Well sure enough, we all saw what happened next. I guess the temptation for cheap money is too much for people to resist.
Everyone keeps saying now is better to rent than pay mortage - and invest the savings - and wait till property correction. But what if you already own a house - i inherited a small 2x1- so i dont have a mortgage- but if i sold it to wait for the market to crash- i might lose half its value in the 4 years paying somewhere before it crashes?
So what should property owners do now? (i dont want to put cash in the bank as I think they r high risk of collapsing as they almost did in the 2008)
@DocBrewster The point i make to people is that there is nothing wrong with owning a home now if you can afford it. It's personal choice. Some people like to spend 200k on a sports car - that's fine if they can afford it. Where i think many will be in strife is when they purchased and over-extended themselves financially in the hope of some massive capital gains. So if you were late getting into the market (last few 3-4 years) then you would've been better off renting and investing the diff.
@DocBrewster sell your properties and buy gold and silver..you will experience untold wealth when SHTF . silver&gold is so cheap compared to what it will be in the future..we the looming collapse of the US dollar .people will rush to commodities and safe havens..gold&silver has been around for thousands of years and will still around for much more..i recommend reading the book by mike maloney investing in gold&silver.
Good video mate, hope to see more. It amazes me how so many Aussies do not see whats coming, even despite warnings to Australia from the IMF housing prices are way to high and i see many people getting burnt... Its coming in fact i think its here now.
I was recently amazed to find out that about a QUARTER (!!) of Aussies live alone.
No wonder there's a "shortage", when so many of us take up so much space.
I think when the collapse comes, suddenly these people will opt to move out and share a house, or move back with their parents, rent out a room etc - which will make rental prices plumment.
This will also translate into more buyers choosing to RENT instead of BUY - making house prices fall even more.
@LibertyDownUnder I agree. I've got the persons per dwellings figures and that has been falling steadily. Also think of all the investment properties, holiday homes as well.
people who wouldnt normally be given loans are always given loans, no matter what the financial climate is. what happens? they default. fact of life. another thing: property value has risen on average, every year for at least 2000 years. so if your looking at a 30 year mortgage, youre still probably quite safe.Lets look at say, the past 200 years un australia..if history is anything to go by, i think we are all in the clear... you worry about interest rates, in the long run, no one cares.
@Sloc1982 Loans have been extended to people who wouldn't normally get it as more credit becomes available and at a lower cost. Now they're tightening standards, therefore your point that people who wouldn't normally get loans always get them no matter the climate is false. I've worked in the finance industry and know first hand. What data do you have for the last 2000 years? I know the properties rise with inflation (the long term trend). Prices rise and they fall, returning to the trend...
@Sloc1982 ...all it means is that our purchasing power due to inflation has been eroded, ie, you need more money to buy the same thing. This is not real wealth, but an illusion of it due to the nominal values increasing as the money supply increases. Interest rates aren't the underlying issue, rather the increase in money supply which effects rates. When credit growth contracts, then we'll have issues. Prices have fallen in the past in Australia and will again. Property is over valued now.
Very good video. Just a small note. Interest rates are a blunt instrument, and the RBA has little control of cyclical and asset bubbles created by the Aussie's love affair for leveraged housing - and I believe the responsible catalyst is the stimulus provided by the Federal Government, as opposed to the Reserve Board - by way of tax funded incentives. I think money flow has actually been reasonably regulated by the RBA considering the CRB dip in 2007. Doesnt help that CPI is rubbish 2 begin with
@prana8 The RBA has alot of control over the money supply, which is the main factor affecting prices and asset bubbles. Without the money pumping a bubble couldn't exist. The RBA decreases interest rates by inceasing the money supply. The money supply has been increasing in Australia. Don't use the CPI a leading indicator, rather pay attention to the money supply. It always fuels asset bubbles, has done throughout history. Incentives are a relatively minor issue.
One other thing...I haven't got the figures here for myself, but you can find them if you dig around the ABS website. We are currently building more house's year by year to 2.6 immigrants that immigrate to Australia.
Hi Chris, good blog it's a shame there aren't other people in Australia who are aware there is another school of thought for economics. Just thought I'd mention about the housing shortage myth you may of missed. There is no housing shortage, we have an average of 2.6 people per dwelling in Australia, a far cry from a shortage. Even the US at the height of their bubble had there's at around 2.5.
The government won't allow prices to fall and thus deflation. The current cash rate is high enough to allow downward manipulation of housing prices and given the unstable world economic environment, I doubt rates will go up further... I also believe that over the last 20 years, the Australian (and world) governments have had a direct interest in pushing up housing prices to ensure baby boomers are self funded. This has been done by tax incentives (capital gains etc) and government grants.
@ozwasp The government cannot not "allow" prices to fall. When the growth in credit retracts (what caused the bubble & boom disappears), then prices will fall, irrespective of what the government tries. We can see how in the U.S. and Japan, governments have been futile in propping up asset price bubbles. Rates do not necessarily promote credit growth if lenders don't lend. I disagree with your baby boomers comment also. Asset bubbles are a manifestation of poor central bank and govt policy.
@AussieAustrianBlog You can disagree all you like with my baby boomers comment, but the evidence shows housing prices were being supported from the late 80s... One of the problems with your theories is that is does take into consideration outside factors - ie quantitative easing... We are not the US or Japan and with a heavy dose of inflation for a few years, prices will be back to their long term average. So this is why I say renting is better now than buying.
@ozwasp You believe the government is supporting baby boomers via ensuring high house prices at the expense of younger generations or those with low incomes? Are rising prices a good thing for an economy? Most people want goods and services to get cheaper. We have massive inflation, that is, increase in the money supply. This has manifested itself into price inflation that we are seeing in the CPI and in assets such as housing. We are a great % above the "long-term average" re house prices.
@AussieAustrianBlog What I do think is that governments around the world realised they wouldn't be able to support baby boomers in retirement quite sometime ago... I heard a while back we are about 25% above our long term average in house prices and the average increase in house prices was 3% above inflation - therefore you could expect prices to stagnate for 7 years or so.... Inflation will be exported from the US, by their quantitative easing programs - I think we're in a rerun on the 1970s
@ozwasp I doubt this is the reason government wants higher house prices, though it may have been expressed by some, but i don't know. However, regardless of government intentions, the cause of higher prices remains credit expansion and the effect is higher prices. It is the hallmark of all previous bubbles in history and unfortunately ends bad.
@ozwasp You're entitled to your opinion, but may i suggest you study asset bubbles and some basic Austrian Business Cycle Theory at mises.org. Or even search it on youtube. It is a good introduction into sound economics that will help you better understand things. Prices will fall guaranteed - economics 101. When? It depends on many factors/variables. Are prices falling? In many areas yes, but not a significant amount on aggregate.
@AussieAustrianBlog Unfortunately for your camp, you've been wrong for the last 2 years regarding deflation. While I don't disagree with there being a housing asset bubble, I do believe you and your camp have blinkers on and history shows this and will continue being the case... By the way, I am not some layman who has no knowledge of economics, as you may assume.
@ozwasp Please clarify your statement re my "camp" being wrong on deflation the last 2 years. My camp, the Austrian Economists, have not held the view of deflation. I fail to understand what we were wrong about. The Austrian school was the only camp that accurately foretold the economic crisis we are currently in as well as previous crisis, ie The Great Depression, Japan's recession, Asian crisis, tech bubble, housing bubble etc. The Austrian camp has been vindicated time and time again.
You must have heard of the saying "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain insolvent"?? The truth is Austrian economics would have been calling the GFC from 2003 onwards, missing the run up to it. So it's fair to call things as they happen, as there are too many influencing factors that come into play... In your theory, you're calling for a depression etc, while the reality of the situation will most likely be extremely different
@ozwasp Our theory (Austrian Business Cycle Theory) explains quite clearly what causes things like the current crisis. Austrians are constantly talking about the consequences of central bank policy etc. It is no feat for us to say "we were right." The writing was on the wall, so to speak. We don't advocate predicting exact time frames due to all the variables in play amongst other things, hence why we don't support scientific modelling etc. I'll post a video addressing your posts next week.
oh and one more thing have you heard of Steven Keen's debtwatch? I'm not sure what kind of economic's he believes in, but he sure is on our bandwagon.
@theaustrianview I have seen Steven Keen, i don't agree with all his economic views (he's not an Austrian economist). He skirts around the real cause of the bubble always referring to debt, which is a huge underlying part of the problem, money is debt for the most part. But an Austrian would phrase things differently, focusing on the fact that it is an increase in the pool of funds/credit expansion/inflation that is the fundamental problem, ie RBA & govt policy, that creates booms & busts.
Hey Chris, great to see a fellow Austrian around. Just wondered if went to uni at all and if you did what did you study? My channel is full of angry austrians on the american news, check it out for a laugh if you like.
@theaustrianview Thanks for the comments. I actually studied business and marketing at Uni, but have studied economics steadily for the past 5 years...more so now that ever. I'll be sure to checkout your vids.
Chris enjoyed your post unfortunately it will fall on deaf years as everybody in OZ knows property prices can only ever go up... Something you may wish to ponder... Try as I do to warn friends around the BBQ I am seen as crazy for not jumping on board the property bandwagon ... Regrettably a lot of people who can least afford it are going to get hurt first... 1990 interest rates were 17% today at 7% Oz rate is comparable to a 22.5% rate in 1990
@dpm5964 Thanks for your comment. I know i hold the minority view. Basically, i want to go 'on the record' with my views and hope to encourage some debate.
If there is too few houses to go around....the price goes up. At the same time there is pressure to build more houses. If so, the current houses that are valued at the current prices are under threat from new houses being built. So if you're an investor, I would sell up quick before a building boom comes.
o0POSH0o 1 week ago
Great video! A few people i know borrow so much now are paying their mortgages then live below their need,.now hanging on to their jobs that they hate. Thank you for your video, at least I feel I am not along.
mysupermaltese 1 month ago
The main problem in Australia, which I believe is a tragedy, is the fact the house bubble burst was avoided because of the mining bubble, related to China's bubble. Once this "shield" will be broken, I wouldn't want to be around. I don't want to be pessimist, but I believe that a wise nation should learn from other's mistake. The mining bubble is the source of inflation, and by consequence our lack of competitiveness in other sectors. What do you guys think? All opinions are constructive!
Babys1306 2 months ago
@Babys1306 Yes, that is a small part of the story. However, it is much more simple than that. The fundamental reason we have not had a significant down turn earlier is because credit never really dried up. All asset bubbles are credit driven, when this flow contracts, prices fall. With property, it is never an overnight phenomenon, i.e. 10% drop in 1 month.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 month ago
@AussieAustrianBlog So, I definitely know that it's such a general, simplistic question, but a lot is NOT said nowadays about the state of economic fundamentals in Australia. Do you see a major downturn in the Oz economy? Do you think much of it will depend on our mining industry, commodity prices etc, or we're going to face difficulties no matter what happens with China's more or less important burst? Once again thanks for your first answer.
Babys1306 1 month ago
nice video, except house prices are still over the roof
charlie000111 3 months ago
Hi Chris, I suggest you look a little closer into fractional banking. You are incorrect in saying money is created by the banks.
gsaussie 4 months ago
@gsaussie Nope, Chris is right, banks do create money.
See mises.org/daily/4499 for a simple and straight-forward explanation on how this happens.
mfl002 4 months ago
well said buddy top work, explaining austrian economics to yuppies is so hard :/
winnah2314 8 months ago
picked up ur daily copy of the Financial Review 0:10?
why dont u subscribe to it and save money
tri400 10 months ago
@tri400 I am a subscriber to afr.com.au....not sure as to the point of your post
AussieAustrianBlog 10 months ago 2
Thanks for a great blog, i hope you have the time to keep them coming. Its great to hear from an Austrian Aussie. Its encouraging to know that Steve Keen and I are not alone.
mikfax 11 months ago
it is driven by australian big 4 banks. it all comes down how much the bank willing to lent you. most people i know borrow too much . i hope them well.
erictjie 11 months ago
it is driven by australian big 4 banks. it all comes down how much the bank lent you.
erictjie 11 months ago
As long as bogans have to have their Mc Mansions to store all their crap they don't need, bought with money they don't have...nothing will change.
But how can bogans have an idea how the economy works....if they understood, they could have avoided, that the majority of their economy is foreign owned...
LOL
oh well..good luck with your shoddy houses....cheeply made and overprized so called houses...have a look how we handle it in Germany...houses are better made and affordable
Navium 1 year ago
@Navium Explain your foreign ownership comment. I'm intrigued to know how that is a bad thing. Thx.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
People should buy a house as a place to live not an investment and buy one that is within their means, or have the common sense that they cannot afford to buy and rent.
Ross1062 1 year ago
where would you recommend i go to find out more about austrian economics? interwebs or books i read both!
TheJourneyAgent 1 year ago
Excellent Video. I'm an American living in Sydney, and its funny how history repeats itself across the globe. I recall in the 2000s, former classmates of mine with no savings and no credit history and with a single income were suddenly qualifying for massive loans for homes. "Homes never go down in price!" They said. Well sure enough, we all saw what happened next. I guess the temptation for cheap money is too much for people to resist.
kev3d 1 year ago
Everyone keeps saying now is better to rent than pay mortage - and invest the savings - and wait till property correction. But what if you already own a house - i inherited a small 2x1- so i dont have a mortgage- but if i sold it to wait for the market to crash- i might lose half its value in the 4 years paying somewhere before it crashes?
So what should property owners do now? (i dont want to put cash in the bank as I think they r high risk of collapsing as they almost did in the 2008)
DocBrewster 1 year ago
@DocBrewster The point i make to people is that there is nothing wrong with owning a home now if you can afford it. It's personal choice. Some people like to spend 200k on a sports car - that's fine if they can afford it. Where i think many will be in strife is when they purchased and over-extended themselves financially in the hope of some massive capital gains. So if you were late getting into the market (last few 3-4 years) then you would've been better off renting and investing the diff.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
@DocBrewster sell the house asap and buy silver!!!
TheJourneyAgent 1 year ago
@DocBrewster sell your properties and buy gold and silver..you will experience untold wealth when SHTF . silver&gold is so cheap compared to what it will be in the future..we the looming collapse of the US dollar .people will rush to commodities and safe havens..gold&silver has been around for thousands of years and will still around for much more..i recommend reading the book by mike maloney investing in gold&silver.
scatteredmunky 1 year ago
Good video mate, hope to see more. It amazes me how so many Aussies do not see whats coming, even despite warnings to Australia from the IMF housing prices are way to high and i see many people getting burnt... Its coming in fact i think its here now.
MilitiaHQ 1 year ago
I was recently amazed to find out that about a QUARTER (!!) of Aussies live alone.
No wonder there's a "shortage", when so many of us take up so much space.
I think when the collapse comes, suddenly these people will opt to move out and share a house, or move back with their parents, rent out a room etc - which will make rental prices plumment.
This will also translate into more buyers choosing to RENT instead of BUY - making house prices fall even more.
LibertyDownUnder 1 year ago
@LibertyDownUnder I agree. I've got the persons per dwellings figures and that has been falling steadily. Also think of all the investment properties, holiday homes as well.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
Front page of la.org.au
LibertyAustralia 1 year ago
@LibertyAustralia Thanks for posting! I follow your website closely...keep up the good work.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
people who wouldnt normally be given loans are always given loans, no matter what the financial climate is. what happens? they default. fact of life. another thing: property value has risen on average, every year for at least 2000 years. so if your looking at a 30 year mortgage, youre still probably quite safe.Lets look at say, the past 200 years un australia..if history is anything to go by, i think we are all in the clear... you worry about interest rates, in the long run, no one cares.
Sloc1982 1 year ago
@Sloc1982 Loans have been extended to people who wouldn't normally get it as more credit becomes available and at a lower cost. Now they're tightening standards, therefore your point that people who wouldn't normally get loans always get them no matter the climate is false. I've worked in the finance industry and know first hand. What data do you have for the last 2000 years? I know the properties rise with inflation (the long term trend). Prices rise and they fall, returning to the trend...
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
@Sloc1982 ...all it means is that our purchasing power due to inflation has been eroded, ie, you need more money to buy the same thing. This is not real wealth, but an illusion of it due to the nominal values increasing as the money supply increases. Interest rates aren't the underlying issue, rather the increase in money supply which effects rates. When credit growth contracts, then we'll have issues. Prices have fallen in the past in Australia and will again. Property is over valued now.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
Very good video. Just a small note. Interest rates are a blunt instrument, and the RBA has little control of cyclical and asset bubbles created by the Aussie's love affair for leveraged housing - and I believe the responsible catalyst is the stimulus provided by the Federal Government, as opposed to the Reserve Board - by way of tax funded incentives. I think money flow has actually been reasonably regulated by the RBA considering the CRB dip in 2007. Doesnt help that CPI is rubbish 2 begin with
prana8 1 year ago
@prana8 The RBA has alot of control over the money supply, which is the main factor affecting prices and asset bubbles. Without the money pumping a bubble couldn't exist. The RBA decreases interest rates by inceasing the money supply. The money supply has been increasing in Australia. Don't use the CPI a leading indicator, rather pay attention to the money supply. It always fuels asset bubbles, has done throughout history. Incentives are a relatively minor issue.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
Excellent video :o)
lokir 1 year ago
@lokir Thanks.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
One other thing...I haven't got the figures here for myself, but you can find them if you dig around the ABS website. We are currently building more house's year by year to 2.6 immigrants that immigrate to Australia.
AustralianGoldBuyer 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
Hi Chris, good blog it's a shame there aren't other people in Australia who are aware there is another school of thought for economics. Just thought I'd mention about the housing shortage myth you may of missed. There is no housing shortage, we have an average of 2.6 people per dwelling in Australia, a far cry from a shortage. Even the US at the height of their bubble had there's at around 2.5.
AustralianGoldBuyer 1 year ago
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AustralianGoldBuyer 1 year ago
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AustralianGoldBuyer 1 year ago
this is what i've been waiting for! an australian peter schiff.
samm1809 1 year ago
@samm1809 I'm far from it!!
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
@AussieAustrianBlog in opinion? or are you trying be modest?
samm1809 1 year ago
@samm1809 The latter :)
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
The government won't allow prices to fall and thus deflation. The current cash rate is high enough to allow downward manipulation of housing prices and given the unstable world economic environment, I doubt rates will go up further... I also believe that over the last 20 years, the Australian (and world) governments have had a direct interest in pushing up housing prices to ensure baby boomers are self funded. This has been done by tax incentives (capital gains etc) and government grants.
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp The government cannot not "allow" prices to fall. When the growth in credit retracts (what caused the bubble & boom disappears), then prices will fall, irrespective of what the government tries. We can see how in the U.S. and Japan, governments have been futile in propping up asset price bubbles. Rates do not necessarily promote credit growth if lenders don't lend. I disagree with your baby boomers comment also. Asset bubbles are a manifestation of poor central bank and govt policy.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
@AussieAustrianBlog You can disagree all you like with my baby boomers comment, but the evidence shows housing prices were being supported from the late 80s... One of the problems with your theories is that is does take into consideration outside factors - ie quantitative easing... We are not the US or Japan and with a heavy dose of inflation for a few years, prices will be back to their long term average. So this is why I say renting is better now than buying.
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp You believe the government is supporting baby boomers via ensuring high house prices at the expense of younger generations or those with low incomes? Are rising prices a good thing for an economy? Most people want goods and services to get cheaper. We have massive inflation, that is, increase in the money supply. This has manifested itself into price inflation that we are seeing in the CPI and in assets such as housing. We are a great % above the "long-term average" re house prices.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
@AussieAustrianBlog What I do think is that governments around the world realised they wouldn't be able to support baby boomers in retirement quite sometime ago... I heard a while back we are about 25% above our long term average in house prices and the average increase in house prices was 3% above inflation - therefore you could expect prices to stagnate for 7 years or so.... Inflation will be exported from the US, by their quantitative easing programs - I think we're in a rerun on the 1970s
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp I doubt this is the reason government wants higher house prices, though it may have been expressed by some, but i don't know. However, regardless of government intentions, the cause of higher prices remains credit expansion and the effect is higher prices. It is the hallmark of all previous bubbles in history and unfortunately ends bad.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
I doubt prices will fall, but most likely stagnate for a few years - be better off renting now than buying
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp You're entitled to your opinion, but may i suggest you study asset bubbles and some basic Austrian Business Cycle Theory at mises.org. Or even search it on youtube. It is a good introduction into sound economics that will help you better understand things. Prices will fall guaranteed - economics 101. When? It depends on many factors/variables. Are prices falling? In many areas yes, but not a significant amount on aggregate.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
@AussieAustrianBlog Unfortunately for your camp, you've been wrong for the last 2 years regarding deflation. While I don't disagree with there being a housing asset bubble, I do believe you and your camp have blinkers on and history shows this and will continue being the case... By the way, I am not some layman who has no knowledge of economics, as you may assume.
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp Please clarify your statement re my "camp" being wrong on deflation the last 2 years. My camp, the Austrian Economists, have not held the view of deflation. I fail to understand what we were wrong about. The Austrian school was the only camp that accurately foretold the economic crisis we are currently in as well as previous crisis, ie The Great Depression, Japan's recession, Asian crisis, tech bubble, housing bubble etc. The Austrian camp has been vindicated time and time again.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
You must have heard of the saying "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain insolvent"?? The truth is Austrian economics would have been calling the GFC from 2003 onwards, missing the run up to it. So it's fair to call things as they happen, as there are too many influencing factors that come into play... In your theory, you're calling for a depression etc, while the reality of the situation will most likely be extremely different
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp it was meant to read 'solvent' not 'insolvent'
ozwasp 1 year ago
@ozwasp Our theory (Austrian Business Cycle Theory) explains quite clearly what causes things like the current crisis. Austrians are constantly talking about the consequences of central bank policy etc. It is no feat for us to say "we were right." The writing was on the wall, so to speak. We don't advocate predicting exact time frames due to all the variables in play amongst other things, hence why we don't support scientific modelling etc. I'll post a video addressing your posts next week.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
oh and one more thing have you heard of Steven Keen's debtwatch? I'm not sure what kind of economic's he believes in, but he sure is on our bandwagon.
theaustrianview 1 year ago
@theaustrianview I have seen Steven Keen, i don't agree with all his economic views (he's not an Austrian economist). He skirts around the real cause of the bubble always referring to debt, which is a huge underlying part of the problem, money is debt for the most part. But an Austrian would phrase things differently, focusing on the fact that it is an increase in the pool of funds/credit expansion/inflation that is the fundamental problem, ie RBA & govt policy, that creates booms & busts.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
Hey Chris, great to see a fellow Austrian around. Just wondered if went to uni at all and if you did what did you study? My channel is full of angry austrians on the american news, check it out for a laugh if you like.
theaustrianview 1 year ago
@theaustrianview Thanks for the comments. I actually studied business and marketing at Uni, but have studied economics steadily for the past 5 years...more so now that ever. I'll be sure to checkout your vids.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
Thanks Chris, really enjoyed this post.
gbvb79 1 year ago
Chris enjoyed your post unfortunately it will fall on deaf years as everybody in OZ knows property prices can only ever go up... Something you may wish to ponder... Try as I do to warn friends around the BBQ I am seen as crazy for not jumping on board the property bandwagon ... Regrettably a lot of people who can least afford it are going to get hurt first... 1990 interest rates were 17% today at 7% Oz rate is comparable to a 22.5% rate in 1990
dpm5964 1 year ago
@dpm5964 Thanks for your comment. I know i hold the minority view. Basically, i want to go 'on the record' with my views and hope to encourage some debate.
AussieAustrianBlog 1 year ago
you got one thick Adelaide accent there buddy
Mollarooza 1 year ago